Melaka election ahead: Key players, shifting alliances and the possible implications for Putrajaya

As Melaka prepares for upcoming elections, shifting political alliances and recent history are shaping its landscape.

Traditionally a Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold, the state slipped to Pakatan Harapan (PH) in 2018 but returned to BN with a two-thirds majority in 2021.

Currently, BN faces the challenge of maintaining its dominance, especially as it seeks alliances to secure a supermajority.

Analysts suggest BN may require an alliance with Perikatan Nasional (PN) to maintain its standing, as PH grapples with the need to regain voter trust amid changing political dynamics.

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 23 — The last time Melaka went to the polls, voters masked up, kept their distance in queues at polling stations and regularly sanitised their hands.

Five years on, the Covid-19 restrictions are gone, but shifting political tides and fluid alliances are set to shape another closely watched state election.

Melaka, traditionally a Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold, fell to Pakatan Harapan (PH) for the first time in 2018 before BN wrested the state back with a two-thirds majority in the 2021 state election.

BN won 21 seats in the 28-seat state assembly in 2021, while PH secured five and Perikatan Nasional (PN) two.

The assembly’s composition subsequently changed after Rembia assemblyman Datuk Muhammad Jailani Khamis left BN for PAS, reducing BN’s representation to 20 seats. Bemban assemblyman Dr Mohd Yadzil Yaakub was also expelled from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and became an Independent while remaining in the Opposition bloc.

Following the formation of the unity government at the federal level in 2022, the five PH assemblymen — four from DAP and one from Amanah — joined the BN-led Melaka administration in 2023.

Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh announced yesterday that the state assembly would be dissolved today after receiving the consent of Melaka Governor Tun Mohd Ali Rustam, paving the way for the state’s 16th election. The assembly’s term had been due to expire on December 27.

Key players and the big battles

The election will be a significant test of Ab Rauf’s leadership. A first-term assemblyman, he became chief minister in March 2023 after his predecessor Datuk Seri Sulaiman Md Ali stepped down.

Ab Rauf is widely expected to defend his Tanjung Bidara seat for a second term.

Another high-profile contender is Umno Youth chief and Merlimau assemblyman Datuk Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh.

Akmal, an outspoken critic of DAP, tendered his resignation from the state executive council in January amid tensions over Umno’s cooperation with DAP and the unity government, but Ab Rauf rejected his resignation in April.

On PH’s side, the state’s sole Amanah representative, Adly Zahari, would be among the coalition’s most senior figures contesting the Melaka polls if he defends his Bukit Katil seat.

Adly, a former Melaka chief minister and currently the deputy defence minister, initially remained seated with the government bloc after his four DAP colleagues moved to the Opposition benches in July.

Melaka PH subsequently confirmed that all five of its assemblymen would withdraw from the state administration after the coalition opposed amendments to the state constitution allowing the appointment of nominated assemblymen.

The amendment allows for the appointment of up to seven nominated assemblymen, a measure opposed by all five PH representatives.

Two-thirds unlikely without allies

Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia principal adviser Oh Ei Sun expects BN to retain Melaka by a simple majority but said it would require an alliance with PN to reach a two-thirds majority.

BN enters the election after returning to power in Negeri Sembilan through an electoral understanding with PN.

The results reflected BN’s willingness to tailor its electoral strategy to different political terrains.

In Johor, BN contested all 56 state seats without an electoral alliance and went on to form the state government on its own.

In Negeri Sembilan, however, BN and PN reached an electoral understanding aimed at avoiding contests against one another despite BN remaining part of the PH-led federal government.

Whether a similar arrangement will be replicated in Melaka remains unsettled.

BN has indicated that negotiations with potential partners would take place following the dissolution of the state assembly, while Melaka PH has also been in discussions with Bersatu over a possible “PH Plus” arrangement.

Political analyst Datuk Sivamurugan Pandian from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) said a BN-PN arrangement could consolidate the Malay vote in Melaka, making it more difficult for PH to make significant gains.

PH has suffered consecutive setbacks in recent state elections, and Sivamurugan said rebuilding confidence among Malay voters and giving greater prominence to local issues would be crucial if the coalition hoped to reverse its fortunes.

“PH has to acknowledge that Johor and Negeri Sembilan were not isolated defeats but are signals of changing voter behaviour,” Sivamurugan said.

Both Sivamurugan and Oh, however, said even a commanding BN victory in Melaka would be unlikely to trigger an early general election.

“The general election is at most about a year away, not two or three years away.

“So, it [forcing a snap election] wouldn’t make much difference,” Oh said, adding that BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s relationship with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim would also make it less likely that the federal government would be brought down before the end of its term.

