Britain’s PM is on a ‘Burnham bounce.’ When will he fall to earth?

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Some have dubbed it the “Burnham bounce.”

That is, the surge in public support for the UK’s governing Labour Party after the former mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham took to the helm this summer as the country’s seventh prime minister in a decade.

But the problems which plagued Burnham’s predecessor, including over immigration, the souring of the economy amid the Iran war and rising geopolitical tensions, linger – and cannot be fixed by optimism alone.

This week, Burnham is under intense pressure to demonstrate he has a solution to such issues at the first Labour Party conference of his premiership, all while the hard-right Reform UK party closely tails Labour in the polls.

So, what are the key hurdles that Burnham must overcome?

Despite facing a drumbeat of allegations about its party finances in recent months, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is only narrowly behind Labour in the polls – something Farage pointed to when Burnham recently ruled out an early general election.

“It’s obvious that Andy Burnham doesn’t want talk of a General Election overshadowing Labour’s conference,” Farage posted on X Friday. “Reform are ready for an election whenever it is called.”

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Reform has lost some buoyancy following a string of damning financial scandals, the latest of which prompted a criminal investigation into party donations. Reform denies any wrongdoing and says it will “cooperate fully with the investigation.”

But the populist, anti-migrant party – which won big in England’s local elections earlier this year – clearly poses a threat to Burnham, particularly as anti-immigrant sentiments are bubbling to the surface in some parts of the country.

Earlier this month, major anti-migration protests swept along parts of Britain’s coastline with hundreds of balaclava-wearing demonstrators blocking roads and clashing with police, scenes which Burnham called “unacceptable.”

Why are far-right masked men protesting at British ports?

“This is not something we have seen in this country before,” he told the BBC on Sunday, while accepting that “there are real worries about immigration in all parts of country.”

Meanwhile, the prime minister is having to claw back progressives who defected to the Green Party under Starmer, as left-wing factions sought pastures new over Labour’s stance on issues like net zero and the Gaza conflict.

The threat posed by the Greens will be tested next week when the party’s leader, Zack Polanski, contests an election to become the next Member of Parliament (MP) in London’s Holborn and St Pancras constituency – Starmer’s former seat for over a decade.

During his first weeks as prime minister, Burnham announced a raft of policies targeting Britain’s economic woes, aiming to ease the pressure on cash-strapped households.

One policy was the reduction of bus fares in England, outside of London, to a maximum of £2 (about $2.60). He also announced plans to cut business rates bills for pubs and music venues, and touted other tax cuts for household electricity bills.

Such commitments have been cast as small fry by some challengers. “I find myself asking, is that it?” Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch said in July. And the pledges Burnham set out, including building more social housing and bringing essential utilities under greater public control, must all be funded under the same constraints faced by Starmer. Quite how remains an open question.

The economy is front-and-center of this year’s conference, which takes place just weeks before the new chancellor delivers the first budget of the Burnham government, setting out the approach to taxation and spending.

Burnham vowed to take “difficult decisions” on the economy earlier this month after official data showed a rise in inflation amid rising energy prices due to conflict in the Middle East.

The latest inflation figures were a “concern,” Burnham said, but he also spoke of the “resilience” of the British economy. “It is going to be challenging, because the picture around the world is challenging, particularly the situation in the Middle East, and we will look carefully at all those things.”

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Burnham entered 10 Downing Street with a sizeable entourage of supporters, having secured the backing of 379 out of 403 Labour MPs.

Mood within the party is still said to be chirpy and there is a lack of appetite to criticize the new leader, according to British media reports, but opposition is clearly growing in some quarters.

Ahead of the Labour conference, Peter Kyle – who previously served as Starmer’s business secretary – said the government was not focused enough on economic growth and needed to act with “more urgency.”

Asked by the BBC if there was enough focus on growth, Kyle said, “I don’t think there is and that isn’t a criticism – it is pointing to the potential that we have as a country and as a government.”

He said the government must “feel the need for economic growth” as acutely as it does about ending social ills such as rough sleeping – a pointed reference to a key pledge Burnham made in his first speech as prime minister.

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Meanwhile, Housing Secretary Angela Rayner, who was deputy head of the Labour party under Starmer before her 2024 resignation, has called out a planned change to visa rules which would impact foreign social care workers.

That led to Burnham’s culture secretary, Lisa Nandy, taking to the radio to voice her support for her boss.

