Why are bond yields rising and how does it affect me?

The US is borrowing more to finance its war with Iran, adding to fiscal pressures that were already mounting before the conflict began.

Published Sep 09, 2026, 07:23 PM

Updated Sep 14, 2026, 12:35 PM

Long-term government bond yields are rising globally due to inflation, energy crises, and increased US borrowing, pushing up borrowing costs and affecting global interest rates.

Higher US bond yields tend to support the US dollar but concerns about US debt sustainability and economic policies limit its strength; this impacts Singapore investors with US asset exposure.

Rising bond yields may increase borrowing costs and shift investments from REITs and stocks to bonds, but Singapore’s economy and financial sector show resilience amid these changes.

SINGAPORE - Long-term government bond yields around the world have climbed to multi-year highs in recent weeks, raising borrowing costs and putting pressure on other investments.

As US Treasuries provide a global benchmark for interest rates and asset valuations, their yields can affect everything from Singapore government bonds and corporate bonds to share prices, exchange rates and, indirectly, borrowing costs here.

The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond closed above 5.3 per cent in August, its highest level since 2007.

Long-term government bond yields in Britain, Germany and Japan have also risen to levels not seen in years.

This rise is the result of a potent cocktail of issues, including an increase in headline inflation due to the energy crisis caused by the prolonged Middle East conflict.

Oil prices hit US$100 a barrel for Brent crude on Sept 9 o win g to the continued blockade around the Strait of Hormuz – a vital global shipping channel for oil and gas – raising the prices of everything from fuel to food.

The US is also borrowing more to finance its war with Iran , adding to fiscal pressures that were already mounting before the conflict began.

The federal government recorded a deficit of US$1.78 trillion (S$2.25 trillion) in the financial year ended September 2025, as spending exceeded revenue. Its gross national debt has since surpassed US$40 trillion, intensifying concerns about how much more debt the market will have to absorb and the interest rates investors will demand to hold it.

Governments around the world need to finance infrastructure and defence investments, technological transformation and growing social spending linked to ageing populations, Kelvin Tay, chief investment officer for Asia at Pictet Wealth Management, explained.

At the same time, companies need to invest to adapt to emerging artificial intelligence demands.

Governments and businesses are therefore competing more actively for investors’ money, potentially pushing borrowing costs higher, particularly for longer-term funding, said OCBC head of wealth advisory Chez Anbu.

In exchange, investors now want higher returns for lending money over longer periods, particularly when elevated inflation threatens to erode the value of future interest payments. This pushes long-term bond yields higher.

Impact on the US Dollar

Higher US bond yields tend to support the US dollar, as more capital flowing into US fixed income markets can lead to greater demand for the dollar, said JP Morgan Asset Management’s Swa Wu, head of Asia excluding-Japan investment specialists for fixed income.

But the higher yields this time do not guarantee a stronger US dollar, as there are also concerns about how sustainable US debt is.

Goh Rong Ren, Eastspring Investments’ head of macro and thematics for Asian fixed income, said other factors like uncertainty around US economic policy, such as tariffs and fiscal outlook, have also reduced some of the confidence that has previously supported US assets.

International investors are also parking money in other assets instead of channelling large amounts into the US.

“Taken together, these factors are helping to keep a lid on the dollar despite higher US yields,” Goh said.

The volatility of the US dollar affects Singapore investors, especially since many investors have holdings in the United States, whether in shares, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or other assets, said UOB’s Gidon Jerome Kessel, group head of deposit and wealth management.

For example, if a US stock gains 8 per cent but the greenback falls against the Singapore dollar , the gains for a Singapore investor would be eroded.

Impact on other government bonds

Kessel said there is typically a correlation between the yields of the Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) and yields across other markets, especially since the US Treasury is the key benchmark for global fixed income markets.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announces the interest rates of each SSB tranche, as well as the returns over different holding periods.

For instance, the average return over 10 years for the upcoming tranche of SSB is 2.32 per cent, according to the MAS website.

