Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever

Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/AP

Gulf oil producers, with considerable support from the US Navy, are jamming crude through the Strait of Hormuz, right under Iran’s nose.

Oil and petroleum product flows through the critical chokepoint averaged 13.1 million barrels per day last week, according to Kpler, a marine data tracking service. That’s just under 80% of the 17.1 million barrels that had traveled through the strait each day before the war broke out.

“Given such a strong volume passing through the strait, it is clear Iran is losing its influence over it,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler.

That milestone is the product of a complex operation involving military-escorted shuttles engaging in surreptitious “dark” transits of the strait that has helped restore significant flows for Middle East oil producers over the past couple of months. Adding to the recent strait traffic is a return of oil from Saudi Arabia that had been primarily diverted to the Red Sea until Iran-allied Houthis attacked a major Saudi oil pipeline earlier this month.

The crucial question: How long can the status quo hold up? The US military is expending tremendous resources in the region just to get oil through – all while global inventories continue to shrink toward operational lows and the price of fuel remains at or near record highs.

Meanwhile, Iran, backed into a corner, is starting to fight back.

The oil market seems to have unlimited tricks up its sleeve to get oil to customers – despite the world’s biggest-ever supply shock .

Global oil inventories have tumbled by around 2 billion barrels during the course of the Iran war, according to JPMorgan, but the market has held out. It has accomplished that remarkable feat through innovative solutions like pipeline diversions and the military-aided shuttle service, but also with an increase in production from outside the Gulf. And, crucially, a significant global decline in demand.

Oil prices remain uncomfortably high, but the market’s creative solutions have prevented crude from approaching its record high set in 2008.

Nevertheless, the current situation in Hormuz simply cannot last forever.

Oil is a physical product, and eventually market forces will take over. With more crude coming out of oil inventories than going in, eventually the market will reach its long-predicted and feared tipping point, at which point stockpiles are insufficient to satisfy demand. When that happens, oil prices will need to rocket higher to sap enough demand to keep the balance in check.

No one knows exactly when that will happen.

Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy, stopped trying to bother guessing.

“For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view,” Kaneva conceded two weeks ago in a note to clients. “We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”

The key, she argues, is no more about how long the war lasts but how long the market is able to clear the physical oil customers demand. Those two may be related: Without a true resolution in the Strait of Hormuz, the world will have to hold out hope that the market’s inventories hold out.

All of these market mechanics make for interesting economic theory and supply-and-demand analysis. But, practically speaking, it has meant very little for people’s wallets.

Oil has hovered above $90 a barrel all month and spent most of September north of $100. Gas prices are near their highest price of the war. Diesel, contending with the effects of the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war, blew past its previous record earlier this month and is priced well above $6 a gallon.

The fact that oil hasn’t gone to $150 (at least not yet) is cold comfort to Americans who have to spend $100 to fill up their tanks or businesses that have to pay high fuel surcharges to get their deliveries.

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Diesel costs more than $6 a gallon for the first time. Here’s how that affects you

Without much new information to go on, the market has traded in recent months on the potential prospects for a peace deal. President Donald Trump’s frequent comments throughout the war about a supposed looming deal with Iran to reopen the strait has had an outsized impact on oil prices – far more than actual physical barrels of oil.

That changed a bit earlier this month when the Houthis bombed the Saudi East-West pipeline, temporarily shutting down roughly 7 million barrels of oil flowing to the Red Sea – more than half of which had been diverted from the Strait of Hormuz. Oil neared $110 a barrel before the Saudis found yet another trick up their sleeves, proving remarkably adaptable to the situation and shifting oil back through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, satellite imagery from Sunday showed all seven berths open at two key ports in Yanbu and Al Muajjiz on Saudi Arabia’s West Coast, signaling that the East-West pipeline has ramped back up, according to Kpler.

So, can these volumes be sustained?

“For now, the workaround appears to be working – so long as Iran allows it to,” Kaneva said in her note earlier this month.

Iran, unable to get its own oil through the strait because of a US naval blockade, and losing its key source of economic leverage, has ramped up its attacks on oil tankers transiting the Gulf.

“Not surprisingly, attacks on tankers have become more common as Iran looks to deter transits,” Smith noted. “We should expect this to persist as Iran seeks to regain its grip on the strait.”

So the oil market remains at an impasse: an increasingly taxing US military effort keeping up an unsustainable status quo that continues to keep prices high for businesses and consumers.

