Italian defense-spending rise may underwhelm new US leader

ROME — Italy’s defense spending is rising at a steady rate but is unlikely to be fast enough for Donald Trump.

With weeks to go before Trump returns to the White House, Rome remains one of the dwindling number of NATO members who have not hit the target they set themselves a decade ago of spending two percent of GDP on defense.

That could put Italy and others firmly back in the crosshairs of the next U.S. president, who looks set to be even keener to cut back on what he considers American largesse overseas.

Italy is to spend €29.18 billion ($30.89) on defense this year, a decent rise on last year’s €27.75 billion, defense minister Guido Crosetto told the Italian senate this month.

But this is only 1.54 percent of GDP, he added.

Despite this year’s defense budget document warning that the figure would drop slightly next year, finance minister Giancarlo Giorgetti this month reversed the forecast, claiming spending would edge up to 1.57 percent of GDP next year, to 1.58 percent in 2026 and to 1.61 percent in 2027.

It is a steady increase that nevertheless leaves Italy nowhere close to the two percent target.

“It needs to be stated that despite the funding, the objective of two percent of GDP requested by NATO is very ambitious,” Giorgetti told parliament.

Back in 2014 only three NATO members were spending two percent of GDP on defense, while today 23 have achieved that and only eight – including Italy - fail to hit the target.

While campaigning in February, Donald Trump said, “One of the leaders of a large country asked ‘If we don’t pay up and we are attacked by Russia, will you protect us?’, and I replied, ‘You haven’t paid up, we’re not going to protect you. I would encourage (the Russians) to do whatever the hell they want to you.”

In 2018, Trump said the spending share of GDP for NATO members should be doubled to four percent and this month new NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said, “We will have to spend more ... It will be much more than the two percent. I’m clear about that.”

In defense of Italy’s spending record, one Rome-based analyst listed the number of procurement programs now underway.

“The army is buying over 1,000 new armored fighting vehicles , the navy is buying destroyers and the air force is buying 25 new F-35s and 24 new Eurofighters, as a well as Compass Call (electronic-attack) aircraft,” said Andrea Margelletti, the head of the Centre for InternationalStudies think tank in Rome.

“I am the first to criticize, but Italy is pushing spending. It is also supplying air defense batteries to Ukraine and buying more, it has ships protecting merchant vessels in the Red Sea and is part of a battle group at the edge of Europe. It all has a cost and I believe the U.S. can be content with what Italy is spending,” he said.

Margelletti also praised Italian defense minister Guido Crosetto for improving the “combat readiness” of Italian soldiers. “Crosetto has seen that conflict in Europe is a possibility,” he said.

A second analyst, who declined to be named, told Defense News it was more about how money was spent than how much.

Citing Poland, which has now driven defense spending to over four percent of GDP, he said, “Poland will now have four different types of tank, which is a logistical nightmare. It’s about spending better, not always more.”

If Italy can convince observers it is pulling its weight in the North Atlantic Alliance, some leaders here could nevertheless face criticism from the Trump administration for the strong support Rome has given Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Other European leaders, like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, have won favor with Trump supporters for favoring a deal with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine rather than continuing to arm Kyiv.

But Alessandro Marrone, who heads the defense program at Rome think tank IAI, said Rome’s support for arming Ukraine would not harm relations with the new U.S. government.

“All of the EU and NATO has supported Ukraine, it’s not a problem,” he said.

“Italy has a stable, conservative government and Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni has a good relationship with Rutte, EU commission head Ursula von der Leyen and Elon Musk. She also pulled out of Italy’s Belt and Road agreement with China,” he said.

“Orban is less useful as an interlocutor,” he added.

Tom Kington is the Italy correspondent for Defense News.

