The GOP stampede away from Trump is growing — including in deep-red districts

Republicans choosing to distance themselves from Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections was somewhat inevitable, given how historically unpopular the president is .

But the examples are piling up, and it’s notably happening in some pretty red territory.

Many of those running away from the president and policies like the Iran war are campaigning in territory that favored Trump by substantial margins — including by double digits in some areas.

The Iran war defections over the past week have been particularly notable.

Three of the big ones have come from one relatively small state: Iowa. Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks joined in a vote to limit Trump’s war powers last week. And on Monday, their colleague Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is the GOP nominee for Senate, posted on X that “ the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end .”

Hinson’s defection came the same day that her fellow Midwestern Senate nominee, former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, released an ad similarly saying, “ The war with Iran needs to end — and end quickly .”

Their moves come as new CNN polling on Tuesday showed just 26% of US adults approve of Trump’s handling of the war — a number that has gradually gotten worse.

That two Senate candidates broke with Trump on one day said a lot. But so did the fact that one of the states involved was Iowa, which Trump carried by 13 points in 2024.

(Trump won Nunn’s district by 5 points in 2024, and Miller-Meeks’ by 9.)

There has been a sense that the state’s Senate race might be in play because Trump’s tariffs have hit Iowa particularly hard, and because Democrats recruited well with state Sen. Josh Turek.

And sure enough, the day after Hinson broke with Trump over Iran, a Marist College poll showed Turek leading by 8 points among registered voters — perhaps the most eyebrow-raising Senate poll to date, and one that suggests she has reason to be concerned.

But it’s not just Hinson who has felt compelled to distance herself somewhat from Trump despite running in an electorate that he won by double digits.

The Miami Herald reported Tuesday that Florida GOP gubernatorial nominee Rep. Byron Donalds, a loyal Trump ally, had scrubbed numerous prominent references to the president from his updated campaign website. Donalds also recently expressed “concerns” about Trump’s proposal to give every adult US citizen $5,000 if Republicans keep the House and Senate in November.

Donalds is running in a state Trump carried by 13 points.

And he’s not the only one who has made such changes to his website — despite running in deep-red territory. So too have California Rep. Young Kim (Trump +12), congressional candidates in Florida (Trump +11) and in Kentucky (Trump +15), and even Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr , who is running for Senate in a state Trump won by a whopping 32 points.

Another notable development on this front over the past week: A couple of GOP incumbents in heavily Hispanic — and double-digit Trump — congressional districts distancing themselves from the president’s hardline immigration policies.

In Florida, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar told Trump in a direct-to-camera ad that some Hispanic voters “feel betrayed” by his immigration enforcement activities, saying they go “too far” by targeting those who hadn’t committed non-immigration crimes.

Asked about her ad last week, Trump said he did “disagree with her” but indicated he still backs her. Salazar said Sunday that she spoke with Trump, who was “very receptive” to her warning.

And in Texas, Rep. Monica De La Cruz touted her work to free a Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipient who was being detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The ad twice cited a “broken” immigration system .

Trump won Salazar’s district by 15 points and De La Cruz’s by 18 in 2024, when he did remarkably well among Hispanic voters for a Republican. But recent polls suggest that demographic has swung significantly back toward Democrats.

Many of these moves are relatively subtle, rather than full breaks from Trump.

Saying the Iran war needs to end isn’t the same as saying it was a mistake. The website changes are rather quiet — at least until reporters notice. And even in her immigration ad, Salazar speaks to Trump is if he’s just getting bad advice rather than delivering on the mass deportations that he repeatedly promised during the 2024 campaign.

But the fact that they feel the need to distance themselves in these ways — even in territory Trump won pretty easily in 2024 — speaks volumes about how they feel public opinion has shifted.

And they likely won’t be the last ones to do it. If anything, they might have just opened the floodgates for others who didn’t want to cross Trump but now might feel compelled to do so.

