Poland boosts air defence after ‘Russian provocations’ amid Ukraine war

Alleged incursions put NATO nations on alert as Ukraine launches strikes on Russia during parliamentary voting.

A firefighter works at the site of a business centre that was struck by a Russian drone in Kyiv, Ukraine, on September 23, 2026 [Thomas Peter/Reuters]

Poland has heightened its air defence posture, following repeated alleged incursions into its airspace in recent weeks.

The Polish Air Force launched preventive air patrols on September 17 aimed at securing the eastern part of Polish airspace.

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Warsaw officially blamed Russia, but Moscow has denied allegations that it is targeting NATO nations.

“Following the latest Russian provocations and acts of aggression, I have made the decision to expand the protection of our airspace. We are increasing the activity of our air forces, including F-16 aircraft and helicopters,” wrote Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz on social media.

Those patrols came with a political warning.

“I want to present to the public the most probable scenario for the next few months, because it is a scenario that assumes serious events and requires focus, seriousness and the mental readiness to pass difficult exams,” said Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

“According to intelligence, the Russian plan also includes hybrid drone and missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland,” he said in parliament. “These possibilities have been mentioned for a long time, and today the information is very consistent and, unfortunately, convincing.”

He said the aim of suspected Russian incursions was “to weaken the motivation of NATO countries to apply NATO regulations in the event of aggression against any member state”.

Days later, on September 23, Poland said an Mi-8 helicopter entered Polish airspace from Kaliningrad for 42 seconds.

“Russia is once again testing the readiness of our air defence,” said Poland’s Armed Forces Operational Command.

The most serious Polish claim of a violation was by a Russian Su-24 reconnaissance aircraft in the Baltic Sea in February 2025, an incident Russia reportedly acknowledged.

During the past week, suspected Russian drones were shot down twice in Moldova, and once in Romania on September 24, observers said.

Poland and Romania are two NATO members immediately bordering Ukraine through which military supplies and Western officials have reached Ukraine. Hungary is also a NATO member bordering Ukraine, but has not allowed military supplies through its territory.

The latest alleged airspace violations have again raised the spectre of an open Russian attack on NATO territory, a prospect European intelligence chiefs have been warning about since January 2024.

Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka this week told The Guardian that a Russian attack, which “could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, [or] a massive influence campaign”, might come in a matter of “months, not years”.

Russian information, and reality

During the past week, Russian officials made claims to have captured towns in the eastern Ukrainian Donetsk region.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said on September 19 Moscow’s forces had seized 5,300 square kilometres (2,050 square miles) and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine since the start of 2026.

Moscow launched drone strikes against Ukrainian cities every night of the week, and combined them with missiles on September 19, 22 and 24, killing at least eight people and injuring dozens. One of those deaths was a cleric at a monastery in Kherson. Two were killed when Russia launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Kyiv, including a maternity clinic.

“Since the beginning of this year, Russia has used more than 2,100 missiles of various types against Ukraine. More than 950 of these were ballistic missiles,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the United Nations General Assembly. During the same period, Russia launched 63,000 drones into the country, he said.

“We need to slow it down before we move to the next stage,” he said. “Because next year, there is a real possibility that AI – not just humans – will begin to decide what happens on the battlefield.”

A wounded woman sits near a business centre hit by a Russian drone strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, on September 23, 2026 [Reuters]

According to the Institute for the Study of War, which assesses territorial changes using geolocated open sources, Russian claims of a serious advance are vastly overstated.

It estimates that Russia has captured a net 147.7sq km (57sq miles) in the first eight months of 2026, its worst performance of the war by far. Ukrainian forces had liberated at least 972.56sq km (375sq miles) from Russian occupation during the same period, it has found.

Those counteroffensives have come near Oleksandrivka, straddling the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, and around the town of Lyman in northern Donetsk.

The Lyman operation, codenamed Vivaldi, saw 50sq km (20sq miles) liberated in a second phase of the operation in recent days, Ukrainian officials said.

