10-year Treasury yield hits 5.1% for first time in 19 years

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US bond yields surged Wednesday to reclaim their highest levels in nearly two decades after new data depicted strong business activity and intensifying inflation concerns.

The key 10-year Treasury yield surged 17 basis points to 5.12%, a fresh high for this year and the highest level since 2007.

The 10-year yield topped 5% earlier this month before pulling back in recent days – and then surging on Wednesday.

The key benchmark helps set borrowing costs across the economy. As yields climb, that pushes up the cost of mortgages, auto loans and business loans.

Yields rise when bond prices fall. Yields have surged this year as traders assess the path of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, among other factors.

Bond yields jumped Wednesday morning after new economic data. Business activity in September accelerated at the fastest rate since July 2021, according to data from S&P Global. Meanwhile, input costs surged because of the rise in energy prices.

That raised bets that the Fed might continue raising interest rates to tamp down inflation, while having room to do so because of a strong economy. Odds for a Fed rate hike in October rose to 71%, up from 55% one day ago, according to the CME FedWatch forecasting tool.

Bond yields shot higher across the curve, with two-year, 10-year and 30-year yields all jumping. The 30-year yield surged 12 basis points to 5.41%, a fresh high for the year and its highest level since 2007.

The two-year Treasury yield, which tracks expectations for central bank policy, surged 17 basis points to hit 4.91%, its highest level since 2024.

“Overall, it was a much stronger-than-expected read on US business activity that implies ample latitude for both policy rates and Treasury yields to push higher in the near term,” Vail Hartman, US rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.

Yields were already on the rise Tuesday morning as global oil prices moved higher. Oil and yields had pulled back in recent days before ending those declines on Tuesday.

The front-month contract for Brent crude rose more than 3% and traded above $102 per barrel, rebounding after falling for the past five trading sessions. Traders are monitoring developments in the Middle East and trying to assess whether disruptions to oil flows will clear up or persist.

“Today has been a perfect storm fueling the surge in bond yields across the curve,” said Chip Hughey, managing director for fixed income at Truist Advisory Services.

The rise in oil prices and bond yields knocked stocks: The S&P 500 fell 0.65%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%.

Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Iran’s president says ‘we will never bow our head’ to Trump in defiant UN speech

Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday also told the United Nations General Assembly that Iran will not bend the knee to the United States as tensions continue over the Strait of Hormuz. Pezeshkian also said Tehran would not let the United States use the key shipping channel “to impose their aggressions upon us.”

“We cannot let some have free access and gain their interest from a waterway while at the same time using that waterway to impose their aggressions upon us, to impose insecurity upon us, to forbid us access to our own waterways,” Pezeshkian said at the summit in New York.

At the start of the year, some Wall Street banks were forecasting that the Fed might cut rates this year. But the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and signs of a resilient economy have completely shifted the course of policy. The Fed this month raised interest rates for the first time since 2023.

At the start of the year, the 10-year yield traded at 4.15%. Now, the yield is at 5.12%.

The rise in yields tightens financial conditions and makes the cost of borrowing more expensive. That can exacerbate concerns about affordability in an economy already defined by consumers feeling glum.

The Treasury Department has embarked on an increased buyback operation that can help tame a rise in yields. The Treasury on Wednesday announced it would conduct another buyback of up to $6 billion on Thursday, the second in a series of increased buybacks that allow for up to triple the size of a standard operation.

The Treasury on August 19 announced it would at least double the size of buybacks of long-term bonds from September to November. The standard operation is $2 billion, meaning the increased buybacks would be at least $4 billion.

Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

Bond yields hit highest levels since 2023 after Treasury Department announces up to $6 billion buyback

The first of the increased buybacks occurred on September 10, when the Treasury bought back $5.2 billion in bonds, slightly below the upper limit of $6 billion but still more than double the standard size.

The Treasury Department buybacks are one tool in Secretary Scott Bessent’s kit to try and slow the rise in yields. However, analysts said the size of the buybacks isn’t enough to be consequential in the more than $30 trillion Treasury market, and won’t change the fundamental forces leading to higher yields.

CNN’s Billy Stockwell contributed reporting.

