Republicans fear two key Senate races are slipping from their grasp

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Some Republicans are growing worried that two key Senate races once considered critical to holding their majority are slipping from their grasp.

In more than a dozen interviews with campaign officials, senators and operatives, there is recognition that North Carolina and Georgia are looking less competitive than the party once anticipated and that decisions need to be made soon about whether to keep investing, even as party officials insist they are not walking away from their candidates there.

Republican senators like North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, said it was time for the party to make some tough decisions about spending.

“You spend the money where we get Republicans elected,” Tillis said. “I want them to do that now. I mean you don’t spend the money just because you want to help somebody.”

Both Rep. Mike Collins, who is trying to unseat Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, and Michael Whatley, who is running against former Gov. Roy Cooper to replace Tillis, are behind in polls and facing questions about their campaigns. A GOP loss in North Carolina – a state President Donald Trump won three times – would give Democrats one of the four flips they need to retake the Senate.

One GOP super PAC, Old North Action, trimmed its ad reservations in North Carolina by about a third last week, one of the clearest signs yet that the party may be losing confidence in the race. Whatley said this week he feels “very comfortable” he will have the money he needs.

“I don’t know what the path is for Michael. I mean, I’ll just say that. Unless Cooper just completely stumbles,” a North Carolina Republican strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss the political environment, told CNN.

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Collins’ campaign recently made clear to allies it needs more help in Georgia. In a memo posted on his website and dated Monday, the campaign argued that 1 in 10 voters are “still up for grabs” for Collins. The campaign said they are mostly voters who supported Trump in 2024 and are backing Rick Jackson for governor, who is in a closer race with Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms.

“They should be voting for Mike Collins, and they are not yet, mainly because they do not have a firm opinion of him,” the memo says, suggesting stepped-up ad spending could change that.

But the party and its allies are having to spend big to shore up even redder seats, including an investment of well over $100 million in Texas.

“We are erecting a big wall around all of our candidates,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. “There are headwinds we are facing in all the races around the country.”

Party leaders are sending signals that they’re still committed to Georgia and North Carolina in particular. Thune headlined a fundraiser for Collins on Thursday night in Atlanta along with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. And Trump and Vice President JD Vance each visited North Carolina recently as part of their first stops for candidates following the GOP midterm convention.

A spokesman for the NRSC, Nick Puglia, criticized Ossoff and Cooper in a statement for this story and promised Republicans “will continue working to expose their far-left records to permanently retire them.”

NRSC Chairman Sen. Tim Scott pushed back Thursday against any suggestion the committee was deprioritizing Georgia and North Carolina. “Hogwash!” Scott wrote on X .

His denial came after a closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans where he discussed the Senate map. An NRSC spokesperson said Scott spoke positively about Collins and Whatley, saying they were chipping away at their polling deficits.

Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

But confidence is waning in other corners of the GOP.

Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who hosted a fundraiser Monday for a group of Senate GOP candidates in other states, questioned the party’s decision to keep plowing money into races that may no longer be winnable.

“Here we are, what, 40 days out? And so I don’t think there is a lot that can be done,” Cornyn said. “I think it is going to be a matter of where the resources should be deployed.”

Cornyn’s fundraiser, which he headlined with former President George W. Bush, sent a clear message about his view of the map. The guest list included incumbents and nominees from Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire and Minnesota. Collins and Whatley were not there. Notably, Cornyn also excluded GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general who defeated him in a primary this year after getting a late Trump endorsement.

He said he focused his fundraiser on the other states “because I think the money will go a lot further in those places.”

Cornyn said he did not think there was anything Whatley could do to turn around his campaign at this point.

“I think if Thom Tillis was on the ticket, things would look a lot different, but the president basically went after him, and now we’ve got somebody who is not as well-known and he’s struggling,” Cornyn said.

Whatley painted an optimistic picture of his campaign during a recent radio interview where he was asked about outside funding.

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“We certainly do need the groups, you know, like the Republican Party, to come in and be supportive … because the Democratic Party is going to send hundreds of millions of dollars into North Carolina,” Whatley said on Thursday. “But I feel very comfortable we are going to have the resources that we need over the next 42 days to prosecute this campaign and win.”

Still, when speaking with CNN, several GOP operatives in North Carolina questioned Whatley’s campaign strategy in this current environment, noting ads and campaign events supporting the former North Carolina GOP and RNC chair have predominately focused on crime. Meanwhile Cooper, a two-term governor who has never lost a race, has centered his campaign around affordability and economic issues.

“I thought the crime stuff would be effective, that some of the bad stuff he did in office would come back to bite Cooper. It should be a really good message. But, for whatever reason, it’s not landing yet,” said the GOP strategist. “But they aren’t doing anything else. Even when the president came, he mostly harped on crime. It’s not resonating, we should be doing something else.”

Outside of Old North Action, Republican groups have mostly maintained their ad reservations for the final weeks of the races and the NRSC, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, has already spent $7.9 million in coordinated spending in North Carolina and $3.6 million in Georgia through the end of August.

