China’s military buildup makes US increasingly vulnerable, DOD says

China’s military is capable of directly threatening the security of Americans, the Pentagon warned in a new assessment released Tuesday, as Beijing moves to accelerate the growth of its nuclear arsenal and aircraft carrier fleet.

The Department of Defense’s latest annual report on the People’s Liberation Army described China’s recent buildup as “historic.” It estimates that China will add six aircraft carriers by 2035, bringing its fleet to nine, just behind America’s 11.

And while China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads remained in the “low 600s” at the end of 2024, “reflecting a slower rate of production when compared to previous years,” Beijing is on track to surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030, according to the report. China also advanced its early-warning counterstrike capabilities, which would enable retaliatory strikes before an incoming warhead can detonate.

China’s President Xi Jinping has framed these advancements as part of his “Chinese dream” to build a “world-class” military — essentially to challenge the United States’ global dominance — by 2049.

China’s announced defense budget rose by an inflation-adjusted 5.2% from 2023 to 2024, according to the report. Still, the Pentagon warned that there is “broad consensus” that China’s announced budget doesn’t contain all of its defense spending.

Meanwhile, China has deepened its strategic partnership with Russia — “almost certainly driven by a shared interest in countering the United States,” the report stated. Yet the partnership remains hindered by a persistent “mutual distrust of each other.” Xi, who has instructed his armed forces to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027, has drawn lessons from Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine, including operational strategies, modernizing weaponry and avoiding protracted conflict.

The stark military assessment comes amid signs of renewed diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing. President Donald Trump said last month that he had accepted an invitation from Xi to visit China in April, and invited the Chinese leader for a state visit later next year.

“Our relationship with China is extremely strong,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Now we can set our sights on the big picture.”

“We agreed that it is important that we communicate often, which I look forward to doing,” Trump added.

Tanya Noury is a reporter for Military Times and Defense News, with coverage focusing on the White House and Pentagon.

美国五角大楼周二发布的一份新评估报告警告称，随着北京加快发展其核武库和航空母舰舰队，中国的军事力量有能力直接威胁美国人的安全。

美国国防部最新发布的关于中国人民解放军的年度报告将中国近期的军事建设描述为“历史性的”。报告估计，到2035年，中国将新增6艘航空母舰，使其舰队规模达到9艘，仅次于美国的11艘。

报告指出，尽管截至2024年底，中国的核弹头库存仍维持在“600枚左右”，“与往年相比生产速度有所放缓”，但北京有望在2030年前突破1000枚核弹头的库存。此外，中国还提升了其预警反击能力，使其能够在来袭核弹头引爆前进行报复性打击。

中国国家主席习近平将这些进步视为其“中国梦”的一部分，即到 2049 年建成一支“世界一流”的军队，从本质上挑战美国的全球主导地位。

报告显示，中国公布的2024年国防预算经通胀调整后增长了5.2%。不过，五角大楼警告称，各方普遍认为中国公布的预算并未包含其全部国防开支。

与此同时，报告指出，中国深化了与俄罗斯的战略伙伴关系——“几乎可以肯定，这是出于共同对抗美国的利益驱动”。然而，双方持续存在的“互不信任”仍然阻碍着这一伙伴关系的发展。习近平已指示其军队做好在2027年前收复台湾的准备，并从俄罗斯在乌克兰的挫败中吸取了教训，包括作战策略、武器现代化以及避免旷日持久的冲突。

这份措辞严厉的军事评估出台之际，正值华盛顿和北京之间外交接触出现复苏迹象。唐纳德·特朗普总统上个月表示，他已接受习近平主席的邀请，将于4月访问中国，并邀请习近平主席于明年晚些时候对中国进行国事访问。

特朗普在Truth Social上写道：“我们与中国的关系非常牢固。现在我们可以着眼于大局了。”

特朗普补充说：“我们一致认为，经常沟通非常重要，我期待着这样做。”

Tanya Noury 是《军事时报》和《防务新闻》的记者，她的报道主要集中在白宫和五角大楼。