Argentina’s poverty rises to 32 percent under Milei with more pain forecast

Estimates by the UCA suggest the poverty rate could reach 35 percent this year, reversing a sharp decline in 2025.

People sit inside a chapel while waiting for a meal distribution in the Villa 31 neighbourhood of Buenos Aires, Argentina, on August 28, 2026 [Agustin Marcarian/Reuters]

Argentina’s poverty rate has risen, hitting 32.3 percent in the first half of 2026 under President Javier Milei, partly erasing the country’s earlier gains.

According to figures released by the national statistics agency INDEC on Thursday, the poverty rate rose 4.1 percentage points between January and June compared with the last half of 2025, moving from 28.2 to 32.3 percent.

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Extreme poverty — where households cannot afford basic food needs — also rose from 6.3 to 7.5 percent.

More Argentinians found themselves out of work in the second quarter after unemployment rose to 7.9 percent, the country’s highest level since 2021. For many who remain employed, their wages have struggled to keep up with the rising cost of basic goods and services.

Household income per person rose 11.5 percent in the first six months of the year, but the cost of necessities used to calculate the poverty line rose nearly 20 percent, according to INDEC.

The economic pain is expected to worsen.

Estimates from the Catholic University of Argentina (UCA), widely seen as an early indicator of official poverty trends, suggest the poverty rate could rise to 35 percent by the end of the year.

Argentinian President Javier Milei gestures as he speaks during a ceremony commemorating the 172nd anniversary of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on July 16, 2026 [Mariana Nedelcu/Reuters]

The news comes after Milei, elected in 2023, repeatedly touted declining poverty as evidence that his free-market economic overhaul was bearing fruit.

Poverty surged to nearly 53 percent in the first half of 2024 after his government’s devaluation of the peso and sweeping spending cuts sharply reduced purchasing power. But the rate then fell rapidly as Milei’s austerity drive eased inflation, reaching 28.2 percent in the second half of 2025, the lowest level since early 2018.

Even with this year’s rise, the poverty rate remains below the level reached in the first half of 2024, Milei’s first year in office, when it exceeded 50 percent.

Analysts say it could signal that social gains driven by slowing inflation are losing momentum, with further progress increasingly dependent on stronger job creation and real wage growth.

Average salaries are still below where they stood in real terms when Milei took office in December 2023.

“A modest increase in poverty would not undo the large decline seen under Milei, but it would suggest that the easier part of the improvement has run its course,” Nicholas Watson, managing director for Latin America at consultancy Teneo, said.

Workers, union members and social organisation activists march towards Argentina’s Economy Ministry in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on August 20, 2026, during a protest that organisers say was against rising household debt [Antonio Becerra Pegoraro/Reuters]

Rising hardship appears to be damaging Milei’s support among lower-income voters as he seeks re-election in 2027.

The latest opinion polls suggest his approval rating has fallen sharply among poorer respondents surveyed, raising questions about whether he can retain a constituency that was central to his previous election victory.

A September AtlasIntel survey found disapproval among lower-income respondents, defined as those earning up to about $650 a month, had climbed to nearly 70 percent, while approval fell below 30 percent. A year earlier, those figures stood at 57 percent and 37 percent, respectively.

UCA 的估计表明，今年的贫困率可能达到 35%，扭转 2025 年的急剧下降趋势。

2026年8月28日，在阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯的Villa 31社区，人们坐在教堂里等待分发食物。[Agustin Marcarian/路透社]

阿根廷的贫困率上升，在哈维尔·米莱总统的领导下，2026 年上半年达到 32.3%，部分抵消了该国此前取得的成果。

根据国家统计局 INDEC 周四公布的数据，今年 1 月至 6 月的贫困率比 2025 年下半年上升了 4.1 个百分点，从 28.2% 升至 32.3%。

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极端贫困（即家庭无法负担基本食物需求）的比例也从 6.3% 上升到 7.5%。

第二季度，阿根廷失业人数进一步增加，失业率升至7.9%，为2021年以来的最高水平。对于许多仍在工作的人来说，他们的工资难以跟上基本商品和服务价格上涨的步伐。

据 INDEC 数据显示，今年前六个月，家庭人均收入增长了 11.5%，但用于计算贫困线的必需品成本却上涨了近 20%。

经济困境预计将会加剧。

阿根廷天主教大学 (UCA) 的估计被广泛视为官方贫困趋势的早期指标，该估计表明，到今年年底，贫困率可能会上升到 35%。

2026年7月16日，阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱在布宜诺斯艾利斯举行的布宜诺斯艾利斯证券交易所成立172周年纪念仪式上发表讲话时做出手势。[Mariana Nedelcu/路透社]

此前，2023 年当选的米莱曾多次吹捧贫困人口减少，以此证明他的自由市场经济改革取得了成效。

2024年上半年，由于政府比索贬值和大幅削减开支导致购买力下降，贫困率飙升至近53%。但随后，随着米莱伊推行的紧缩政策缓解了通货膨胀，贫困率迅速下降，2025年下半年降至28.2%，为2018年初以来的最低水平。

即使今年有所上升，贫困率仍然低于 2024 年上半年的水平，当时米莱上任第一年，贫困率超过了 50%。

分析人士表示，这可能表明，通胀放缓推动的社会进步正在失去动力，未来的发展越来越依赖于更强劲的就业增长和实际工资增长。

平均工资仍然低于米莱在 2023 年 12 月上任时的实际水平。

“贫困人口的适度增加不会抵消米莱执政期间取得的大幅下降，但这表明，改善过程中比较容易的部分已经过去了，”咨询公司 Teneo 拉丁美洲总经理尼古拉斯·沃森表示。

2026年8月20日，在阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯，工人、工会成员和社会组织活动人士游行前往阿根廷经济部，组织者称此次抗议活动是为了反对不断上涨的家庭债务。[Antonio Becerra Pegoraro/路透社]

生活困境加剧似乎正在损害米莱在低收入选民中的支持率，而他正寻求在 2027 年连任。

最新的民意调查显示，他在受访的贫困受访者中的支持率大幅下降，这引发了人们对他能否保住此前助他赢得选举的核心选民群体的质疑。

AtlasIntel 9 月份的一项调查发现，在低收入受访者（月收入约 650 美元以下）中，不赞成的比例已攀升至近 70%，而赞成的比例则降至 30% 以下。一年前，这两个数字分别为 57% 和 37%。