Voters weigh a DeSantis successor and other key races to watch in Florida, Alaska and Wyoming

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Florida Republicans are set to choose their nominee in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday in a contest that has in some ways turned into a bitter intra-party feud — even though there is little drama about its likely outcome.

Naples-area Rep. Byron Donalds, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump, is the favorite in the GOP gubernatorial primary. DeSantis has not endorsed him in the race and, CNN reported last month , shared his concerns about Donalds privately with Trump. But DeSantis also hasn’t backed any other candidate in a field that includes his lieutenant governor.

It’s led to a vacuum that has left space for the emergence of James Fishback, a race-baiting 31-year-old who has called Donalds, who is Black, a “slave to his donors” and a “DEI Republican” who would “turn Florida into a Section 8 ghetto.”

Tuesday’s contests also mark the first time voters will head to the polls under a new congressional map, designed by DeSantis to help Republicans net an additional four seats, that set off a scramble in down-ballot races.

As Democrats settle a series of their own primaries in the redrawn districts, the races will also test whether democratic socialists can continue to make gains and where voters stand on issues related to Israel. Republican voters also have tough choices ahead of them, with several contentious House primaries featuring controversial candidates.

Florida is the headliner on a day of primaries that also includes Alaska and Wyoming. Voters in California, meanwhile, will fill a House vacancy in a special election runoff.

Here’s what to watch in Tuesday’s contests:

Despite DeSantis’ apparent concerns with Donalds, Republicans have won every governor’s race in Florida in the last 30 years. Whoever wins on Tuesday — likely Donalds — will emerge Wednesday morning as the clear favorite to win in November.

However, Democrats came close to winning the governor’s office in 2018 — the last time midterms were held with Trump in office. A relatively weak showing by Donalds on Tuesday could indicate Democrats could have an opening to make the governor’s race competitive.

In addition to Fishback, other candidates in the GOP primary are Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who has framed his campaign around a pledge to protect the DeSantis legacy even though the governor has not endorsed his own No. 2, and former state House Speaker Paul Renner.

Democrats are expected to nominate party-switching former Rep. David Jolly in the race for governor. Jolly, a prominent critic of Trump, left the GOP in 2018 and last year officially became a Democrat.

When Trump posted a list of Florida Republicans with his endorsement on social media earlier this month ahead of the primary, there was a notable omission: 7th District Rep. Cory Mills – whom the president endorsed in February. And when DeSantis was asked whether he supports Mills last week, the governor said no.

The two-term congressman is being investigated by the House Ethics Committee for potential campaign finance violations, an accusation of a revenge porn threat and an assault allegation. Mills has repeatedly denied wrongdoing. He faces a primary challenge from former news anchor Ryan Elijah and two other candidates. Two other members of Florida’s House Republican delegation, Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, endorsed Elijah.

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Mills is not the only Republican facing a challenge on Tuesday. 6th District Rep. Randy Fine, a strident supporter of Israel who has drawn criticism for his anti-Muslim rhetoric, faces social media personality Dan Bilzerian, who has called Fine a “fat disgusting Jew” and run an openly antisemitic campaign.

Meanwhile, the 19th District race to replace Donalds is among the wildest Florida primaries, with two former members of Congress from other states — North Carolina’s Madison Cawthorn and New York’s Chris Collins — both in the running, as well as a former Illinois state senator, Jim Oberweis. Trump has endorsed Catalina Lauf, a 33-year-old former Commerce Department staffer, in the race.

Photo Illustration by Alberto Mier/CNN/Getty Images/AP/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network/Imagn/Catalina Lauf for Congress/Jim Schwartzel for Congress/Linda Sawyer for Congress/Tex for Congress/Mike Pedersen Republican for Congress

A ‘clown show’ of carpetbaggers and characters has upended a Republican primary in Trump’s backyard

The governor’s race and a Senate contest this fall will give down-and-out Florida Democrats, who have watched their state’s former battleground status erode as it has shifted rapidly rightward over the last decade, a chance to show they can still compete in statewide races.

The primary to take on Republican Sen. Ashley Moody pits retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a key witness in Trump’s first impeachment inquiry, against state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who has called for the United States to end its military support for Israel.

That nominee, as well as the winner of the gubernatorial primary, will attempt to reverse a rapid rightward shift in Florida. Among the factors contributing to that change: GOP gains with Hispanic voters, an influx of new conservative residents and a state Democratic Party that has been in disarray.

Early this century, Florida was perhaps the nation’s most critical swing state — decisive in the 2000 presidential election and a battleground through 2016. But Trump won the state on his way to losing the election in 2020, and then he cruised to a 13-point win there in 2024. Likewise, DeSantis, who won the governor’s office by less than half a percentage point in 2018, demolished his Democratic foe in 2022, winning by nearly 20 points.

