Intelligence from Chinese groups aiding in Iran’s increasingly effective targeting of US sites, sources say

Iranian State TV/Reuters

Satellite imagery and intelligence support provided by Chinese groups has helped Iran threaten ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launch precision strikes on US military bases in the Middle East, part of a dramatic improvement in Iranian targeting capabilities over the past several months, according to a series of recent American intelligence assessments described to CNN by four sources.

The imagery allowed Iran to strike a US base in Jordan in July, a strike that killed three American service members, with a level of precision US officials believe was otherwise beyond Iran’s capabilities, the sources said.

Chinese geospatial data has also enhanced Iran’s ability to track ships through the strait, giving Iranian drones and missiles a higher chance of successfully hitting targets, according to one of the officials. Two other sources said the data has allowed Iran to use otherwise unsophisticated heatseeking drones that cannot be maneuvered in midair to threaten ships by helping time launches.

The Chinese support helps explain how Iran has steadily become more accurate as sporadic waves of strikes have been launched in recent months, though sources indicated it’s one of several factors increasing Iranian military effectiveness. Russia has also been providing Tehran with support , and some officials have pointed to Iranian forces’ mounting combat experience during the conflict as key factors.

US officials say that it’s difficult to precisely quantify the scope of China’s assistance, in part because it’s not clear whether the Chinese government has ordered it or is merely tacitly allowing the support, and some officials disagree about how much Beijing is helping. A fifth source familiar with US intelligence noted that recent reporting has suggested China would prefer that the disruptions in the strait, which have ratcheted up global oil prices, cease.

But the intelligence support has shaped new tactics for Iran.

In the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran sees as its greatest point of leverage according to US officials and outside analysts, Tehran has continued to launch attacks against US military escorts and commercial vessels by firing a large number of heatseeking drones towards ships once they reach a particular geographic landmark in the waterway, described by one US official as a “knuckle.”

The heatseeking nature of the Iranian drones is not considered overly sophisticated technology, but Iranian forces have shown they can effectively track US escort operations — with help from Chinese satellite imagery — and launch attacks at the most opportune moment, the sources said.

The tactic amounts to firing a large number of drones and hoping they latch onto the heat signature in ships’ hulls, two US officials said.

And the pace of operations can be intense: During one recent escort operation, US forces intercepted over a dozen Iranian missiles and shot down nearly 20 drones, while also conducting offensive operations against roughly 60 targets around the strait, one of the officials said.

The intelligence support comes on top of technical assistance from both China and Russia that has helped Iran make improvements to the guidance systems on its missiles and drones.

But at least in some areas — like in the July attack on the base in Jordan — officials agree that Chinese-provided intelligence data has proved decisive.

“There’s a reason that their targeting has improved, and it is due to some assistance,” according to one of the sources. “Getting reps on the battlefield helps, but getting a helping hand helps a lot too.”

The Chinese and Iranian embassies in Washington did not respond to a request for comment ahead of publication.

The Defense Department declined to comment. The White House did not reply to a query ahead of publication.

The Wall Street Journal first reported that Iran used Chinese satellite data in its July attack on the base in Jordan.

At the time of that reporting Guo Jiakun, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, was asked for comment. “China always strictly fulfills its due international obligations. We oppose exploiting the conflict to throw mud at China,” he said.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is in Washington for meetings with President Donald Trump on Thursday and Friday.

The Trump administration has largely declined to publicly condemn the government of China for any direct or indirect support to Iran even as reports have surfaced on potential intelligence and military aid. But despite Trump’s desire to maintain positive relations with Xi, one of the US officials said that this was likely to be a topic of discussion during the state visit.

Asked in the days after the Jordan attack if China was providing targeting assistance to Iran, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declined to discuss the matter .

“Nothing that China has done has in any way changed the trajectory of … the conflicts we’re having with Iran,” Rubio told reporters. “In fact, in some cases, they’ve actually been quite cooperative,” he added, citing China’s public opposition to Iranian efforts to toll the Strait of Hormuz.

