Fed hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate Wednesday for the first time since 2023 to fight stubbornly high inflation. The quarter-point move lifts the key rate to about 3.9 percent and could raise borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. The Fed also signaled another hike later this year to 4.1 percent. The decision sets up a confrontation with President Donald Trump, who wants lower rates.

The Fed said the move was intended to support a timelier return to its 2 percent inflation goal.

The central bank’s quarterly projections point to a second rate hike later this year to 4.1 percent.

Inflation was 3.7 percent in July by the Fed’s preferred measure, while core inflation was 3.3 percent.

The 10-year Treasury bond rate reached 5 percent this week for the first time in three years.

Published Sep 17, 2026 3:10 am KST

Chair of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC, on Jul. 29. AFP-Yonhap

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate Wednesday for the first time since 2023 in an effort to quell stubbornly-high inflation, a move that could spur a sharp response from the White House.

The quarter-point increase lifts the Fed’s key rate to about 3.9 percent and, over time, could result in higher borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. In a set of quarterly projections, the Fed also signaled that its rate-setting committee expects to hike rates a second time later this year to 4.1 percent.

“Today’s policy action will support a timelier return” to the central bank’s 2 percent inflation goal, the Fed said in a statement.

The move comes as Americans are already struggling with high costs for groceries, gas, and housing. Affordability has taken on a leading role in the upcoming midterm elections, just seven weeks away.

The rate hike is a surprising turnaround for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who was appointed by President Donald Trump and took over the top job in May. Warsh often suggested last year when under consideration by Trump that the Fed could reduce its key rate, echoing the president’s call for lower borrowing costs.

Barely four months into the job, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is stuck between two strong and opposing forces: Financial markets that anticipate the central bank will raise interest rates, and President Donald Trump, who wants the Fed to cut them or leave them unchanged.

Economists expect that on Wednesday, Warsh and his fellow policymakers will side with the markets.

Warsh, economists say, has largely boxed himself into a rate hike after delivering a high-profile speech last month warning that inflation remains too far above the Fed's 2 percent target and might require higher borrowing costs to bring it down. A report last week showing inflation is still stubbornly high largely sealed investors' expectations.

Warsh has faced this dilemma before. Soon after becoming chair May 22, he delivered tough rhetoric on inflation, but in late July the central bank left its key rate unchanged. After he provided little explanation for his decision at a press conference, investors pushed up longer-term interest rates, accelerating a process that is still ongoing. This week, the rate on the 10-year Treasury bond reached 5 percent for the first time in three years. Mortgage rates, which closely follow the 10-year Treasury, have also risen.

If the Fed doesn't hike its key rate Wednesday, it risks a replay of what happened in late July, economists say. When investors expect inflation to stay high, they demand higher interest rates on government and corporate bonds to compensate.

“That is the paradox: A hike now could lower long-term rates later,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, wrote in an email. “Restore faith in the 2 percent target, then the inflation premium can fall. Fail, and markets will tighten instead through higher mortgage rates, business borrowing costs and interest on the debt.”

A quarter-point rate increase would be the first in three years and push the Fed's benchmark rate to about 3.9 percent.

While campaigning for the top job last year, Warsh said the Fed could lower interest rates. But since getting the nod, the Iran war has sharply raised gas prices, lifting inflation to 3.7 percent in July, according to the Fed's preferred measure. In April 2025, before Trump's tariffs, it had fallen to 2.3 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, was 3.3 percent in July, up from 3 percent just before the Iran war.

If the Fed forgoes a rate hike, it would risk being seen as giving in to pressure from the White House, which could undercut its credibility with financial markets.

“Kevin cares about his legacy," said Kristin Forbes, an economics professor at MIT's Sloan School and former policymaker at the Bank of England. "And he knows that Fed chairs who follow political pressure instead of the economy do not go down well in the annals of history.”

Trump harshly criticized Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell, for not cutting rates quickly enough. His Justice Department even launched a criminal investigation into Powell over brief testimony he delivered to Congress last year, though that probe was eventually dropped.

Kevin Hassett, Trump's top economic adviser, was asked in an interview with Fox News on Sunday how Trump might react to a rate hike.

“I’m sure he’s not going to be super happy about it, but he will defend the independence of Kevin Warsh above all,” Hassett said.

Warsh might also have a measure of protection from the fact that his father-in-law is Ronald Lauder, a friend of Trump's and a billionaire donor to his campaigns.

Even if Warsh decides to support a rate hike, it's not clear how many more will follow. It's unusual for the Fed to change rates just once. Typically the central bank embarks on a series of hikes or rate cuts to push the economy in the direction it seeks.

There is one precedent for a single hike: In 1997, former chair Alan Greenspan lifted rates by a quarter-point in March of that year. Yet a financial crisis ignited in Asia that July, prompting the Fed to remain on hold. When the crisis worsened in 1998, the Fed ultimately cut rates three times that fall.

For now, Wall Street investors anticipate the Fed will hike three times, with additional increases in December and March.

But Jonathan Pingle, an economist at UBS, said it is possible that if future inflation data showed price increases cooling, the Fed could forgo more hikes.

“They don't have to follow through on that if the data goes their way,” Pingle said.

On Wednesday, the Fed will provide some hints about its next moves when it releases its quarterly economic projections, which will include a forecast of where its benchmark rate will be at the end of this year and next.

