As US steers clear of Yemen fight, the Iran-backed Houthis launch next phase of campaign

Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

In the last month, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen have joined the Middle East conflict in dramatic fashion – capturing a swathe of the Red Sea coastline, sending missiles and drones against Saudi energy infrastructure and even targeting the Saudi capital Riyadh on the weekend.

Now their campaign appears to be entering a new phase, with a major offensive aimed at cutting off government forces in a central part of Yemen.

Their ultimate goal – according to some analysts – is control of the entire country.

The latest Houthi advance comes as Saudi Arabia deploys fighter jets and missiles in an effort to stem the militant group’s progress south towards the port city of Aden, where Yemen’s internationally-recognized government is based.

Saudi appeals for US airstrikes to reverse Houthi gains have fallen on deaf ears, according to a regional diplomatic source.

The Houthis have already seized a long stretch of the Yemeni coastline adjacent to the Red Sea – one of the world’s most important waterways – and control the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint at its southern end.

Now, they are trying to take control of the mountainous region of Taiz, which includes important routes for government forces.

“Cutting these routes would threaten a key transport and supply connection between government-held areas,” according to Yemen analyst Mohammed al-Basha.

The Houthis have run into stiff resistance from local tribes, Basha told CNN.

The battlefield situation remains fluid, according to Basha, and the risk remains that the Houthis will be able to surround the city of Taiz. But it appears that defenses have not experienced a collapse comparable to what was seen on the west coast front, when a large area – including the port of Mocha – fell within hours.

Basha added that, as of Monday, a critical road junction connecting Taiz and Aden in an area hosting hundreds of thousands of internally-displaced people remains in government hands.

There is also heavy fighting further east, according to several Yemen analysts, in the province of Marib near the border with Saudi Arabia. Marib is an oil-rich region long in the Houthis’ sights.

Yemeni government forces have used artillery and rocket systems – supported by Saudi airstrikes of growing intensity – to repel Houthi forces in the region, according to analysts, and a senior commander claimed that his troops had now gone on the offensive.

“The Houthis likely seek to capture the area in order to try to extract and export oil through the Red Sea, which could fund Houthi political and military activities,” according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think-tank, on Friday.

“Taiz and Marib cities are the bastions of north Yemen and if the Houthis capture both it is game over – but their defenders are putting up a strong fight,” Basha told CNN.

It’s unclear whether the Houthis intend to put pressure on Aden itself. Much will depend on the ability of government forces to improve coordination after the disastrous western shore retreat.

“The Houthis do not need to defeat Saudi Arabia militarily and near certainly cannot,” says Ibrahim Jalal of the Middle East Institute in Washington.

“They, however, need to influence how much financing, intelligence, logistics, air defence and potentially airpower Riyadh is prepared to commit to the Yemeni Armed Forces capable of reversing their gains on the ground.”

To that end, Jalal told CNN, the Houthis are avoiding getting bogged down in urban fighting and trying to encircle government forces.

CNN has contacted Houthi officials for comment.

Houthi Military Media/Handout/Reuters

Frustration grows as Houthis widen Middle East conflict with US unwilling to intervene

The New York Times reported Monday that, after a call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last week, US President Donald Trump had agreed to launch air strikes against the Houthis. But Trump changed his mind on Sunday, according to the Times.

Last week, Trump said the Houthis “let us know they don’t want to fight with us,” adding that they were allowing “most ships” to pass through the Bab al Mandeb strait but were “unhappy” with one country – obviously Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis said two months ago that they would attack Saudi shipping.

“Trump’s best option is to stay out of the Yemen quagmire as remote warfare won’t change the equilibrium on the ground while widening supply chain disruption,” according to Andreas Krieg, CEO of London-based political risk firm MENA Analytica. “It would also derail the Iran and Hormuz diplomatic track,” Krieg wrote on X Monday.

However, the “inconsistency in the US position vis-à-vis Tehran’s proxies means that the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia have had to handle the Houthis largely on their own,” Fatima Abo Alasrar , a Yemeni analyst, wrote in a piece for the Stimson Center, a US research institute.

So far, Saudi Arabia does not appear to have invoked its recently agreed trilateral defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey. And Turkish officials have been careful not to offer too much.

A strategic island in the Red Sea is taken by Houthi rebels.

