Mortgage rates top 7%, dealing a further blow to the frozen housing market

Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Mortgage rates reached a grim milestone this week, topping 7% for the first time since January 2025 and reaching their highest level during either of Donald Trump’s presidential terms.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.03% this week, up from 6.95% last week, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac.

It’s the fifth-straight week of rising mortgage rates, putting a deeper squeeze on housing affordability. Higher rates mean larger monthly payments and less purchasing power for buyers.

“Beyond the immediate financial constraints, the 7% threshold is a foreboding psychological barrier,” said Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant. “Crossing this mark could create a chilling effect on the market, leading to home sales transactions to slow considerably this fall.”

However, mortgage rates remain well below the 7.79% peak they hit in 2023, when inflation was running at decades-high levels.

About seven months ago, the average 30-year mortgage rate briefly dipped below 6% for the first time in years, prompting hopes that cheaper borrowing would finally unfreeze the housing market. Instead, those hopes have faded as the war in Iran has pushed oil prices higher, adding fresh pressure to overall inflation and mortgage rates.

CNN Poll: Support for Iran War Collapsing | The Source with Kaitlan Collins | CNN Audio

Consider the difference between a homebuyer who locked in their mortgage rate in February, when the average briefly fell to 5.98%, and someone buying today. On a median-priced home with a 20% down payment, today’s buyer would pay hundreds of thousands of dollars more in interest over the life of a 30-year mortgage.

“Expect 7% as the new normal,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, in a blog post last week.

Action in the bond market is the chief cause for higher mortgage rates. US bond yields have climbed this year, pushing up interest rates across the economy.

The 10-year US Treasury yield is a benchmark for mortgage rates: They loosely track the 10-year, which moves with investors’ expectations for rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, but also inflation and growth expectations.

Know your bonds: A quick guide to Treasuries

As the 10-year yield has climbed this year, mortgage rates have pushed higher. And this week, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level in nearly two decades after fresh data on Wednesday pointed to a strong economy and intensifying inflation nerves.

The 10-year yield started the year at around 4.15%, and is now trading around 5.15%, its highest level since 2007. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.16% at the start of the year.

Bond yields are rising as markets adjust to central banks starting to raise interest rates to tamp down inflation driven in large part by the energy shock caused by the Iran war.

The move higher in bond yields raises the cost of borrowing money, and some economists worry that yields have reached levels that could pose a risk for the broader economy.

Higher bond yields translate into higher mortgage rates, as well as auto loans, consumer loans and commercial loans.

When Trump left office in January 2021, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was just below 2.8%.

A property developer and real estate investor himself, Trump placed the blame for the subsequent rise in mortgage rates squarely on the Fed’s shoulders. While mortgage rates don’t directly follow the central bank’s policy moves, Trump often berated former Fed Chair Jerome Powell for failing to lower the Fed’s benchmark interest rate quickly enough when inflation initially spiked during the early years of the pandemic.

Last week, Trump’s handpicked successor to Powell, Kevin Warsh, announced that the central bank hiked interest rates by a quarter point – its first hike since July 2023 – in an attempt to tamp down inflation. The central bank’s members have indicated they foresee at least one other rate hike in 2026.

On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump posted last week that “interest rates in the United States should be 1%, or less,” a significant drop from the Fed’s current rate range of 3.75% to 4%.

Higher rates are already starting to slow down the housing market.

Shares of some of the country’s largest homebuilders, including Lennar ( LEN ), D.R. Horton ( DHI ) and PulteGroup ( PHM ), have fallen over the past month as higher borrowing costs threaten to weigh on both home sales and new construction.

Last week, Lennar CEO Stuart Miller warned that many homebuyers are “clearly stretching” to afford to afford a home lately, attributing the company’s disappointing earnings to higher mortgage rates and stubborn inflation.

Although the pace of home sales have remained largely unchanged this year compared to last year, according to NAR data through August, there are some signs that higher mortgage rates have started scaring off some buyers.

Travis Dove/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Some homeowners have been waiting years for mortgage relief. It keeps slipping away

Pending home sales, which measure the number of homes under contract, rose 0.3% in August from July, but fell 4.7% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Mortgage applications to buy a new home fell 11% last week from the same week a year ago, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released on Wednesday.

Among those still looking to buy, more borrowers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs – a riskier loan product that played a role in the housing market’s buildup to the 2008 financial crisis.

Nearly 10% of borrowers opted for an ARM last week, according to the MBA. These loans typically offer a lower fixed rate for five, seven or 10 years before resetting with market rates. If rates are higher when the fixed period ends, borrowers can face sharply higher monthly payments.

Rates on 5/1 ARMs – which are fixed for five years and then adjust annually – were more than a percentage point lower than those for fixed-rate loans last week, said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.

Home prices have yet to reflect a national slowdown in demand, though. The median existing home price was $429,100 in August, the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases, according to NAR.

Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg/Getty Images

本周抵押贷款利率达到了一个严峻的里程碑，自 2025 年 1 月以来首次超过 7%，并达到唐纳德·特朗普两届总统任期内的最高水平。

根据房地美周四公布的数据，本周30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率攀升至7.03%，高于上周的6.95%。

这是抵押贷款利率连续第五周上涨，进一步加剧了住房负担能力的压力。利率上升意味着每月还款额增加，购房者的购买力下降。

“除了眼前的财务压力之外，7%的门槛也是一个令人担忧的心理障碍，”Bright MLS首席经济学家丽莎·斯特蒂文特表示。“一旦突破这一关口，可能会对市场产生寒蝉效应，导致今年秋季房屋销售交易量大幅放缓。”

然而，抵押贷款利率仍远低于 2023 年达到的 7.79% 的峰值，当时通货膨胀率处于数十年来的最高水平。

大约七个月前，30年期抵押贷款平均利率多年来首次短暂跌破6%，这曾一度燃起人们的希望，认为更低的借贷成本最终会打破房地产市场的僵局。然而，随着伊朗战争推高油价，并给整体通胀和抵押贷款利率带来新的压力，这些希望也随之破灭。

CNN民调：伊朗战争支持率暴跌 | Kaitlan Collins主持的《The Source》节目 | CNN音频

试想一下，如果购房者在二月份锁定抵押贷款利率（当时平均利率一度降至5.98%），那么与今天购房者相比，情况会有何不同。如果购买一套中等价位的房屋，首付20%，那么在30年的抵押贷款期限内，今天的购房者将多支付数十万美元的利息。

“预计 7% 将成为新的常态，”全国房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家劳伦斯·云上周在一篇博客文章中表示。

债券市场的波动是导致抵押贷款利率上升的主要原因。今年以来，美国国债收益率持续攀升，推高了整体经济的利率水平。

10 年期美国国债收益率是抵押贷款利率的基准：抵押贷款利率大致与 10 年期国债收益率同步波动，而 10 年期国债收益率的波动又与投资者对美联储利率决策的预期以及通胀和增长预期有关。

了解债券：美国国债快速指南

今年以来，随着10年期国债收益率攀升，抵押贷款利率也随之走高。本周，在周三公布的最新数据显示经济强劲增长，通胀担忧加剧之后，10年期美国国债收益率飙升至近20年来的最高水平。

10年期国债收益率年初约为4.15%，目前约为5.15%，为2007年以来的最高水平。年初时，30年期固定抵押贷款利率平均为6.16%。

由于市场开始调整以应对各国央行为抑制通胀而逐步提高利率的举措（通胀很大程度上是由伊朗战争引发的能源冲击造成的），债券收益率正在上升。

债券收益率上升提高了借贷成本，一些经济学家担心收益率已经达到可能对整体经济构成风险的水平。

债券收益率上升会导致抵押贷款利率上升，汽车贷款利率上升、消费贷款利率上升以及商业贷款利率上升。

2021 年 1 月特朗普卸任时，30 年期固定抵押贷款利率略低于 2.8%。

特朗普本人就是一名房地产开发商和投资者，他将随后抵押贷款利率上涨的责任完全归咎于美联储。虽然抵押贷款利率并非直接跟随央行的政策行动，但特朗普经常指责前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在疫情初期通胀飙升时未能及时降低美联储的基准利率。

上周，特朗普钦点的鲍威尔继任者凯文·沃什宣布，美联储将利率上调0.25个百分点——这是自2023年7月以来的首次加息——以抑制通胀。美联储成员表示，他们预计2026年至少还会再加息一次。

上周，特朗普在他的社交媒体平台 Truth Social 上发帖称，“美国的利率应该为 1% 或更低”，这比美联储目前的利率区间 3.75% 至 4% 大幅下降。

利率上升已经开始抑制房地产市场的发展。

过去一个月，包括 Lennar (LEN)、DR Horton (DHI) 和 PulteGroup (PHM) 在内的一些美国最大的房屋建筑商的股票均出现下跌，因为更高的借贷成本可能会对房屋销售和新房建设都造成压力。

上周，莱纳公司首席执行官斯图尔特·米勒警告说，最近许多购房者“显然都在勉强”买房，并将公司令人失望的收益归咎于更高的抵押贷款利率和持续的通货膨胀。

根据美国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）截至8月份的数据，尽管今年房屋销售速度与去年相比基本保持不变，但有迹象表明，较高的抵押贷款利率已经开始吓退一些购房者。

Travis Dove/Bloomberg/Getty Images

有些房主已经等了好几年才等到抵押贷款减免，但减免政策却迟迟没有出炉。

据美国房地产经纪人协会的数据显示，8 月份待售房屋数量（衡量已签订合同房屋数量的指标）比 7 月份增长了 0.3%，但比去年同期下降了 4.7%。

根据抵押贷款银行家协会周三公布的数据，上周购买新房的抵押贷款申请量比去年同期下降了 11%。

在那些仍然想要购房的人中，越来越多的借款人转向了可变利率抵押贷款（ARM）——这是一种风险较高的贷款产品，在 2008 年金融危机爆发前，房地产市场曾受到冲击。

据美国抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）统计，上周近10%的借款人选择了浮动利率抵押贷款（ARM）。这类贷款通常提供5年、7年或10年的较低固定利率，之后利率将根据市场利率进行调整。如果固定利率期结束后市场利率上升，借款人可能面临更高的月供。

MBA首席经济学家迈克·弗拉坦托尼表示，上周5/1 ARM（五年固定利率，之后每年调整）的利率比固定利率贷款的利率低了一个百分点以上。

尽管房价尚未反映出全国范围内的需求放缓，但据美国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）的数据显示，8月份现有房屋价格中位数为429,100美元，这是房价连续第38个月同比上涨。