Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is up 2 points, but that’s still within the poll’s margin of error.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (left) and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (right) [File: Adriano Machado/Reuters]

⁠Brazilian President ⁠Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, ⁠his main challenger, in a potential run-off ahead of October’s presidential election, a Datafolha poll has shown.

In poll results released Thursday, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off. A previous Datafolha poll last week had ‌Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46 percent to 44 percent.

The result also represents a technical tie as it falls within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points.

In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with ⁠40 percent of the vote, followed ⁠by Bolsonaro (36 percent), Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (4 percent) and Renan Santos (3 percent).

The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39 percent against the ⁠right-wing senator’s 36 percent.

Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of ⁠former President Jair Bolsonaro, who ⁠is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.

Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president.

If no candidate ‌wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance ‌to ‌a run-off.

Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23.

Earlier this week, two other polls showed similar results.

A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential run-off, versus 41 percent for Lula.

Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential run-off.

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦领先 2 个百分点，但这仍在民意调查的误差范围内。

巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（左）和参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗（右）[文件：阿德里亚诺·马查多/路透社]

巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在10月总统大选前可能举行的第二轮投票中，领先其主要挑战者、参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗两个百分点，Datafolha民调显示。

周四公布的民调结果显示，在模拟的第二轮投票中，卢拉将获得47%的选票，博尔索纳罗将获得45%。而上周Datafolha的民调则显示，卢拉以46%对44%领先博尔索纳罗。

由于该结果在民意调查的2个百分点的误差范围内，因此也属于技术性平局。

在第一轮投票中，卢拉以 40% 的得票率领先，其次是博索纳罗（36%）、奥古斯托·库里（5%）、罗纳尔多·卡亚多（4%）和雷南·桑托斯（3%）。

之前的民调显示，左翼总统的支持率为 39%，右翼参议员的支持率为 36%。

参议员博尔索纳罗是前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的长子，雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗因试图推翻他在 2022 年总统选举中败给卢拉的选举结果而被判处 27 年监禁。

卢拉正在寻求第四个非连续的巴西总统任期。

如果在第一轮投票中没有候选人获得超过 50% 的有效选票，则得票最高的两名候选人将进入第二轮投票。

Datafolha 在 9 月 22 日至 23 日期间对 2002 人进行了调查。

本周早些时候，另外两项民意调查也显示了类似的结果。

Quaest 周一公布的民调显示，在可能的第二轮投票中，博索纳罗的支持率为 42%，而卢拉的支持率为 41%。

与此同时，BTG Pactual/Nexus 的一项民意调查显示，在可能的第二轮投票中，卢拉的支持率为 46%，而博尔索纳罗的支持率为 45%。