The 2026 primaries taught us a lot about what’s to come in the midterms

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The 2026 primary season featured the rise of democratic socialist and anti-Israel candidates on the left, a host of incumbents losing primaries, President Donald Trump getting revenge but also seeing his hold on his base waver, and a bare-knuckle redistricting push by Republicans that could reverberate for years to come.

All of it set the stage for a midterm election in which Democrats seem to have a chance to flip both the House (which appears likely) and the Senate (which appears possible), thanks to Trump’s historic unpopularity.

But before we turn completely to that, let’s reflect on some takeaways from the past six and a half months of nominating contests, which culminated in the Delaware primary Tuesday night, and what they could tell us about what’s to come.

Here’s what we learned.

Trump’s standing with his base is weaker than ever right now , and it showed.

In total, 10 Trump-backed candidates lost GOP nominating contests for Congress or statewide office – including five candidates for governor and six candidates in the month of August alone.

The 10 losses is equal to the combined total defeats of Trump-backed candidates across the 2018, 2020 and 2024 elections, per a CNN review of Ballotpedia data , though it was slightly less than in 2022 (12). Of course, back in 2022 there was some question about whether Trump could make a political comeback.

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

Trump’s overall endorsement record is strong, and virtually any candidate would want his backing in a primary. But it was far from a silver bullet. And that reinforces the idea that voters on the right aren’t taking their cues from him as much as they used to.

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While some Trump-backed candidates lost, he generally did well when he really went after people in high-profile ways.

He ousted Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky after the congressman spearheaded the push to release the Epstein files and broke with him on several other issues. He knocked off Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, one of seven Republicans to vote to convict him at his second impeachment trial. He took down 6 of 8 Indiana GOP state senators who killed a redistricting map he really wanted. And he ousted Sen. John Cornyn of Texas in a very high-profile primary runoff.

Self-described democratic socialists are still a small proportion of the candidates Democrats nominated – less than 1% , per a Brookings Institution study. But they’re winning nominations in bigger and bigger races .

After New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson’s wins in 2025, democratic socialists defeated three House incumbents and are on course for their largest congressional contingent ever – possibly in the double-digits.

And while they largely only won nominations in heavily blue districts, they were nominated in a swing congressional district in Michigan and for Senate in Florida. That doesn’t even include Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed , who shares some of the movement’s sensibilities but doesn’t call himself a democratic socialist.

Democratic socialists are also expected to win the Washington, DC, mayor’s race and could win in Los Angeles too.

They did come up short in a much-watched primary for Wisconsin governor, where state Assemblywoman Francesca Hong lost after the Democratic establishment fought hard to prevent her nomination – and showed it still had some influence. But the fact that Hong got that close to victory was pretty remarkable, in and of itself.

Despite Republicans lifting socialism up as their big 2026 boogeyman, the results and recent polling suggest Americans aren’t terribly worried about electing the right kinds of democratic socialists.

In fact, recent polls have shown voters are actually more concerned about electing MAGA candidates than ones who identify with socialism. And a New York Times/Siena College poll this week showed just 30% of likely voters said they would prefer not to vote for a democratic socialist.

While there has been lots of focus democratic socialists and El-Sayed possibly costing Democrats important races, he’s very much the exception. By and large, Democrats appear to have recruited and nominated candidates who fit their areas well and appeal to voters personally – including Senate candidates like Josh Turek in Iowa, former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska and former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina.

A recent CNN review showed the Democratic Senate nominee was more popular than the Republican in every top race except Michigan .

Future primaries are apparently going to be moving targets, thanks to Republicans’ move to start a redistricting arms race this election cycle.

While we had seen mid-decade redistricting before, Republicans ramped it up in a way we simply haven’t seen in modern history – all to draw just a handful of additional seats that favor their side. That caused Democrats to respond in kind where they could try to offset those GOP gains.

All told, Republicans netted as many as nine seats that are now favorable to them – which could matter in a close battle for the House majority. (If Democrats have a good year, though, they could win a number of those seats.)

The Supreme Court also ruled in a way that makes it easier for Republicans to eliminate majority-Black districts in the South, which launched another wave of redistricting efforts and could significantly reduce Black representation in Congress.

What this likely means is that, absent some kind of agreement between the parties or legislation, the two sides are just going to keep redrawing these maps whenever they can and whenever there is an advantage to be gleaned. That will likely lead to more upheaval and fewer competitive races in the years to come.

The Democratic base has spent the last couple years adopting a sharply critical view of Israel, and that figured significantly in some high-profile 2026 Democratic primaries.

