Korea holding down fuel prices, but it's getting harder

Korea is keeping fuel prices down through a March cap on gasoline and diesel, but analysts say the policy is becoming harder to sustain as crude prices rise again. The measure has helped slow inflation, but it is also adding mounting losses for refiners and leaving compensation talks unresolved. President Lee Jae Myung said domestic fuel prices and supplies remain stable thanks to the cap and export controls.

The government imposed a cap on prices for petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel, in March.

Inflation slowed to the 2 percent range in June and July, and the cap was estimated to have cut consumer price inflation by 0.5 percentage points in August, when the headline rate was 3.1 percent.

The government initially set aside about 4.2 trillion won for the six-month program, but the industry estimates cumulative losses have already exceeded 5 trillion won.

Korean gasoline consumption reached 8.86 million barrels in July, surpassing the previous July record of 8.856 million barrels, according to Korea National Oil Corp.

Brent crude for November delivery settled at $108.75 a barrel in London on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose 4.38 percent to $105.83 in New York.

Published Sep 17, 2026 7:00 am KST

People refuel their cars at a gas station in Seoul, Sunday. Yonhap

During much of the U.S.-Iran war, Korea shielded its economy from the sharpest swings in global oil prices by capping domestic fuel prices and restricting exports of petroleum products. But as crude prices climb again, that buffer is becoming increasingly costly to maintain, analysts said Wednesday.

The government imposed a cap on prices for petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel, in March. Under the scheme, refiners must keep prices below a state-set ceiling even as international crude prices rise, with the government compensating them for the resulting losses.

It has helped ease pressure on household costs. Inflation slowed to the 2 percent range in both June and July, while the cap was estimated to have reduced consumer price inflation by 0.5 percentage points in August, when the headline rate stood at 3.1 percent.

The measure passed its initially announced six-month mark on Sunday, but the government is finding it increasingly difficult to unwind the policy.

Renewed escalation in the Middle East has pushed international oil prices to their highest levels since May 19. Brent crude for November delivery settled at $108.75 a barrel in London on Tuesday (local time), while West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose 4.38 per cent to $105.83 in New York.

"Crude oil and international refined product prices are soaring, but domestic fuel prices and supplies remain stable without major disruption thanks to the price cap and controls on export volumes," President Lee Jae Myung wrote Saturday on social media.

Analysts say that stability has come at a mounting cost to refiners. The government initially set aside about 4.2 trillion won ($3.06 billion) to run the program for six months, but the industry estimates that cumulative losses have already exceeded 5 trillion won.

The government and refiners are also reportedly at odds over the scale of compensation and the methodology used to calculate losses, leaving even the first round of settlements unresolved.

"Domestic price controls could weaken cash flow if higher crude costs are not fully compensated by the government," said Benson Wu, Korea economist at Bank of America Global Research.

Prolonged price controls also risk weakening incentives to curb demand. Korean gasoline consumption reached 8.86 million barrels in July, surpassing the previous record for the month of 8.856 million barrels, according to data from Korea National Oil Corp.

"Over time, restrictions should have been adjusted to allow the economy to adapt gradually," said Troy Stangarone, a visiting senior fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America. "The difficulty with continued price ceilings is that they suppress the market signal for consumers to conserve fuel and result in excess consumption."

Wu said the policy is likely to remain in place for some time, adding that it is manageable in the near term. Stronger-than-expected corporate tax receipts, helped by the semiconductor upcycle, had given the government more room to compensate refiners, he added.

韩国通过3月份实施的汽油和柴油价格上限来抑制燃油价格，但分析人士表示，随着原油价格再次上涨，这项政策越来越难以维持。该措施有助于减缓通胀，但也加剧了炼油企业的亏损，并且赔偿谈判仍未取得进展。韩国总统李在明表示，得益于价格上限和出口管制，国内燃油价格和供应保持稳定。

政府在3月份对包括汽油和柴油在内的石油产品价格设定了上限。

6 月和 7 月通胀率放缓至 2% 左右，据估计，通胀上限使 8 月份消费者价格通胀率下降了 0.5 个百分点，当时总体通胀率为 3.1%。

政府最初为这项为期六个月的计划拨出约 4.2 万亿韩元，但业内人士估计累计损失已超过 5 万亿韩元。

据韩国国家石油公司统计，7月份韩国汽油消费量达到886万桶，超过了此前7月份885.6万桶的纪录。

周二，伦敦11月交割的布伦特原油结算价为每桶108.75美元，而纽约10月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油上涨4.38%，至每桶105.83美元。

发布于2026年9月17日 上午7:00（韩国标准时间）

周日，人们在首尔一家加油站给汽车加油。（韩联社）

在美伊战争的大部分时间里，韩国通过限制国内燃油价格和石油产品出口，保护本国经济免受全球油价剧烈波动的影响。但分析人士周三表示，随着原油价格再次攀升，维持这种缓冲措施的成本正变得越来越高。

今年3月，政府对包括汽油和柴油在内的石油产品价格设定了上限。根据这项规定，即使国际原油价格上涨，炼油商也必须将价格维持在政府设定的上限以下，政府将对由此造成的损失进行补偿。

这有助于缓解家庭开支压力。6月和7月通胀率均放缓至2%左右，而通胀上限估计使8月份的消费者价格通胀率降低了0.5个百分点，当时总体通胀率为3.1%。

该措施于周日超过了最初宣布的六个月期限，但政府发现越来越难以撤销该政策。

中东局势再度升级，推动国际油价升至5月19日以来的最高水平。周二（当地时间），伦敦11月交割的布伦特原油期货结算价为每桶108.75美元，而纽约10月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨4.38%，至每桶105.83美元。

“原油和国际成品油价格飙升，但由于价格上限和出口量控制，国内燃料价格和供应保持稳定，没有出现重大中断，”李在明总统周六在社交媒体上写道。

分析人士指出，这种稳定局面给炼油企业带来了越来越大的损失。政府最初拨款约4.2万亿韩元（约合30.6亿美元）用于该计划的六个月运行，但业内人士估计，累计损失已超过5万亿韩元。

据报道，政府和炼油商在赔偿规模和损失计算方法上也存在分歧，导致第一轮和解协议仍未达成一致。

“如果政府不能完全弥补原油成本上涨，国内价格管制可能会削弱现金流，”美国银行全球研究部韩国经济学家吴本森表示。

长期的价格管制也可能削弱抑制需求的动力。韩国国家石油公司的数据显示，7月份韩国汽油消费量达到886万桶，超过了此前885.6万桶的月度纪录。

“随着时间的推移，应该调整限制措施，让经济逐步适应，”美国韩国经济研究所访问高级研究员特洛伊·斯坦加罗内表示。“持续实施价格上限的问题在于，它会抑制消费者节约燃料的市场信号，导致过度消费。”

吴先生表示，这项政策可能会持续一段时间，并补充说，短期内是可控的。他还指出，半导体行业的复苏带动了企业税收收入超出预期，这使得政府有更多空间对炼油企业进行补偿。