Iranian allies captured a strategic Red Sea island in a vital waterway. Here’s what to know

“We see there are very serious attacks on Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity, sovereignty,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hasan Fidan said on Saturday, referring to Houthi drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia.

“We are in serious solidarity on this point… They may have some military needs, especially on some technical issues. We would have no issues in meeting these,” Fidan told Turkish channel NTV.

“Saudi Arabia is discovering how alone it is in a moment of need,” analyst Natiq Malikzada said Monday. “For years, it built its security around the hope that Washington would defend it.”

“For the US, as for any other country in times like this, Saudi security matters less when American interests are not directly at risk,” Malikzada wrote on X.

Jalal says the Saudis can count on some support from regional allies and Pakistan, and potentially from Egypt.

But for now they bear the lion’s share of the burden.

AFPTV/AFP/Getty Images

Iran is banking on the Houthis as its “last resilient proxy to improve its bargaining position and leverage, while the Houthis now seek to consolidate gains and expand territorially, as well as intensify attacks into Saudi Arabia, to redraw the rules of the game,” Jalal wrote in the online publication Al Majalla.

The Houthis “will continue to punish Saudis till they get their multi-billion dollar reparations fund,” Basha told CNN Monday. They have long insisted on Saudi compensation for the long blockade against Yemeni territory they hold.

But Houthi ambitions may go further. Jalal says their ultimate goal is control of all of Yemen.

Javan Online, an Iranian publication affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), recently suggested the Houthis were close to unifying Yemen under a “single center of power.”

In so doing they would become a regional force capable of making their opponents negotiate over Red Sea security and the future of the Arabian Peninsula itself, the Javan commentary said.

That is Saudi Arabia’s nightmare.

CNN’s Nadeen Ebrahim contributed reporting.

Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

上个月，伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装以惊人的方式加入了中东冲突——占领了红海沿岸的大片地区，向沙特能源基础设施发射导弹和无人机，甚至在周末袭击了沙特首都利雅得。

现在他们的行动似乎进入了一个新阶段，一场旨在切断也门中部地区政府军退路的大规模攻势。

一些分析人士认为，他们的最终目标是控制整个国家。

胡塞武装最新推进之际，沙特阿拉伯部署了战斗机和导弹，试图阻止该武装组织向南推进至港口城市亚丁，也门国际公认的政府所在地。

据一位地区外交消息人士透露，沙特阿拉伯呼吁美国进行空袭以扭转胡塞武装的攻势，但这一呼吁并未得到回应。

胡塞武装已经占领了也门红海沿岸的大片海岸线——红海是世界上最重要的水道之一——并控制了其南端的曼德海峡咽喉要道。

现在，他们正试图控制塔伊兹山区，那里有政府军的重要通道。

也门分析人士穆罕默德·巴沙表示：“切断这些路线将威胁到政府控制区之间的一条关键运输和供应通道。”

巴沙告诉CNN，胡塞武装遭到了当地部落的顽强抵抗。

巴沙表示，战场局势依然瞬息万变，胡塞武装仍有可能包围塔伊兹市。但目前看来，胡塞武装的防御体系尚未出现像西海岸战线那样的崩溃——当时包括摩卡港在内的大片地区在数小时内便陷落。

巴沙补充说，截至周一，连接塔伊兹和亚丁的重要道路交叉口（该地区收容了数十万境内流离失所者）仍然由政府控制。

据几位也门分析人士称，在更东部的马里卜省，靠近沙特阿拉伯边境的地区，战斗也十分激烈。马里卜是一个石油资源丰富的地区，长期以来一直是胡塞武装的目标。

分析人士称，也门政府军利用火炮和火箭系统，在沙特阿拉伯日益猛烈的空袭支持下，击退了该地区的胡塞武装。一位高级指挥官声称，他的部队现在已经转入进攻。

据华盛顿智库战争研究所周五表示，“胡塞武装很可能试图占领该地区，以便通过红海开采和出口石油，这可以为胡塞武装的政治和军事活动提供资金。”

巴沙告诉CNN：“塔伊兹和马里卜是也门北部的堡垒，如果胡塞武装占领了这两座城市，那就完了——但他们的守军正在进行顽强抵抗。”

