How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war

The oil and gas sector shrank 26 percent, new official data shows, pointing to the costs of the US-Israel war on Iran.

People go shopping in a bazaar in southern Tehran, Iran, September 14, 2026 [Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA]

Amid the US-Israel war on Iran, the country’s economy has suffered a sharp contraction, with its crucial oil and gas sector taking the biggest hit as the United States tightens its economic and military pressure on Tehran.

Data released by the government-administered Statistical Center of Iran showed gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 10.1 percent year-on-year between March 21 and June 20, the first quarter of the Persian calendar.

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The period covers the opening months of the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28.

The economic downturn has come as Iran struggles to export its oil, one of its most important sources of foreign currency, while also contending with high inflation, a weakening rial, and disruptions to trade and industry.

Here is what you need to know:

What does the economic data say?

The headline GDP number masks an even steeper decline in Iran’s energy industry. Crude oil and natural gas activity contracted by 26.4 percent compared with the same period a year earlier. GDP excluding oil, by comparison, fell by 4.6 percent.

The damage has spread beyond the energy sector. Industry and mining contracted by 14.7 percent, services declined by 4.8 percent, and manufacturing contracted by 2.5 percent. Agriculture was the exception, growing at 2.3 percent.

Those figures come amid an already difficult economic situation in the country. Earlier this month, Iran’s 12-month average inflation reached 69.9 percent, while food, beverage, and tobacco prices rose at nearly twice that rate. Official unemployment climbed to 9.1 percent in the spring.

The rial, meanwhile, fell from about one million to the US dollar a year earlier to more than 2.2 million in early September.

What is the latest with Iran’s oil exports?

Iran’s ability to sell crude has been dramatically curtailed by the US naval blockade, imposed for most of the war.

Iranian crude and condensate loadings collapsed from about two million barrels per day in March to roughly 740,000bpd in July and just 220,000-255,000bpd in August, according to estimates from Kpler and Vortexa.

TankerTrackers.com told the Reuters news agency that 29 tankers, carrying 36.11 million barrels of crude, were trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Vortexa estimated total Iranian crude afloat had fallen from 135 million barrels at the end of July to 107 million barrels by late August.

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By several economic measures, Washington’s pressure campaign is inflicting damage on Iran’s economy.

On September 6, total trade had fallen by 25 to 35 percent, President Masoud Pezeshkian said, with imports hit harder than exports. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has made it hard for ships carrying imports to reach Iranian ports.

Tehran has also explicitly linked the end of the war to economic relief. Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei told Al Jazeera on Saturday that its conditions include “the release of our frozen funds and an end to the naval blockade”.

In addition to the naval blockade, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last month announced an economic pressure campaign against Iran, pledging to target its financial interests across the world. He said the US would target all of Iran’s sources of revenue, including oil, to prevent other countries and companies from doing business with Tehran.

The US-Israeli attacks and Iran’s retaliations have disrupted Tehran’s trade with one of its main economic partners, the United Arab Emirates.

The UAE last month announced an indefinite trade embargo on Iran after accusing its forces of carrying out several ballistic missile attacks, which Tehran denied, calling it a “false flag operation” by Israel and the US.

Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG Group, said, “Most wars are contests of stamina more than anything else.”

“The 10 percent drop in Iranian GDP is a sign that the US is succeeding in putting pressure on its foe. But the question rests, as it has done since March, on whether Iran can weather the fall in economic activity better than the US can stand the surge in energy costs,” he told Al Jazeera.

“For a regime prepared to do anything to stay in power, this news will make little difference, so long as the security forces remain loyal,” he added.

What is the latest with diplomatic efforts to end the war?

While Iran has taken a defiant stance against US economic and military pressure, it has indicated repeatedly that it remains open to diplomatic means to end the nearly seven-month-old war.

On Saturday, Rezaei told Al Jazeera that Iran conveyed a formal set of conditions to Washington through Qatari mediators for ending the war.

Iranian state media outlet IRNA reported on Monday that Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi was set to visit Tehran, without specifying the agenda or other details.

Mediators Qatar and Pakistan have been working to re-establish negotiations between the two sides since their memorandum of understanding (MoU) expired last month.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will stop briefly in Qatar before going to New York for the UN General Assembly, IRNA reported.

Iran has repeatedly said it remains ready for any new strikes by Washington.

Rezaei said on Saturday Tehran did not rule out a new US strike against Iran, calling the possibility “very much on the cards” based on his country’s military assessments.

Mark Pfeifle, a Republican strategist and former White House and national security official, said Iran and the US are still willing to strike a deal.

“Sometimes in diplomacy it’s what’s taken off the table,” he told Al Jazeera.

Pfeifle said when Rezaei reiterated his demands for talks with the US, he spoke of “ending the blockade, releasing the frozen funds [and] stopping the attacks”.

“But he left off reparations and reconstruction money, which tells me that there’s a concrete sign that amongst all the rhetoric, which is still very strident, that the pressure campaign that the US is putting on Iran is having some effect,” he said.

“And it tells me that both sides are still looking for room to negotiate in the coming weeks.”

