The US wants to manage the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants to break it

The monthlong lull in fighting between Iran and the United States ended this week with a renewed exchange of fire, dragging the region back to a dangerous – and potentially unsustainable – military stalemate.

The US military struck Iran again Tuesday, prompting Tehran to attack Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait in defiance of a warning from President Donald Trump that any retaliation would see Iran “hit much harder.”

The exchanges were limited, unlike the fiercer attacks that took place over a month ago, which experts say signals an unwillingness from both parties to return to full-scale fighting.

“So far, both have largely concentrated their attacks on military rather than civilian or energy targets. And despite threats from senior Iranian officials, Tehran has not resumed attacks against Saudi Arabia or the UAE,” said Danny Citrinowicz, the former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence, in a post on X.

Nonetheless, the current situation is perilous, with room for miscalculation that risks pulling both sides back into all-out conflict.

U.S. Central Command/Reuters

“Neither side wants to return to full-scale war,” Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, told CNN’s Becky Anderson, adding that Iran’s disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the US’ economic pressure on the country are “increasingly becoming unsustainable” for both sides.

The US president has said that he doesn’t care to negotiate with Iran. “I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement,” Trump said, adding that he likes America’s position “now much better.”

But beyond the rhetoric, Americans are feeling the cost of the war amid widespread public disapproval for a conflict that reportedly had cost Washington some $40 billion as of July.

In Iran, the impact of the war has been significantly more severe. The US is squeezing an already crippled economy as it struggles to sell its oil. Iranian weapon stockpiles are also likely being depleted, and citizens are struggling to access basic goods – including food and medicine.

The Trump administration may believe it scored a victory in the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, the US military escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the waterway, marking a wartime high, according to two US officials familiar with the operations.

But that hasn’t remedied the wider situation. While global oil prices dipped slightly Thursday, they remain high.

The current US national average price for gas stands at $4.14 a gallon, compared to $3.19 a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association.

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Meanwhile, the amount of oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has plunged over recent months to its lowest level since 1983, as the Trump administration continues to deploy emergency oil to minimize impacts from the war.

On Thursday, US Vice President J.D. Vance could provide neither a timeline for the Iran war to end nor a date when gas prices might sink below pre-war levels, suggesting instead it was up to Iran to conclude the conflict.

On the military end, the US is burning through weapons stockpiles and deploying costly military assets. Last month, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN that the US military had exhausted nearly 80% of its interceptors for a key missile defense system.

The US military has burned through nearly four-fifths of its THAAD missile inventory compared to pre-war numbers and roughly half of its Patriot interceptors since the start of the war, according to two sources familiar with the inventory report.

Trump later claimed that the US has “massive amounts” of munitions, but acknowledged certain munitions are in “tighter” supply.

Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

The president’s overall approval rating has slumped in recent months, with many taking issue with his handling of the Iran conflict.

A University of Massachusetts (UMass) Amherst poll published Monday found that over two-thirds of Americans surveyed disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war. His overall approval rating is down to 32%, according to the poll.

Over the weekend, the Washington Post reported that several US military leaders have advised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening the US’ ability to meet threats elsewhere, citing people familiar with a recent assessment prepared for the Pentagon chief. CNN has not independently verified the reporting.

Meanwhile, in Iran, an already troubled economy is facing major challenges.

Inflation rates have reached “alarming levels,” with many working-class families unable to afford basic food items, according to state-affiliated Iranian media.

Annual inflation, measured over the 12-month period leading up to July, stood at 66%, according to the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA).

Like the US, Iran is running through its weapons stockpiles.

Arash Azizi, a US-based Iran expert, said Iran’s economy has taken a massive hit, but “the regime knows that a total capitulation could bring its downfall.”

Tehran may therefore escalate against the United States, calculating that it cannot absorb the economic pressure indefinitely and needs to break the stalemate.

Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Iran’s behavior – as well as the speed and scope of its response to the last US strikes – shows that Tehran is choosing to respond rather than yield, Hamidreza Azizi from the ICG said.

