Russian defense plan kicks off separate AI development push

MOSCOW — Russian officials have unveiled a new 10-year defense plan that includes a dedicated section on artificial intelligence, signaling Moscow’s focus on fielding autonomous weapons.

The move comes as Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighbor Ukraine has triggered an AI arms race on the battlefields there, especially in aerial and land drones , that analysts believe will shape future conflicts.

Elements of artificial intelligence have long been used in the Russian military industry, which is tightly controlled by the government. For example, there is a cluster of ground robot makers for the Marker, Platforma-M, Soratnik, Uran-9 vehicles that have supplied their wares for the war against Ukraine.

The country’s missile complex, too, has a history in infusing varying degrees of autonomy into targeting algorithms, perhaps most famously under the Perimeter program, a Soviet-era algorithm sequence for orchestrating a retaliatory nuclear strike.

Now, Russian officials are outfitting equipment returning for repairs from the Ukraine war with new technology, like remotely controlled fire modules, automatic target tracking, and propulsion systems, Vasily Elistratov, who oversees AI technology at the Russian Ministry of Defence, said at the Forum Army-2024 held here this month.

According to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko, the volume of the Russian AI market in 2023 reached almost 650 billion rubles, or $7.3 billion, an amount dwarfed by spending in the collective West on various outgrowths of the technology.

The dedicated AI budget line, for which officials have yet to give a number, is meant to help facilitate the transition into defense applications. A specialized department for the development of artificial intelligence is now in place in the Russian Defense Ministry, Chernyshenko announced.

For example, an AI control capability is now in development for the S-500 air-defense system, with threat assessment and damage prediction of a possible ballistic missile attack.

“The Russian defense industry will develop artificial intelligence and automated systems for products with high speed, where errors are not so critical,” said Sergei Smyslov, an independent defense industry expert based in Russia. With that in mind, potential applications include missile defense systems, artillery shells and aerial drones, he added.

Another area of AI use will be aviation and artillery to increase their efficiency, said Pavel Luzin, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. Autonomous attack drones will likely remain commodities for a long time. As for autonomous ground robots, most of them will be used to supply troops on the battlefield and evacuate the wounded. AI will also be used in computer modeling of military campaigns during their preparation, Luzin said.

Russia is also going to use AI to improve the production processes of military products, with automatic quality checks that will trigger a manufacturing halt if they fail.

The Ministry of Defense by itself is unlikely to be able to effectively develop weapons with AI. There is a personnel problem in the scientific institutes of the Ministry of Defense, as the best graduates tend to go elsewhere.

Government officials have been building a development track in the government-owned industries instead, for example through Rostec companies and the Era Foundation, according to Luzin.

In early 2022, Rostec State Corporation’s Roselektronika Holding created the Artificial Intelligence Technologies Research Laboratory, which is engaged in research on the use of AI in radio communication systems, development in the field of virtual-reality technologies, big data technologies, and machine learning of deep neural networks.

The Era Foundation seeks to identify new technology among private companies and universities. In August, the foundation selected eight projects – including an unmanned boat, a remote-controlled turret, various drones, and a drone-detection system – that will receive funding to enter mass production.

Maxim Starchak is a Russia correspondent for Defense News. He previously worked as an editor for the Russian Defence Ministry and as an expert for the NATO Information Office in Moscow. He has covered Russian nuclear and defense issues for the Atlantic Council, the Center for European Policy Analysis, the Royal United Services Institute and more.

莫斯科——俄罗斯官员公布了一项新的十年国防计划，其中包括一个专门针对人工智能的章节，这表明莫斯科致力于部署自主武器。

俄罗斯全面入侵邻国乌克兰，引发了乌克兰战场上的人工智能军备竞赛，尤其是在空中和陆地无人机领域。分析人士认为，这将影响未来的冲突。

人工智能技术早已应用于俄罗斯军工产业，而该产业受到政府的严格控制。例如，俄罗斯就存在一个地面机器人制造商集群，其生产的“标记者”（Marker）、“平台-M”（Platforma-M）、“索拉特尼克”（Soratnik）、“天王星-9”（Uran-9）等车辆就曾被用于对乌克兰的战争。

该国的导弹系统也有着将不同程度的自主性注入目标算法的历史，其中最著名的或许是“周界”计划，这是苏联时期用于策划报复性核打击的算法序列。

俄罗斯国防部人工智能技术主管瓦西里·埃利斯特拉托夫在本月于此举行的“军队-2024”论坛上表示，俄罗斯官员正在为从乌克兰战争中返回进行维修的装备配备新技术，例如远程控制火力模块、自动目标跟踪和推进系统。

据俄罗斯副总理德米特里·切尔尼申科称，2023 年俄罗斯人工智能市场规模将达到近 6500 亿卢布，约合 73 亿美元，但这一数额与西方国家在人工智能技术的各种衍生领域的总支出相比相形见绌。

官员们尚未公布具体数额，但专门用于人工智能的预算旨在促进其向国防领域的应用过渡。切尔尼申科宣布，俄罗斯国防部已设立专门的人工智能研发部门。

例如，目前正在为 S-500 防空系统开发人工智能控制能力，用于对可能的弹道导弹袭击进行威胁评估和损害预测。

“俄罗斯国防工业将为高速生产的产品开发人工智能和自动化系统，因为这类产品的误差容忍度不高，”俄罗斯独立国防工业专家谢尔盖·斯梅斯洛夫表示。他补充说，基于此，潜在的应用领域包括导弹防御系统、炮弹和无人机。

欧洲政策分析中心高级研究员帕维尔·卢津表示，人工智能的另一应用领域是航空和炮兵，旨在提高其效率。自主攻击无人机很可能在很长一段时间内仍将是常规装备。至于自主地面机器人，它们中的大多数将用于战场补给和伤员撤离。卢津还指出，人工智能也将在军事行动的准备阶段用于计算机建模。

俄罗斯还将利用人工智能来改进军用产品的生产流程，通过自动质量检查，如果检查不合格，将触发生产停止。

国防部自身不太可能有效地研发人工智能武器。国防部下属科研机构存在人才短缺问题，因为最优秀的毕业生往往会跳槽到其他地方。

卢津表示，政府官员一直在国有企业中构建发展轨道，例如通过俄罗斯国家技术集团公司和时代基金会。

2022年初，俄罗斯国家技术集团旗下的Roselektronika控股公司创建了人工智能技术研究实验室，该实验室致力于人工智能在无线电通信系统中的应用研究、虚拟现实技术、大数据技术以及深度神经网络机器学习领域的开发。

时代基金会致力于发掘私营企业和高校的新兴技术。今年8月，该基金会遴选出八个项目，包括无人船、遥控炮塔、多种无人机以及无人机探测系统，这些项目将获得资金支持，投入量产。

马克西姆·斯塔恰克是《防务新闻》的俄罗斯特派记者。他曾任俄罗斯国防部编辑，也曾担任北约驻莫斯科新闻办公室专家。他还曾为大西洋理事会、欧洲政策分析中心、皇家联合军种研究所等机构报道俄罗斯核问题和国防问题。