阿米尔侯赛因·霍尔古伊/ISNA/美联社

海湾地区的石油生产商在美国海军的大力支持下，正将原油强行通过霍尔木兹海峡，就在伊朗眼皮底下。

据海洋数据追踪服务机构Kpler的数据显示，上周通过这一关键咽喉要道的石油和石油产品日均流量为1310万桶。这仅略低于战前每日通过该海峡的1710万桶流量的80%。

“鉴于通过海峡的货物运输量如此之大，很明显伊朗正在失去对该海峡的影响力，”Kpler 大宗商品研究主管 Matt Smith 表示。

这一里程碑的实现，得益于一项复杂的行动，该行动涉及军方护送的穿梭机秘密“暗”穿越霍尔木兹海峡，在过去几个月里，这项行动帮助中东石油生产商恢复了大量的石油供应。此外，沙特阿拉伯的石油也恢复了近期的海峡运输，这些石油此前主要被分流到红海，直到本月初伊朗支持的胡塞武装袭击了沙特一条重要的输油管道。

关键问题是：现状还能维持多久？美国军方在该地区耗费巨资，仅仅是为了确保石油供应——与此同时，全球石油库存持续下降，接近可用水平，而燃油价格却居高不下或接近历史高位。

与此同时，被逼到绝境的伊朗开始反击。

尽管面临全球有史以来最大的供应冲击，石油市场似乎仍有无限的妙招来将石油送到客户手中。

据摩根大通的数据，伊朗战争期间全球石油库存减少了约20亿桶，但市场依然坚挺。这一非凡成就的取得，得益于管道改道和军方协助的穿梭运输等创新解决方案，以及海湾以外地区石油产量的增加。而至关重要的是，全球石油需求的显著下降也起到了推波助澜的作用。

石油价格仍然居高不下，令人不安，但市场的创造性解决方案阻止了原油价格接近 2008 年创下的历史最高水平。

然而，霍尔木兹目前的局势不可能永远持续下去。

石油是一种实物产品，最终市场力量会发挥作用。随着原油库存的消耗量超过新增量，市场最终会达到人们长期以来预测和担忧的临界点，届时库存将不足以满足需求。一旦这种情况发生，油价将不得不飙升，以抑制足够的需求来维持供需平衡。

没有人确切知道那件事何时会发生。

摩根大通全球大宗商品策略主管娜塔莎·卡内瓦放弃了猜测。

“自伊朗冲突爆发以来，我们首次没有基准线图，”卡内瓦两周前在给客户的一份报告中承认。“我们根本不知道该如何模拟最终结局。”

她认为，关键不再在于战争持续多久，而在于市场能够满足实物石油客户的需求多久。这两者或许密切相关：如果霍尔木兹海峡的冲突无法得到真正解决，世界只能寄希望于市场库存能够维持供应。

所有这些市场机制都为有趣的经济理论和供求分析提供了可能。但实际上，这对人们的钱包几乎没有任何影响。

原油价格本月一直徘徊在每桶90美元以上，9月份大部分时间都高于100美元。汽油价格接近战争以来的最高水平。受伊朗战争和俄乌战争的影响，柴油价格在本月初突破了此前的纪录，目前远高于每加仑6美元。

石油价格尚未达到每桶 150 美元（至少目前还没有），但这对于那些不得不花费 100 美元加满油箱的美国人来说，或者对于那些不得不支付高额燃油附加费才能获得货物的企业来说，并不能带来多少安慰。

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

柴油价格首次超过每加仑6美元。这会对你产生什么影响？

由于缺乏太多新信息，近几个月来，市场交易主要围绕着和平协议的潜在前景展开。在战争期间，唐纳德·特朗普总统频繁提及即将与伊朗达成协议以重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，这些言论对油价的影响远超实际原油价格。

本月初，情况略有变化。胡塞武装轰炸了沙特的东西输油管道，暂时切断了约700万桶流向红海的石油——其中超过一半原本是通过霍尔木兹海峡输送的。油价一度接近每桶110美元，但沙特方面又想出了一个妙招，展现了惊人的适应能力，将石油重新通过霍尔木兹海峡输送。

据 Kpler 称，与此同时，周日的卫星图像显示，沙特阿拉伯西海岸延布和穆阿吉兹两个主要港口的七个泊位全部开放，这表明东西输油管道已恢复运行。

那么，这样的销量能持续下去吗？

“就目前而言，这种变通办法似乎行之有效——只要伊朗允许就行，”卡内瓦在本月初的一份报告中写道。

由于美国海军封锁，伊朗无法通过海峡运输石油，失去了其主要的经济筹码，因此加大了对途经海湾的油轮的袭击力度。

史密斯指出：“不出所料，随着伊朗试图阻止油轮过境，袭击油轮的事件变得越来越频繁。我们应该预料到，随着伊朗寻求重新控制霍尔木兹海峡，这种情况还会持续下去。”

因此，石油市场仍然处于僵局：美国日益增长的军事行动维持着不可持续的现状，导致企业和消费者的油价持续高企。