As private investment in defense increases, some bottlenecks in funding: AIA-Bain

An F-35 Lightning II jet sits in production at Lockheed Martin's factory in Fort Worth, Texas. (Capt. Staci Reidinger/Air Force)

WASHINGTON — Money is pouring into defense technology firms , but key areas like critical minerals and components like semiconductors or solid rocket motors remain an underfunded gap in the industrial base, according to a new study by the Aerospace Industries Association and Bain & Company.

And while venture capital funding for defense has increased by 10 times since 2019, other funding pools like private equity remain relatively untapped by defense companies , the study found.

“Defense does not face a shortage of capital. It faces barriers that make expanded investment, particularly in critical bottleneck areas, more difficult,” states the study.

“The challenge is creating the conditions that allow capital to flow to the facilities, technologies, workforce, and production capacity needed to strengthen the defense industrial base and deliver for the warfighter,” it said.

AIA commissioned the study, which was performed by Bain, in the hopes of explaining to federal decisionmakers how to incentivize more private investment in defense companies, AIA President Eric Fanning told Breaking Defense in an interview.

“There’s a misunderstanding of how much private capital is in defense, how you incentivize it, move it towards defense, and things that you do that inadvertently create barriers to that type of investment,” he said. “Venture capital, private equity, retirement funds — they’re all looking for different things, and you want to create that mix of investment return possibilities to attract that diversity of investment.”

Bain conducted 50 interviews with large primes, startups, investors, banks and others throughout the Pentagon and industry. AIA also provided results from a member survey and data analysis.

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“Investment in aerospace and defense stocks has grown,” the study states, pointing to market capitalization of publicly traded US aerospace and defense firms, which nearly doubled 2019 levels at around $1.6 trillion in 2025. “However, private capital is distributed unevenly, and there are often ‘unseen’ gaps.”

One of those gaps is domestic refining of critical minerals like gallium and germanium, which are used in defense products ranging from missiles to radar to magnets.

Mining critical minerals is “capital-intensive and subject to global commodity price fluctuations, while some important machinery is produced abroad,” the study said. “These dynamics give investors pause. Recent policies have increased focus on critical input challenges, but projects remain long-cycle and high risk.”

The Defense Department has taken the unusual step of taking a stake in US-based critical minerals companies, such as a $400 million direct equity investment in MP Materials last year.

While the study did not directly address whether those equity stakes are likely lead to greater private investment, Fanning said government funding was pivotal for ensuring that the US retains access to critical minerals.

“This is a place where there needs to be some government investment,” he said. “If that is considered a national security priority, which I think everybody agrees on, being able to reshore some of this critical mineral availability, there isn’t enough of a demand from the defense industrial base to justify fully private investment to reshore that capability.

Another key gap is sub-tier manufacturing of critical components like castings and forgings, advanced semiconductors, energetics, sensors and solid rocket motors, the study stated. These items are typically made by second or third-tier suppliers who may be privately held, or may choose to use the majority of their production capacity for more lucrative commercial contacts.

“Smaller suppliers can find rapid increases in demand particularly challenging. Their access to capital is lower given their size, especially without a firm order or signed contract,” the study said. “They often also lack the infrastructure to rapidly hire and train employees, especially when located in less densely populated geographies.”

The study did not lay out specific ways to shore up the second and third tiers of the supply chain. However, suppliers told AIA-Bain that the demand signal from the Pentagon was critical for being able to obtain and make investments. One recommendation from the report stated that long-term contracts would “drive supplier investment and productivity.”

Big Gains in VC funding, But Private Equity Lags

Despite the attention on venture capital money flowing into the defense tech space, the “overwhelming majority” of investment dollars continues to come from the stock market, particularly retirement funds and other investors who are seeking stable, predictable cash flows, the study said. (This can be a double edged sword, the study stated, with defense not seen as a sector where an investment will generate a large return.)

However, venture capital investment in the defense sector remains a good news story. Investments in defense have shot up from $1 billion in 2019 to about $10 billion in 2025, with successes like Palantir and SpaceX leading to a growth in venture capital dollars to other defense tech startups, particularly in areas such as space, AI, drones and software, according to the AIA-Bain report.

RELATED: J.P. Morgan eyeing both defense startups and legacy firms for $10B investment push

At the same time, “US venture capital investment in defense is low relative to the technology sector and overall venture investment,” with only about 5–6% of global venture capital funds heading toward defense companies.”

Another key constraint pointed to “overwhelmingly” by venture capital investors and defense tech startups is the funding gap that exists when a firm is transitioning to production.

Companies in their research and development stage “attract private venture investment because their high risk profile, with the potential for a large exit multiple, matches VC investment models,” while a company in a mature production stage attracts investment because of the low risk involved, AIA-Bain stated.

“There is no ‘fit-for-purpose’ investment model for the space in between—when a promising technology has not yet been demonstrated and produced,” the study said.

In contrast to the VC growth, p rivate equity participation in defense is still relatively small at around $1 billion to $3 billion annually, with most private equity dollars streaming toward companies that do significant business in commercial sectors like aerospace or industrials.

“Private equity focuses on established businesses with predictable cash flows, operational improvement potential, and clear exit paths. The most attractive investments therefore have predictable future volumes that can be forecast with confidence using rich and reliable data,” the AIA-Bain study states.

“Historically, defense opportunities have often not met these criteria,” it continued. “But many private-equity leaders interviewed suggest that is changing because of market growth and acquisition reforms.”

