Do Israelis feel any safer now than they did on October 6, 2023?

Despite having rarely been more secure, public concerns about security continue to dominate the election.

An Israeli tank drives along the ceasefire line between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and Syria [File: Ayal Margolin/Reuters]

Israel’s upcoming general election coincides with the third anniversary of the October 7, 2023 attacks, and the issues that concern voters relate, directly or indirectly, to the wars this event triggered. There is ultra-Orthodox anger about conscription, an economy affected by conflict, and questions of culpability for the Hamas-led assault.

Security issues have dominated Israeli public discourse for the past three years since the genocidal war on Gaza began, during which Israel has killed more than 73,000 Palestinians.

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The war has also seen Israel exchange strikes with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, bomb neighbouring Syria and Lebanon , occupy their territories, and join the United States in launching at least two major attacks on Iran, widely perceived as the country’s main nemesis.

For a public still shaken by the events of October 2023, accompanied by a chorus of public figures warning of Israel’s imminent destruction, there has barely been a day when Israelis have not been reminded that their country is engaged in conflict. Israeli politicians, hungry for votes, have been eager to push this issue to the forefront of their campaigning.

Ayala Panievsky, a lecturer in politics and journalism at City St George’s, University of London and the author of The New Censorship, said national security has always been a primary concern for Israeli voters, and will remain so in this election, with other issues usually taking second place.

“Even when certain parties tried to shift the dial and centre on the economy, or any other issue, it didn’t work. It is too existential in a country entangled in war and conflict, and even stronger now, following the trauma of October 7,” Panievsky told Al Jazeera.

“To this day, Israelis do not feel safe from future attacks by Hamas or Hezbollah, or a nuclear threat from Iran. None of these fronts ended in a win for Israel. Despite Trump’s and Netanyahu’s big promises, none of these threats was eliminated.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech during a Jewish New Year greetings event attended by members of the Likud party [File: AFP]

Ghosts in the machine

Despite anger across the globe over the genocide in Gaza and unilateral strikes on regional states, many believe Israel has never been more secure.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed since the 1990s that Iran was on the brink of achieving nuclear weapons. Today, some analysts believe that Iran’s economy and military are hugely depleted and are entirely preoccupied with its conflict with the US.

Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been ousted , Hezbollah is struggling to hold out against Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, while Hamas’s military capabilities have been severely diminished. The Houthis in Yemen, while making some significant gains on the Red Sea coast, are now entirely focused on fighting government forces and firing rockets at Saudi cities rather than Israeli ones.

Some analysts point out that while these groups still exist, and in some cases are more powerful, they are now embroiled in domestic concerns or managing their own survival rather than planning attacks on Israel.

“An objective military assessment would indicate that, overall, Israel is safer after almost three years of war,” Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, said. “Hamas is beaten, though not destroyed; the same with Hezbollah, while dealing with Iran is done mainly by the United States. There are forward buffer zones in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.”

But despite these apparent gains, it seems that Israelis feel more insecure than before October 7, 2023, a day that highlighted that the security and intelligence services, which for generations had been the pride of the Israeli political establishment, are in fact fallible.

An even greater threat lies closer to home. An increase in Israeli military operations since October 2023 and a more emboldened and violent settler movement have made the occupied West Bank a tinderbox.

“[In the] West Bank, Israel lost control over the settlers who provoke the Palestinians on a daily basis. I can see a third Palestinian Intifada on the horizon. When it starts, it will be difficult to stop,” Bregman said.

Explosions that Israel says destroyed key underground infrastructure built by Iran-backed Hezbollah on the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon [File: Israeli army via AFP]

The two main frontrunners in the election – Netanyahu and Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot – continue to frame Israel as simultaneously victorious against its enemies and under threat from them.

In July, Netanyahu hinted at a “forever wars” scenario, despite his repeated boasts of Israeli military successes since October 2023.

“It’s never over. If you want to live in the Middle East – and in the world – you must be very strong,” he said.

Earlier this week, Netanyahu claimed his leadership had rewritten the political geography of the Middle East. But he also framed this as an existential battle for Israel’s survival and that he had “saved the State of Israel from destruction”.