目前尚不清楚胡塞武装是否打算直接向亚丁施压。很大程度上取决于政府军在西部海岸惨败后能否改善协调。

“胡塞武装不需要在军事上击败沙特阿拉伯，而且几乎肯定不可能击败沙特阿拉伯，”华盛顿中东研究所的易卜拉欣·贾拉勒说。

“然而，他们需要影响利雅得准备向也门武装部队投入多少资金、情报、后勤、防空以及可能的空中力量，以扭转他们在地面取得的战果。”

为此，贾拉勒告诉 CNN，胡塞武装正在避免陷入城市巷战，并试图包围政府军。

CNN已联系胡塞武装官员寻求置评。

胡塞武装媒体/供稿/路透社

随着胡塞武装扩大中东冲突，而美国又不愿介入，民众的沮丧情绪日益加剧。

《纽约时报》周一报道称，美国总统特朗普上周接到沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的电话后，同意对胡塞武装发动空袭。但据《纽约时报》报道，特朗普在周日改变了主意。

上周，特朗普表示，胡塞武装“让我们知道他们不想和我们打仗”，并补充说，他们允许“大多数船只”通过曼德海峡，但对一个国家“不满”——显然是沙特阿拉伯。

两个月前，胡塞武装曾扬言要袭击沙特航运。

总部位于伦敦的政治风险咨询公司MENA Analytica的首席执行官安德烈亚斯·克里格表示：“特朗普的最佳选择是置身也门泥潭之外，因为远程战争不会改变当地的局势平衡，反而会加剧供应链中断。”克里格周一在X网站上撰文指出：“这还会破坏伊朗和霍尔木兹海峡的外交进程。”

然而，也门分析人士法蒂玛·阿布·阿拉斯拉尔在美国研究机构史汀生中心的一篇文章中写道：“美国对德黑兰代理人的立场前后矛盾，这意味着也门政府和沙特阿拉伯不得不主要依靠自身力量来应对胡塞武装。”

迄今为止，沙特阿拉伯似乎尚未启用其近期与巴基斯坦和土耳其达成的三边防御条约。而土耳其官员也一直谨慎行事，没有透露太多信息。

胡塞武装占领了红海中一座具有战略意义的岛屿。

伊朗盟友占领了红海一条重要水道上的一座战略岛屿。以下是您需要了解的内容。

土耳其外交部长哈桑·菲丹周六表示：“我们看到沙特阿拉伯的领土完整和主权正遭受非常严重的攻击。”他指的是胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的无人机和导弹袭击。

“我们在这个问题上完全团结一致……他们可能有一些军事需求，尤其是在一些技术问题上。我们完全有能力满足这些需求，”菲丹告诉土耳其NTV电视台。

“沙特阿拉伯正在意识到，在危难之际，它是多么孤立无援，”分析师纳提克·马利克扎达周一表示。“多年来，沙特阿拉伯一直寄希望于华盛顿会保护它，以此构建自身的安全保障。”

“对于美国来说，就像对于任何其他国家在这样的时期一样，当美国的利益没有直接受到威胁时，沙特的安全就显得不那么重要了，”马利克扎达在 X 上写道。

贾拉勒表示，沙特阿拉伯可以指望得到地区盟友和巴基斯坦的一些支持，还有可能得到埃及的支持。

但就目前而言，他们承担了大部分的负担。

法新社/法新社/盖蒂图片社

贾拉勒在网络出版物《Al Majalla》上写道，伊朗指望胡塞武装作为其“最后一个有韧性的代理人，以改善其谈判地位和影响力，而胡塞武装现在寻求巩固成果并扩大领土，同时加大对沙特阿拉伯的袭击力度，以重新制定游戏规则”。

巴沙周一告诉CNN，胡塞武装“将继续惩罚沙特，直到他们收到数十亿美元的赔偿金”。长期以来，胡塞武装一直坚持要求沙特就其长期封锁也门领土一事进行赔偿。

但胡塞武装的野心可能远不止于此。贾拉勒表示，他们的最终目标是控制整个也门。

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队 (IRGC) 旗下的伊朗出版物《Javan Online》最近暗示，胡塞武装即将把也门统一在一个“单一权力中心”之下。

《爪哇报》评论称，这样做，他们将成为一支区域力量，能够迫使他们的对手就红海安全和阿拉伯半岛的未来进行谈判。

那是沙特阿拉伯的噩梦。

CNN记者纳丁·易卜拉欣对此报道亦有贡献。