Israel supporters didn’t lose all the races, but the issue emerged as a major one in a number of races, including El-Sayed’s narrow victory over Rep. Haley Stevens, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s win in the Democratic Senate primary, and the primary upsets of Reps. Adriano Espaillat and Dan Goldman of New York and Shri Thanedar of Michigan, among others.

Even in races where the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) helped a victorious candidate, its advertisements tellingly didn’t focus on the Middle East.

Trump has spent years seeing scandals bounce off him like he’s made of Teflon. But the 2026 primary season suggested he’s still unusual in that regard.

CJ Gunther/Getty Images/File

On the Democratic side, California governor candidate Eric Swalwell and Maine Senate nominee Graham Platner both dropped out in the face of sexual assault allegations that they denied. Across the aisle, Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales dropped out of his primary runoff amid revelations of an affair with a staffer who died by suicide, and Reps. Andy Ogles of Tennessee and Cory Mills of Florida lost primaries in part thanks to personal baggage.

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But Rep. Max Miller of Ohio remains on the ballot, despite ugly allegations from his ex-wife that emerged after he won his primary. And Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Cornyn in a primary runoff despite his own extensive baggage , including past criminal charges and an impeachment.

All have denied wrongdoing.

No fewer than 13 incumbents lost primaries for reelection to Congress – an unusually high number, historically speaking. They lost due to a variety of reasons, including anti-Israel sentiment, Trump’s revenge tour and districts being redrawn in ways that made it more difficult for incumbents.

But this dynamic also arguably showed up in statewide races, where voters didn’t seem to have much interest in elevating members of Congress. Most of those who sought promotions lost in those primaries , too.

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2026 年总统初选季的一大看点是左翼民主社会主义者和反以色列候选人的崛起，众多现任官员在初选中落败，唐纳德·特朗普总统成功复仇，但同时也发现他对基本盘的掌控力有所动摇，共和党人发起了一场不择手段的选区重划运动，其影响可能会持续多年。

所有这一切都为中期选举奠定了基础，由于特朗普的支持率创历史新低，民主党似乎有机会赢得众议院（可能性很大）和参议院（可能性也很大）。

但在我们完全转向这一点之前，让我们回顾一下过去六个半月的提名竞选的一些经验教训，这些经验教训最终在周二晚上的特拉华州初选中达到高潮，以及它们可以告诉我们未来会发生什么。

我们学到了以下几点。

特朗普在其支持者中的支持率目前比以往任何时候都低，这一点显而易见。

总共有 10 位特朗普支持的候选人在共和党国会或州级公职提名竞选中落败——其中包括 5 位州长候选人和 6 位仅在 8 月份就落败的候选人。

根据CNN对Ballotpedia数据的分析，这10场败绩与特朗普支持的候选人在2018年、2020年和2024年大选中的总败绩持平，尽管略低于2022年的12场。当然，在2022年，人们也曾质疑特朗普能否东山再起。

朱莉娅·德马雷·尼金森/美联社

特朗普的整体支持率很高，几乎所有候选人都希望在初选中获得他的支持。但这远非万能灵药。这也印证了右翼选民不再像以前那样依赖他的观点。

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在就开始了。

每周，亚伦·布莱克都会以犀利的分析，拨开政治迷雾，深入剖析可能决定国会控制权的选情、候选人和趋势。订阅《20/26 视野》周刊，了解今年中期选举的最新动态。

虽然一些特朗普支持的候选人落败，但当他以高调的方式真正攻击对手时，他通常表现良好。

在肯塔基州众议员托马斯·马西带头推动公开爱泼斯坦档案，并在其他几个问题上与他意见相左之后，他击败了马西。他还击败了路易斯安那州参议员比尔·卡西迪，卡西迪是七名在第二次弹劾审判中投票支持定罪的共和党人之一。他击败了印第安纳州八名共和党州参议员中的六名，这些人否决了他极力想要的选区重划方案。此外，他还在一场备受瞩目的初选决胜轮中击败了德克萨斯州参议员约翰·科宁。

根据布鲁金斯学会的一项研究，自称民主社会主义者的候选人在民主党提名的候选人中仍然只占很小一部分——不到1%。但他们在越来越重要的竞选中赢得了提名。

继纽约市长佐兰·马姆达尼和西雅图市长凯蒂·威尔逊在 2025 年赢得大选后，民主社会主义者击败了三位众议院现任议员，并有望迎来有史以来规模最大的国会席位——可能达到两位数。