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随着马六甲为即将到来的选举做准备，不断变化的政治联盟和近期的历史正在塑造其政治格局。

该州传统上是国民阵线（国阵）的堡垒，2018 年倒向希望联盟（希盟），但在 2021 年以三分之二的多数席位重新回到国阵手中。

目前，国阵面临着维持其主导地位的挑战，尤其是在它寻求结盟以获得绝对多数席位的情况下。

分析人士认为，随着政治格局的变化，希望联盟（PH）正努力重新赢得选民的信任，因此国阵（BN）可能需要与国民联盟（PN）结盟才能维持其地位。

吉隆坡，9月23日讯——马六甲上次举行选举时，选民们都戴着口罩，在投票站排队时保持社交距离，并定期对手部进行消毒。

五年过去了，新冠疫情限制措施已经解除，但不断变化的政治潮流和联盟关系必将影响另一场备受关注的州选举。

马六甲州传统上是国民阵线（国阵）的堡垒，但在 2018 年首次落入希望联盟（希盟）之手，之后国阵在 2021 年州选举中以三分之二的多数席位重新夺回了该州。

2021 年，国阵在 28 个州议会席位中赢得 21 个席位，希望联盟 (PH) 获得 5 个席位，国民联盟 (PN) 获得 2 个席位。

在伦比亚州议员拿督穆罕默德·贾拉尼·哈米斯离开国阵加入伊党后，议会的组成发生了变化，将国阵的席位减少至 20 个席位。 Bemban 议员 Mohd Yadzil Yaakub 博士也被马来西亚土著团结党开除，并成为独立人士，但仍留在反对党集团。

2022 年联邦层面组建联合政府后，希望联盟的五名州议员——四名来自民主行动党，一名来自诚信党——于 2023 年加入由国阵领导的马六甲州政府。

马六甲州首席部长拿督斯里阿布·拉乌夫·尤索夫昨日宣布，在获得马六甲州元首敦·莫哈末·阿里·鲁斯塔姆的同意后，州议会将于今日解散，为该州第16届选举铺平道路。州议会的任期原定于12月27日届满。

关键人物和重大战役

此次选举将是对阿布·拉乌夫领导能力的一次重大考验。作为一名首次当选的州议员，他在2023年3月接替卸任的首席部长拿督斯里·苏莱曼·莫哈末·阿里出任首席部长。

外界普遍预期阿布·拉乌夫将连任丹戎比达拉选区议员。

另一位备受瞩目的竞争者是巫统青年团主席兼万里茂议员拿督莫哈末阿克末萨利赫博士。

阿克马尔是民主行动党的直言不讳的批评者，由于巫统与民主行动党和团结政府的合作问题导致紧张局势，他于1月份辞去了州行政议员的职务，但阿布·拉乌夫在4月份拒绝了他的辞呈。

在希望联盟方面，如果阿德利·扎哈里（Adly Zahari）保住他在武吉卡迪尔（Bukit Katil）的席位，那么这位该州唯一的诚信党（Amanah）代表将是该联盟参加马六甲州选举的最资深人物之一。

阿德利曾任马六甲首席部长，现任国防部副部长。7 月，他的四位民主行动党同事转入反对党阵营后，他最初仍留在政府阵营。

马六甲希望联盟随后证实，在反对修改州宪法允许任命委任州议员后，该联盟的五名州议员将全部退出州政府。

该修正案允许任命最多七名提名议员，但所有五名希望联盟代表都反对这项措施。

没有盟友，三分之二的可能性不大

马来西亚太平洋研究中心首席顾问吴逸山预计国阵将以简单多数保住马六甲州，但他表示，国阵需要与国民联盟结盟才能获得三分之二的多数席位。

国阵在与国民联盟达成选举协议后，重返森美兰州执政，随后参加选举。

结果反映出国阵愿意根据不同的政治形势调整其选举策略。

在柔佛州，国阵在没有选举联盟的情况下竞选全部 56 个州议席，并最终单独组建了州政府。

然而，在森美兰州，尽管国阵仍然是希望联盟领导的联邦政府的一部分，但国阵和国民联盟达成了一项旨在避免彼此竞争的选举谅解。

马六甲是否会效仿这种安排，目前尚无定论。

国阵表示，将在州议会解散后与潜在合作伙伴进行谈判，而马六甲希望联盟也一直在与土著团结党讨论可能的“希望联盟+”安排。

马来西亚理科大学（USM）政治分析家拿督西瓦穆鲁根·潘迪安表示，国阵与国盟的合作可能会巩固马六甲的马来选民，使希望联盟更难取得重大进展。

希望联盟在最近的州选举中屡遭挫败，西瓦穆鲁根表示，如果该联盟希望扭转颓势，重建马来选民的信心并更加重视地方问题至关重要。

“希望联盟必须承认，柔佛州和森美兰州的失败并非孤立的失败，而是选民行为发生变化的信号，”西瓦穆鲁根说。

然而，Sivamurugan 和 Oh 都表示，即使国阵在马六甲取得压倒性胜利，也不太可能引发提前举行大选。

“大选最多还有一年左右的时间，而不是两三年。”

“所以，（强行举行提前选举）不会有太大区别，”吴先生说，并补充说，国阵主席拿督斯里阿末扎希与首相拿督斯里安华·易卜拉欣的关系也会降低联邦政府在其任期结束前垮台的可能性。

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