In the heat of a bitterly contested election, few of Israel’s opposition figures have been eager to correct the “threat” narrative Netanyahu has promoted. Some claim that Hamas is rearming and preparing to strike at Israel once again, or call for new attacks on Iran to temper Hezbollah’s resistance to Israeli encroachment in Lebanon’s south.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett claimed in August that Hamas was rearming, digging tunnels and ‘training for the next massacre’ [File: Ronen Zvulun/Reuters]

Lev Grinberg, a professor of sociology at Ben Gurion University, told Al Jazeera that what is being debated in this election are the security and diplomatic failings over the past three years.

“The question of security or insecurity is a political question, not a question of Israel’s military capacities. Israeli society is very deeply divided between the present Government coalition and those that are against it,” he said.

There has been broad media coverage over reports that Netanyahu had received intelligence from the United Arab Emirates before the October 2023 Hamas-led attack, which has been strongly denied by both parties.

Netanyahu has also been criticised for his refusal to hold an independent inquiry into his own failings before October 7, and his longstanding strategy of finances entering Gaza.

It is a high-stakes election for both parties, with the prime minister likely fearful that losing would strengthen the corruption case against him, while the opposition will be concerned about an emboldened Netanyahu if he does win.

“After the approaching elections, the losing camp will feel very insecure. There already is an atmosphere of terror [for] the opposition,” Grinberg said.

尽管安全形势鲜有比现在更安全的时期，但公众对安全的担忧仍然主导着此次选举。

一辆以色列坦克沿着以色列占领的戈兰高地和叙利亚之间的停火线行驶。[图片：Ayal Margolin/路透社]

以色列即将举行的大选恰逢2023年10月7日袭击事件三周年，选民关注的问题或直接或间接地与该事件引发的战争有关。极端正统派犹太教徒对征兵制度感到愤怒，经济受到冲突的影响，以及对哈马斯领导的袭击事件的责任归属等问题都引发了广泛关注。

自以色列对加沙发动种族灭绝战争以来，过去三年来，安全问题一直是以色列公共话语的主导议题。在加沙战争期间，以色列杀害了超过 73,000 名巴勒斯坦人。

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NAZA 的 4 个问题之 3：为什么加沙的旧指控在以色列引发了新的愤怒？

列表 4/4：有关以色列军队兵力、装备短缺的报道背后究竟隐藏着什么？

战争期间，以色列还与也门胡塞武装交火，轰炸邻国叙利亚和黎巴嫩，占领其领土，并与美国一起对伊朗发动了至少两次重大袭击，伊朗被广泛认为是以色列的主要宿敌。

对于仍未从2023年10月事件的阴影中走出来的以色列民众而言，再加上众多公众人物警告以色列即将毁灭，几乎每天都会提醒以色列人，他们的国家正深陷冲突之中。渴望选票的以色列政客们也急于将这一问题推到竞选活动的首要位置。

伦敦城市圣乔治大学政治与新闻学讲师、著有《新审查制度》一书的阿亚拉·帕涅夫斯基表示，国家安全一直是以色列选民的首要关注点，在这次选举中也将继续如此，其他问题通常处于次要地位。

“即使某些政党试图转移话题，将重点放在经济或其他问题上，也无济于事。在一个深陷战争和冲突的国家，尤其是在经历了10月7日的创伤之后，这个问题更加严峻，关乎国家存亡，”帕尼耶夫斯基告诉半岛电视台。

“时至今日，以色列人仍然感到无法免受哈马斯或真主党的袭击，也无法抵御伊朗的核威胁。这些战线最终都没有以以色列的胜利告终。尽管特朗普和内塔尼亚胡都做出了种种承诺，但这些威胁一个也没有消除。”

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在利库德集团成员出席的犹太新年问候活动上发表讲话。[图片：法新社]

机器中的幽灵

尽管全球对加沙种族灭绝和对地区国家的单方面打击感到愤怒，但许多人认为以色列从未像现在这样安全。

自上世纪90年代以来，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡一直声称伊朗即将拥有核武器。如今，一些分析人士认为，伊朗的经济和军事实力已严重削弱，并且完全被与美国的冲突所困扰。