鉴于特朗普总统在历史上极不受欢迎，共和党人在中期选举前选择与他保持距离在某种程度上是不可避免的。

但这样的例子越来越多，而且值得注意的是，这种情况发生在一些相当保守的地区。

许多反对总统及其政策（如伊朗战争）的人，都在特朗普曾大幅领先（在某些地区甚至领先两位数）的地区进行竞选活动。

过去一周，伊朗战争期间的叛逃事件尤为引人注目。

其中三项重大举措都来自一个相对较小的州：爱荷华州。上周，众议员扎克·纳恩和玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯参与投票限制特朗普的战争权力。周一，他们的同事、共和党参议员候选人阿什利·欣森在X网站上发帖称，“这场战争必须迅速而成功地结束。”

欣森宣布倒戈的同一天，她的中西部参议院候选人、前密歇根州众议员迈克·罗杰斯也发布了一则类似的广告，称“与伊朗的战争需要结束——而且要尽快结束”。

他们的举动正值美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）周二公布的最新民调显示，只有 26% 的美国成年人认可特朗普对战争的处理方式——而且这一数字还在逐渐恶化。

两位参议院候选人在同一天与特朗普决裂，这本身就说明了很多问题。但更值得注意的是，其中一州是爱荷华州，而特朗普在2024年大选中在该州以13个百分点的优势获胜。

（2024年，特朗普在努恩所在的选区以5个百分点的优势获胜，在米勒-米克斯所在的选区以9个百分点的优势获胜。）

人们普遍认为，由于特朗普的关税政策对爱荷华州造成了特别严重的打击，而且民主党人成功招募了州参议员乔什·图雷克，因此该州的参议员竞选可能会出现变数。

果不其然，在欣森因伊朗问题与特朗普决裂的第二天，马里斯特学院的一项民意调查显示，图雷克在注册选民中领先 8 个百分点——这可能是迄今为止最令人惊讶的参议院民意调查，也表明她有理由感到担忧。

但并非只有欣森一人感到有必要与特朗普保持一定距离，尽管她参选的选区特朗普以两位数的优势获胜。

《迈阿密先驱报》周二报道称，佛罗里达州共和党州长候选人、众议员拜伦·唐纳兹（Byron Donalds）是特朗普的忠实盟友，他已从更新后的竞选网站上删除了大量提及总统的内容。唐纳兹最近还对特朗普提出的“如果共和党在11月的大选中保住众议院和参议院的控制权，就向每位成年美国公民发放5000美元”的提议表示“担忧”。

唐纳德斯正在竞选的州，特朗普曾以13个百分点的优势获胜。

而且，他并非唯一一个对自己的网站进行此类修改的候选人——尽管他所在的选区都是共和党的传统票仓。加州众议员杨金（特朗普领先12个百分点）、佛罗里达州（特朗普领先11个百分点）和肯塔基州（特朗普领先15个百分点）的国会候选人，甚至包括肯塔基州众议员安迪·巴尔，他正在竞选参议员，而特朗普在该州以惊人的32个百分点的优势获胜。

过去一周，这方面还有另一个值得注意的进展：几位在西班牙裔人口众多、特朗普支持率高达两位数的国会选区担任共和党议员的现任议员，开始与总统强硬的移民政策保持距离。

在佛罗里达州，众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉萨尔在一段直接面向镜头的广告中告诉特朗普，一些西班牙裔选民对他的移民执法活动感到“被背叛”，称这些活动“做得太过分了”，因为它们针对的是那些没有犯下非移民罪行的人。

上周被问及她的广告时，特朗普表示他“不同意她的观点”，但暗示他仍然支持她。萨拉扎尔周日表示，她与特朗普谈过，特朗普对她的警告“非常重视”。

在德克萨斯州，众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹大力宣传她为一名被美国移民和海关执法局拘留的“童年入境暂缓遣返计划”（DACA）受益人争取自由所做的工作。该广告两次提及“支离破碎”的移民系统。

2024年，特朗普在萨拉查所在的选区以15个百分点的优势获胜，在德拉克鲁兹所在的选区以18个百分点的优势获胜，当时他在共和党候选人中，在拉美裔选民中表现出色。但最近的民调显示，这一群体的选民倾向已显著转向民主党。

这些举措大多比较微妙，而不是与特朗普彻底决裂。

说伊朗战争需要结束，并不等同于说这场战争是个错误。网站的改动相当悄无声息——至少在记者注意到之前是这样。甚至在她的移民竞选广告中，萨拉扎尔也质疑特朗普是否只是听信了错误的建议，而不是兑现他在2024年竞选期间反复承诺的大规模驱逐出境。

但即便是在特朗普 2024 年轻松获胜的地区，他们仍然觉得有必要以这种方式与特朗普保持距离，这充分说明了他们认为公众舆论已经发生了怎样的转变。

他们很可能不会是最后这么做的人。如果说有什么影响的话，那就是他们可能打开了潘多拉魔盒，让那些原本不想得罪特朗普但现在可能不得不这么做的人也纷纷效仿。