Trump is staying out of Saudi Arabia’s war. Americans could pay at the pump

We touched down, hours late, in the scorching Saudi capital after yet another security scare closed the airspace and delayed flights in and out.

The hot and dusty city streets were bathed in decorative green light to celebrate National Day, as hundreds of electronic billboards projected the sword and script of the Saudi flag, shown fluttering as if caught in a breeze.

Just days before, a plume of thick black smoke could be seen billowing from fuel tanks near the international airport after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels targeted Riyadh for the first time in years – a major escalation in a bitter regional conflict that is now having a direct impact in the United States.

“For Americans this is immensely serious stuff,” one former Gulf official told CNN.

Between conflicts in Iran and Yemen, Saudi’s oil “is now being strangled between two choke points and that will have a ripple effect on prices down the line,” the former official added.

Saudi Arabia is, of course, the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil, pouring millions of barrels a day into the global market and giving the kingdom unmatched influence on prices – and, ultimately, on how much Americans pay at the pump.

But the US and Israeli war on Iran, launched on February 28, resulted in the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cutting off the kingdom’s most important export route, as well as that of other Gulf Arab states.

Now, with the Houthis and other Iranian proxies stepping up their own attacks, Saudi Arabia’s essential backup routes are also under threat – with potentially devastating consequences for the global oil supply and for US consumers who are already enduring historically high prices for gasoline and diesel.

Win McNamee/Getty Images/File

Gulf leaders meet Trump with two fears: more war and less US protection

“I don’t think America fully appreciates the impact this deteriorating security situation is having, nor the longer-term impact this is likely to have,” said Neil Quilliam, an energy policy, geopolitics and foreign affairs specialist, at the Chatham House think tank in London.

“This is not necessarily about the price of oil today, whether it sits at $100 or whether it goes up to $109 a barrel. What’s happened in Hormuz, for example, is structural. There’s no going back to the situation before February 28,” Quilliam told CNN.

Recent weeks have seen attacks by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias on the key Saudi East-West pipeline, knocking out millions of barrels of exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

There’s also been a series of lightning military advances by the Houthis, who in recent weeks have seized effective control of the vital Bab al-Mandeb Strait – a strategic waterway at the mouth of the Red Sea, through which much of Saudi’s oil exports have been diverted since the Iran war – and declared a blockade of Saudi shipping.

Alarmed at the unexpected setback, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who last year agreed a defense pact with Washington, personally requested US military intervention but was rebuffed, a source familiar with the matter told CNN.

In recent remarks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated that decision could be reviewed. But US President Donald Trump has been making clear that his current red line is carrying out strikes against the Houthis, with whom he says the US is talking.

“The Houthis called us and they don’t want to fight with us,” Trump said in remarks to reporters earlier this month.

“It’s just one country they’re not too happy with,” Trump added, referring to Saudi Arabia. “And we’ll get that straightened out.”

Meanwhile, anxiety and frustration in the kingdom appear to be ratcheting up, even spilling over into the annual National Day festivities.

Amid the threat of renewed Houthi strikes, widely publicized drone and firework displays were abruptly called off across the country. Organizers say they are merely postponed until further notice.

But at a festive National Day meal in Riyadh, where families dined while patriotic songs filled the room, there was a growing sense that the public mood may be darkening.

“Of course, not everything our two countries ask of each other can be done,” one diner, who gave his name only as Khaled, told CNN.

“But we are being held by the throat and Trump should strike the Houthis because they are thugs who want to disrupt global trade,” he added.

Still, there are good reasons Trump may be holding back, not least to avoid opening a potentially painful second front, just seven months after launching his damaging and ongoing conflict with Iran.

How the U.S. views the escalating Saudi-Houthi conflict

There may also be solid reservations about the effectiveness of US airstrikes, given that a punishing – and expensive – 50-day, US-led bombing campaign last year ended in a truce and failed to permanently degrade Houthi resolve.

But reluctance to intervene is risky too, further eroding US credibility in the region as a reliable security partner, already undermined by an Iran war that has left US allies in the Gulf region feeling dangerously exposed.

“It’s absolutely a mistake not fully backing Saudi Arabia militarily against the Houthis,” the former Gulf official told CNN.

Houthi Military Media/Reuters

“This is an international problem and that is why the lack of a US response is a failure of US policy,” the former official added.

There’s also the serious economic risk of allowing exports of Saudi oil to be curbed even more than they already have been.

Although the US is the world’s biggest oil producer, it is not insulated from turmoil in the Middle East. Contrary to Trump’s suggestion that Washington’s limited reliance on the region’s oil shields it from disruption, crude trades on a global market: when Middle Eastern supplies are threatened, prices rise worldwide and American drivers feel it at the pump.

Any drop in Saudi exports means higher prices for everyone. That’s the kind of sensitive political pressure point that Trump may be desperate to avoid as crucial November midterm elections loom.

In other words, Yemen and the Houthis may seem like yet another distant problem to Americans, many of whom are understandably fatigued by foreign interventions, and struggling with a spiraling cost of living.

But from a searingly hot and tense Riyadh, draped in its green flags and patriotic banners, Saudi Arabia’s problem seems very much like America’s problem too.