The optimistic case for Republicans is that North Carolina has a reputation for deciding late. Trump focused heavily on the state in the closing days of the 2024 election, raising speculation that he was concerned about it. He went on to win by 3 percentage points.

“These polls look really rough,” the North Carolina GOP strategist said of this year’s Senate race. “The good thing is, Republicans always outperform polls. But, never to this degree.”

Cooper’s campaign, meanwhile, has long urged Democrats against growing complacent in the state. They were especially outspoken after a Supreme Court ruling lifted limits on coordinated spending with political parties, giving the Republican National Committee – which Whatley previously led – more flexibility to spend in races.

“A Democrat has not won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades,” Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen told CNN in a statement. “Whatley’s elite DC connections mean Republicans are going to spend whatever it takes to keep this seat.”

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In Georgia, Collins is confronting a stronger-than-expected incumbent in Ossoff, who is already generating buzz as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. (Ossoff has said he has “zero interest.”)

Thune told CNN, shortly before his trip to Atlanta, that he still believes Collins can win.

“I think part of it is, it’s a big state, an expensive state and … we’ve got a House member running, who it just takes a lot of money to get known,” Thune said. “I think once you get the name ID up there, you can litigate the contrast.”

“It’s like every place else,” Thune added. “It’s a resource issue.”

Thune’s fundraiser for Collins, which also featured Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, brought in over $400,000 for the candidate, according to a source familiar with the event.

Like Cooper, Ossoff is also wary of Democrats declaring victory too soon. He told CNN earlier this week that he is “taking nothing for granted.”

“We’re still seeing significant Republican super PAC activity,” Ossoff told CNN. “As for the national groups and whatnot, again, every day I run like I am behind.”

CNN’s Manu Raju contributed to this report.

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一些共和党人越来越担心，曾经被认为对保住参议院多数席位至关重要的两场关键选举正在从他们手中溜走。

在对十几位竞选官员、参议员和工作人员的采访中，人们普遍认为北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州的竞争程度不如该党此前预期的那样激烈，需要尽快决定是否继续投资，尽管该党官员坚称他们不会放弃在那里的候选人。

北卡罗来纳州参议员汤姆·蒂利斯等共和党参议员表示，共和党是时候就支出问题做出一些艰难的决定了。

“把钱花在能帮助共和党人当选的地方，”蒂利斯说。“我希望他们现在就这么做。我的意思是，你不能仅仅因为想帮助某人就花钱。”

试图挑战佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫的众议员迈克·柯林斯，以及挑战前州长罗伊·库珀、力图接替蒂利斯的迈克尔·沃特利，两人目前民调均落后，竞选活动也面临质疑。如果共和党在北卡罗来纳州——特朗普总统曾三次赢得该州——失利，民主党将获得夺回参议院控制权所需的四个席位中的一个。

共和党超级政治行动委员会“老北行动”（Old North Action）上周将其在北卡罗来纳州的广告投放量削减了约三分之一，这是迄今为止最明显的迹象之一，表明该党可能正在失去对这场选举的信心。沃特利本周表示，他“非常有信心”能够筹集到所需的资金。

“我不知道迈克尔的未来会怎样。我的意思是，我就说这么多吧。除非库珀彻底失策，”一位北卡罗来纳州共和党策略师在匿名的情况下告诉 CNN，以便畅所欲言地讨论当前的政治环境。

贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社

科林斯的竞选团队近日向盟友明确表示，他们需要在佐治亚州获得更多支持。在周一发布于其网站的一份备忘录中，竞选团队指出，十分之一的选民“尚未决定是否支持”科林斯。竞选团队表示，这些选民大多是2024年支持特朗普的选民，目前他们支持里克·杰克逊竞选州长，而杰克逊正与民主党候选人凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯展开激烈角逐。

备忘录称：“他们应该投票给迈克·柯林斯，但他们还没有这样做，主要是因为他们对他还没有明确的看法。”备忘录暗示，加大广告投入可能会改变这种情况。

但该党及其盟友不得不投入巨资巩固一些更倾向共和党的席位，其中包括在德克萨斯州投资超过 1 亿美元。

“我们正在为所有候选人筑起一道高墙，”参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩说。“我们在全国各地的竞选中都面临着逆风。”

党内领导人释放出的信号表明，他们仍然致力于佐治亚州，尤其是北卡罗来纳州。周四晚，图恩与佐治亚州州长布莱恩·坎普在亚特兰大共同出席了为科林斯举办的筹款活动。此外，特朗普和副总统万斯最近也分别访问了北卡罗来纳州，这是他们在共和党中期选举大会后为候选人助选的首批行程之一。

全国共和党参议员委员会发言人尼克·普利亚就此事发表声明，批评了奥索夫和库珀，并承诺共和党人“将继续努力揭露他们的极左记录，以彻底让他们退休”。

全国共和党参议员委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特参议员周四驳斥了任何关于该委员会降低佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州优先级的说法。“胡说八道！”斯科特在X网站上写道。

在与参议院共和党人举行闭门会议讨论参议院选区划分方案后，斯科特否认了相关指控。全国共和党参议员委员会（NRSC）发言人表示，斯科特对柯林斯和沃特利给予了积极评价，称他们正在努力缩小民调差距。