“Artillery and drone systems targeted enemy command posts, communication hubs, logistics, crossings, and reserves. Air defence and electronic warfare systems created a protective shield over the area of combat operations. The blinded enemy was unable to decipher the plan of the operation, and our units consolidated on the liberated lines,” said an announcement from the Third Army Corps commanded by Andriy Biletsky.

Russia’s vote, a referendum on the war

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party triumphed in the Duma elections, raising its majority from 315 seats in the 450-seat body to 355.

Russian officials prejudged the result as a positive referendum on Putin’s war in Ukraine.

“I have no doubt that the result will confirm the commitment of all our parties and voters to the course the president has set both domestically and for our foreign policy,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters ahead of the election.

“We will continue to ensure support for our president’s course and bring victory over the enemies of the Fatherland closer,” deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Russian social media.

Ukraine launched its biggest combined air strike of the war on the final day of Russia’s parliamentary elections.

Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on September 20 that Russian air defences downed more than 1,600 Ukrainian drones in the previous 24 hours, at least 450 of them heading for Moscow.

Some got through, putting Moscow’s oil refinery out of action for the second time this year. Videos posted online showed several fires, suggesting a number of successful strikes.

During the past week, Ukraine also struck the Kuybyshev refinery in Samara and the Bashneft refinery in Bashkortostan.

据称，乌克兰在俄罗斯议会投票期间对俄罗斯发动袭击，这令北约国家进入戒备状态。

2026年9月23日，一名消防员在乌克兰基辅一处被俄罗斯无人机袭击的商业中心现场进行救援工作。[Thomas Peter/路透社]

最近几周，波兰领空屡遭入侵，波兰已加强了防空态势。

波兰空军于9月17日展开预防性空中巡逻，旨在确保波兰东部空域的安全。

泽连斯基称乌克兰向韩国送去了两名朝鲜战俘（共四项，此为第一项）

俄罗斯在乌克兰发动袭击，造成8人死亡，美国加大外交力度（共4起，此为第2起）

列表 3/4：俄罗斯在泽连斯基于联合国大会发表讲话期间袭击乌克兰

美国寻求重启俄乌停火谈判，此前基辅发生冲突，造成7人死亡（共4条记录中的第4条）

华沙方面正式指责俄罗斯，但莫斯科否认了其针对北约国家的指控。

波兰国防部长瓦迪斯瓦夫·科西尼亚克-卡梅什在社交媒体上写道：“鉴于俄罗斯最近的挑衅和侵略行为，我决定扩大我国领空保护范围。我们将增加空军的行动，包括F-16战斗机和直升机。”

这些巡逻行动带有政治警告的意味。

“我想向公众介绍未来几个月最有可能出现的情况，因为这种情况假设会发生严重事件，需要集中精力、认真对待，并做好心理准备来通过艰难的考验，”总理唐纳德·图斯克说。

他在议会表示：“根据情报，俄罗斯的计划还包括对支持乌克兰的国家，包括波兰，发动无人机和导弹混合打击。这些可能性由来已久，而如今的信息非常一致，而且不幸的是，令人信服。”

他表示，疑似俄罗斯入侵的目的是“削弱北约国家在任何成员国遭受侵略时执行北约规定的积极性”。

几天后，9 月 23 日，波兰方面表示，一架米-8 直升机从加里宁格勒进入波兰领空 42 秒。

波兰武装部队作战司令部表示：“俄罗斯再次考验我方防空系统的战备能力。”