由于又一次安全警报导致空域关闭，进出港航班延误，我们比原计划晚了几个小时才抵达酷热的沙特首都。

为了庆祝国庆日，炎热尘土飞扬的城市街道被装饰性的绿色灯光笼罩，数百块电子广告牌投射出沙特阿拉伯国旗上的剑和文字，仿佛在微风中飘扬。

就在几天前，也门胡塞武装（伊朗支持）多年来首次袭击利雅得，导致国际机场附近的油罐冒出滚滚浓烟——这是这场激烈的地区冲突的重大升级，如今这场冲突正对美国产生直接影响。

一位海湾国家前官员告诉 CNN：“对美国人来说，这是极其严重的事情。”

这位前官员补充说，由于伊朗和也门的冲突，沙特的石油“现在正被夹在两个咽喉要道之间，这将对未来的油价产生连锁反应”。

当然，沙特阿拉伯是世界上最大的原油出口国，每天向全球市场输送数百万桶原油，这使得沙特王国对油价拥有无与伦比的影响力——并最终影响着美国人在加油站支付的油价。

但美国和以色列于 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动的战争导致霍尔木兹海峡部分关闭，实际上切断了伊朗王国以及其他海湾阿拉伯国家最重要的出口通道。

现在，随着胡塞武装和其他伊朗代理人加紧发动袭击，沙特阿拉伯至关重要的备用路线也受到威胁——这可能会对全球石油供应以及已经承受着历史高位汽油和柴油价格的美国消费者造成毁灭性后果。

Win McNamee/Getty Images/文件

海湾国家领导人带着两点担忧会见特朗普：更多的战争和美国保护力度的减弱。

“我认为美国并没有充分认识到这种不断恶化的安全局势正在造成的影响，也没有认识到这可能会造成的长期影响，”伦敦查塔姆研究所的能源政策、地缘政治和外交事务专家尼尔·奎利亚姆说。

“这不一定与今天的油价有关，无论油价是每桶100美元还是上涨到109美元。例如，霍尔木兹海域发生的事情是结构性的。2月28日之前的情况已经无法挽回了，”奎利亚姆告诉CNN。

最近几周，伊朗支持的伊拉克民兵袭击了沙特阿拉伯重要的东西输油管道，导致红海港口延布数百万桶原油出口中断。

此外，胡塞武装也取得了一系列闪电般的军事进展，在最近几周，他们有效控制了至关重要的曼德海峡——这条位于红海入口的战略水道，自伊朗战争以来，沙特阿拉伯的大部分石油出口都经由此海峡运输——并宣布封锁沙特阿拉伯的航运。

据一位知情人士向 CNN 透露，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼对这一意外挫折感到震惊，他去年与华盛顿达成了一项防务协议，并亲自请求美国进行军事干预，但遭到拒绝。

美国国务卿马可·卢比奥近期表示，这一决定可能会重新考虑。但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已明确表示，他目前的底线是打击胡塞武装，并称美国正在与胡塞武装进行对话。

“胡塞武装给我们打了电话，他们不想和我们一起战斗，”特朗普本月早些时候对记者说。

“他们只是对沙特阿拉伯这个国家不太满意而已，”特朗普补充道，“我们会解决这个问题。”

与此同时，王国的焦虑和沮丧情绪似乎正在加剧，甚至蔓延到了每年的国庆节庆祝活动中。

由于胡塞武装可能再次发动袭击，全国各地广为人知的无人机和烟花表演突然被取消。组织者表示，这些活动只是延期举行，具体时间另行通知。

但在利雅得举行的国庆节庆祝活动上，当爱国歌曲响彻整个房间，家人们围坐在餐桌旁用餐时，人们越来越感觉到公众情绪可能正在恶化。

一位名叫哈立德的用餐者告诉 CNN：“当然，我们两国不可能满足彼此的所有要求。”

“但我们正被扼住喉咙，特朗普应该打击胡塞武装，因为他们是想扰乱全球贸易的暴徒，”他补充道。

不过，特朗普有所保留也有其原因，尤其是为了避免在与伊朗发动破坏性且持续不断的冲突仅仅七个月后，就开辟可能带来痛苦的第二战场。

美国如何看待不断升级的沙特-胡塞冲突

鉴于去年美国领导的代价高昂且耗资巨大的 50 天轰炸行动以停火告终，并且未能从根本上削弱胡塞武装的决心，人们可能对美国空袭的有效性抱有合理的保留意见。

但不愿干预也存在风险，会进一步削弱美国在该地区作为可靠安全伙伴的信誉，而伊朗战争已经损害了美国的信誉，使海湾地区的盟友感到自身处境危险。

这位前海湾官员告诉 CNN：“不全力支持沙特阿拉伯军事对抗胡塞武装绝对是一个错误。”

胡塞武装媒体/路透社

“这是一个国际问题，因此美国缺乏回应是美国政策的失败，”这位前官员补充道。

此外，如果进一步限制沙特石油出口，还会带来严重的经济风险。

尽管美国是世界最大的石油生产国，但它并不能免受中东动荡的影响。特朗普声称华盛顿对该地区石油的依赖程度有限，因此不会受到冲击，但事实并非如此。原油是在全球市场上交易的：当中东石油供应受到威胁时，全球油价都会上涨，美国司机在加油时也会感受到油价上涨的影响。

沙特出口的任何下降都意味着所有人的价格都会上涨。随着至关重要的11月中期选举临近，这正是特朗普极力想要避免的敏感政治压力点。

换句话说，也门和胡塞武装对美国人来说可能又是一个遥远的问题，许多美国人对外国干预感到厌倦，并且正在努力应对不断上涨的生活成本。

但从酷热紧张的利雅得（到处飘扬着绿色旗帜和爱国横幅）望去，沙特阿拉伯的问题似乎与美国的问题非常相似。