Russia’s parliamentary election results were predictable but what comes next matters

Ekaterina Shtukina/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool/AP

The result of Russia’s tightly controlled parliamentary election was never in serious doubt: a resounding win for the ruling United Russia party, which fervently backs President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The fact that genuine political opposition to the Kremlin and its costly war has been effectively silenced in recent years made the outcome of the ballot – the first parliamentary elections since 2021, before the Ukraine war began – all the more inevitable. The only remaining opposition party calling for an end to the war, Yabloko, was barred from taking part.

Even before the vote, Putin told Russians the election would showcase national unity and that “millions of people are backing our fighters” – a sign of his confidence in the result.

The nationwide election has also been used to underline that Russia – unlike Ukraine – is prepared to hold a vote in wartime, which may curry favor with US President Donald Trump, who has criticized Kyiv’s constitutional ban on elections during martial law.

But what was always far less certain than the outcome of this Russian vote, and potentially more significant, is how a fresh veneer of political support would be used and what course of action the Kremlin will push next.

The mere staging of a nationwide vote – across 11 Russian time zones and in annexed regions occupied by Russian forces in Ukraine – has been cast in Russia as a sign of normalcy, which is important to the Kremlin as it grapples with an escalating war.

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Amid soaring casualties on the front lines, mounting economic hardship and rising public anxiety, the reality of what Russia calls its Special Military Operation in Ukraine is increasingly being felt.

Yet with the relentless Ukrainian drone strikes – including the biggest wave ever launched against the Moscow region as voting took place this weekend – the Kremlin has been at pains to reassure Russians that life goes on largely unaffected.

But that reassurance may become harder to sustain as pressure builds on Russia’s war machine, and the Kremlin vows to press ahead with achieving its military objectives in Ukraine, whatever the cost.

One of the sharpest fears, as the Kremlin pushes to break the frontline deadlock, is that the Kremlin will use its claim of a fresh mandate to launch a new round of forced mobilization into the depleting ranks of the Russian military.

A chaotic partial mobilization in September 2022 saw about 300,000 men called up, sparking widespread anger and the panicked exodus through gridlocked border checkpoints of hundreds of thousands of Russians desperate to escape the draft.

The Kremlin has since tightened border controls, making it harder to flee. But it has also dismissed outright concerns of a repeat as scaremongering, with Putin himself categorically denying there is a general call-up plan, lambasting the speculation as “complete nonsense” and an “information attack on Russia.”

Given that personal insistence, the election – in which 49 veterans of the Ukraine war were elected – is more likely to be used as evidence that Russia rewards its soldiers with plum political jobs, as a means of boosting voluntary recruitment.

Still, some cautious Russians of military age, fearing a U-turn, are leaving the country just in case, mindful that the dire need for fresh troops could eventually outweigh the Kremlin’s urge to avoid public outrage.

There are heightened concerns of other measures in the offing too – from a renewed military push in Ukraine to further tightening of social and economic controls at home – by a Kremlin that feels like the resounding parliamentary election result has delivered renewed authority to act.

叶卡捷琳娜·什图基娜/人造卫星/克里姆林宫泳池/美联社

俄罗斯受到严格控制的议会选举结果从未有过真正的疑问：执政的统一俄罗斯党取得了压倒性胜利，该党狂热支持总统弗拉基米尔·普京和俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争。

近年来，真正反对克里姆林宫及其代价高昂的战争的政治力量已被有效压制，这使得此次选举——自2021年乌克兰战争爆发前举行的首次议会选举——的结果更加在意料之中。唯一一个呼吁结束战争的反对党“亚博卢党”被禁止参选。

甚至在投票之前，普京就告诉俄罗斯人，这次选举将展现民族团结，“数百万人民正在支持我们的战士”——这表明他对选举结果充满信心。

此次全国选举也被用来强调，俄罗斯——与乌克兰不同——准备在战时举行选举，这可能会赢得美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的好感，特朗普曾批评基辅在戒严期间禁止选举的宪法规定。

但比这次俄罗斯投票结果更不确定，也可能更重要的，是新获得的政治支持将如何被利用，以及克里姆林宫接下来会采取什么行动。

在俄罗斯，仅仅是举行一次覆盖11个俄罗斯时区以及被俄罗斯军队占领的乌克兰地区的全国性投票，就被视为恢复正常的标志，这对正努力应对不断升级的战争的克里姆林宫来说至关重要。

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随着前线伤亡人数激增、经济困难加剧以及公众焦虑情绪上升，俄罗斯所谓的在乌克兰开展的“特别军事行动”的现实正日益显现。

然而，尽管乌克兰无人机发动了持续不断的袭击——包括本周末投票期间对莫斯科地区发动的有史以来最大规模的袭击——克里姆林宫仍然竭力向俄罗斯人保证，生活基本不受影响。

但随着俄罗斯战争机器面临的压力越来越大，这种保证可能越来越难以维持，克里姆林宫誓言无论付出多大代价都要继续推进其在乌克兰的军事目标。

随着克里姆林宫努力打破前线僵局，人们最担心的是，克里姆林宫会利用其声称获得的新授权，对日渐萎缩的俄罗斯军队发起新一轮强制动员。

2022 年 9 月，俄罗斯进行了一次混乱的部分动员，约有 30 万名男性被征召入伍，引发了广泛的愤怒，数十万俄罗斯人惊慌失措地涌向拥堵的边境检查站，试图逃避征兵。

此后，克里姆林宫加强了边境管制，使逃离更加困难。但它也断然否认了有关事件重演的担忧，称其为危言耸听。普京本人也断然否认存在全面征召计划，并抨击这些猜测是“彻头彻尾的无稽之谈”和“对俄罗斯的信息攻击”。

鉴于这种个人坚持，这次选举——其中 49 名乌克兰战争老兵当选——更有可能被用作俄罗斯以优渥的政治职位奖励其士兵的证据，以此来促进自愿征兵。

不过，一些谨慎的适龄俄罗斯人担心政策会逆转，所以选择离开俄罗斯，以防万一。他们意识到，对新兵的迫切需求最终可能会超过克里姆林宫避免公众愤怒的意愿。

人们也越来越担心其他措施即将出台——从在乌克兰重新发动军事攻势到进一步收紧国内的社会和经济管制——克里姆林宫认为，压倒性的议会选举结果赋予了它新的行动权力。