'In our lane': Fed's Warsh defies Trump but still fighting for credibility

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh raised rates in Washington this week, defying President Donald Trump, while questions about his credibility and independence persisted. The Fed increased rates by 25 basis points to between 3.75 and 4.00 percent and signaled at least one more hike before year-end. Warsh said inflation is too high and has been for too long, while Trump claimed he had spoken with Warsh before the meeting. Economists and markets said the move strengthened Warsh’s standing, even as some questioned how independent he really is.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent.

Policymakers signaled at least one more rate hike before the end of the year.

Trump said he spoke with Warsh before the meeting and told him to do what you want.

Warsh said the Federal Reserve should stay in its lane and that independence is a two-way street.

The article says inflation has been above the Fed’s two percent target for more than five years.

Published Sep 18, 2026 4:30 am KST

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives with incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh for Warsh's swearing-in ceremony at the White House in Washington, D.C., on May 22. Reuters-Yonhap

WASHINGTON — U.S. Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh delivered the interest rate hike this week that many economists think surging inflation required, defying President Donald Trump — but questions about the central bank chief's credibility linger.

The Fed on Wednesday raised rates in the world's largest economy by 25 basis points to between 3.75 and 4.00 percent, with policymakers signalling at least one more rate hike before year-end.

Trump has launched an unprecedented assault on the Fed's independence to set monetary policy since taking office, initiating a criminal probe into Warsh's predecessor and attempting to fire another Fed governor in his quest for lower rates to spur economic activity.

He frequently insulted and berated former chair Jerome Powell, but delivered a muted — if still extraordinary — response to Warsh's announcement of the rate hike.

Trump told reporters he spoke with Warsh before the Fed's meeting, telling him to "do what you want" and ascribing the decision to raise rates — which the Fed chair voted for and stood by — to a "hostile board."

Asked by a reporter if he had spoken to the president, Warsh was tight-lipped. And queried on the Fed's independence, he again offered a tepid defence.

"Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane.

Independence is a two-way street," he said, responding to a question about Trump's threat to cut trade ties with some countries if the Fed raised rates.

"We let people that do trade policy and fiscal policy stay in their lane, too," Warsh said.

For Pao-Lin Tien, economics professor at George Washington University, Trump's version of his conversation with Warsh will fuel the skepticism of those who question the latter's independence.

"That kind of meddling really makes people question a little bit whether the Fed chair is really completely independent," she said. "Personally, I'm not very convinced."

'Not a reliable narrator'

For others, however, Warsh has been put in a difficult spot. With inflation surging to three-year highs amid the Iran war, and an aggressive president who has made it clear he will channel his anger at friends and foes alike if he does not get what he wants.

David Wessel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, thought Warsh managed the situation well.

"He got a unanimous vote from the FOMC to raise interest rates and, apparently based on a conversation between the two men, the president doesn't seem to blame Warsh personally for the rate hike," he said, referring to the Fed's interest-rate setting committee.

Still, the president's assertion that he gave Warsh permission to vote for the hike was "very Trump-like," he added.

"We don't know what was really said in that conversation. Warsh isn't talking and Trump isn't a reliable narrator," said Wessel. "I doubt he asked Trump for permission, but maybe Trump believes he gave it."

'Steel in his spine'

What is clear to many economists is that a rate hike was needed.

Inflation has been above the Federal Reserve's two-percent target for more than five years, with U.S. households and businesses battered by high prices since the pandemic.

Inflation had been on a downward trajectory, but prices have surged in the wake of Trump's war on Iran, his signature tariff policies and the ongoing AI boom.

Since taking office in May, Warsh has made it clear he was focused on the high prices.

"The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long," he told reporters on Wednesday.

The White House insists that any inflation is due to the previous administration, with Trump advisor Kevin Hassett saying earlier this week that there was no need for a rate hike to tackle it.

Warsh, however, had a different view, saying that inflation data over the summer did not suggest that price rises were transitory.

For Tien, the Fed's decision to raise rates may have defied Trump's demands, but it does not necessarily mean much for its independence.

"Inflation has been so high for so long that it will be very hard to make an argument to not raise rates," she said.

Many in financial markets, however, cheered Wednesday's decision as establishing Warsh's credibility in going against the White House's wishes.

"Warsh has shown that he has steel in his spine by increasing interest rates seven weeks before the midterm elections," wrote economist Michael Strain in the Financial Times.