IRIB/Handout/Reuters

The Trump administration has sought to crack down on Chinese commercial satellite imagery of the region during the conflict, which officials have warned has endangered American troops. In May, the administration sanctioned three Chinese satellite companies that it said had provided imagery that “enables Iran’s military strikes against US forces in the Middle East.”

As the US war drags into its seventh month, officials say Iran has adapted its battlefield tactics to continue to threaten US assets in the region and keep pressure on the United States and its allies to surrender to Tehran’s demands. Iran is shooting down MQ-9 Reaper drones “left and right,” one of the sources familiar with recent intelligence assessments said, and there are still regular alerts about drone activity.

“They’re getting better because we’ve essentially given them more time to train,” another source familiar with recent assessments said. The same source noted that China has also sent assistance to Iran in the form of air defense systems .

And multiple officials expressed deep frustration at the obvious American vulnerability to missiles and drones that operate at low to medium altitude — as opposed to higher-altitude projectiles that the US has developed expensive, highly-sophisticated air defense systems to counter. It is forcing the US to put further defenses in place at some US military and diplomatic locations in the Middle East, said a source familiar with the matter.

Iran demonstrated that it was capable of striking American bases in the Middle East in 2020, after President Trump ordered the killing of a top Iranian general during his first term.

But its technical ability to strike a precise target has improved drastically since then, multiple officials said.

“Iranian strikes damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan” during the war’s first months, according to a recent report from the Pentagon’s inspector general.

Those Iranian strikes contributed to significant changes in how US troops have traditionally operated in the region, the report said. CENTCOM “shifted personnel, assets and storage facilities” as they came under attack from Iran and its proxy forces.

Iran’s import of dual-use components is also a major concern for US officials given Iran’s recent ability to reconstitute its military capabilities and industrial base.

“Without the Chinese parts they wouldn’t be as likely to keep fighting, it is as basic as that,” a US official said.

Still, the trend of Iran rebuilding its military inventory is consistent with previous assessments from US intelligence agencies and also a consequence of Trump’s decision to halt full combat operations before the US military completed its entire target list, another official added.

伊朗国家电视台/路透社

据四位消息人士向 CNN 透露，一系列近期美国情报评估显示，中国情报机构提供的卫星图像和情报支持帮助伊朗威胁霍尔木兹海峡的船只，并对美国在中东的军事基地发动精确打击，这是伊朗目标打击能力在过去几个月中显著提高的一部分。

消息人士称，正是这些图像使得伊朗能够在7月份袭击位于约旦的美国基地，造成三名美国军人丧生。美国官员认为，伊朗原本无法达到如此精准的袭击。

据一位官员透露，中国的地理空间数据也增强了伊朗追踪霍尔木兹海峡船只的能力，提高了伊朗无人机和导弹击中目标的成功率。另两位消息人士称，这些数据使伊朗能够利用原本技术较为简单、无法进行空中机动的红外制导无人机，通过辅助导弹发射来威胁船只。

中国的支持有助于解释伊朗为何在近几个月来零星的空袭中不断提高打击精准度，尽管有消息人士指出，这只是提升伊朗军事效能的诸多因素之一。俄罗斯也一直在向德黑兰提供支持，一些官员则指出，伊朗军队在冲突中不断积累的实战经验也是关键因素。

美国官员表示，很难精确量化中国提供的援助规模，部分原因是尚不清楚中国政府是下令还是仅仅默许，而且一些官员对北京究竟提供了多少帮助也存在分歧。一位熟悉美国情报部门的消息人士指出，近期报道显示，中国希望霍尔木兹海峡的动荡局势能够停止，因为这些动荡已经推高了全球油价。

但情报支持为伊朗制定了新的战略。

据美国官员和外部分析人士称，伊朗将霍尔木兹海峡视为其最大的筹码点。德黑兰继续对美国军事护航舰艇和商船发动攻击，一旦船只到达水道中某个特定的地理标志（一位美国官员将其描述为“指关节”），就会向其发射大量热寻无人机。

