Fed expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, marking a sharp turnaround for an economy increasingly shaped by the war in the Middle East.

Inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% target for almost half a decade and has worsened since the start of the war with Iran.

That’s leading officials on the central bank’s influential rate-setting committee toward the first rate hike since 2023, a move designed to cool spending and prevent inflation from becoming more entrenched.

Raising rates could also weaken an economy that is already showing signs of strain, pushing up the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses. However, keeping rates steady could rock the bond market, sending the Treasury rates that influence mortgages dramatically higher and spooking the stock market.

Retail sales rebounded sharply in August in good news for the US economy

America’s economic backbone isn’t cracking just yet.

Retail sales rose 1.2% in August, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, up sharply from July’s 0.5% decline. That was well above the 0.7% increase economists predicted in a poll by data firm FactSet. The figures are adjusted for seasonal swings but not inflation.

Retail spending has trended lower in recent months, and the weak July reading raised questions whether the mighty US consumer might finally be buckling under the weight of higher inflation, mounting consumer debt and persistent economic uncertainty.

It turns out that’s not quite the case, at least for now. And that’s good news for the US economy, considering consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of growth. Retail spending, which doesn’t including purchases on services, makes up one-third of overall spending.

Resilient consumer spending also shows the Federal Reserve has some room to raise rates to tame inflation, without risking pushing the US economy over the edge with a potential hike.

Stock futures rise ahead of Fed rate decision

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Stock futures were higher Wednesday morning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, set to be announced at 2 p.m. ET.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%. Dow futures rose 160 points, or 0.3%. Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%.

Stocks are coming off a day in the red. The stock market has been in a mini slump, with the S&P 500 down about about 2.75% since hitting a record high on August 13.

The S&P 500 has dropped six out of the past seven trading sessions as rising oil prices and bond yields have weighed on the market.

Bond yields pulled back slightly on Wednesday after the 10-year yield on Tuesday closed around 5%, its highest level since 2007 .

Yields have climbed amid a bevy of concerns from elevated energy prices and expectations for higher borrowing costs, as well as rising corporate debt issuance and unchecked government spending.

Oil prices were slightly lower Wednesday after Brent crude on Tuesday settled at $108.75 per barrel, its highest closing level since May 19.

市场普遍预期美联储将于周三提高基准利率，这将标志着受中东战争影响日益加剧的经济出现急剧好转。

近五年来，通货膨胀率一直高于美联储 2% 的目标，并且自伊朗战争爆发以来情况更加恶化。

这使得央行颇具影响力的利率制定委员会的官员们倾向于自 2023 年以来首次加息，此举旨在抑制支出，防止通胀进一步加剧。

提高利率可能会削弱本已显露疲态的经济，推高消费者和企业的借贷成本。然而，维持利率不变则可能动摇债券市场，导致影响抵押贷款的国债利率大幅上涨，并引发股市恐慌。

美国8月份零售销售额大幅反弹，这对美国经济来说是个好消息。

美国的经济支柱尚未崩溃。

美国商务部周三公布的数据显示，8月份零售销售额增长1.2%，较7月份0.5%的降幅大幅反弹。这一数字远高于数据公司FactSet调查中经济学家预测的0.7%的增幅。这些数据已根据季节性因素进行调整，但未考虑通货膨胀因素。

近几个月来，零售支出呈下降趋势，7 月份疲软的读数引发了人们的疑问：强大的美国消费者是否最终会在高通胀、不断增加的消费者债务和持续的经济不确定性的重压下屈服？

事实证明，至少目前来看，情况并非如此。考虑到消费支出约占美国经济增长的三分之二，这对美国经济来说是个好消息。零售支出（不包括服务消费）占总支出的三分之一。

消费者支出的韧性也表明，美联储在提高利率以抑制通胀方面还有一些空间，而不会因为潜在的加息而使美国经济陷入困境。

美联储利率决议前，股指期货上涨

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周三上午，股指期货走高，市场等待美联储于美国东部时间下午 2 点宣布的利率决议。

标普500指数期货上涨0.4%。道琼斯指数期货上涨160点，涨幅0.3%。纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.6%。

股市今日收跌。自8月13日创下历史新高以来，股市已出现小幅下跌，标普500指数下跌约2.75%。

受油价上涨和债券收益率上升的影响，标普500指数在过去七个交易日中有六个交易日下跌，给市场带来压力。

周三债券收益率小幅回落，此前10年期国债收益率周二收于5%左右，为2007年以来的最高水平。

受能源价格高企、借贷成本预期上升、企业债务发行增加以及政府支出不受控制等诸多因素的影响，收益率有所攀升。

周三油价小幅下跌，此前布伦特原油周二收于每桶 108.75 美元，创下自 5 月 19 日以来的最高收盘价。