Goh noted that if investors can earn more from US government bonds, they may also demand somewhat higher yields from government bonds elsewhere.

But that does not mean other bond markets move one for one with the US.

“Singapore government bonds, and Singapore-dollar fixed income more broadly, have been relatively stable even as global bond yields have risen in 2026,” he said.

“There has been some upward pressure on Singapore government securities yields, but the move has been much smaller than in the US and several other major bond markets.”

Anbu noted that other factors like local inflation, monetary conditions and currency hedging costs also matter.

Singapore’s 10-year government bond yield of under 2.5 per cent in September remains well below its US counterpart.

But he also said that if Singapore government securities yields rise sustainably, future SSB issues could offer higher returns.

Will Singapore see higher interest rates?

Bond yields set out the cost of borrowing when banks lend money. Hence, long-term yields also benchmark the cost of other loans such as mortgages and corporate term loans.

Shorter-term borrowing in Singapore is anchored to the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA), which also follows global funding conditions such as a US Federal Reserve rate hike, said Eric Xiao from CMC Markets.

Hence, in Singapore, many floating rate loans are linked to compounded SORA and not directly to the US 10-year yield. MAS also conducts monetary policy through the exchange rate rather than a policy interest rate, said Anbu.

“Consequently, higher US yields create upward pressure, but do not guarantee an immediate or equivalent rise in Singapore lending rates,” he added.

“Local liquidity and bank competition can cushion the effect. Existing fixed-rate borrowers remain protected during their fixed-rate period.”

Goh said households that are concerned about higher interest rates can lock in their borrowing costs for the next few years through a fixed-rate loan or refinancing package.

Impact on REITs and stocks

If government yields rise, REITs will have to offer investors higher dividends to stay competitive. If not, investors may sell REITs to buy safer government bonds that offer higher yields, said Xiao.

Kessel added that if yields continue to increase, bonds and fixed income may also become more attractive to investors. This can lead them to reallocate funds away from REITs and stocks into assets like bonds and treasury bills.

But Kessel said that for Singapore’s stock market, there may still be good interest given strong corporate balance sheets and attractive dividend payouts, especially with the three local banks making up a large part of the equities market and possibly benefiting from higher interest rates.

Maybank analysts also said that the impact of the higher bond yields on the Singapore market will be “uneven”, especially since more than half of the Straits Times Index (STI) is dominated by financials that benefit from rising rates.

Maybank Securities Singapore head of equity research Thilan Wickramasinghe said: “Singapore’s domestic drivers such as the construction boom, AI supply chain-linked semiconductor demand and fiscal measures are secular drivers that are likely to be less impacted by the near-term direction of bonds.”

Morningstar senior analyst Arvind Subramanian said investors should be careful when chasing higher yields, as they should be prepared to tolerate greater volatility with funds that take on more interest rate risk.

“This has disappointed investors seeking the more stable return profile that fixed income is traditionally expected to provide,” he said.

Anbu also noted that while bonds can offer investors meaningful income opportunities, it does not mean they should totally drop stocks.

“The higher yields raise the bar for equity investments, but they do not automatically undermine the case for equities,” he said.

“With growth still resilient, the key is whether earnings and cash-flow growth can justify valuations and compensate for higher financing costs.”

Eastspring Investments’ portfolio manager Bryan Yeong said that equities remain an important part of an investor’s long-term portfolio because they offer the potential for earnings, dividend growth and capital appreciation.

Sue-Ann Tan is a business correspondent at The Straits Times, covering capital markets and sustainable finance.

