Netanyahu calculates upsetting Trump is his least-bad option

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On tricky issues, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s preference is to kick the can down the road. If he must take a position, he likes to include a twist of ambiguity, some wiggle room, just in case things get hairy later. Not this time, though, on the subject of US President Donald Trump’s roadmap for progressing the Gaza ceasefire agreement.

“I wish to be precise: Israel does not accept the 15-point document,” Netanyahu said during opening remarks at Sunday’s weekly Israeli Cabinet meeting.

In fact, he went on to say it twice.

“I have heard people saying: ‘You didn’t say it.’ So here I am saying it again: Israel does not accept the 15-point document.”

Potentially a risky move because it could draw the ire of Trump.

The US president – more desperate than ever for a win, as his Iran folly looks increasingly like handing him an L – reinvested in Gaza 10 days ago, declaring that his Board of Peace had reached a “historic agreement” with Hamas for its complete disarmament. The board’s top envoy, Nickolay Mladenov, went on to explain carefully on X that decommissioning would need to take place “in lockstep” with Israeli troop withdrawal, suggesting a phased process by which the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would pull back in stages from positions inside Gaza, as Hamas turned in its arms.

Any lingering hope that Netanyahu could be convinced to take part in such an endeavor now looks for the birds.

“The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed. And when I say the disarming of Hamas, it means heavy weaponry, lighter weaponry, all weaponry. And we are talking about genuine disarmament, not fictitious disarmament,” the Israeli leader said Sunday.

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Trump announces Gaza breakthrough but uncertainty remains

As of Sunday afternoon, Trump was still keeping his own counsel, beyond a Truth Social post quoting former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying she supported his Gaza plan. Mladenov meanwhile went on Israel’s Channel 12 Sunday evening, appearing to suggest that some sort of phased process might still be the plan, but also seeming to make clear Hamas would need to make the first move.

“Nobody is required to do anything, least of all Israel, before we actually have verified steps on the ground. If there is verified decommissioning of weapons, that they are taken away from the factions and stored and ultimately rendered unusable, Israel then withdraws from Gaza,” Mladenov said.

Of course, there are skeptics everywhere in this arena, not least concerning the two main protagonists. Both Israel and Hamas have a shared interest in making sure the other side gets the blame for any failure.

So, Hamas’s response to Netanyahu’s remarks was quite sober and measured. It said it remained committed to the roadmap, adding that it expected the Board of Peace to “exert pressure” on Netanyahu to abide by it.

In truth, there are plenty who doubt Hamas ever intends to give up all its weapons, which serve as the plainest manifestation of its leadership position in the Palestinian resistance and act as a guarantee of its own survival in the face of any internal instability inside Gaza. The group has made plenty of enemies during its almost 20 years in charge of the enclave.

But regardless of any lack of confidence in Hamas’ true intentions, in Mladenov’s faith in the ability to verify weapons decommissioning, or indeed Netanyahu’s own willingness to order any troop withdrawals, why poke Trump so publicly in the eye? Surely, Netanyahu, the master strategist, as his many acolytes regard him, could have done it with a bit more finesse?

The reason – unsurprisingly perhaps – is Israel’s general election. It is less than 12 weeks away, and the polls suggest he remains in trouble. It was time – unequivocally – to speak to the voters.

All Israeli prime ministers must build a governing coalition made up of several parties. Netanyahu, as others have remarked, likes to build his next coalition ahead of the election rather than after it.

When the counting is over, he will need his far-right allies to join him if he has any chance of remaining in charge, so he was stung by their very public criticism of the roadmap, as well as calls to reverse a previous Israeli Cabinet decision to approve the deployment of an International Stabilization Force for Gaza, which was meant to oversee security in a small pilot project in the territory. Netanyahu had quietly approved reconstruction work could begin in the pilot area, Army radio reported Sunday, which just looked like further weakness.

And yet, it would be a mistake to see this only as pandering to the far-right. The vast majority of Israeli voters, while still favorable toward Trump, believe the US president is profoundly mistaken if he believes Israel should have its freedom to do what it likes in Gaza curtailed in any way.

None of Netanyahu’s main challengers, for instance, is likely to pick up Mladenov’s attempt to appeal to Israel’s self-interest during his Sunday TV interview, when he said that only full implementation of the Board of Peace’s plan could guarantee there would never be another mass attack like the one in 2023 on Israeli communities living next to Gaza.

“If we end up with arguments about this and that, and delaying tactics, I can assure you that the only alternative then is another process of rearming of Hamas and increasing the risk of another October 7th,” the senior envoy said.

Truly, it would be a surprise if Gadi Eisenkott, Naftali Bennett, or many other would-be Israeli prime ministers believed there were many votes on that platform.

A US Board of Peace official meanwhile sought to play up Israel’s military restraint in recent days in Gaza, as well as a change in targeting policy.

“We are seeing co-operation behind the scenes,” the official offered.

Cold comfort for Gaza’s two million residents, who remain shut out of the conversation and all but powerless to determine their fate.

Eugenia Yosef and Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report.

