Chip-driven growth faces headwinds from weak domestic demand, high oil prices

Published Sep 27, 2026 3:35 pm KST

Q4 growth hinges on how quickly export recovery spreads to domestic economy

Container boxes are stacked at a port in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Sept. 6. Yonhap

Korea's economy is expected to maintain strong growth in the fourth quarter on the back of robust semiconductor exports, but weak domestic demand and rising oil prices are emerging as renewed risks, analysts said Sunday.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Korea to 3.7 percent from its June forecast of 2.6 percent, citing strong industrial production and export growth.

The latest projection, announced Wednesday, represents a 1.1 percentage-point increase, the largest upward revision among the group of 20 major economies.

On the same day, the Asian Development Bank also raised its growth forecast for Korea to 3.2 percent from its July projection of 2.6 percent, citing strong exports and corporate earnings amid the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

Strong export growth, driven largely by semiconductors, has been a key factor behind the positive outlook.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources, Korea's exports reached a record $98.25 billion in August, up 68.7 percent from a year earlier. Semiconductor exports surged 209 percent year-on-year to a record $46.65 billion. The increase was driven by stronger demand for advanced memory chips as global investment in AI data centers expands.

Analysts, however, expect the recovery in domestic demand to lag behind the export rebound, with elevated global oil prices stemming from geopolitical tensions posing upside risks to inflation and weighing on consumer spending.

Prices for gasoline and diesel fuel are displayed at a gas station in Seoul, Sept. 20. Yonhap

Brent crude has traded above $100 per barrel for much of this month amid persistent concerns over disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East. Higher oil prices, coupled with a weaker won, could add to inflationary pressures and weigh on household spending.

In its latest report, the OECD also raised its forecast for Korea’s consumer price inflation this year to 3.0 percent from 2.6 percent, reflecting a stronger growth outlook and higher projections for global energy prices.

Analysts say a key question for the fourth quarter is how quickly the export-led recovery spreads to the broader domestic economy. They noted that strong semiconductor demand has provided a powerful boost to exports, manufacturing activity and facility investment, but the momentum has so far had a limited impact on consumer spending, job creation and household incomes.

“Consumption is recovering relatively slowly due to high interest rates and high oil prices, while semiconductor-led exports and strong facility investment are expected to drive the economic recovery,” Ha Geon-hyung, a researcher at Shinhan Securities, said in a recent report. “The burden of tighter financial conditions is likely to fall more heavily on consumption than investment.”

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发布于2026年9月27日下午3:35（韩国标准时间）

第四季度经济增长取决于出口复苏向国内经济蔓延的速度。

9月6日，京畿道平泽市港口，集装箱堆放整齐。（韩联社）

分析人士周日表示，受强劲的半导体出口推动，韩国经济预计将在第四季度保持强劲增长，但国内需求疲软和油价上涨正成为新的风险。

经济合作与发展组织（OECD）最近将韩国2026年的经济增长预期从6月份预测的2.6%上调至3.7%，理由是工业生产和出口增长强劲。

周三公布的最新预测显示，经济增长率上调了 1.1 个百分点，是 20 个主要经济体中上调幅度最大的一次。

同一天，亚洲开发银行也将韩国的经济增长预期从7月份预测的2.6%上调至3.2%，理由是人工智能（AI）热潮推动了韩国出口和企业盈利的强劲增长。

半导体行业带动出口强劲增长，这是前景乐观的关键因素。

据韩国产业通商资源部统计，韩国8月份出口额达到创纪录的982.5亿美元，同比增长68.7%。其中，半导体出口额同比增长209%，达到创纪录的466.5亿美元。这一增长主要得益于全球人工智能数据中心投资的扩大，带动了对先进存储芯片的强劲需求。

然而，分析师预计国内需求复苏将落后于出口反弹，地缘政治紧张局势导致全球油价高企，给通胀带来上行风险，并抑制消费者支出。

9月20日，首尔一家加油站展示汽油和柴油价格。（韩联社）

本月大部分时间里，布伦特原油价格一直维持在每桶100美元以上，原因是市场持续担忧中东石油供应中断。油价上涨加上韩元走软，可能会加剧通胀压力，并抑制家庭支出。

经合组织在其最新报告中还将韩国今年的消费者价格通胀预期从 2.6% 上调至 3.0%，反映出更强劲的增长前景和更高的全球能源价格预期。

分析人士指出，第四季度的关键问题在于出口导向型经济复苏能否迅速惠及更广泛的国内经济。他们注意到，强劲的半导体需求极大地提振了出口、制造业活动和设施投资，但迄今为止，这股势头对消费支出、就业增长和家庭收入的影响有限。

新韩证券研究员河建亨（音译）在近期的一份报告中指出：“由于高利率和高油价，消费复苏相对缓慢，而半导体出口和强劲的设施投资预计将成为推动经济复苏的主要动力。金融环境收紧对消费的影响可能比对投资的影响更大。”

韩元兑美元汇率再次剧烈波动，逼近1400韩元大关

不断攀升的通胀压力使美联储再次加息成为可能。

经合组织将韩国2026年经济增长预期上调至3.7%。