本周，美联储主席凯文·沃什在华盛顿宣布加息，此举无视了唐纳德·特朗普总统的反对，但外界对其信誉和独立性的质疑依然存在。美联储将利率上调25个基点至3.75%至4.00%的区间，并暗示年底前至少还会加息一次。沃什表示，通胀过高且持续时间过长，而特朗普则声称在会晤前曾与沃什交谈过。经济学家和市场人士认为，此举巩固了沃什的地位，尽管一些人质疑他究竟有多独立。

美联储将基准利率上调 25 个基点，至 3.75% 至 4.00% 的区间。

政策制定者暗示，年底前至少还会再加息一次。

特朗普说，他在会面之前和沃什谈过，并告诉他“你想做什么就做什么”。

沃什表示，美联储应该恪守本职，独立性是双向的。

文章指出，通货膨胀率已经连续五年多高于美联储2%的目标水平。

发布于2026年9月18日凌晨4:30（韩国标准时间）

5月22日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普陪同即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什抵达华盛顿白宫，出席沃什的就职典礼。（路透社-韩联社）

华盛顿——美联储主席凯文·沃什本周宣布加息，许多经济学家认为，飙升的通胀需要加息，此举违背了唐纳德·特朗普总统的意愿——但人们对这位央行行长的信誉仍存有疑问。

美联储周三将全球最大经济体的利率上调了 25 个基点，至 3.75% 至 4.00% 之间，政策制定者暗示在年底前至少还会再加息一次。

自上任以来，特朗普对美联储制定货币政策的独立性发起了前所未有的攻击，他不仅对沃什的前任展开了刑事调查，还试图解雇另一位美联储理事，以寻求降低利率来刺激经济活动。

他经常侮辱和斥责前主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，但对沃什宣布加息的反应却很平静——尽管仍然非同寻常。

特朗普告诉记者，他在美联储会议前与沃什进行了交谈，告诉他“你想做什么就做什么”，并将加息的决定（美联储主席沃什投票赞成并坚持这一决定）归咎于“敌对的董事会”。

当记者问及是否与总统交谈过时，沃什守口如瓶。而当被问及美联储的独立性时，他再次给出了不温不火的辩护。

“美联储独立性的一部分体现在我们恪守本分。”

“独立是双向的，”他在回答有关特朗普威胁称如果美联储加息，美国将切断与某些国家的贸易关系的问题时说道。

沃什说：“我们也让那些制定贸易政策和财政政策的人各司其职。”

乔治·华盛顿大学经济学教授田宝林认为，特朗普对与沃什谈话的描述将加剧那些质疑沃什独立性的人的怀疑。

“这种干预确实让人质疑美联储主席是否真的完全独立，”她说。“就我个人而言，我对此并不太确信。”

“叙述者不可靠”

然而，对另一些人来说，沃什的处境却十分艰难。伊朗战争导致通货膨胀飙升至三年来的最高水平，而一位咄咄逼人的总统也明确表示，如果他的要求得不到满足，他将把怒火发泄到朋友和敌人身上。

布鲁金斯学会高级研究员大卫·韦塞尔认为沃什很好地处理了这种情况。

“他获得了联邦公开市场委员会的一致投票通过，提高了利率。而且，根据两人之间的谈话来看，总统似乎并没有将加息的责任归咎于沃什本人，”他指的是美联储的利率制定委员会。

不过，总统声称他允许沃什投票支持加薪的说法“非常像特朗普的风格”，他补充道。

“我们不知道那次谈话究竟说了些什么。沃什不愿透露姓名，而特朗普的叙述也不可信，”韦塞尔说。“我怀疑他是否征求过特朗普的同意，但也许特朗普认为他已经同意了。”

“他脊梁骨像钢铁一样坚韧”

许多经济学家都认为，加息是必要的。

五年来，通货膨胀率一直高于美联储 2% 的目标，自疫情爆发以来，美国家庭和企业一直受到高物价的冲击。

通货膨胀原本呈下降趋势，但随着特朗普对伊朗发动战争、推行其标志性的关税政策以及人工智能的持续繁荣，物价飙升。

自五月份上任以来，沃什已明确表示，他关注的重点是高物价问题。

“显而易见的事实是，通货膨胀率过高，而且这种情况已经持续太久了，”他周三告诉记者。

白宫坚称任何通货膨胀都是上届政府造成的，特朗普的顾问凯文·哈塞特本周早些时候表示，没有必要加息来解决这个问题。

然而，沃什却持不同观点，他表示，夏季的通胀数据显示，物价上涨并非暂时性的。

田先生认为，美联储加息的决定可能违背了特朗普的要求，但这并不一定意味着美联储的独立性有多大意义。

“通货膨胀已经持续这么长时间，很难找到不加息的理由，”她说。

然而，金融市场上的许多人对周三的决定表示欢迎，认为这确立了沃什违背白宫意愿的信誉。

“沃什在中期选举前七周提高利率，表明他意志坚定，”经济学家迈克尔·斯特兰在《金融时报》上写道。