伊利亚·叶菲莫维奇/法新社/盖蒂图片社

在棘手问题上，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡倾向于拖延。如果他必须表明立场，他喜欢留下一些模棱两可的余地，以防日后事态恶化。然而，这一次，在美国总统特朗普推进加沙停火协议的路线图问题上，他却并非如此。

“我想明确一点：以色列不接受这份15点文件，”内塔尼亚胡在周日以色列每周例行内阁会议的开幕致辞中说道。

事实上，他后来又说了两遍。

“我听到有人说：‘你没说过。’所以我在这里再说一遍：以色列不接受这份15点文件。”

这可能是一个冒险的举动，因为它可能会激怒特朗普。

美国总统比以往任何时候都更渴望胜利，因为他在伊朗问题上的愚蠢举动越来越像是要让他自取灭亡。10天前，他重新将目光投向加沙，宣布其领导的和平委员会已与哈马斯达成一项“历史性协议”，哈马斯将彻底解除武装。该委员会的首席特使尼古拉·姆拉德诺夫随后在X网站上详细解释说，解除武装需要与以色列军队的撤离“同步进行”，这意味着以色列国防军将分阶段从加沙地带撤出，而哈马斯则交出武器。

现在，任何认为内塔尼亚胡会被说服参与此类活动的残存希望都已破灭。

“在哈马斯解除武装之前，以色列国防军不会进行任何撤军行动。我所说的解除哈马斯的武装，指的是重型武器、轻型武器，所有武器。我们谈的是真正的解除武装，而不是虚假的解除武装。”以色列领导人周日表示。

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特朗普宣布加沙局势取得突破，但仍存在不确定性。

截至周日下午，特朗普仍保持沉默，仅在Truth Social网站上发布了一篇引用美国前国务卿希拉里·克林顿的话的帖子，称她支持他的加沙计划。与此同时，姆拉德诺夫周日晚间出现在以色列第12频道，似乎暗示分阶段实施的方案可能仍然是计划的一部分，但也明确表示哈马斯需要率先采取行动。

姆拉德诺夫说：“在实地采取切实行动之前，任何人都没有义务采取任何行动，以色列更是如此。如果武器解除工作得到核实，武器被从各派系手中收缴并妥善储存，最终无法使用，以色列才会从加沙撤军。”

当然，在这个领域里到处都有怀疑者，尤其是在面对两大主要参与者时。以色列和哈马斯都有着共同的利益，那就是确保任何失败的责任都推到对方身上。

因此，哈马斯对内塔尼亚胡的言论回应相当冷静和克制。哈马斯表示，它仍然致力于执行路线图，并补充说，它希望和平委员会“向内塔尼亚胡施压”，促使他遵守路线图。

事实上，很多人怀疑哈马斯是否真的打算放弃所有武器。这些武器是其在巴勒斯坦抵抗运动中领导地位的最直接体现，也是其在加沙地带内部动荡局势下生存的保障。在近20年的统治期间，哈马斯树敌众多。

但无论人们对哈马斯的真实意图、姆拉德诺夫核实武器解除的能力，还是内塔尼亚胡本人是否愿意下令撤军抱有何种疑虑，为什么要如此公开地挑衅特朗普呢？内塔尼亚胡，这位被众多追随者奉为战略大师的人，难道就不能处理得更巧妙一些吗？

原因或许并不令人意外——以色列即将举行大选。距离大选不到12周，民调显示他的处境依然艰难。毫无疑问，现在是时候与选民对话了。

所有以色列总理都必须组建由多个政党组成的执政联盟。正如其他人所指出的，内塔尼亚胡喜欢在选举前而不是选举后组建下一届执政联盟。

计票结束后，如果他想保住权力，就必须争取极右翼盟友的支持。因此，盟友们公开批评路线图，以及呼吁推翻以色列内阁此前批准向加沙部署国际稳定部队的决定，令他感到十分恼火。该部队原本旨在监督加沙地带一个小型试点项目的安全。据以色列军方电台周日报道，内塔尼亚胡已悄悄批准在试点地区启动重建工作，这看起来更像是进一步的软弱表现。

然而，如果仅仅将此视为迎合极右翼，那就大错特错了。绝大多数以色列选民虽然仍然对特朗普抱有好感，但他们认为，如果美国总统认为应该以任何方式限制以色列在加沙的行动自由，那就大错特错了。

例如，内塔尼亚胡的主要挑战者们不太可能注意到姆拉德诺夫在周日电视采访中试图诉诸以色列自身利益的言论。姆拉德诺夫当时表示，只有全面实施和平委员会的计划才能保证不会再发生像 2023 年那样针对居住在加沙附近的以色列社区的大规模袭击。

这位高级特使表示：“如果我们最终陷入对这那方面的争论和拖延战术，我可以向你们保证，唯一的选择就是哈马斯再次重新武装，并增加再次发生10月7日事件的风险。”

如果加迪·艾森科特、纳夫塔利·贝内特或许多其他以色列总理候选人认为该纲领能获得很多选票，那才真是令人惊讶。

与此同时，美国和平委员会的一名官员试图强调以色列近几日在加沙的军事克制，以及其打击目标政策的改变。

“我们看到幕后正在进行合作，”这位官员表示。

对于加沙的200万居民来说，这只是微不足道的安慰，他们仍然被排除在对话之外，几乎没有能力决定自己的命运。

Eugenia Yosef 和 Jennifer Hansler 对本报道亦有贡献。