That’s because Tehran cannot afford to accept the prevailing order that Trump appears to be trying to impose in the Strait of Hormuz, experts say.

“The events of the past several days sharpen the picture in the Strait of Hormuz, and expose a fundamental mismatch between the US and Iranian approaches to the current confrontation,” Citrinowicz said.

While Washington appears to be trying to avoid kinetic escalation and keep the conflict contained to the economic domain, Iran is pursuing the opposite strategy, Citrinowicz wrote on X.

“It will continue trying to disrupt tanker traffic and challenge the US effort to establish a new reality in the Strait,” he said.

Iran has repeatedly said that it is prepared to return to the negotiating table if Washington resumes its commitments under the memorandum of understanding signed in June.

“I state clearly that if the United States returns to its commitments under the aforementioned memorandum of understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately reciprocate,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan.

But Trump has claimed he is happy with the current position.

“I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday night, after Iran retaliated following US strikes. “I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing.”

Citrinowicz said on X that while both Iran and the US “understand the risks of uncontrolled escalation,” they “continue climbing the escalation ladder.”

“The problem is that this equilibrium is unlikely to hold,” he said.

CNN’s Aida Karimi, Mostafa Salem, Zachary Cohen, Jim Sciutto, Haley Britzky, Adam Cancryn, Mohammed Tawfeeq, Jessie Yeung, Matt Egan, Julian Torres and Billy Stockwell contributed reporting.

伊朗和美国之间长达一个月的战斗平静期在本周结束，双方再次交火，使该地区再次陷入危险且可能无法持续的军事僵局。

周二，美国军方再次袭击伊朗，导致德黑兰对约旦、巴林和科威特发动袭击，无视美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的警告，即任何报复行动都将导致伊朗“遭受更猛烈的打击”。

与一个多月前发生的激烈冲突不同，此次交火规模有限，专家表示，这表明双方都不愿恢复全面战斗。

“到目前为止，两国主要将攻击目标集中在军事目标而非民用或能源目标上。尽管伊朗高级官员发出威胁，但德黑兰尚未恢复对沙特阿拉伯或阿联酋的袭击，”以色列军事情报局伊朗分局前局长丹尼·西特里诺维奇在X网站上发表的一篇文章中写道。

然而，当前局势十分危险，任何误判都可能导致双方再次陷入全面冲突。

美国中央司令部/路透社

国际危机组织（ICG）智库高级伊朗问题分析师哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹告诉CNN的贝基·安德森：“双方都不想重回全面战争。”他还补充说，伊朗扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的交通以及美国对伊朗的经济压力对双方来说都“越来越难以持续”。

美国总统表示，他无意与伊朗谈判。“我丝毫不在意他们签署一份对他们来说毫无价值的协议，”特朗普说，并补充说他“现在更喜欢”美国的立场。

但抛开言辞不谈，美国民众正在感受到战争的代价，公众普遍对这场冲突表示不满，据报道，截至 7 月，这场冲突已使华盛顿损失了约 400 亿美元。

在伊朗，战争的影响更为严重。美国正努力压榨本已疲弱的伊朗经济，同时还要应对石油销售困境。伊朗的武器储备也可能正在被消耗殆尽，民众难以获得包括食品和药品在内的基本生活必需品。

特朗普政府或许认为他们在霍尔木兹海峡取得了胜利。据两位熟悉此次行动的美国官员透露，周二，美军护送40艘载有1800万桶石油的商船通过了该水道，创下了战时护送量的新高。

