Why the 2026 election could be the worst midterm for the GOP this century

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The Republican Party’s two worst midterm elections in the 21st Century were in 2006 and 2018. In the former, an unpopular Middle Eastern war cost George W. Bush dearly. In 2018, voters balked at the upending of historic norms and chaotic style of a new president named Donald Trump.

The 2026 midterm election is now looking like it could be even worse for the GOP – by several metrics.

But other indicators haven’t yet broken as overwhelmingly against Republicans.

Let’s break it down.

The president’s continued decline has now made him clearly a more unpopular president than he was in 2018 and Bush was in 2006 – at least on a national scale.

The new CNN poll this week showed Trump 34 points underwater among US adults, while the CNN Poll of Polls – aggregating other pollsters – shows him 29 points underwater .

Back in 2018 around this point, Trump was generally between 13 and 15 points underwater .

And back in 2006, the bottom hadn’t yet fallen out for Bush. He was 15 points underwater in a late September 2026 CNN poll, while Gallup data around that time showed him between 7 and 22 points underwater .

So all told, Trump is about twice as far underwater as the GOP president was in both of those midterms.

Indeed, data journalist G. Elliott Morris notes Trump appears to be the most unpopular president on the eve of a midterm in modern history .

Bear in mind this is national polling: the balance of power in the House and Senate will ultimately be decided by votes in particular states and districts, some of which have been gerrymandered such that they’re insulated from broad national trends. But with Trump telling GOP voters explicitly to act as if he is on the ballot, it’s fair to project that his unpopularity could spell trouble for his party this November.

Any campaign operative worth their salt will tell you the economy is often voters’ overriding concern.

That’s certainly the case in 2026, and it’s especially bad for Trump.

Trump’s economic approval rating in the new CNN poll was just 27%, with a whopping 73% disapproving. That’s minus-46.

Back in 2018, his economic approval rating was generally around 50% – and was usually in positive territory.

In 2006, Bush wasn’t in good shape on the economy. But his net approval was between minus-18 and minus-25 – significantly better than Trump’s minus-46 is today.

The economy is also just a significantly larger issue this year.

Large majorities of Americans viewed the economy as at least “somewhat good” in 2018 (69%) and 2006 (59%), according to CNN polling. But that number today is just 28%. Other economic indicators are hovering around all-time lows , as CNN’s Alicia Wallace reports.

And even worse for Trump, voters are emphasizing the issue significantly more. While 44% said the economy was “extremely important” to their vote in 2018 and 32% said the same in 2006, today it’s up to 68%.

Of course, the economy wasn’t the main reason the GOP lost big in 2006. That drubbing came after the Iraq war and some high-profile GOP scandals.

Well, today the Iran war is more unpopular than Iraq was back then.

The new CNN poll shows Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war by 47 points and say the war wasn’t worth it by 52 points.

Back in 2006, both Bush’s approval on the war and Americans support for the war were about 30 points underwater at their worst.

CNN’s Harry Enten also found that Trump’s net approval rating on foreign affairs (minus-42) is worse than any president since at least Ronald Reagan .

There is a real question whether Iran is as big an issue as Iraq was, given that unlike in Iraq, there aren’t boots on the ground, and we haven’t seen large numbers of US troops deaths. The main issue people complain about today is high domestic gas prices.

But similar numbers called the wars “extremely important” to their vote in 2006 (46%) and today (48%).

Another key finding in the CNN poll is that 44% of registered voters say their vote is meant to send a message of opposition to Trump, compared to 19% who said it would send a message of support.

That’s worse than in both 2006 and 2018.

In 2018, it was 38% sending a message of opposition, to 25% sending a message of support.

And in 2006, the numbers were 36% and 15% – a 21-point split, compared to a 25-point split today.

These numbers could matter especially as Trump and his advisers lean into the idea that they can turn out GOP voters. That might be true, but his presence also risks turning out the motivated opposition.

With all of that said, there is one very important measurement that hasn’t tipped towards Democrats as much as they’d like – at least not yet.

And that’s the generic ballot.

This is the oft-cited measure that asks poll respondents whether they’d pick a generic Democrat or a generic Republican for Congress.

Democrats lead on this by eight points in the most recent CNN poll. That’s compared to between 9 and 12 points around this juncture in 2018 and between 13 and 18 points in 2006.

So given all of Trump’s polling woes, why haven’t Democrats taken a bigger lead?

One possible reason is their brand is still poor.

The July CNN poll showed just 30% of Americans had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party. That is it’s worst number ahead of a midterm since at least 1994, and despite Trump’s problems, it’s no better than the GOP’s 31% favorable rating.

By contrast, Democrats had a slightly better image than Republicans did in 2018 (46% favorable for Democrats to 40% favorable for Republicans), and the gap was significantly larger in 2006 (56% to 44%).

There are some signs that Democrats are expanding their generic ballot lead right now, and many of the undecided voters appear to be quite gettable for them .

For now, every other major measure appears to be very bad for Trump and the GOP. So it’s worth watching to see whether this one follows suit.