“I think the reason, frankly, that we had a change of leadership at the start of this year is because we all felt that people need to feel the change in their lives that we promised in 2024 much more quickly,” she told the BBC.

The prime minister is “impatient for change, and he thinks big about the sort of change that the country needs,” she added.

Burnham is also facing opposition from grassroots Labour groups over the government’s stance on the conflict in Gaza, with some demanding Burnham bans arms sales to Israel and introduces “wide-ranging” sanctions on the country.

As mentioned, Burnham has already batted off the idea of an early general election.

“No election anytime soon. I’m focused on the job as prime minister, doing what I said I would do,” he said last week. As it stands the next election must be called before August 2029.

A strong election win would likely consolidate Burnham’s power and give him the mandate needed to push forward the policy changes set out at the beginning of his premiership.

A failure to call an election could lead to accusations of weakness, as it did for former British leader Gordon Brown. After a successful start to his tenure, things went downhill for Brown in 2007 when he ducked a widely expected general election – a move then-Conservative leader David Cameron cast as a “humiliating retreat.”

But an early election could also carry the risk of putting Labour’s falling support in opinion polls since the 2024 election under the spotlight, as Reform and Labour vie for the upper hand.

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British PM Andy Burnham exchanged messages with someone impersonating Trump’s chief of staff

Burnham is therefore in somewhat of a “Catch-22” over this decision.

“The Labour Party are back in the lead. But are we in a situation where it would seem to make sense for Andy Burnham to go to the country anytime soon? Definitely not,” John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and a leading polling expert, told Times Radio on Thursday.

It’s clear which option Burnham would rather take, at least for now.

“The time has come to draw a line, get the country looking forward, pulling together, people feeling a bit of hope in their lives again,” Burnham told the BBC.

“That’s what I’m trying to do, and I hope to take it further in the coming period rather than putting people back into an election cycle.”

伊恩·福赛斯/盖蒂图片社

有人称之为“伯纳姆反弹”。

也就是说，自曼彻斯特前市长安迪·伯纳姆今年夏天就任英国十年来第七任首相以来，英国执政的工党获得了公众的广泛支持。

但困扰伯纳姆前任的诸多问题，包括移民问题、伊朗战争导致的经济恶化以及日益加剧的地缘政治紧张局势，依然存在——而且仅靠乐观主义是无法解决的。

本周，伯纳姆面临着巨大的压力，他需要在就任首相以来的第一次工党大会上证明自己能够解决这些问题。与此同时，极右翼的英国改革党在民调中紧随工党之后。

那么，伯纳姆必须克服的关键障碍是什么？

尽管近几个月来，奈杰尔·法拉奇领导的英国改革党一直面临着有关其党内财务状况的指控，但该党在民调中仅略微落后于工党——法拉奇在伯纳姆最近排除提前举行大选的可能性时也指出了这一点。

“很明显，安迪·伯纳姆不想让有关大选的讨论掩盖工党大会，”法拉奇周五在X网站上发帖说。“改革党已经做好准备，随时迎接大选。”

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改革党在接连爆出一系列严重的财务丑闻后，士气有所下滑，其中最近的一起丑闻引发了对该党捐款的刑事调查。改革党否认有任何不当行为，并表示将“全力配合调查”。

但这个民粹主义的反移民政党——在今年早些时候的英格兰地方选举中大获全胜——显然对伯纳姆构成了威胁，尤其是在英国一些地区反移民情绪日益高涨的情况下。

本月初，大规模的反移民抗议活动席卷英国部分沿海地区，数百名头戴巴拉克拉法帽的示威者封锁道路并与警察发生冲突，伯纳姆称这些场景“令人无法接受”。

为什么极右翼蒙面男子会在英国港口进行抗议？

“这是我们国家以前从未见过的事情，”他周日告诉 BBC，同时他也承认“全国各地都对移民问题感到担忧”。

与此同时，由于工党在净零排放和加沙冲突等问题上的立场，左翼派系纷纷寻求新的发展方向，首相不得不努力挽回在斯塔默领导下倒戈加入绿党的进步派人士。

下周，绿党的威胁将受到考验，该党领袖扎克·波兰斯基将参加伦敦霍尔本和圣潘克拉斯选区的议员选举，该选区曾是斯塔默十多年的前任议员席位。

在担任首相的最初几周，伯纳姆宣布了一系列旨在解决英国经济困境的政策，以减轻资金紧张的家庭的压力。

其中一项政策是将英格兰（伦敦以外）的公交车票价降至最高2英镑（约合2.60美元）。他还宣布了削减酒吧和音乐场所营业税的计划，并大力宣传其他降低家庭电费的税收减免措施。