波兰提出的最严重的侵犯人权指控是 2025 年 2 月在波罗的海发生的俄罗斯 Su-24 侦察机事件，据报道俄罗斯承认了该事件。

观察人士称，过去一周，疑似俄罗斯无人机在摩尔多瓦被击落两次，9月24日在罗马尼亚被击落一次。

波兰和罗马尼亚是与乌克兰直接接壤的两个北约成员国，西方官员和军事物资正是经由两国进入乌克兰的。匈牙利也是与乌克兰接壤的北约成员国，但它不允许军事物资通过其领土。

最新一起涉嫌侵犯领空事件再次引发了人们对俄罗斯公开攻击北约领土的担忧，欧洲情报部门负责人自 2024 年 1 月以来就一直在警告这种可能性。

捷克情报局长米哈尔·寇德尔卡本周告诉《卫报》，俄罗斯的攻击“可能涉及有限的入侵、伪旗挑衅[或]大规模的影响行动”，可能会在“几个月内，而不是几年内”发生。

俄罗斯的信息和现实

过去一周，俄罗斯官员声称已经占领了乌克兰东部顿涅茨克地区的城镇。

俄罗斯国防部9月19日表示，自2026年初以来，莫斯科的军队已在乌克兰占领了5300平方公里（2050平方英里）的土地和220多个定居点。

莫斯科每周每晚都对乌克兰城市发动无人机袭击，并在9月19日、22日和24日将无人机袭击与导弹袭击相结合，造成至少8人死亡，数十人受伤。其中一名死者是赫尔松一座修道院的神职人员。俄罗斯向基辅发射了三波弹道导弹，造成两人死亡，其中包括一家妇产诊所。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基在联合国大会上表示：“自今年年初以来，俄罗斯已向乌克兰发射了2100多枚各类导弹，其中超过950枚是弹道导弹。”他还指出，同期俄罗斯向乌克兰境内发射了6.3万架无人机。

他说：“我们需要放慢速度，然后再进入下一阶段。因为明年，人工智能——而不仅仅是人类——很有可能开始决定战场上的局势。”

2026年9月23日，一名受伤的女子坐在乌克兰基辅一家被俄罗斯无人机袭击的商业中心附近。[路透社]

根据利用地理定位开放资源评估领土变化的战争研究所的说法，俄罗斯声称取得重大进展的说法大大夸大了。

报告估计，俄罗斯在2026年前八个月净占领了147.7平方公里（57平方英里）的土地，这是迄今为止战争中最糟糕的战绩。报告还发现，同期乌克兰军队从俄罗斯占领下解放了至少972.56平方公里（375平方英里）的土地。

这些反攻已经推进到顿涅茨克-扎波罗热边境附近的奥列克桑德里夫卡，以及顿涅茨克北部的莱曼镇附近。

乌克兰官员表示，代号为“维瓦尔第”的莱曼行动在最近几天的第二阶段解放了50平方公里（20平方英里）的区域。

“炮兵和无人机系统对敌方指挥所、通信枢纽、后勤基地、渡口和预备队进行了打击。防空和电子战系统在作战区域上方构筑了一道保护屏障。被蒙蔽的敌人无法破译作战计划，我方部队在解放的战线上巩固了阵地。”安德烈·比列茨基指挥的第三军在一份声明中表示。

俄罗斯的投票，一场关于战争的全民公投

与此同时，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京领导的统一俄罗斯党在国家杜马选举中取得胜利，在450个席位中，其多数席位从315个增加到355个。

俄罗斯官员预先判断选举结果是对普京在乌克兰发动的战争的一次积极公投。

“我毫不怀疑，选举结果将证实我们所有政党和选民对总统在国内和外交政策方面所制定路线的承诺，”外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫在选举前对记者说。

“我们将继续确保支持总统的路线，并加快战胜祖国敌人的步伐，”俄罗斯安全会议副主席德米特里·梅德韦杰夫在俄罗斯社交媒体上写道。

在俄罗斯议会选举的最后一天，乌克兰发动了战争以来规模最大的联合空袭。

莫斯科市长谢尔盖·索比亚宁9月20日表示，俄罗斯防空部队在过去24小时内击落了1600多架乌克兰无人机，其中至少450架正飞往莫斯科。

部分炸弹成功击中目标，导致莫斯科炼油厂今年第二次停产。网上发布的视频显示多处起火，表明有多起袭击成功。

过去一周，乌克兰还袭击了萨马拉的库伊比雪夫炼油厂和巴什科尔托斯坦的巴什石油炼油厂。