US court rules against Kalshi, says states can regulate prediction markets

US appeals courts have varied on the regulation of prediction markets, opening the door to US Supreme Court debate.

A laptop screen displays trades on the Kalshi website on April 16, 2026 [Jenny Kane/AP]

A United States appeals court has found that states can regulate prediction markets, ruling against a bid by the company Kalshi to exempt so-called event contracts from state gambling laws.

The Friday ruling by the 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati is the latest in an unfolding debate about oversight of prediction markets, whose explosive growth has prompted ethical and regulatory questions.

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The decision also deepens a divide among federal appeals courts regarding the authority of state and federal regulators to regulate such markets, opening up the possibility that the US Supreme Court could weigh in on the matter.

Two other federal appeals courts have previously addressed questions of whether prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws. The 9th Circuit in San Francisco ruled last month that Kalshi’s event contracts are subject to Nevada’s gambling laws, while the 3rd Circuit in Philadelphia said in April that Kalshi’s contracts are not subject to New Jersey’s.

In Friday’s ruling, Judge Julia Smith Gibbons wrote for the unanimous three-judge panel that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate event contracts under their gambling laws.

Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the US. They allow users to place bets on everything from sporting events and presidential elections to cultural developments and the prospects of a deal between the US and Iran on the latter’s nuclear programme.

Experts have raised concerns about the proliferation of prediction markets and betting apps, especially for young people.

The state of New York filed a lawsuit against the prediction market Polymarket on Thursday, arguing that it is operating as an unlicensed gambling operation. The company responded by stating that it would “fight for its users”.

“By running an unlicensed gambling operation, Polymarket has done more than just knowingly violate state law, they have put New Yorkers at risk, especially those underage who are most vulnerable to problem gaming,” Governor Kathy Hochul said in a statement.

美国各上诉法院对预测市场的监管意见不一，这为美国最高法院的辩论打开了大门。

2026年4月16日，笔记本电脑屏幕上显示着Kalshi网站上的交易信息。[Jenny Kane/AP]

美国一家上诉法院裁定，各州可以监管预测市场，驳回了 Kalshi 公司提出的将所谓的“事件合同”排除在州赌博法之外的请求。

美国第六巡回上诉法院（位于辛辛那提）周五的裁决，是关于预测市场监管的辩论的最新进展。预测市场的爆炸式增长引发了道德和监管方面的问题。

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该决定也加深了联邦上诉法院之间关于州和联邦监管机构监管此类市场的权限的分歧，使得美国最高法院有可能介入此事。

此前，另有两家联邦上诉法院曾审理过预测市场是否受州赌博法管辖的问题。旧金山第九巡回上诉法院上个月裁定，卡尔希的赛事合同受内华达州赌博法管辖；而费城第三巡回上诉法院则在四月份表示，卡尔希的合同不受新泽西州赌博法管辖。

在周五的裁决中，法官朱莉娅·史密斯·吉本斯代表三名法官组成的一致小组写道，俄亥俄州和田纳西州可以根据其赌博法对赛事合同进行监管。

预测市场在美国越来越受欢迎。用户可以对各种事物进行投注，从体育赛事和总统选举到文化发展，再到美国和伊朗就后者核计划达成协议的前景。

专家们对预测市场和博彩应用程序的激增表示担忧，尤其是针对年轻人的此类行为。

纽约州周四对预测市场平台Polymarket提起诉讼，指控其非法经营赌博活动。该公司回应称，将“为用户争取权益”。

“Polymarket 经营无证赌博业务，不仅明知故犯地违反了州法律，而且还让纽约人面临风险，尤其是那些最容易受到赌博成瘾影响的未成年人，”州长凯西·霍楚尔在一份声明中说。