Trump’s Greenland deal brings small changes, experts say, after months of turmoil

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The Greenland deal signed by President Donald Trump on Tuesday after months of threats appears to make small changes to a 1951 treaty that frames the US military’s footprint on the self-governing territory, according to experts, keeping non-NATO countries out and permitting a small uptick in US forces.

Trump had threatened to forcibly take Greenland if he did not find a deal to his liking, with European nations sending troops to the territory as tensions simmered.

The agreement between the US, Denmark, and Greenland serves as a supplement to the 70-year-old defense treaty that gave the US permission to station troops in Greenland as part of NATO’s defense. Among the primary additions are a prohibition of non-NATO members basing forces in Greenland, the building of two US bases, and an assurance of US military access if Greenland becomes independent from Denmark, experts said.

“I don’t think the military presence is going to be all that large, but it does increase our very modest presence in Greenland and is part of a much broader tableau of activities in the Arctic and expanding activities by everybody, including us, including the Canadians,” Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense and Security Department said.

The US military has had a small footprint at the Pituffik Space Base in Greenland for decades. And while President Trump said Friday that the US would “immediately begin” building out a “large military presence” in Greenland, Cancian said the final number of forces could be modest, pegging the total addition at under 50 troops.

The deal’s restrictions on non-NATO countries’ influence over Greenland, one of the key changes to the prior treaty, is “clearly aimed” at China and Russia, Cancian added.

Trump has framed the agreement as providing “permanent control over security ” of the territory after previously saying that the US needed control over the country in order to maintain its own security. The agreement references Trump’s planned “Golden Dome” missile defense system, though that program remains years away from being built .

The US and other countries have turned increasing attention to the Arctic as icepacks have thinned, creating now navigable waterways that could shape global trade.

“You could argue that this Greenland issue has caused a lot of damage to Arctic security just because of the challenging political environment,” Iris Ferguson, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Arctic and global resilience under the Biden administration, told CNN. “But I think that this agreement really pushes in the right direction towards advancing common goals.”

The new agreement includes an assurance of US’ access if Greenland becomes independent of Denmark — an issue that “had long festered” with the old agreement, Ferguson explained.

Ferguson also added that there would need to be significant infrastructure investment done at the two locations where the US will establish bases — Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig — to not only house people but appropriately protect equipment in the harsh environment.

“I think all a lot of this stuff would have been agreed to pretty wholeheartedly without some of the rhetoric,” Ferguson said. “But that being said, I think that this is as good of an agreement as you could have hoped for, given the circumstances.”

Mark Rutte, secretary general of NATO, said in a social media post that it is “[g]reat to see the deal signed.”

“We know the threats we face, and greater security in the Arctic and North Atlantic is essential for Europe and North America alike,” Rutte said. “This agreement, along with NATO’s growing role in securing this vital region, enhances our collective security and supports a safer and more stable future for us all.”

Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, who is the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, issued a statement after the deal was signed criticizing Trump’s threats ahead of the agreement.

“After months of threatening our NATO Ally Denmark and disregarding the will of the Greenlandic people, President Trump has reached a ‘deal’ that essentially returns the US-Greenland defense relationship to where it was before,” she said.

托马斯·特拉斯达尔/Ritzau Scanpix/法新社/盖蒂图片社

经过数月的威胁，唐纳德·特朗普总统周二签署了格陵兰协议。据专家称，该协议似乎对 1951 年的条约做出了一些小的修改，该条约规定了美国军队在这一自治领土上的存在，将非北约国家排除在外，并允许美国军队小幅增加。

特朗普曾威胁说，如果得不到他满意的协议，他将武力夺取格陵兰岛，欧洲各国也向该地区派兵，紧张局势持续升温。

美国、丹麦和格陵兰三国签署的这项协议是对已有70年历史的北约防御条约的补充。该条约允许美国在格陵兰驻军，作为北约防御的一部分。专家表示，新增的主要内容包括禁止非北约成员国在格陵兰驻军、建设两个美军基地，以及保证如果格陵兰脱离丹麦独立，美国仍可进入该地区进行军事活动。

“我认为军事存在不会很大，但这确实增加了我们在格陵兰岛非常有限的存在，并且是北极地区更广泛活动的一部分，也是包括我们和加拿大在内的各方扩大活动的一部分，”战略与国际研究中心国防与安全部高级顾问马克·坎西安说。

几十年来，美军在格陵兰岛的皮图菲克太空基地一直保持着少量驻军。尽管特朗普总统周五表示，美国将“立即开始”在格陵兰岛建立“大规模军事存在”，但坎西安表示，最终的驻军人数可能不多，预计新增兵力将不足50人。

坎西安补充说，该协议对非北约国家在格陵兰岛的影响力进行限制，这是对先前条约的关键修改之一，其“显然是针对”中国和俄罗斯的。

特朗普此前曾表示，美国需要控制该国以维护自身安全，而如今他将该协议描述为对该地区“永久安全控制”。该协议提到了特朗普计划中的“金穹顶”导弹防御系统，尽管该项目距离建成仍需数年时间。

随着冰盖变薄，美国和其他国家越来越关注北极，形成了可通航的水道，这可能会影响全球贸易。

“你可以说，格陵兰岛问题由于复杂的政治环境，已经对北极安全造成了很大损害，”拜登政府时期负责北极和全球韧性的国防部前副助理部长艾里斯·弗格森告诉CNN。“但我认为，这项协议确实朝着推进共同目标的方向迈出了正确的一步。”

弗格森解释说，新协议包括一项保证，即如果格陵兰岛脱离丹麦独立，美国仍可进入格陵兰岛——这个问题在旧协议中“长期存在”。

弗格森还补充说，美国将在纳尔萨克和梅斯特斯维格这两个地点建立基地，需要进行大量的基建投资，不仅要安置人员，还要在恶劣的环境中适当保护设备。

“我认为，如果没有那些言辞上的争论，很多事情本来都能得到双方的一致同意，”弗格森说。“但即便如此，考虑到目前的情况，我认为这已经是你能期望的最好的协议了。”

北约秘书长马克·吕特在社交媒体上发帖称，“很高兴看到这项协议签署”。

“我们深知自身面临的威胁，加强北极和北大西洋地区的安全对欧洲和北美都至关重要，”吕特表示。“这项协议，以及北约在维护这一重要地区安全方面日益重要的作用，将提升我们的集体安全，并为我们所有人创造一个更安全、更稳定的未来。”

新罕布什尔州民主党参议员珍妮·沙欣是参议院外交关系委员会的资深成员，她在协议签署后发表声明，批评特朗普在协议达成前发出的威胁。

“在威胁我们的北约盟友丹麦数月，并无视格陵兰人民的意愿之后，特朗普总统达成了一项‘协议’，该协议实际上使美格防关系恢复到了以前的状态，”她说。