Trump wants to restrict mail voting — but it’s getting more popular

Mail-in voting in the 2026 midterm elections officially begins Friday in North Carolina, even as the rules governing those votes remain uncertain amid an ongoing legal fight.

A federal judge has, for now, temporarily blocked the US Postal Service from enforcing new mail-in voting requirements stemming from a sweeping executive order signed by President Donald Trump in March. The pause came days after the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration could begin implementing parts of the order.

Beyond the legal uncertainty, the effort is facing internal concerns at USPS. A whistleblower report alleges that USPS officials have flagged significant IT concerns about a new system for verifying mail ballots.

Voting by mail has grown significantly and has become a popular and well-established part of US elections over the past two decades. States set their own rules for who can vote by mail, creating a patchwork of policies that has shifted considerably over the past two decades.

In 2000, 21 states allowed any voter to cast a ballot by mail. Today, 37 states and the District of Columbia do, while another 13 states offer mail voting with some restrictions, according to the Center for Election Innovation & Research.

Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

Election officials say they can’t comply with Trump’s proposed mail ballot rules

As access to mail voting has expanded, so has the annual number of ballots cast. Mail voting surged during the pandemic-era 2020 election, and millions of Americans have continued to cast their ballots by mail in federal elections.

Changing how mail ballots are handled could have implications for tens of millions of voters and for election officials preparing to administer voting.

Voters who said they used mail-in ballots in 2024 tended to be older and more likely to live in urban or suburban settings compared to the overall voting population, according to a 2024 post-election survey by Pew Research Center.

In some states like Mississippi, voters can qualify for a mail-in ballot based on being aged 65 or over.

Political preferences differ between people who vote by mail and people who vote in person, the same Pew survey suggests.

In 2024, 61% of voters who reported voting by mail-in ballot said they supported Kamala Harris for president, a higher share than those who voted in person, both early or on Election Day. The Harris support among mail-in voters was higher than her share of the popular vote.

Trump’s March order aiming to rein in mail-in voting follows years of him making unsubstantiated claims about illegal voting by mail. With such little time before the fall elections, the legal challenges could prevent some or all of Trump’s intended changes from taking effect this November.

“There’s no way to implement (the executive order),” David Becker, a former Justice Department lawyer who now leads the nonprofit Center for Election Innovation & Research, told CNN . “This would be a sweeping seizure of election power from the states under any circumstances. It would be hard to do this with two or four years of advance notice. It is impossible to do that with about 70 days.”

2026 年中期选举的邮寄投票将于周五在北卡罗来纳州正式开始，尽管由于持续的法律斗争，这些投票的规则仍然不确定。

目前，一位联邦法官已暂时阻止美国邮政局执行特朗普总统3月份签署的一项影响深远的行政命令所规定的新的邮寄投票要求。此前几天，最高法院裁定特朗普政府可以开始实施该行政命令的部分内容。

除了法律上的不确定性之外，这项工作还面临着美国邮政总局内部的担忧。一份举报人报告称，邮政总局官员对一套用于核实邮寄选票的新系统提出了严重的IT隐患。

在过去的二十年里，邮寄投票发展迅猛，已成为美国选举中一种广受欢迎且行之有效的方式。各州自行制定邮寄投票的规则，形成了政策上的多样性，而这些政策在过去二十年中也发生了显著变化。

2000年，美国有21个州允许选民通过邮寄方式投票。如今，根据选举创新与研究中心的数据，已有37个州和哥伦比亚特区允许邮寄投票，另有13个州在一些限制条件下提供邮寄投票。

Patrick T. Fallon/法新社/盖蒂图片社

选举官员表示，他们无法遵守特朗普提出的邮寄选票规则。

随着邮寄投票渠道的扩大，每年的投票数量也随之增加。在2020年疫情期间的选举中，邮寄投票数量激增，数百万美国人在联邦选举中继续通过邮寄方式投票。

改变邮寄选票的处理方式可能会对数千万选民以及准备组织投票的选举官员产生影响。

根据皮尤研究中心 2024 年选举后的一项调查，在 2024 年使用邮寄选票的选民往往年龄较大，并且与总体投票人口相比，他们更有可能居住在城市或郊区。

在密西西比州等一些州，选民只要年满 65 岁或以上，就有资格获得邮寄选票。

皮尤研究中心的同一项调查显示，邮寄投票者和亲自投票者的政治偏好有所不同。

2024年，在通过邮寄选票投票的选民中，有61%的人表示支持卡马拉·哈里斯竞选总统，这一比例高于提前投票或选举日当天亲自投票的选民。哈里斯在邮寄选票选民中的支持率高于她在普选中的得票率。

特朗普三月份颁布的旨在限制邮寄投票的行政命令，延续了他多年来对邮寄投票非法性的毫无根据的指控。距离秋季大选时间紧迫，这些法律挑战可能会阻止特朗普部分或全部计划中的改革措施在今年11月生效。

“这项行政命令根本无法执行，”前司法部律师、现任非营利组织选举创新与研究中心负责人大卫·贝克尔告诉CNN，“无论在任何情况下，这都将是对各州选举权的全面剥夺。提前两到四年通知都很难做到，而只有大约70天的时间更是不可能。”