Singapore Savings Bonds

美国正在增加借贷以资助其与伊朗的战争，这加剧了冲突爆发前就已经不断增加的财政压力。

发布于 2026 年 9 月 9 日下午 7:23

更新于2026年9月14日下午12:35

由于通货膨胀、能源危机和美国借贷增加，全球长期政府债券收益率正在上升，推高了借贷成本，并影响了全球利率。

美国国债收益率上升往往会支撑美元，但对美国债务可持续性和经济政策的担忧限制了美元的强势；这会影响持有美国资产的新加坡投资者。

债券收益率上升可能会增加借贷成本，并将投资从房地产投资信托基金和股票转向债券，但新加坡的经济和金融业在这些变化中表现出了韧性。

新加坡——近几周来，全球长期政府债券收益率攀升至多年高位，推高了借贷成本，并给其他投资带来压力。

由于美国国债是全球利率和资产估值的基准，其收益率会影响从新加坡政府债券和公司债券到股票价格、汇率以及间接影响新加坡借贷成本的一切。

8月份，30年期美国国债收益率收于5.3%以上，为2007年以来的最高水平。

英国、德国和日本的长期政府债券收益率也已升至多年来的最高水平。

这一增长是多种因素共同作用的结果，其中包括由于中东长期冲突引发的能源危机而导致的总体通货膨胀加剧。

9 月 9 日，布伦特原油价格突破每桶 100 美元，原因是霍尔木兹海峡（一条重要的全球石油和天然气运输通道）持续遭到封锁，导致从燃料到食品等所有商品的价格上涨。

美国也在增加借贷以资助其与伊朗的战争，这加剧了冲突爆发前就已经不断增加的财政压力。

截至2025年9月的财政年度，联邦政府录得1.78万亿美元（约合2.25万亿新元）的财政赤字，支出超过收入。其国民总债务已超过40万亿美元，加剧了人们对市场未来将不得不消化多少债务以及投资者持有这些债务所需利率的担忧。

Pictet Wealth Management 亚洲首席投资官 Kelvin Tay 解释说，世界各国政府需要为基础设施和国防投资、技术转型以及与人口老龄化相关的不断增长的社会支出提供资金。

与此同时，企业需要投资以适应新兴的人工智能需求。

华侨银行财富咨询主管Chez Anbu表示，因此，各国政府和企业正在更加积极地争夺投资者的资金，这可能会推高借贷成本，尤其是长期融资成本。

作为交换，投资者现在希望在更长的期限内获得更高的贷款回报，尤其是在高通胀威胁到未来利息支付价值的情况下。这推高了长期债券收益率。

对美元的影响

摩根大通资产管理公司除日本以外的亚洲固定收益投资专家主管吴思薇表示，美国国债收益率上升往往会支撑美元，因为流入美国固定收益市场的更多资本会导致对美元的需求增加。

但此次较高的收益率并不能保证美元走强，因为人们也对美国债务的可持续性感到担忧。

东亚投资亚洲固定收益宏观及主题主管吴荣仁表示，其他因素，例如美国经济政策的不确定性（如关税和财政前景），也削弱了此前支撑美国资产的部分信心。

国际投资者也正在将资金投入其他资产，而不是将大量资金投入美国。

“综合来看，尽管美国国债收益率走高，但这些因素仍在抑制美元走强，”吴先生表示。

大华银行存款及财富管理集团主管吉顿·杰罗姆·凯塞尔表示，美元的波动会影响新加坡投资者，尤其是许多投资者在美国持有资产，无论是股票、交易所交易基金（ETF）还是其他资产。

例如，如果一只美国股票上涨 8%，但美元兑新加坡元下跌，那么新加坡投资者的收益就会被抵消。

对其他政府债券的影响

凯塞尔表示，新加坡储蓄债券 (SSB) 的收益率与其他市场的收益率之间通常存在相关性，尤其是因为美国国债是全球固定收益市场的关键基准。

新加坡金融管理局（MAS）公布每期新加坡储蓄债券（SSB）的利率，以及不同持有期限的回报。

例如，根据新加坡金融管理局网站的数据，即将发行的新加坡储蓄债券（SSB）10 年平均回报率为 2.32%。

吴指出，如果投资者可以从美国政府债券中获得更多收益，他们也可能要求其他国家的政府债券获得更高的收益率。

但这并不意味着其他债券市场的走势会与美国债券市场完全一致。

“尽管2026年全球债券收益率上升，但新加坡政府债券以及更广泛的新加坡元固定收益产品一直保持相对稳定，”他说道。

“新加坡政府债券收益率面临一定的上行压力，但涨幅远小于美国和其他几个主要债券市场。”