罗马——意大利的国防开支正以稳定的速度增长，但这对于唐纳德·特朗普来说可能还不够快。

距离特朗普重返白宫还有几周时间，罗马仍然是北约成员国中为数不多的尚未达到十年前设定的国防开支占GDP 2%目标的国家之一。

这可能会使意大利和其他国家再次成为下一任美国总统的重点打击对象，而这位总统似乎更热衷于削减他认为的美国在海外的慷慨解囊。

意大利国防部长圭多·克罗塞托本月在意大利参议院表示，意大利今年将在国防上花费 291.8 亿欧元（308.9 亿美元），比去年的 277.5 亿欧元大幅增长。

但他补充说，这仅占GDP的1.54%。

尽管今年的国防预算文件警告称，明年的国防预算将略有下降，但财政部长詹卡洛·乔尔杰蒂本月推翻了这一预测，声称明年国防开支将小幅上升至国内生产总值的 1.57%，2026 年将达到 1.58%，2027 年将达到 1.61%。

虽然增速稳步上升，但意大利距离2%的目标还相差甚远。

“需要指出的是，尽管有资金支持，但北约要求的占GDP 2%的目标非常雄心勃勃，”乔尔杰蒂在议会表示。

2014 年，只有三个北约成员国将国内生产总值的 2% 用于国防开支，而如今，已有 23 个北约成员国达到了这一目标，只有 8 个成员国（包括意大利）未能达到这一目标。

今年二月竞选期间，唐纳德·特朗普说：“一个大国的领导人问：‘如果我们不付钱，俄罗斯攻击我们，你们会保护我们吗？’我回答说：‘你们没付钱，我们就不会保护你们。我会鼓励（俄罗斯人）对你们为所欲为。’”

2018年，特朗普表示北约成员国的军费开支占GDP的比例应该翻一番，达到4%。本月，新任北约秘书长马克·吕特表示：“我们必须增加开支……远远超过2%。这一点我非常清楚。”

为了维护意大利的支出记录，一位罗马的分析师列举了目前正在进行的采购项目数量。

“陆军正在购买 1000 多辆新型装甲战车，海军正在购买驱逐舰，空军正在购买 25 架新型 F-35 战斗机和 24 架新型台风战斗机，以及“罗盘呼叫”（电子攻击）飞机，”罗马国际研究中心智库负责人安德烈亚·马尔盖莱蒂说道。

“我首先要提出批评，但意大利确实在加大投入。它不仅向乌克兰提供防空导弹系统，还在继续增购；它派舰艇在红海保护商船；它还是驻扎在欧洲边缘的战斗群的一部分。所有这些都需要成本，我相信美国对意大利的投入应该感到满意，”他说道。

马尔杰莱蒂还赞扬了意大利国防部长圭多·克罗塞托提高意大利士兵“战备状态”的努力。他说：“克罗塞托已经意识到欧洲发生冲突的可能性。”

另一位不愿透露姓名的分析师告诉《防务新闻》，关键在于钱是如何花的，而不是花了多少钱。

他以波兰为例，指出该国国防开支已超过GDP的4%，并表示：“波兰现在将拥有四种不同类型的坦克，这在后勤方面简直是一场噩梦。关键在于如何更有效地利用资金，而不是一味地增加投入。”

如果意大利能够让观察人士相信它在北大西洋联盟中发挥着应有的作用，那么意大利的一些领导人仍然可能因为罗马对乌克兰领导人弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的强力支持而面临特朗普政府的批评。

其他欧洲领导人，如匈牙利的维克托·欧尔班，因倾向于与俄罗斯达成协议结束乌克兰冲突，而不是继续向基辅提供武器，而赢得了特朗普支持者的好感。

但罗马智库 IAI 国防项目负责人亚历山德罗·马罗内表示，罗马支持武装乌克兰不会损害与美国新政府的关系。

他说：“欧盟和北约都支持乌克兰，这不是问题。”

他说：“意大利拥有一个稳定的保守派政府，意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼与英国首相吕特、欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩以及埃隆·马斯克关系良好。她还退出了意大利与中国的‘一带一路’倡议。”

“奥尔班作为对话者的作用不大，”他补充道。

汤姆·金顿是《防务新闻》驻意大利记者。