BOK pressed to further raise key rate to track Fed's latest hike

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SEOUL, Sept. 17 (Yonhap) -- The Bank of Korea is likely to come under growing pressure to further raise its benchmark rate after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in over three years to combat rising inflation, watchers said Thursday.

Overnight, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in its first hike since July 2023 to the 3.75-4.00 percent range while signaling the possibility of another increase later this year amid persistent inflation and high oil prices.

The increase left the gap between the key interest rates of South Korea and the United States at up to 1 percentage point.

The Fed move came as the South Korean central bank lifted the benchmark interest rate to 3 percent over two straight meetings in July and August, marking the first back-to-back rate hikes since January 2023, when the central bank raised the rate at seven consecutive meetings starting in April 2022.

Analysts said rising inflation, combined with the rising currency rate and high household debt, will prod the BOK to further hike its benchmark rate within this year.

Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov. Shin Hyun-song bangs the gavel during a BOK Monetary Policy Board meeting at the central bank's headquarters in Seoul, in this Aug. 27, 2026, file photo. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

The BOK is likely to raise the key rate possibly in November, rather than next month, as it assesses the impacts of back-to-back rate hikes.

"The minutes from the August monetary policy meeting show that the central bank's policy weighting is centered on the timing and the pace, rather than on whether to raise the rate or not," said Kim Myung-sil, an analyst at iM Securities.

In its latest report on monetary policy, the BOK said it will decide the timing and pace of further rate hikes while reviewing domestic and external conditions, as accelerating inflation and solid economic growth are expected to continue for some time.

"Given that robust growth and inflation exceeding the target level are expected to continue for a considerable period, it is necessary to determine the timing and pace of further rate hikes while monitoring changes in domestic and external conditions," it said.

The country's solid economic growth is also adding weight to an additional rate hike by the BOK as its nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew at the fastest pace in 47 years in the second quarter, driven by strong exports and investment related to artificial intelligence (AI).

The expanded interest rate gap, along with still high housing prices in Seoul and its adjacent regions, will further press the BOK to keep its hawkish stance, they said.

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BOK pressed to further raise key rate to track Fed's latest hike

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首尔，9月17日（韩联社）——观察人士周四表示，在美联储为应对不断上涨的通胀而三年多来首次加息后，韩国央行可能面临越来越大的压力，需要进一步提高其基准利率。

隔夜，美联储将基准利率上调0.25个百分点，这是自2023年7月以来的首次加息，利率区间为3.75%-4.00%。同时，美联储也暗示，鉴于持续的通胀和高油价，今年晚些时候可能再次加息。

此次加息使韩国和美国的主要利率之间的差距扩大至多1个百分点。

美联储此举正值韩国央行在7月和8月连续两次会议上将基准利率上调至3%之际，这是自2023年1月以来首次连续加息。韩国央行自2022年4月起连续七次会议加息。

分析人士表示，不断上升的通货膨胀、不断上涨的汇率以及高企的家庭债务，将促使韩国央行在今年内进一步提高基准利率。

这张摄于2026年8月27日的资料照片显示，韩国央行行长申铉松在首尔央行总部举行的韩国央行货币政策委员会会议上敲响法槌。（联营照片）（韩联社）

韩国央行可能会在11月而不是下个月提高基准利率，因为它正在评估连续加息的影响。

iM证券分析师金明实表示：“8月份货币政策会议纪要显示，央行的政策重点在于加息的时机和速度，而不是是否加息。”

韩国央行在其最新货币政策报告中表示，鉴于通胀加速和经济增长强劲预计将持续一段时间，央行将根据国内外情况决定进一步加息的时机和步伐。

报告称：“鉴于强劲的经济增长和通胀率超过目标水平预计将持续相当长一段时间，因此有必要在密切关注国内外形势变化的同时，确定进一步加息的时机和步伐。”

该国稳健的经济增长也为韩国央行进一步加息提供了更多理由，因为在第二季度，该国名义国内生产总值 (GDP) 的增长速度达到了 47 年来的最快水平，这主要得益于强劲的出口和与人工智能 (AI) 相关的投资。

他们表示，不断扩大的利率差距，加上首尔及其周边地区仍然高企的房价，将进一步迫使韩国央行维持其鹰派立场。

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韩国央行面临进一步上调关键利率的压力，以跟上美联储的最新加息步伐。