Democrats are also settling intra-party squabbles in House primaries taking place in newly redrawn districts.

Among those races is the 25th District on South Florida’s east coast, where democratic socialists are looking to pick off another Democratic incumbent in Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who is backed by pro-Israel and artificial intelligence forces. Their candidate is Oliver Larkin, a 34-year-old activist and union organizer.

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Another Democratic primary to watch comes in the 20th District, where longtime Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is taking on former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned from her seat in April to prevent an Ethics Committee vote on whether she should be forced out of Congress. The panel previously found her guilty of a slew of ethics violations, including accusations that she stole millions in pandemic relief funds and used it to bolster her 2021 campaign. Cherfilus-McCormick also faces separate criminal charges and has pleaded not guilty.

Wasserman Schultz, however, has faced allegations of carpetbagging in the primary, as she shifted over to run in the historically Black district, which has long had a Black representative in Congress, after her current seat was redrawn to be more Republican friendly.

California is holding its special election to replace former Rep. Eric Swalwell for the rest of this year on Tuesday, and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has spent millions to try to steer voters away from state Sen. Aisha Wahab and toward its preferred candidate — Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez.

Wahab, an outspoken critic of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, earned nearly 43% of the votes in the June 16 special primary — well ahead of Hernandez, who finished second with nearly 17% support in the crowded race. Both candidates vying to represent the East Bay’s 14th District are Democrats.

E. Jason Wambsgans/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service/Getty Images

As the politics around Israel shift, many Democrats are seeking distance from AIPAC

The candidates will also square off again in the fall as they vie for a full two-year term.

Because of California’s mid-decade redistricting, the voters within the 14th District in November will be slightly different. The special election is taking place under the current district boundaries, while the new ones will be in effect for the general election.

Democratic leadership believes former Rep. Mary Peltola can give her party a fighting chance at flipping the Alaska Senate seat held by Republican Dan Sullivan.

But in the state’s unusual primary system — in which the top four finishers, regardless of party, advance to the general election — the bigger question might be whether another Dan Sullivan makes the cut.

Republicans failed in their efforts to get a second Sullivan — a former teacher who shares the incumbent’s first and last name — booted from the ballot.

The senator appears on ballots as Dan S. Sullivan and is listed as a registered Republican and the incumbent. The other Sullivan is identified as Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and he is not listed with a party affiliation, even though he filed to run as a Republican.

It’s a quirk that isn’t expected to seriously threaten the incumbent, at least not in Tuesday’s primary, but could make a difference in a razor-tight general election if even a small number of voters are confused.

Trump weighed in on Tuesday morning, urging voters to pick the “real” Dan Sullivan in the election and criticizing the rival candidate as an “imposter,” though he has said his campaign is legitimate.

Alaska voters are also selecting general election opponents to take on at-large Rep. Nick Begich III, as well as candidates to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Both seats are expected to remain in Republican hands in November.

There’s little drama about which party will win in November in Wyoming, one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.

But the state is set to see a major political shakeup, with open seats for governor, Senate and House this fall.

The primary to replace term-limited Gov. Mark Gordon will test Trump’s influence, as the candidate he endorsed — state Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder — takes on three other viable contenders: professional bull rider Curt Blake, state Sen. Eric Barlow and Brent Bien, a former Marine Corps colonel.

Degenfelder, 37, is an advocate for charter schools and vouchers who has broadly backed Trump’s education policies, including downsizing the Department of Education.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis is retiring, and Rep. Harriet Hageman, who won her seat by ousting former Rep. Liz Cheney in 2022, is backed by Trump and favored to emerge from a five-person field as the senator’s Republican heir apparent.

Nine candidates are vying for the House seat Hageman is vacating, though the president has not waded into that contest.

This story has been updated with additional information.

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佛罗里达州共和党人将于周二选出他们的候选人，以接替任期届满的州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯。这场竞选在某种程度上已经演变成一场激烈的党内争斗——尽管其可能的结果并没有什么悬念。

那不勒斯地区的众议员拜伦·唐纳兹获得了唐纳德·特朗普总统的背书，是共和党州长初选中的热门人选。德桑蒂斯尚未公开支持他，据CNN上月报道，德桑蒂斯曾私下向特朗普表达了对唐纳兹的担忧。但德桑蒂斯也没有支持其他任何候选人，包括他的副州长。

这导致了权力真空，为詹姆斯·菲什巴克的出现创造了空间。这位31岁的种族主义煽动者称，黑人唐纳德是“捐助者的奴隶”和“多元化、公平和包容性共和党人”，并称唐纳德会“把佛罗里达州变成第八区贫民窟”。