消息人士称，伊朗无人机的热追踪功能虽然不算特别先进，但伊朗军队已经证明，在中国的卫星图像的帮助下，他们能够有效地追踪美国的护航行动，并在最合适的时机发动攻击。

两名美国官员表示，这种战术相当于发射大量无人机，希望它们能够追踪到舰船船体上的热信号。

行动节奏可能非常紧张：一位官员表示，在最近的一次护航行动中，美军拦截了十几枚伊朗导弹，击落了近 20 架无人机，同时还对海峡周围约 60 个目标进行了进攻行动。

除了情报支持外，中国和俄罗斯还向伊朗提供了技术援助，帮助伊朗改进其导弹和无人机的制导系统。

但至少在某些方面——例如 7 月份对约旦基地的袭击——官员们一致认为，中国提供的情报数据已被证明是决定性的。

一位消息人士称：“他们的瞄准精度提高是有原因的，这得益于一些援助。实战经验固然重要，但获得帮助也至关重要。”

在本文发表前，中国和伊朗驻华盛顿大使馆均未回应置评请求。

美国国防部拒绝置评。白宫在发稿前未回复置评请求。

《华尔街日报》率先报道，伊朗在7月份对约旦境内的军事基地发动袭击时使用了中国卫星数据。

当时，记者就此事询问了中国外交部发言人郭家坤。他表示：“中国一贯严格履行其应尽的国际义务。我们反对利用冲突抹黑中国。”

中国领导人习近平将于周四和周五在华盛顿与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普举行会晤。

尽管有报道称中国政府可能向伊朗提供情报和军事援助，但特朗普政府基本上拒绝公开谴责中国政府对伊朗的任何直接或间接支持。不过，尽管特朗普希望与习近平保持良好关系，但一位美国官员表示，这很可能成为此次国事访问期间的讨论议题。

在约旦袭击事件发生后的几天里，当被问及中国是否向伊朗提供目标定位协助时，国务卿马可·卢比奥拒绝讨论此事。

鲁比奥告诉记者：“中国所做的一切并没有以任何方式改变我们与伊朗冲突的走向。”他补充道：“事实上，在某些情况下，他们还相当合作。”他举例说，中国公开反对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡收费。

伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社/路透社

在冲突期间，特朗普政府一直试图打击中国商业卫星在该地区的活动，官员们警告称，这些活动危及了美军的安全。今年5月，美国政府制裁了三家中国卫星公司，称这些公司提供的图像“使伊朗能够对驻中东美军发动军事打击”。

随着美伊战争进入第七个月，官员们表示，伊朗已调整战场策略，继续威胁美国在该地区的资产，并持续向美国及其盟友施压，迫使其屈服于德黑兰的要求。一位熟悉近期情报评估的消息人士称，伊朗正在“频繁”击落MQ-9“死神”无人机，而且无人机活动警报仍然时有发生。

另一位熟悉近期评估情况的消息人士表示：“他们的情况正在好转，因为我们基本上给了他们更多的时间进行训练。”该消息人士还指出，中国也向伊朗提供了防空系统等援助。

多位官员对美国在低空和中空导弹及无人机攻击面前的明显弱点深感沮丧——这与美国为应对高空导弹而研发的昂贵且高度精密的防空系统截然不同。一位知情人士表示，这迫使美国在中东的一些军事和外交机构部署更多防御措施。

2020年，在特朗普总统第一任期内下令击毙一名伊朗高级将领之后，伊朗证明了自己有能力打击美国在中东的基地。

但多位官员表示，自那以后，其精确打击目标的技术能力已大幅提高。

根据五角大楼监察长最近的一份报告，在战争的最初几个月里，“伊朗的袭击破坏并摧毁了美国在科威特、巴林、卡塔尔、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、阿曼和约旦的基地内的数百栋建筑物和构筑物”。

报告称，伊朗的袭击导致美军在该地区的传统作战方式发生了重大变化。随着伊朗及其代理部队的攻击，中央司令部“转移了人员、资产和仓储设施”。

鉴于伊朗近期有能力重建其军事能力和工业基础，伊朗进口两用部件也引起了美国官员的极大关注。

一位美国官员表示：“如果没有中国的零部件，他们就不太可能继续战斗，道理就这么简单。”

另一位官员补充说，伊朗重建其军事装备的趋势与美国情报机构之前的评估一致，也是特朗普决定在美军完成全部目标清单之前停止全面作战行动的结果。