图片来源：Ting Shen/Bloomberg/Getty Images

周三，美国国债收益率飙升，重回近二十年来的最高水平，此前公布的新数据显示商业活动强劲，但通胀担忧加剧。

关键的 10 年期美国国债收益率飙升 17 个基点至 5.12%，创下今年以来的新高，也是 2007 年以来的最高水平。

本月初，10 年期国债收益率一度突破 5%，但最近几天有所回落，周三又大幅飙升。

这一关键基准利率有助于设定整个经济体的借贷成本。随着收益率上升，抵押贷款、汽车贷款和商业贷款的成本也会随之上升。

债券价格下跌时，收益率上升。今年以来，由于交易员评估通胀路径和美联储基准利率等因素，债券收益率大幅飙升。

周三上午，受最新经济数据提振，债券收益率大幅上涨。标普全球的数据显示，9月份商业活动增速创下2021年7月以来的最快水平。与此同时，由于能源价格上涨，投入成本也大幅攀升。

这加剧了市场对美联储可能继续加息以抑制通胀的预期，同时由于经济强劲，美联储仍有加息空间。据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch预测工具显示，美联储10月份加息的概率从一天前的55%升至71%。

全线债券收益率大幅攀升，2年期、10年期和30年期债券收益率均出现大幅上涨。30年期债券收益率飙升12个基点至5.41%，创下年内新高，也是自2007年以来的最高水平。

反映央行政策预期的两年期美国国债收益率飙升 17 个基点，达到 4.91%，为 2024 年以来的最高水平。

BMO资本市场美国利率策略师韦尔·哈特曼在一份报告中写道：“总体而言，美国商业活动数据远超预期，这意味着政策利率和国债收益率在短期内都有很大的上涨空间。”

周二上午，随着全球油价走高，收益率已经开始攀升。此前几日油价和收益率均有所回落，周二结束了跌势。

布伦特原油近月合约上涨逾3%，交易价格突破每桶102美元，此前连续五个交易日下跌。交易员们正密切关注中东局势的发展，并试图评估石油供应中断的情况是会缓解还是会持续。

Truist Advisory Services 固定收益董事总经理 Chip Hughey 表示：“今天各种因素叠加，导致债券收益率曲线全面飙升。”

油价和债券收益率的上涨令股市承压：标普500指数下跌0.65%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.1%。

布伦丹·麦克德米德/路透社

伊朗总统在联合国发表强硬讲话，称“我们永远不会向特朗普低头”。

伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安周三在联合国大会上表示，随着霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势持续升级，伊朗不会向美国屈服。佩泽什基安还表示，德黑兰不会允许美国利用这条关键航道“对我们施加侵略”。

“我们不能一方面允许某些人自由使用水道并从中获利，另一方面又利用这条水道对我们施加侵略，给我们带来不安全感，禁止我们进入自己的水道，”佩泽什基安在纽约峰会上说。

年初时，一些华尔街银行预测美联储今年可能会降息。但伊朗战争引发的能源冲击以及经济韧性的迹象彻底改变了政策走向。美联储本月自2023年以来首次加息。

年初时，10年期国债收益率为4.15%。现在，收益率为5.12%。

收益率上升会收紧金融环境，增加借贷成本。这可能会加剧消费者情绪低落的经济环境下人们对购房能力的担忧。

美国财政部已启动一项规模更大的债券回购计划，旨在抑制收益率上升。财政部周三宣布，将于周四进行另一次规模高达60亿美元的债券回购，这是系列扩大回购计划中的第二次，该计划允许回购规模达到标准回购计划的三倍。

美国财政部8月19日宣布，将从9月到11月至少增加一倍的长期债券回购规模。通常情况下，回购规模为20亿美元，这意味着增加后的回购规模至少为40亿美元。

Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

财政部宣布高达60亿美元的债券回购计划后，债券收益率达到2023年以来的最高水平。

首次增加的债券回购发生在 9 月 10 日，当时财政部回购了 52 亿美元的债券，略低于 60 亿美元的上限，但仍然是标准规模的两倍多。

财政部回购国债是部长斯科特·贝森特用来减缓收益率上升的工具之一。然而，分析师表示，此次回购规模不足以对超过30万亿美元的国债市场产生显著影响，也无法改变导致收益率上升的根本原因。

CNN记者比利·斯托克韦尔对此报道亦有贡献。