ADB raises Malaysia’s 2026, 2027 growth forecasts to 4.9pc, 4.7pc

The Asian Development Bank has increased Malaysia's 2026 and 2027 economic growth forecasts to 4.9% and 4.7%, supported by the semiconductor upcycle and data centre investments.

Malaysia's growth is expected to moderate due to supply chain disruptions from the West Asia conflict and El Nino-related local output issues.

Inflation in Malaysia is projected to remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2027, with construction and investment bolstered by a data centre boom and public infrastructure projects.

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 23 — The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its 2026 and 2027 economic growth forecasts for Malaysia to 4.9 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively.

This is supported by the semiconductor upcycle, while data centre investments reinforce consumption and construction. The latest forecasts are higher than the 4.6 per cent forecast for 2026 and 4.5 per cent for 2027 in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2026 report.

In its September 2026 report, ADB said Malaysia’s growth is expected to moderate slightly in the second half of 2026 (2H 2026) and in 2027.

“The West Asia conflict disrupted supply chains and elevated international prices, which can impact domestic costs, thus constraining household consumption and business activity. The uncertain external environment will continue to weigh on growth. Growth in 2027 will likely slow further from El Nino‑related disruptions to local output and continued pressures on food and energy costs,” it said.

Malaysia’s inflation will likely remain at 2.0 per cent through the rest of 2026 and for 2027, according to ADO.

Domestic spending will likely remain resilient, but heightened downside pressures may limit labour and consumption growth, it said. Labour market prospects should be bolstered by tourism in 2H 2026, alongside Visit Malaysia 2026 initiatives and the upcoming Formula One event in Sepang.

“Continuing fuel subsidies and cash transfers to low-income households will support household spending. However, persistently high prices could limit household spending and restrain consumption growth,” it added.

In addition, construction and investment should remain robust, supported by a second data center boom expected in 2H 2026 as hyperscalers begin megacampus developments in Springhill, Serendah, and Johor.

The sector will be further supported by major public infrastructure projects such as the Penang light rail transit and Kerian water project in Perak rollout in the coming months.

The report said manufacturing and external trade will likely be bolstered by further developments and use of artificial intelligence (AI), and growth will likely remain strong, with global semiconductor sales projected to climb to US$1.5 trillion (RM6.1 trillion) in 2026, up from US$795.6 billion in 2025. — Bernama

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亚洲开发银行将马来西亚 2026 年和 2027 年的经济增长预测分别上调至 4.9% 和 4.7%，这主要得益于半导体行业的复苏和数据中心的投资。

由于西亚冲突导致供应链中断以及厄尔尼诺现象引发的本地产量问题，预计马来西亚的经济增长将放缓。

预计马来西亚2026年和2027年的通货膨胀率将保持在2.0%，数据中心热潮和公共基础设施项目将提振建筑业和投资。

吉隆坡，9月23日讯——亚洲开发银行（亚行）将马来西亚2026年和2027年的经济增长预期分别上调至4.9%和4.7%。

半导体行业的周期性增长支撑了这一趋势，而数据中心投资则进一步提振了消费和建设。最新预测值高于《亚洲发展展望》（ADO）2026年7月报告中对2026年4.6%和2027年4.5%的预测值。

亚洲开发银行在 2026 年 9 月的报告中表示，预计马来西亚的经济增长将在 2026 年下半年和 2027 年略有放缓。

报告指出：“西亚冲突扰乱了供应链，推高了国际物价，这可能会影响国内成本，从而抑制家庭消费和商业活动。不确定的外部环境将继续对经济增长构成压力。受厄尔尼诺现象对本地生产的影响以及食品和能源成本持续上涨的影响，2027年经济增长可能会进一步放缓。”

根据ADO的预测，马来西亚的通货膨胀率在2026年剩余时间和2027年可能会保持在2.0%。

报告指出，国内消费支出可能保持韧性，但下行压力加剧可能会限制劳动力市场和消费增长。2026年下半年，旅游业的复苏、马来西亚旅游年计划以及即将在雪邦举行的F1赛事，都将有助于提振劳动力市场前景。

报告还指出：“继续向低收入家庭提供燃油补贴和现金转移支付将有助于支持家庭支出。然而，持续高企的物价可能会限制家庭支出，抑制消费增长。”

此外，随着超大规模数据中心运营商开始在 Springhill、Serendah 和 Johor 开发巨型园区，预计 2026 年下半年将出现第二波数据中心热潮，建筑和投资应该会保持强劲势头。

未来几个月，槟城轻轨和霹雳州吉辇水务项目等重大公共基础设施项目将进一步支持该行业的发展。

报告指出，人工智能（AI）的进一步发展和应用有望提振制造业和对外贸易，增长势头或将保持强劲，全球半导体销售额预计将从2025年的7956亿美元攀升至2026年的1.5万亿美元（约合6.1万亿令吉）。——马来西亚国家通讯社（Bernama）

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