为应对居高不下的通胀，美联储周三上调基准利率，这是自2023年以来的首次加息。此次加息0.25个百分点，将关键利率上调至约3.9%，可能推高抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡等借贷成本。美联储还暗示，今年晚些时候可能再次加息至4.1%。此举将与希望降低利率的特朗普总统产生冲突。

美联储表示，此举旨在支持更快地恢复到2%的通胀目标。

央行季度预测显示，今年晚些时候将第二次加息至 4.1%。

根据美联储首选的衡量标准，7 月份通货膨胀率为 3.7%，而核心通货膨胀率为 3.3%。

本周，10年期美国国债收益率三年来首次达到5%。

发布于2026年9月17日凌晨3:10（韩国标准时间）

7月29日，美联储主席凯文·沃什在华盛顿特区威廉·麦克切斯尼·马丁联邦储备委员会大楼举行的新闻发布会上发表讲话。（法新社-韩联社）

华盛顿——美联储周三上调了基准利率，这是自 2023 年以来的首次上调，旨在抑制居高不下的通胀。此举可能会引发白宫的强烈反应。

此次加息25个基点，将美联储的关键利率上调至约3.9%，长期来看，这可能导致抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡等借贷成本上升。美联储在一系列季度预测中还暗示，其利率决策委员会预计将在今年晚些时候再次加息至4.1%。

美联储在一份声明中表示，“今天的政策行动将有助于更快地恢复”央行2%的通胀目标。

此举正值美国民众苦于应对高昂的食品杂货、汽油和住房成本之际。距离中期选举仅剩七周，民众的负担能力问题已成为此次选举的焦点议题。

此次加息对于美联储主席凯文·沃什来说是一个出人意料的转变。沃什由唐纳德·特朗普总统任命，于今年5月上任。去年，在特朗普考虑任命他时，沃什曾多次暗示美联储可能会降低关键利率，这与总统降低借贷成本的呼吁不谋而合。

美联储主席凯文·沃什上任仅四个月，就陷入了两股强大且对立的力量之间的困境：金融市场预期央行将提高利率，而总统唐纳德·特朗普则希望美联储降息或维持利率不变。

经济学家预计，沃什和他的政策制定者同僚们将在周三站在市场一边。

经济学家表示，沃什上个月发表了一次备受瞩目的讲话，警告称通胀率仍远高于美联储2%的目标，可能需要提高借贷成本才能将其压低，此举已基本将自己逼入加息的境地。上周发布的一份报告显示通胀率依然居高不下，这在很大程度上巩固了投资者的预期。

沃什此前也曾面临过类似的困境。5月22日他上任后不久，便发表了措辞强硬的通胀言论，但7月下旬，央行却维持了基准利率不变。在新闻发布会上，沃什并未对此决定做出过多解释，投资者随即推高了长期利率，加速了这一仍在持续的上涨进程。本周，10年期美国国债收益率三年来首次达到5%。紧随10年期国债收益率的抵押贷款利率也随之上升。

经济学家表示，如果美联储周三不加息，则可能重蹈7月下旬的覆辙。当投资者预期通胀将居高不下时，他们会要求政府债券和公司债券的利率上涨以弥补损失。

毕马威首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克在一封电子邮件中写道：“这就是悖论：现在加息可能会在未来降低长期利率。如果恢复人们对2%加息目标的信心，通胀溢价就会下降。如果失败，市场反而会通过更高的抵押贷款利率、企业借贷成本和债务利息来收紧货币政策。”

加息0.25个百分点将是三年来的首次加息，并将美联储的基准利率推高至约3.9%。

沃什去年竞选美联储主席时曾表示，美联储可能会降低利率。​​但自他上任以来，伊朗战争导致汽油价格大幅上涨，根据美联储首选的通胀指标，7月份通胀率升至3.7%。而在特朗普加征关税之前，即2025年4月，通胀率曾降至2.3%。

剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率在7月份为3.3%，高于伊朗战争爆发前的3%。

如果美联储放弃加息，就有可能被视为屈服于白宫的压力，这可能会削弱其在金融市场的信誉。

“凯文很在意自己的历史地位，”麻省理工学院斯隆商学院经济学教授、前英格兰银行政策制定者克里斯汀·福布斯说，“他知道，如果美联储主席屈从于政治压力而非经济形势，那么他在历史上就不会有好名声。”

特朗普严厉批评沃什的前任杰罗姆·鲍威尔降息速度不够快。他的司法部甚至就鲍威尔去年在国会作证的简短证词对其展开刑事调查，尽管该调查最终被撤销。

周日，特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特在接受福克斯新闻采访时被问及，特朗普可能会对加息作何反应。

“我确信他不会对此感到非常高兴，但他会把捍卫凯文·沃什的独立性放在首位，”哈塞特说。

沃什或许还能得到一定程度的保护，因为他的岳父是罗纳德·劳德，他是特朗普的朋友，也是特朗普竞选活动的亿万富翁捐助者。

即使沃什决定支持加息，后续还会加息多少次也未可知。美联储只调整一次利率的情况并不常见。通常情况下，央行会采取一系列加息或降息措施，以推动经济朝着其预期的方向发展。

单次加息的先例只有一个：1997年，时任主席艾伦·格林斯潘在当年3月将利率上调了0.25个百分点。然而，同年7月亚洲爆发金融危机，促使美联储维持利率不变。1998年危机加剧后，美联储最终在当年秋季三次降息。

目前，华尔街投资者预计美联储将加息三次，并在 12 月和 3 月再次加息。

但瑞银经济学家乔纳森·平格尔表示，如果未来的通胀数据显示物价上涨降温，美联储可能会放弃进一步加息。

“如果数据对他们有利，他们就不必继续执行，”平格尔说。

周三，美联储将发布季度经济预测，届时将透露其下一步行动的一些线索，其中包括对今年年底和明年基准利率的预测。