比尔·普利亚诺/盖蒂图片社

共和党在21世纪遭遇的两次最糟糕的中期选举分别是2006年和2018年。2006年，一场不得人心的中东战争让乔治·W·布什付出了惨重的代价。2018年，选民们对唐纳德·特朗普这位新总统颠覆历史惯例和混乱的执政风格感到不满。

从多项指标来看，2026 年中期选举对共和党来说可能会更加糟糕。

但其他指标尚未出现对共和党人一边倒的趋势。

让我们来详细分析一下。

总统支持率的持续下滑，使他明显比 2018 年和 2006 年的布什总统更加不受欢迎——至少在全国范围内是如此。

本周 CNN 最新民调显示，特朗普在美国成年人中的支持率落后 34 个百分点，而 CNN 综合民调结果显示，他的支持率落后 29 个百分点。

2018 年这个时候，特朗普的支持率通常低于对手 13 到 15 个百分点。

而早在2006年，布什的支持率还没有跌到谷底。在2026年9月下旬CNN的民调中，他的支持率落后15个百分点，而盖洛普同期的民调数据显示，他的支持率落后7到22个百分点。

总而言之，特朗普目前的处境比共和党总统在两次中期选举中的处境糟糕两倍左右。

事实上，数据记者 G·埃利奥特·莫里斯指出，特朗普似乎是现代史上中期选举前夕最不受欢迎的总统。

请记住，这是全国民调：众议院和参议院的权力平衡最终将由特定州和选区的投票决定，而其中一些选区经过不公正的选区划分，使其与全国大趋势脱节。但鉴于特朗普明确告诉共和党选民要像他本人也在选票上一样投票，可以合理预测，他目前的低支持率可能会在今年11月给他的政党带来麻烦。

任何称职的竞选工作人员都会告诉你，经济往往是选民最关心的问题。

2026年肯定如此，这对特朗普来说尤其不利。

根据CNN最新民调，特朗普的经济支持率仅为27%，而反对率高达73%，即负46个百分点。

2018 年，他的经济支持率通常在 50% 左右，而且通常为正值。

2006年，布什在经济方面表现不佳。但他的净支持率在-18%到-25%之间——远好于特朗普如今的-46%。

今年经济问题也明显更加突出。

根据CNN的民调显示，2018年（69%）和2006年（59%），绝大多数美国人认为经济状况至少“还算不错”。但如今，这一比例仅为28%。正如CNN记者艾丽西亚·华莱士报道的那样，其他经济指标也徘徊在历史低位附近。

对特朗普来说更糟糕的是，选民们对经济问题的重视程度显著提高。2018年，44%的选民表示经济对他们的投票“极其重要”，2006年这一比例为32%，而如今这一比例已上升至68%。

当然，经济并不是共和党在2006年惨败的主要原因。那场惨败发生在伊拉克战争和一些备受瞩目的共和党丑闻之后。

如今，伊朗战争比当年的伊拉克战争更不受欢迎。

CNN最新民调显示，美国民众对特朗普处理战争的方式表示不满，反对率高达47个百分点；认为这场战争不值得的反对率也高达52个百分点。

早在 2006 年，布什对战争的支持率和美国民众对战争的支持率都跌至谷底，比支持率低了大约 30 个百分点。

CNN 的哈里·恩滕还发现，特朗普在外交事务上的净支持率（-42）比至少自罗纳德·里根以来的任何一位总统都要差。

伊朗是否像伊拉克那样是个大问题，确实值得商榷，因为与伊拉克不同，伊朗没有美军地面部队，而且我们也没有看到大量美军士兵阵亡。如今人们抱怨的主要问题是国内汽油价格高昂。

但同样比例的人认为战争对他们在 2006 年（46%）和今天（48%）的投票“极其重要”。

CNN民调的另一项重要发现是，44%的注册选民表示，他们的投票是为了表达对特朗普的反对意见，而只有19%的注册选民表示，他们的投票是为了表达支持意见。

这比 2006 年和 2018 年的情况都要糟糕。

2018 年，38% 的人表示反对，25% 的人表示支持。

2006 年，这两个数字分别是 36% 和 15%——相差 21 个百分点，而如今相差 25 个百分点。

这些数字可能至关重要，尤其是在特朗普及其顾问们坚信他们能够动员共和党选民的情况下。这或许不假，但他的出现也可能促使那些积极参与投票的反对派选民也加入进来。

尽管如此，有一项非常重要的指标还没有像民主党人希望的那样向他们倾斜——至少目前还没有。

这就是普通选票。

这是一项经常被引用的指标，它询问民意调查受访者，他们会选择一位普通的民主党人还是一位普通的共和党人进入国会。

根据CNN最近的民调，民主党在这方面领先8个百分点。相比之下，2018年同期民主党领先9到12个百分点，2006年同期民主党领先13到18个百分点。

鉴于特朗普的民调支持率一直不佳，为什么民主党人没有取得更大的领先优势？

其中一个可能的原因是他们的品牌形象仍然很差。

7月份CNN的民调显示，仅有30%的美国人对民主党持好感。这是自1994年以来中期选举前民主党支持率的最低值，尽管特朗普面临诸多问题，但这一数据并不比共和党31%的支持率好多少。

相比之下，2018 年民主党的形象略好于共和党（46% 的人对民主党有好感，40% 的人对共和党有好感），而 2006 年的差距则明显更大（56% 对 44%）。

有迹象表明，民主党目前正在扩大其在普选中的领先优势，而且许多尚未决定投票意向的选民似乎很容易被他们争取到。

目前来看，其他所有主要措施似乎都对特朗普和共和党非常不利。因此，值得关注这项措施是否也会如此。