周二的选举也是选民首次在新国会选区划分图下投票，该选区划分图由德桑蒂斯设计，旨在帮助共和党人额外赢得四个席位，这引发了下级选举的激烈竞争。

随着民主党在重新划分选区后举行一系列初选，这些选举也将检验民主社会主义者能否继续取得进展，以及选民在以色列相关问题上的立场。共和党选民也面临着艰难的选择，多场竞争激烈的众议院初选都出现了颇具争议的候选人。

佛罗里达州是当天举行初选的焦点，阿拉斯加州和怀俄明州也参与了初选。与此同时，加利福尼亚州的选民将通过特别选举决选来填补众议院的一个空缺席位。

以下是周二比赛的看点：

尽管德桑蒂斯显然对唐纳德斯有所顾虑，但过去30年里，共和党赢得了佛罗里达州的每一届州长选举。周二的胜者——很可能是唐纳德斯——将在周三早上成为11月大选的明显热门人选。

然而，民主党在2018年——上一次特朗普执政期间举行中期选举——几乎赢得了州长职位。周二唐纳德家族相对疲软的表现可能表明，民主党或许有机会使州长竞选重新变得激烈起来。

除了菲什巴克之外，共和党初选的其他候选人还有副州长杰伊·柯林斯，他以保护德桑蒂斯的政治遗产为竞选纲领，尽管州长尚未支持自己的二号人物；以及前州众议院议长保罗·伦纳。

预计民主党将提名曾任众议员、后转投民主党的戴维·乔利竞选州长。乔利是特朗普的著名批评者，他于2018年离开共和党，并于去年正式加入民主党。

本月初，特朗普在社交媒体上公布了一份他支持的佛罗里达州共和党候选人名单，但名单上明显遗漏了第七选区众议员科里·米尔斯——尽管总统在二月份曾公开支持过他。上周，当被问及是否支持米尔斯时，州长德桑蒂斯予以否认。

这位连任两届的国会议员正因涉嫌违反竞选财务规定、被指控发出报复性色情威胁以及一项袭击指控而接受众议院道德委员会的调查。米尔斯一再否认有任何不当行为。他将在党内初选中面临前新闻主播瑞安·伊利亚和其他两位候选人的挑战。佛罗里达州众议院共和党代表团的另外两位成员，安娜·保利娜·卢娜和迈克·哈里多波洛斯，都公开支持伊利亚。

乔纳森·恩斯特/路透社

米尔斯并非周二唯一面临挑战的共和党人。第六选区众议员兰迪·芬恩是一位坚定的以色列支持者，但他的反穆斯林言论也招致了批评。他的对手是社交媒体名人丹·比尔泽里安，后者曾称芬恩为“肥胖恶心的犹太人”，并开展了一场公开的反犹太主义竞选活动。

与此同时，佛罗里达州第19选区众议员席位的争夺战，旨在填补唐纳德·特朗普离任后的空缺，这场初选竞争异常激烈。来自其他州的两位前国会议员——北卡罗来纳州的麦迪逊·考索恩和纽约州的克里斯·柯林斯——以及伊利诺伊州前州参议员吉姆·奥伯韦斯均参与了角逐。特朗普已公开支持33岁的前商务部工作人员卡塔琳娜·劳夫参选。

图片由 Alberto Mier/CNN/Getty Images/AP/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network/Imagn/Catalina Lauf for Congress/Jim Schwartzel for Congress/Linda Sawyer for Congress/Tex for Congress/Mike Pedersen Republican for Congress 提供

一群投机取巧之徒和形形色色的人物上演了一场“小丑秀”，搅乱了特朗普后院的共和党初选。

今年秋季的州长竞选和参议员竞选将给那些在过去十年里眼睁睁看着佛罗里达州迅速右倾，昔日摇摆州地位逐渐丧失的落魄佛罗里达州民主党人一个机会，证明他们仍然能够在全州范围内竞争。

挑战共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪的初选将在退役陆军中校亚历克斯·温德曼和州众议员安吉·尼克松之间展开。温德曼是特朗普首次弹劾调查的关键证人，而尼克松则是一位民主社会主义者，她曾呼吁美国停止对以色列的军事支持。

这位候选人以及州长初选的获胜者都将试图扭转佛罗里达州迅速右倾的趋势。导致这一变化的原因包括：共和党在拉美裔选民中支持率上升、大量保守派新居民涌入以及州民主党内部的混乱局面。

本世纪初，佛罗里达州或许是美国最关键的摇摆州——在2000年总统大选中起到了决定性作用，并在2016年大选前一直是激烈的战场。但特朗普在2020年大选中虽然赢得了佛罗里达州，却最终输掉了大选；随后，他在2024年又以13个百分点的优势轻松击败了佛罗里达州。同样，德桑蒂斯在2018年以不到0.5个百分点的微弱优势赢得州长选举，却在2022年以近20个百分点的巨大优势击败了民主党对手。