伊丽莎白·弗兰茨/路透社

但共和党其他地区的信心正在减弱。

德克萨斯州参议员约翰·科宁周一为其他州的一群共和党参议员候选人举办了一场筹款活动，他质疑该党继续向可能已经无法赢得的竞选投入资金的决定。

“现在距离比赛还有40天，所以我觉得能做的并不多，”科宁说。“我认为关键在于如何部署资源。”

科宁与前总统乔治·W·布什共同主持的筹款活动，清晰地传达了他对政治版图的看法。出席活动的嘉宾包括来自阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州、密歇根州、爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州和明尼苏达州的现任议员和候选人。科林斯和沃特利并未到场。值得注意的是，科宁还将共和党参议员候选人、德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿排除在外。帕克斯顿在今年的党内初选中击败了科宁，此前他获得了特朗普的后期支持。

他说，他将筹款活动重点放在其他州，“因为我认为这些钱在那些地方能发挥更大的作用。”

科宁表示，他认为沃特利现在做什么都无法扭转他的竞选局面了。

科宁说：“我认为如果汤姆·蒂利斯是候选人，情况会大不相同，但总统基本上针对了他，现在我们有一个知名度不高、而且处境艰难的人。”

在最近的一次电台采访中，当被问及外部资金问题时，沃特利对他的竞选活动描绘了一幅乐观的图景。

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“我们当然需要像共和党这样的团体加入进来，给予支持……因为民主党将向北卡罗来纳州投入数亿美元，”沃特利周四表示。“但我非常有信心，在接下来的42天里，我们将拥有足够的资源来推进这场竞选并赢得胜利。”

不过，在接受CNN采访时，几位北卡罗来纳州的共和党人士对沃特利在当前形势下的竞选策略提出了质疑，他们指出，支持这位前北卡罗来纳州共和党主席和共和党全国委员会主席的广告和竞选活动主要集中在犯罪问题上。与此同时，从未输过选举的两届州长库珀则将竞选重心放在了住房负担能力和经济问题上。

“我原以为打击犯罪会很有效，库珀在任期间的一些坏事会让他付出代价。这应该会是一个很好的宣传点。但不知何故，目前还没有奏效，”这位共和党策略师说道。“但他们也没有采取其他措施。即使总统上任时，他也主要强调犯罪问题。但这并没有引起共鸣，我们应该采取其他措施。”

除了“老北行动”之外，共和党团体大多维持了竞选最后几周的广告预订，而参议院共和党竞选机构全国共和党参议员委员会（NRSC）截至8月底已在北卡罗来纳州花费了790万美元的协调支出，在佐治亚州花费了360万美元。

对共和党人来说，乐观的理由是北卡罗来纳州历来以临近选举结果才决出胜负而闻名。特朗普在2024年大选的最后几天将大量精力放在了该州，这引发了人们对他是否对该州感到担忧的猜测。最终，他以3个百分点的优势赢得了北卡罗来纳州。

“这些民调结果看起来非常糟糕，”北卡罗来纳州共和党策略师在谈到今年的参议院选举时说道。“好消息是，共和党人的实际表现总是优于民调结果。但是，从未像这次这样糟糕到如此程度。”

与此同时，库珀的竞选团队长期以来一直敦促民主党人不要在该州变得自满。最高法院的一项裁决取消了对与政党协调支出的限制，赋予了共和党全国委员会（沃特利曾担任该委员会主席）在竞选活动中更大的支出灵活性，此后，他们的呼吁尤为强烈。

库珀竞选经理杰夫·艾伦在一份声明中告诉CNN：“近二十年来，民主党人从未在这里赢得过州级联邦公职。沃特利在华盛顿特区的精英人脉意味着共和党人将不惜一切代价保住这个席位。”

Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

在佐治亚州，柯林斯将面对一位比预期更强大的现任州长奥索夫，奥索夫已被视为2028年总统候选人的潜在人选。（奥索夫表示他“毫无兴趣”。）

在前往亚特兰大之前不久，图恩告诉 CNN，他仍然相信柯林斯能够获胜。

“我认为部分原因是，这是一个幅员辽阔、开支巨大的州，而且……我们有一位众议员正在竞选，要想提高知名度需要投入大量资金，”图恩说道。“我认为一旦知名度提升，就可以利用对比来展开辩论。”

“这跟其他地方一样，”图恩补充道，“这是资源问题。”

据一位熟悉此次活动的消息人士透露，图恩为科林斯举办的筹款活动，以及佐治亚州州长布莱恩·坎普的出席，为这位候选人筹集了超过 40 万美元。

和库珀一样，奥索夫也对民主党过早宣布胜利持谨慎态度。他本周早些时候告诉CNN，他“不会掉以轻心”。

奥索夫告诉CNN：“我们仍然看到共和党超级政治行动委员会的活动非常活跃。至于全国性团体等等，我每天都感觉自己落后于人。”

CNN的Manu Raju对本报道亦有贡献。