Super-sized El Niño could cause more than 450,000 heat deaths by February, study suggests

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Nearly half a million people across the world could lose their lives by February due to El Niño-driven extreme heat, according to a sobering new report.

El Niño, a natural climate pattern which typically ramps up global temperature, has now crossed into super-sized territory and is on its way to becoming record-breakingly strong.

Combined with the global warming the planet is already experiencing from fossil fuel pollution, the heat consequences could be devastating, according to the analysis from the Climate Impact Lab, a team of scientists, economists and data engineers headquartered at the University of Chicago, and published Wednesday.

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Heat is the most deadly form of extreme weather — although heat deaths are not well-tracked, even in rich nations. The report estimates the heat from El Niño could take 451,000 lives between June 2026, when it arrived, and February 2027. Those deaths would be in addition to the usual number of heat-related deaths.

The researchers believe this number is likely to rise — El Nino is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere spring, meaning its heat impacts will linger into the summer months.

The deaths from extreme heat would also come in addition to those expected from other El Niño-fueled extreme weather, including fires, floods and droughts, according to the report.

The report has not yet been peer-reviewed but uses peer-reviewed methodology to reach its conclusions.

“We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome — death,” said Michael Greenstone, a report author, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and an economics professor at the University of Chicago.

“This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives,” he added.

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Newsom declares state of emergency for California ahead of super El Niño storm season

Scientists project that El Niño will push global land temperatures up 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 Fahrenheit) above normal in the coming months. This unusual warmth is exactly what climate change is projected to bring in 20 years time, and will lead to 44% more days of extreme heat than would be expected in a normal year, according to the study.

The current El Niño is a “postcard from our future” that’s arriving before the world’s had time to adapt, the authors write.

The regions expected to be most affected are overwhelmingly in the Global South. The report identifies Nigeria as where the most El Niño heat deaths are expected, with a projected 31,400 lives lost. Other countries at high risk include Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil. The United States is also in the top 20 affected countries, with a projected 3,500 deaths.

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The report combined peer-reviewed methods on the relationship between temperature in more than 24,000 regions across the world and mortality and seasonal temperature forecasts. The death projections were compared to the same months of an average year between 1996 and 2025.

The study is currently awaiting peer-review, but the scientists said they released the shorter report first due to El Nino’s rapid strengthening. “Given that there is still time now for policymakers and others to take action to prevent these deaths, we felt our findings couldn’t wait for the peer review process to play out. That would certainly be too late to act for this El Niño cycle,” said a Climate Impact Lab spokesperson.

Measures countries can take include early heat warnings, health action plans, ensuring cooling and hydration centers are available and expanding healthcare coverage, the report says.

“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year,” said report co-author Tamma Carleton, faculty head of research for the Climate Impact Lab and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency.”

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一份令人警醒的新报告显示，到2月份，全球近50万人可能因厄尔尼诺现象引发的极端高温而丧生。

厄尔尼诺现象是一种自然气候模式，通常会使全球气温升高，现在它已经进入了超强状态，并且正在朝着破纪录的强度发展。

芝加哥大学气候影响实验室（一个由科学家、经济学家和数据工程师组成的团队）周三发表的分析报告指出，再加上地球已经因化石燃料污染而经历的全球变暖，高温的后果可能是毁灭性的。

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高温是极端天气中最致命的一种——尽管即使在富裕国家，高温致死人数也缺乏有效统计。报告估计，厄尔尼诺现象带来的高温可能导致45.1万人在2026年6月（厄尔尼诺现象到来之时）至2027年2月期间丧生。这些死亡人数还不包括通常因高温导致的死亡人数。

研究人员认为这个数字可能会上升——厄尔尼诺现象预计将持续到北半球春季，这意味着其热影响将持续到夏季。

报告称，极端高温造成的死亡人数还将超过厄尔尼诺现象引发的其他极端天气（包括火灾、洪水和干旱）造成的死亡人数。

该报告尚未经过同行评审，但采用了同行评审的方法得出结论。

“我们长期以来一直能够预测气温对农作物的影响，现在我们还可以预测气温对最坏结果——死亡——的影响，”报告作者、气候影响实验室联合创始人、芝加哥大学经济学教授迈克尔·格林斯通说。

“这个数字如此庞大，令人麻木，但它是由父母和孩子、祖父母和邻居组成的，他们上班、照顾家人、过着自己的生活，”他补充道。

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纽森宣布加州进入紧急状态，迎接超级厄尔尼诺风暴季

科学家预测，未来几个月，厄尔尼诺现象将使全球陆地温度比正常水平升高1.2摄氏度（2.1华氏度）。研究表明，这种异常高温正是气候变化预计在20年后带来的结果，并将导致极端高温天气天数比正常年份增加44%。

作者写道，当前的厄尔尼诺现象就像一张“来自未来的明信片”，在世界来不及适应之前就送到了我们面前。

预计受影响最严重的地区绝大多数位于全球南方。报告指出，尼日利亚预计将成为厄尔尼诺现象导致高温死亡人数最多的国家，预计将有31400人丧生。其他高风险国家包括印度尼西亚、苏丹、印度和巴西。美国也位列受影响最严重的20个国家之列，预计将有3500人死亡。

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该报告综合运用同行评审的方法，分析了全球超过24000个地区的气温与死亡率和季节性气温预测之间的关系。报告将死亡预测值与1996年至2025年间平均年份同期的数据进行了比较。

该研究目前正在等待同行评审，但科学家表示，由于厄尔尼诺现象迅速增强，他们首先发布了这份篇幅较短的报告。“鉴于政策制定者和其他相关方现在仍有时间采取行动来防止这些死亡事件发生，我们认为我们的研究结果不能等到同行评审程序完成才发布。如果等到那时再采取行动，对于当前的厄尔尼诺周期来说肯定为时已晚，”气候影响实验室的一位发言人表示。

报告称，各国可以采取的措施包括发布高温预警、制定健康行动计划、确保提供降温和补水中心以及扩大医疗保健覆盖范围。

“加强应急响应并更有针对性地开展工作，今年可以挽救许多生命，”报告的合著者、气候影响实验室研究主任、加州大学伯克利分校助理教授塔玛·卡尔顿说。“但20年后，一旦今天的极端高温成为新常态，我们不希望一直处于紧急状态。”