民主党人还在重新划分选区后举行的众议院初选中解决党内纷争。

这些竞选中包括佛罗里达州南部东海岸的第25选区，民主社会主义者正试图击败另一位民主党现任众议员贾里德·莫斯科维茨，后者得到了亲以色列和人工智能势力的支持。他们的候选人是34岁的活动家兼工会组织者奥利弗·拉金。

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

另一场值得关注的民主党初选是第20选区，资深众议员黛比·沃瑟曼·舒尔茨将挑战前众议员希拉·切尔菲勒斯-麦考密克。切尔菲勒斯-麦考密克于今年4月辞职，以阻止道德委员会就她是否应被强制离职进行投票。该委员会此前认定她犯有多项违反道德规范的行为，包括指控她挪用数百万美元的疫情救济资金，并将其用于支持其2021年的竞选活动。切尔菲勒斯-麦考密克还面临其他刑事指控，并已否认所有指控。

然而，沃瑟曼·舒尔茨在初选中却面临着“投机取巧”的指控，因为在她目前的选区被重新划分，变得更加有利于共和党之后，她转而竞选历史上黑人选区，该选区长期以来一直有一位黑人国会代表。

加州将于周二举行特别选举，以填补前众议员埃里克·斯瓦尔韦尔离任后的空缺，任期至今年年底。美国以色列公共事务委员会已花费数百万美元，试图引导选民远离州参议员艾莎·瓦哈卜，转而支持其属意的候选人——湾区捷运局主席梅丽莎·埃尔南德斯。

瓦哈卜是以色列在加沙军事行动的公开批评者，他在6月16日的特别初选中获得了近43%的选票，遥遥领先于排名第二的埃尔南德斯，后者在竞争激烈的初选中获得了近17%的支持率。这两位竞选东湾第14选区众议员席位的候选人都是民主党人。

E. Jason Wambsgans/芝加哥论坛报/论坛新闻社/Getty Images

随着以色列政治格局的转变，许多民主党人正寻求与美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）保持距离。

候选人将于秋季再次展开角逐，争夺完整的两年任期。

由于加州在十年前进行了选区重新划分，11月份第14选区的选民构成将略有不同。此次特别选举将按照现行选区划分进行，而新的选区划分将在普选中生效。

民主党领导层认为，前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉可以为民主党带来一线生机，有机会赢得由共和党人丹·沙利文占据的阿拉斯加州参议院席位。

但在该州不寻常的初选制度下——无论党派，得票最高的四名候选人都将晋级大选——更大的问题可能是，是否会有另一个丹·沙利文脱颖而出。

共和党人试图将另一位名叫苏利文的人——一位与现任议员同名的前教师——从选票上除名，但未能成功。

这位参议员在选票上的名字是丹·S·沙利文，登记为共和党人，也是现任参议员。另一位沙利文是丹尼尔·J·沙利文二世，虽然他登记参选共和党，但选票上没有列出他的党派归属。

这只是一个小插曲，预计不会对现任者构成严重威胁，至少在周二的初选中不会，但如果少数选民感到困惑，则可能在势均力敌的大选中产生影响。

周二上午，特朗普发表讲话，敦促选民在选举中选择“真正的”丹·沙利文，并批评竞争对手是“冒名顶替者”，尽管他曾表示自己的竞选活动是合法的。

阿拉斯加选民还将选出​​挑战现任众议员尼克·贝吉奇三世（Nick Begich III）的候选人，以及接替任期届满的州长迈克·邓利维（Mike Dunleavy）的候选人。预计这两个席位在11月的大选中仍将由共和党人把持。

怀俄明州是美国最可靠的共和党州之一，因此对于哪个党派将在11月赢得大选几乎没有悬念。

但今年秋季，该州将迎来重大的政治变革，州长、参议员和众议员的席位都将空缺。

因任期届满而卸任的州长马克·戈登的继任者初选将考验特朗普的影响力，因为他支持的候选人——州公共教育总监梅根·德根费尔德——将与另外三位实力强劲的竞争者展开角逐：职业斗牛士科特·布莱克、州参议员埃里克·巴洛和前海军陆战队上校布伦特·比恩。

37 岁的德根费尔德是特许学校和教育券的倡导者，他广泛支持特朗普的教育政策，包括缩减教育部的规模。

参议员辛西娅·卢米斯即将退休，而众议员哈里特·哈格曼在 2022 年击败前众议员利兹·切尼赢得席位，得到了特朗普的支持，并有望从五位候选人中脱颖而出，成为这位参议员的共和党接班人。

九位候选人正在角逐哈格曼即将空出的众议院席位，但总统尚未介入这场竞争。

本文已更新，添加了更多信息。