一些挑战者认为这些承诺无关紧要。“我不禁要问，就这些吗？”保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺克在7月份说道。伯纳姆提出的各项承诺，包括建造更多社会住房和将基本公共事业置于更大的公共控制之下，都必须在与斯塔默相同的限制下筹集资金。具体如何筹集资金仍是一个悬而未决的问题。

经济是今年会议的焦点，会议召开的时间距离新任财政大臣伯纳姆政府公布其首份预算案仅几周之遥，该预算案阐述了政府的税收和支出方针。

本月初，官方数据显示，由于中东冲突导致能源价格上涨，通货膨胀加剧，伯纳姆誓言要对经济做出“艰难的决定”。

伯纳姆表示，最新的通胀数据令人“担忧”，但他同时也谈到了英国经济的“韧性”。“这将是一个挑战，因为全球形势严峻，尤其是中东局势，我们将密切关注所有这些因素。”

Hannah McKay/法新社/盖蒂图片社

伯纳姆带着一大群支持者进入了唐宁街10号，他获得了403名工党议员中379人的支持。

据英国媒体报道，党内气氛依然轻松愉快，没有人愿意批评新领导人，但某些方面的反对声音显然正在增长。

在工党大会召开前夕，曾担任斯塔默商务大臣的彼得·凯尔表示，政府对经济增长的关注度不够，需要采取“更紧迫的行动”。

当被 BBC 问及是否对经济增长给予了足够的重视时，凯尔说：“我认为没有，这不是批评——而是指出我们作为一个国家和一个政府所拥有的潜力。”

他表示，政府必须像重视解决露宿街头等社会弊病一样，重视“经济增长的必要性”——这显然是指伯纳姆在担任首相的首次演讲中做出的一项关键承诺。

Eddie Mulholland/Getty Images

与此同时，住房大臣安吉拉·雷纳（Angela Rayner）曾担任斯塔默领导下的工党副主席，后于2024年辞职。她公开批评了一项计划中的签证规则变更，该变更将影响外国社会护理工作者。

这导致伯纳姆的文化大臣丽莎·南迪在电台节目中表达了对她老板的支持。

“坦白地说，我认为今年年初我们更换领导层的原因是，我们都觉得人们需要更快地感受到我们在 2024 年承诺的生活变化，”她告诉 BBC。

她补充说，首相“渴望变革，并且对国家需要的变革有着宏大的构想”。

伯纳姆还面临着来自基层工党团体的反对，反对意见源于政府在加沙冲突问题上的立场，一些基层工党团体要求伯纳姆禁止向以色列出售武器，并对该国实施“广泛的”制裁。

正如前面提到的，伯纳姆已经否决了提前举行大选的想法。

“近期不会举行大选。我专注于总理的工作，履行我承诺的一切，”他上周表示。目前来看，下届大选必须在2029年8月之前举行。

一场酣畅淋漓的选举胜利很可能会巩固伯纳姆的权力，并赋予他推进其总理任期之初制定的政策变革所需的民意授权。

不举行大选可能会招致软弱的指责，英国前首相戈登·布朗的遭遇便是如此。布朗执政初期颇为成功，但2007年他却回避了当时普遍预期的大选，导致其政治生涯急转直下——时任保守党领袖戴维·卡梅伦将此举斥为“耻辱性的退缩”。

但提前举行大选也可能使工党自 2024 年大选以来在民意调查中不断下降的支持率成为关注焦点，因为改革党和工党将争夺优势。

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英国首相安迪·伯纳姆与一名冒充特朗普幕僚长的人互发了信息。

因此，伯纳姆在这个决定上陷入了某种“进退两难”的境地。

“工党重新领先。但我们现在的情况是否意味着安迪·伯纳姆近期应该前往乡村呢？绝对不是，”斯特拉斯克莱德大学政治学教授、著名民调专家约翰·柯蒂斯周四在接受《泰晤士报》电台采访时表示。

至少目前来看，伯纳姆更倾向于哪种选择，这一点很明确。

“现在是时候划清界限，让国家向前看，团结一致，让人们再次感受到生活中的希望了，”伯纳姆告诉BBC。

“这就是我努力的方向，我希望在接下来的时间里能更进一步，而不是让人们重新陷入选举周期。”