虽然他们大多只在民主党占绝对优势的选区获得提名，但他们也在密歇根州的一个摇摆选区和佛罗里达州的参议院选区获得了提名。这还不包括密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，他虽然认同该运动的一些理念，但并不自称是民主社会主义者。

民主社会主义者预计也将赢得华盛顿特区市长选举，并且有可能在洛杉矶也获胜。

在备受瞩目的威斯康星州州长初选中，​​他们最终落败。州议员弗朗西斯卡·洪在民主党建制派的竭力阻挠下落败，这表明建制派仍然拥有一定的影响力。但洪能够如此接近胜利本身就相当了不起。

尽管共和党人将社会主义描绘成他们 2026 年大选的头号威胁，但选举结果和最近的民意调查表明，美国人并不太担心选出合适的民主社会主义者。

事实上，近期民调显示，选民们更关心的是选举“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的候选人，而不是那些认同社会主义的候选人。本周《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的一项民调显示，只有30%的潜在选民表示，他们宁愿不投票给民主社会主义者。

尽管外界对民主社会主义者和埃尔-赛义德可能导致民主党在重要选举中失利的关注度很高，但他只是个例外。总的来说，民主党似乎已经招募并提名了与各自选区契合、且能吸引选民的候选人——包括爱荷华州的参议员候选人乔什·图雷克、阿拉斯加州的前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉以及北卡罗来纳州的前州长罗伊·库珀。

CNN最近的一项调查显示，除了密歇根州之外，民主党参议员候选人在所有主要选区的支持率都高于共和党候选人。

由于共和党在本选举周期中发起了一场选区重划竞赛，未来的初选显然将充满变数。

虽然我们之前也见过类似的选区重划，但共和党人这次的力度之大，在现代历史上前所未见——而这一切仅仅是为了增加几个有利于他们的席位。这导致民主党人采取了相应的应对措施，试图抵消共和党的这些胜利。

总的来说，共和党净增了多达九个对他们有利的席位——这在争夺众议院多数席位的激烈角逐中可能至关重要。（不过，如果民主党今年表现出色，他们也可能赢得其中的一些席位。）

最高法院的裁决也使得共和党人更容易取消南方以黑人为主的选区，这引发了新一轮的选区重划浪潮，并可能大幅减少黑人在国会的代表人数。

这很可能意味着，如果双方无法达成某种协议或出台相关法律，那么双方就会不断修改选区地图，只要有利可图，就会这样做。这很可能导致未来几年政治动荡加剧，竞争性选举减少。

过去几年，民主党的基本盘对以色列采取了非常批判的态度，这在2026年一些备受瞩目的民主党初选中产生了重大影响。

以色列支持者并没有输掉所有选举，但这个问题在许多选举中都成为了一个主要问题，包括埃尔-赛义德险胜众议员海莉·史蒂文斯，明尼苏达州副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根在民主党参议员初选中获胜，以及纽约州众议员阿德里亚诺·埃斯帕伊拉特和丹·戈德曼、密歇根州众议员什里·塔内达尔等人在初选中意外获胜。

即使在美国以色列公共事务委员会 (AIPAC) 帮助候选人获胜的竞选中，其广告也明显没有聚焦于中东。

多年来，丑闻似乎都对他无效，就像他刀枪不入一样。但2026年的总统初选表明，在这方面他仍然很特殊。

CJ Gunther/Getty Images/文件

民主党方面，加州州长候选人埃里克·斯瓦尔韦尔和缅因州参议员候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳都因性侵指控而退选，但他们否认了这些指控。共和党方面，德克萨斯州众议员托尼·冈萨雷斯因与一名自杀身亡的工作人员有染而被曝出婚外情，随后退出了党内初选决胜轮；田纳西州众议员安迪·奥格尔斯和佛罗里达州众议员科里·米尔斯也因个人丑闻等原因在初选中落败。

Allison Bailey/法新社/中东图片社/盖蒂图片社

尽管俄亥俄州众议员马克斯·米勒在赢得初选后，其前妻提出了诸多不堪的指控，但他仍然保留着候选人资格。此外，德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿也在初选决胜轮中击败了科宁，尽管他自身也背负着诸多包袱，包括过去的刑事指控和弹劾案。

所有人都否认自己有任何不当行为。

至少有13名现任国会议员在初选中落败，无缘连任——从历史角度来看，这是一个异常高的数字。他们落败的原因多种多样，包括反以色列情绪、特朗普的报复性访问以及选区重新划分后对现任议员不利等。

但这种趋势也体现在全州范围的选举中，选民似乎对提升国会议员的职位兴趣不大。大多数寻求晋升的人也在初选中落败。