最新官方数据显示，石油和天然气行业萎缩了 26%，这表明美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争的代价。

2026年9月14日，人们在伊朗德黑兰南部的一个集市上购物。[Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA]

在美以对伊朗的战争中，伊朗经济遭受了严重萎缩，其中至关重要的石油和天然气行业受到的打击最大，因为美国加大了对德黑兰的经济和军事压力。

伊朗政府统计中心发布的数据显示，在波斯历第一季度（3月21日至6月20日），伊朗国内生产总值（GDP）同比下降了10.1%。

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这段时期涵盖了美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争的最初几个月，这场战争始于2月28日。

伊朗经济衰退之际，该国正努力出口石油（石油是其最重要的外汇来源之一），同时还要应对高通胀、里亚尔贬值以及贸易和工业中断等问题。

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经济数据显示什么？

表面上的GDP数据掩盖了伊朗能源行业更为严重的下滑。原油和天然气生产活动同比萎缩了26.4%。相比之下，剔除石油行业的GDP下降了4.6%。

这场危机的影响已蔓延至能源领域之外。工业和采矿业萎缩了14.7%，服务业下降了4.8%，制造业萎缩了2.5%。农业是个例外，增长了2.3%。

这些数据是在伊朗本已严峻的经济形势下发布的。本月初，伊朗过去12个月的平均通货膨胀率达到69.9%，而食品、饮料和烟草价格的涨幅几乎是通货膨胀率的两倍。今年春季，官方失业率攀升至9.1%。

与此同时，里亚尔兑美元汇率从一年前的约 100 万里亚尔兑 1 美元跌至 9 月初的超过 220 万里亚尔兑 1 美元。

伊朗石油出口的最新情况如何？

由于美国在战争期间实施了海上封锁，伊朗出售原油的能力受到了极大的限制。

根据 Kpler 和 Vortexa 的估计，伊朗原油和凝析油的装载量从 3 月份的每天约 200 万桶骤降至 7 月份的每天约 74 万桶，8 月份更是仅为每天 22 万至 25.5 万桶。

TankerTrackers.com告诉路透社，29艘油轮，载有3611万桶原油，被困在霍尔木兹海峡。与此同时，Vortexa估计，伊朗海上原油总量已从7月底的1.35亿桶降至8月底的1.07亿桶。

特朗普在对伊朗的经济战中是否取得了胜利？

从多项经济指标来看，华盛顿的施压行动正在对伊朗经济造成损害。

9月6日，伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安表示，伊朗贸易总额下降了25%至35%，其中进口受到的冲击比出口更大。美国封锁霍尔木兹海峡，使得运载进口货物的船只难以抵达伊朗港口。

德黑兰方面也明确表示，结束战争与经济援助挂钩。伊朗安全部长穆赫辛·雷扎伊周六告诉半岛电视台，伊朗的条件包括“解冻我们被冻结的资金，以及结束海上封锁”。

除了海上封锁外，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上个月还宣布对伊朗发起经济施压行动，誓言要打击其在全球的金融利益。他表示，美国将打击伊朗的所有收入来源，包括石油，以阻止其他国家和公司与德黑兰进行商业往来。

美国和以色列的袭击以及伊朗的报复行动扰乱了德黑兰与其主要经济伙伴之一——阿拉伯联合酋长国的贸易。

阿联酋上个月宣布对伊朗实施无限期贸易禁运，此前阿联酋指责伊朗军队发动了数次弹道导弹袭击。德黑兰否认了这些指控，称这是以色列和美国发动的“伪旗行动”。

IG集团市场分析师克里斯·比彻姆表示：“大多数战争与其说是战争，不如说是耐力的较量。”

“伊朗GDP下降10%表明美国正在成功地向其对手施压。但问题仍然在于，就像自3月份以来一直存在的问题一样，伊朗能否比美国更好地承受经济活动的下滑，以及美国能否更好地承受能源成本的飙升，”他告诉半岛电视台。

“对于一个为了保住权力不择手段的政权来说，只要安全部队保持忠诚，这条消息就不会产生太大影响，”他补充道。

结束战争的外交努力最新进展如何？

尽管伊朗对美国的经济和军事压力采取了强硬立场，但它一再表示，仍然愿意通过外交手段结束这场持续近七个月的战争。

周六，雷扎伊告诉半岛电视台，伊朗通过卡塔尔调解人向华盛顿正式提出了一系列结束战争的条件。

伊朗国家通讯社伊通社周一报道称，巴基斯坦内政部长莫辛·纳克维将访问德黑兰，但没有具体说明访问议程或其他细节。

自上个月谅解备忘录到期以来，调解方卡塔尔和巴基斯坦一直在努力恢复双方之间的谈判。

据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社（IRNA）报道，伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇将在前往纽约参加联合国大会之前短暂访问卡塔尔。

伊朗多次表示，已做好应对华盛顿任何新一轮袭击的准备。

雷扎伊周六表示，德黑兰不排除美国对伊朗发动新的袭击，并称根据伊朗的军事评估，这种可能性“非常大”。

共和党策略师、前白宫和国家安全官员马克·普费弗尔表示，伊朗和美国仍然愿意达成协议。

“有时候，外交中最重要的是哪些议题被排除在外，”他告诉半岛电视台。

普费弗尔说，当雷扎伊重申他与美国进行谈判的要求时，他谈到了“结束封锁、解冻资金和停止袭击”。

“但他没有提及赔偿和重建资金，这告诉我，尽管言辞依然非常激烈，但有一个具体的迹象表明，美国对伊朗施加的压力正在产生一些效果，”他说。

“这说明双方仍在寻找未来几周的谈判空间。”