一架F-35“闪电II”战斗机正在位于德克萨斯州沃斯堡的洛克希德·马丁公司工厂内生产。（斯泰西·雷丁格上尉/美国空军）

华盛顿——据航空航天工业协会和贝恩公司的一项新研究显示，资金正涌入国防科技公司，但关键领域，如关键矿物和半导体或固体火箭发动机等零部件，仍然是工业基础中资金不足的缺口。

研究发现，虽然自 2019 年以来，国防领域的风险投资增加了 10 倍，但其他资金来源，如私募股权，仍未得到国防公司的充分利用。

该研究指出：“国防并不面临资金短缺的问题。它面临的障碍使得扩大投资，尤其是在关键瓶颈领域，变得更加困难。”

报告称：“挑战在于创造条件，使资本能够流向加强国防工业基础并为作战人员提供服务所需的设施、技术、劳动力和生产能力。”

美国建筑师协会 (AIA) 委托贝恩公司进行这项研究，希望向联邦决策者解释如何激励更多私人投资国防公司。AIA 主席埃里克·范宁在接受 Breaking Defense 采访时表示。

他说：“人们对国防领域私人资本的规模、如何激励这些资本流入国防领域、如何引导这些资本流向国防领域，以及一些无意中阻碍这类投资的做法存在误解。风险投资、私募股权、退休基金——它们各自的投资目标都不尽相同，你需要创造多种投资回报的可能性，才能吸引多元化的投资。”

贝恩公司对五角大楼及各行业内的大型承包商、初创公司、投资者、银行及其他人士进行了50次访谈。美国建筑师协会（AIA）也提供了会员调查和数据分析的结果。

三个演习证明了反无人机系统（C-UAS）的一种新方法。

将传感器、C2、射频效应和激光连接成分布式 c-UAS 杀伤链的架构。

该研究指出，“对航空航天和国防股票的投资有所增长”，并指出美国上市航空航天和国防公司的市值在2025年将比2019年翻一番，达到约1.6万亿美元。“然而，私人资本的分布并不均衡，而且往往存在‘看不见的’缺口。”

其中一个差距是国内对镓、锗等关键矿物的提炼，这些矿物被用于从导弹到雷达再到磁铁等各种国防产品。

该研究指出，开采关键矿产“资本密集，且易受全球大宗商品价格波动的影响，一些重要机械设备也产自国外”。“这些因素令投资者犹豫不决。尽管近期政策更加关注关键投入要素方面的挑战，但项目周期依然长，风险依然高。”

美国国防部采取了不同寻常的举措，入股美国本土的关键矿产公司，例如去年向 MP Materials 公司直接投资了 4 亿美元股权。

虽然该研究没有直接探讨这些股权是否可能导致更多的私人投资，但范宁表示，政府资金对于确保美国继续获得关键矿产至关重要。

他说：“这方面需要政府投资。如果将一些关键矿产资源迁回国内视为国家安全优先事项（我认为大家都同意这一点），那么国防工业基础的需求不足以证明完全依靠私人投资来恢复这种能力是合理的。”

研究指出，另一个关键缺口在于二级或三级关键零部件的制造，例如铸件和锻件、先进半导体、能源产品、传感器和固体火箭发动机。这些产品通常由二三级供应商生产，这些供应商可能是私营企业，也可能选择将大部分产能用于利润更高的商业项目。

研究指出：“小型供应商会发现，需求快速增长尤其具有挑战性。由于规模较小，他们的融资渠道有限，尤其是在没有确定订单或已签署合同的情况下。此外，他们往往缺乏快速招聘和培训员工的基础设施，尤其是在人口密度较低的地区。”

该研究并未提出加强供应链二三级的具体方法。然而，供应商告诉AIA-Bain，五角大楼的需求信号对于获得和进行投资至关重要。报告的一项建议指出，长期合同将“推动供应商投资和提高生产力”。

风险投资大幅增长，但私募股权投资却滞后

尽管风险投资资金涌入国防科技领域备受关注，但研究指出，“绝大多数”投资资金仍然来自股票市场，尤其是那些寻求稳定、可预测现金流的退休基金和其他投资者。（研究还指出，这可能是一把双刃剑，因为国防领域并不被视为一个能够带来高额投资回报的行业。）

然而，国防领域的风险投资仍然是个好消息。据AIA-贝恩报告显示，国防领域的投资额已从2019年的10亿美元飙升至2025年的约100亿美元，Palantir和SpaceX等公司的成功带动了其他国防科技初创企业获得更多风险投资，尤其是在太空、人工智能、无人机和软件等领域。

相关报道：摩根大通计划斥资100亿美元投资国防初创企业和传统企业。

与此同时，“美国对国防领域的风险投资相对于科技行业和整体风险投资而言较低”，全球风险投资基金中只有约 5-6% 流向国防公司。

风险投资家和国防科技初创公司“普遍”指出的另一个关键制约因素是公司向生产过渡时存在的资金缺口。

AIA-Bain 表示，处于研发阶段的公司“之所以能吸引私人风险投资，是因为其高风险状况以及可能获得的高额退出回报与风险投资模式相符”，而处于成熟生产阶段的公司之所以能吸引投资，是因为其风险较低。

该研究指出：“对于尚未得到验证和生产的有前景的技术而言，目前还没有‘合适的’投资模式。”

与风险投资的增长相比，私募股权在国防领域的参与仍然相对较小，每年约为 10 亿至 30 亿美元，大部分私募股权资金流向在航空航天或工业等商业领域开展重大业务的公司。

“私募股权投资专注于现金流可预测、运营改进潜力巨大且退出路径清晰的成熟企业。因此，最具吸引力的投资标的拥有可预测的未来业务量，而这些业务量可以通过丰富可靠的数据进行自信的预测。”AIA-Bain 的研究报告指出。

报告继续指出：“从历史上看，国防领域的投资机会往往不符合这些标准。但许多接受采访的私募股权领袖表示，由于市场增长和收购改革，这种情况正在发生改变。”