叙利亚前总统巴沙尔·阿萨德已被推翻，真主党在黎巴嫩南部苦苦抵抗以色列的进攻，而哈马斯的军事能力也已大幅削弱。也门胡塞武装虽然在红海沿岸取得了一些重大进展，但现在他们的全部精力都集中在与政府军作战以及向沙特阿拉伯城市发射火箭弹上，而不是以色列。

一些分析人士指出，虽然这些组织仍然存在，而且在某些情况下更加强大，但它们现在正忙于处理国内事务或应对自身的生存问题，而不是策划对以色列的袭击。

“客观的军事评估表明，总体而言，经过近三年的战争，以色列的安全状况有所改善，”以色列安全分析师、伦敦国王学院高级研究员阿伦·布雷格曼表示。“哈马斯虽然被击败，但并未被彻底消灭；真主党的情况也类似，而应对伊朗主要由美国负责。加沙、黎巴嫩和叙利亚都设有前沿缓冲区。”

但尽管取得了这些明显的进展，以色列人似乎比 2023 年 10 月 7 日之前更加没有安全感。这一天凸显了安全和情报部门——以色列政治机构几代人的骄傲——实际上是会犯错的。

更大的威胁近在眼前。自2023年10月以来，以色列军事行动的增加以及定居者运动的日益猖獗和暴力化，已使被占领的西岸地区成为一枚随时可能引爆的火药桶。

布雷格曼说：“在西岸，以色列已经失去了对定居者的控制，这些定居者每天都在挑衅巴勒斯坦人。我预见到第三次巴勒斯坦大起义即将爆发。一旦爆发，将很难阻止。”

以色列方面称，爆炸摧毁了伊朗支持的真主党在黎巴嫩南部战略要地阿里·塔赫尔山脊上修建的关键地下基础设施。[图片：以色列军方/法新社]

此次选举的两大领跑者——内塔尼亚胡和亚沙尔党领导人加迪·艾森科特——继续将以色列描绘成既战胜了敌人，又受到敌人威胁。

尽管内塔尼亚胡自 2023 年 10 月以来一再吹嘘以色列的军事胜利，但他在 7 月份还是暗示了“永无止境的战争”的局面。

“一切远未结束。如果你想在中东乃至全世界生存下去，你必须非常强大，”他说。

本周早些时候，内塔尼亚胡声称他的领导重塑了中东的政治格局。但他同时也把这场斗争描述为以色列生死存亡之战，并表示他“拯救了以色列国免于毁灭”。

在竞争激烈的选举白热化阶段，以色列反对派人士鲜少有人愿意纠正内塔尼亚胡所宣扬的“威胁”论调。一些人声称哈马斯正在重新武装，准备再次袭击以色列，或者呼吁对伊朗发动新的袭击，以削弱真主党对以色列在黎巴嫩南部扩张的抵抗。

前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特在8月份声称，哈马斯正在重新武装、挖掘地道并“为下一次大屠杀进行训练”。[图片：罗南·祖伦/路透社]

本古里安大学社会学教授列夫·格林伯格告诉半岛电视台，这次选举中争论的焦点是过去三年来的安全和外交失误。

他说：“安全与否是一个政治问题，而不是以色列军事能力的问题。以色列社会在现任执政联盟和反对派之间存在着非常深刻的分歧。”

媒体广泛报道了有关内塔尼亚胡在 2023 年 10 月哈马斯领导的袭击之前从阿拉伯联合酋长国获得情报的报道，但双方都强烈否认了这一说法。

内塔尼亚胡还因拒绝在 10 月 7 日之前对其自身失职行为进行独立调查以及长期以来向加沙输送资金的策略而受到批评。

对于双方而言，这是一场至关重要的选举。总理可能担心败选会加强对他的腐败指控，而反对派则担心如果内塔尼亚胡获胜，他会变得更加胆大妄为。

格林伯格说：“选举临近，落败阵营会感到非常没有安全感。反对派现在已经生活在恐惧之中。”