AI companies worry about the tech harming humans in the future. But it may damage the US economy even sooner

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President Donald Trump is suddenly at odds with AI’s leading executives over the largely unchecked development of AI technology. And it may be because our economy can’t afford a slowdown.

It might seem politically ill-advised, less than two months before the midterm elections to so forcefully stake out a position that’s out of step with the majority of Americans, who overwhelmingly oppose data centers being built near them and remain suspicious of AI’s use cases. But Trump’s pedal-to-the-metal approach suggests he may be more concerned about a bigger question: What happens to the US economy if the AI fever breaks on his watch?

There are a lot of ways to slice the metrics on just how dependent the US economy has become on AI (and AI-adjacent) spending. ING estimates tech investments dominated by AI and data centers account for a third of year-over-year economic growth in 2026. Goldman Sachs’ chief equity strategist recently told CNBC that AI investment is driving half of all the profit growth in the S&P 500.

Economists are careful to note how there’s always nuance in these calculations. AI bulls believe AI is the defining technology of our time, and that the stratospheric share prices it’s creating are just one of its many benefits. Any slowdown risks undoing those stock valuations, which would in turn ding household wealth and diminish corporate investment. And not only that, but its productivity gains bring stability to the American economy.

But one thing is hard to dispute: Absent the AI frenzy, the economy would be in a much weaker position — possibly even in a recession.

“If the music stops, and if it stops in a big, big way, it’s likely that we’re going to end up in stagnation or outright contraction over a period of at least a year,” Olu Sonola, US head of economic research at Fitch Ratings, told CNN.

The icing on the cake, said Sonola, is the wealth effect. People with stock portfolios exposed to AI are feeling flush , and they’re spending lavishly — further helping prop up America’s consumer-centric economy.

Whatever people’s personal beliefs about the technology, the money going into it is keeping the world’s biggest economy humming. If that money train stalls, the effects won’t be contained to tech investors on Wall Street.

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Last week, ratings agency Fitch ran a scenario imagining the economic outcome of an AI-related downturn, with US stock prices falling around 35% over six months — roughly the median decline of past financial busts. The result was that the economy would go into recession, with GDP contracting 1.5% next year.

To be sure, there’s no guarantee – or even specific indication – that the music is stopping anytime soon, and Fitch noted that “a sharp decline in US equity prices is not our base case.”

Still, plenty of investors and academics see a deeply interconnected system that’s vulnerable to smaller shocks.

“We have this ecosystem that’s spun up around AI,” said John Sedunov, a finance professor at Villanova University. “There are a bunch of companies that are very reliant on each other. And when you break a link in a chain like that, then there’s bound to be fallout.”

And that economic risk could come at a time when warning lights are already flashing. Bond markets are signaling growing concern over government debt loads, deficit spending and elevated inflation that could lead to a cycle of higher interest rates — a situation compounded by the war in Iran and investors piling into corporate debt to fund the AI buildout.

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“The equity price bubble risk is definitely a big one” to the global economy, Sonola said. “We’ve seen tariffs, we’ve seen the war. Another shoe is going to drop. We may just not know yet.”

But there are still optimists who point out the potential upside is still vast.

“What we’re seeing is very unusual, and so it does make sense that people are concerned about it,” said Jessica Wachter, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

But she doesn’t see the AI fervor turning into a spiral on the scale of 2008.

“I actually think that (AI) is going to be a bit of a stabilizing force… generally promoting net job creation and growth. I am, you can tell, an optimist, though. I know others have other views.”

安娜·莫尼梅克/盖蒂图片社

唐纳德·特朗普总统突然与人工智能领域的领军人物在人工智能技术近乎不受控制的发展问题上产生了分歧。这或许是因为我们的经济经不起放缓。

在距离中期选举不到两个月之际，如此强硬地表明与大多数美国民众立场相悖的立场，在政治上似乎并不明智。绝大多数美国民众反对在自家附近建设数据中心，并且对人工智能的应用前景仍持怀疑态度。但特朗普的这种全力以赴的做法表明，他或许更关心一个更大的问题：如果人工智能热潮在他任期内消退，美国经济将会怎样？

衡量美国经济对人工智能（及相关领域）支出依赖程度的方法有很多。荷兰国际集团（ING）估计，到2026年，以人工智能和数据中心为主导的科技投资将占到美国经济增长年均值的三分之一。高盛首席股票策略师最近告诉CNBC，人工智能投资推动了标普500指数一半的利润增长。

经济学家们谨慎地指出，这些计算中总存在细微差别。人工智能的拥护者们认为，人工智能是当今时代的决定性技术，它所创造的股价飙升只是其众多益处之一。任何放缓都可能导致这些股票估值回落，进而损害家庭财富并减少企业投资。不仅如此，人工智能带来的生产力提升还能为美国经济带来稳定性。

但有一点很难否认：如果没有人工智能热潮，经济状况会更加疲软——甚至可能陷入衰退。

“如果经济活动停止，而且是大幅度停止，那么我们很可能会在至少一年的时间内陷入停滞或彻底萎缩，”惠誉评级美国经济研究主管奥卢·索诺拉告诉 CNN。

索诺拉表示，锦上添花的是财富效应。持有人工智能相关股票的人感觉手头宽裕，并且挥金如土——这进一步支撑了美国以消费为中心的经济。

无论人们对这项技术持何种个人看法，投入其中的资金都在维持着世界最大经济体的运转。如果这股资金浪潮停滞不前，其影响绝不会仅限于华尔街的科技投资者。

卡尔·蒙顿//法新社/盖蒂图片社

上周，评级机构惠誉模拟了人工智能引发的经济衰退情景，假设美国股市在六个月内下跌约35%——这与以往金融危机的平均跌幅大致相当。模拟结果显示，美国经济将陷入衰退，明年GDP将萎缩1.5%。

当然，目前还没有任何保证，甚至没有任何具体迹象表明这种局面会很快停止，惠誉也指出，“美国股票价格大幅下跌并不是我们的基本预期”。

不过，许多投资者和学者认为，这是一个高度相互关联的系统，很容易受到较小冲击的影响。

“我们围绕人工智能建立了一个生态系统，”维拉诺瓦大学金融学教授约翰·塞杜诺夫说。“很多公司彼此高度依赖。一旦这条链条上的某个环节断裂，就必然会产生连锁反应。”

而这种经济风险可能正值各种警示信号已经亮起之际。债券市场发出信号，表明人们越来越担心政府债务负担、赤字支出和高通胀，这些都可能导致利率循环走高——伊朗战争以及投资者涌入企业债券以资助人工智能建设，都加剧了这种情况。

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索诺拉表示，“股市泡沫风险无疑是全球经济面临的一大风险”。“我们已经经历了关税，也经历了战争。未来还会有其他问题出现，只是我们现在可能还不知道而已。”

但仍有一些乐观人士指出，潜在的上涨空间依然巨大。

“我们看到的情况非常不寻常，所以人们对此感到担忧也是情理之中的，”宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰西卡·瓦赫特说。

但她认为人工智能热潮不会像 2008 年那样演变成一场螺旋式衰退。

“我个人认为（人工智能）会起到一定的稳定作用……总体上促进就业增长和经济增长。不过，看得出来我是个乐观主义者。我知道其他人有不同的看法。”