安布指出，当地通货膨胀、货币状况和货币对冲成本等其他因素也很重要。

新加坡9月份10年期政府债券收益率低于2.5%，远低于美国同类债券收益率。

但他还表示，如果新加坡政府债券收益率持续上升，未来新加坡证券发行的债券可能会带来更高的回报。

新加坡会面临更高的利率吗？

债券收益率反映了银行放贷的借贷成本。因此，长期收益率也成为衡量其他贷款（例如抵押贷款和公司定期贷款）成本的基准。

CMC Markets 的 Eric Xiao 表示，新加坡的短期借贷与新加坡隔夜平均利率 (SORA) 挂钩，而 SORA 也受到全球融资状况的影响，例如美联储的加息。

因此，在新加坡，许多浮动利率贷款与复利SORA挂钩，而非直接与美国10年期国债收益率挂钩。安布表示，新加坡金融管理局（MAS）也通过汇率而非政策利率来实施货币政策。

“因此，美国国债收益率上升会带来上行压力，但并不能保证新加坡贷款利率会立即或以同等幅度上升，”他补充道。

“本地流动性和银行竞争可以缓解这种影响。现有固定利率借款人在固定利率期限内仍能得到保障。”

吴先生表示，担心利率上涨的家庭可以通过固定利率贷款或再融资方案锁定未来几年的借贷成本。

对房地产投资信托基金和股票的影响

肖先生表示，如果政府债券收益率上升，房地产投资信托基金（REITs）为了保持竞争力，就必须向投资者提供更高的股息。否则，投资者可能会抛售REITs，转而购买收益率更高、更安全的政府债券。

凯塞尔补充说，如果收益率持续上升，债券和固定收益产品对投资者的吸引力可能会增强。这可能导致他们将资金从房地产投资信托基金和股票重新配置到债券和国库券等资产。

但凯塞尔表示，鉴于新加坡企业资产负债表稳健、股息支付诱人，新加坡股市可能仍会保持良好的市场兴趣，尤其是三家本地银行占据了股票市场的大部分份额，并且可能受益于更高的利率。

马来亚银行分析师还表示，债券收益率上升对新加坡市场的影响将是“不均衡的”，尤其是海峡时报指数 (STI) 中超过一半的成分股是金融股，而金融股会受益于利率上升。

马来亚银行证券新加坡股票研究主管蒂兰·维克拉马辛格表示：“新加坡的国内驱动因素，例如建筑业繁荣、与人工智能供应链相关的半导体需求以及财政措施，都是长期驱动因素，不太可能受到债券近期走势的影响。”

晨星高级分析师 Arvind Subramanian 表示，投资者在追求更高收益时应该谨慎，因为他们应该做好准备，承受承担更高利率风险的基金所带来的更大波动性。

他说：“这令那些寻求固定收益产品传统上所能提供的更稳定回报的投资者感到失望。”

安布还指出，虽然债券可以为投资者提供有意义的收入机会，但这并不意味着他们应该完全放弃股票。

“更高的收益率提高了股票投资的门槛，但这并不意味着股票投资就一定没有价值，”他说。

“尽管增长依然强劲，但关键在于盈利和现金流增长能否支撑目前的估值，并弥补更高的融资成本。”

东亚投资的投资组合经理杨文龙表示，股票仍然是投资者长期投资组合的重要组成部分，因为它们提供了盈利、股息增长和资本增值的潜力。

Sue-Ann Tan 是《海峡时报》的商业记者，负责报道资本市场和可持续金融。

新加坡储蓄债券