但这并未改善整体形势。尽管全球油价周四略有下跌，但仍处于高位。

据美国汽车协会的数据，目前美国全国汽油平均价格为每加仑 4.14 美元，而一年前为每加仑 3.19 美元。

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

与此同时，由于特朗普政府继续动用紧急石油以尽量减少战争的影响，美国战略石油储备的石油量在近几个月来暴跌至 1983 年以来的最低水平。

周四，美国副总统万斯既没有给出伊朗战争结束的时间表，也没有给出汽油价格可能跌至战前水平以下的日期，而是暗示结束冲突取决于伊朗自身。

在军事方面，美国正在消耗大量武器库存并部署昂贵的军事资产。上个月，多位知情人士告诉CNN，美军已耗尽其关键导弹防御系统近80%的拦截弹。

据两名熟悉库存报告的消息人士透露，与战前数量相比，美军已消耗了近五分之四的“萨德”导弹库存，自战争开始以来，其“爱国者”拦截导弹库存也消耗了大约一半。

特朗普后来声称美国拥有“大量”弹药，但也承认某些弹药的供应“比较紧张”。

Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

近几个月来，总统的总体支持率大幅下滑，许多人对他处理伊朗冲突的方式表示不满。

马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校周一公布的一项民调显示，超过三分之二的受访美国人对特朗普处理战争的方式表示不满。民调显示，他的总体支持率已降至32%。

周末，《华盛顿邮报》报道称，多位美国军方领导人已向国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯建议，延长对伊朗的大规模军事行动是不可持续的，并有可能削弱美国应对其他地区威胁的能力。该报道援引知情人士的话称，他们了解一份近期提交给五角大楼负责人的评估报告。CNN尚未独立核实该报道。

与此同时，伊朗本已疲软的经济正面临着严峻的挑战。

据伊朗官方媒体报道，通货膨胀率已达到“令人担忧的水平”，许多工薪阶层家庭无力负担基本食品。

据伊朗劳工通讯社（ILNA）报道，截至7月份的12个月内，年通货膨胀率为66%。

与美国一样，伊朗也在消耗其武器库存。

美国伊朗问题专家阿拉什·阿齐兹表示，伊朗经济遭受了巨大打击，但“该政权知道，彻底投降可能会导致其垮台”。

因此，德黑兰可能会升级对美国的行动，因为它认为无法无限期地承受经济压力，需要打破僵局。

Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/Getty Images

国际危机组织 (ICG) 的哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹表示，伊朗的行为，以及其对美国最近一次袭击的反应速度和范围，表明德黑兰选择回应而不是屈服。

专家表示，这是因为德黑兰无法接受特朗普似乎正试图在霍尔木兹海峡强加的现行秩序。

“过去几天的事件使霍尔木兹海峡的局势更加明朗，并暴露出美国和伊朗在应对当前对抗问题上的做法存在根本分歧，”西特里诺维奇说。

Citrinowicz 在 X 上写道，虽然华盛顿似乎试图避免武力升级，并将冲突限制在经济领域，但伊朗却采取了相反的策略。

他说：“它将继续试图扰乱油轮交通，挑战美国在海峡建立新格局的努力。”

伊朗多次表示，如果华盛顿恢复履行6月份签署的谅解备忘录中的承诺，伊朗准备重返谈判桌。

伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安周二在吉尔吉斯斯坦举行的上海合作组织峰会间隙表示：“我明确指出，如果美国恢复履行上述谅解备忘录下的承诺，伊朗伊斯兰共和国将立即予以对等回应。”

但特朗普声称他对目前的处境感到满意。

“我并不想强迫伊朗回到谈判桌前，”特朗普周二晚在Truth Social网站上写道，此前伊朗对美国空袭进行了报复。“我现在更喜欢我们的处境，我们几乎完全控制了霍尔木兹海峡，而他们的经济正在彻底崩溃。”

Citrinowicz 在 X 上表示，虽然伊朗和美国都“了解不受控制的升级的风险”，但他们“仍在不断攀升升级的阶梯”。

“问题在于这种平衡不太可能维持下去，”他说。

CNN 的 Aida Karimi、Mostafa Salem、Zachary Cohen、Jim Sciutto、Haley Britzky、Adam Cancryn、Mohammed Tawfeeq、Jessie Yeung、Matt Egan、Julian Torres 和 Billy Stockwell 也参与了报道。