El Niño just gave us the first no-hurricane September in decades. How long can the Atlantic shutout last?

The Atlantic Ocean has failed to produce a hurricane in the month of September for the first time in more than 30 years, the latest feat by a super El Niño widely predicted to become the strongest ever.

Only three other Septembers have gone hurricane-free in the Atlantic in records dating back to 1950. It last happened in 1994, and before that in 1972 and 1962, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert with Colorado State University.

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Three tropical storms did form last month, so the Atlantic wasn’t completely closed for business. Of those, Tropical Storm Fay was closest to hurricane intensity. Its winds fell short by 4 mph, but there’s a chance Fay gets upgraded in the National Hurricane Center’s final review.

The numbers have been stark. The average for a season is seven hurricanes, and we should have seen five of them by now. Last year was below average, with five hurricanes — but four had already shown up by the start of October, three of which came in September.

September is usually prime time for hurricanes because storm-fueling warm water is at its most expansive and hottest alongside ripe atmospheric factors. About two to three hurricanes develop in the month on average.

This El Niño-stifled season had already blown past the most reliable record for the longest wait for the first hurricane to materialize, and the lack of any as October begins sets the stage for an even rarer possibility: an entire Atlantic season without hurricanes.

Water temperatures have been warm enough for Atlantic hurricanes, but El Niño-fueled wind shear, aka tropical-system kryptonite, is the biggest reason the season has been squashed.

Wind shear refers to changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, and it can shred apart anything from budding tropical systems to full-blown hurricanes.

The shear has been record-strong since this summer across parts of the Atlantic’s so-called main development region, which extends from Africa through the Caribbean, according to Klotzbach. As the name suggests, this is where many storms get their start at the height of the season — mid-August to early October — but this year it’s been nearly shutdown.

Tropical storms Dolly and Gonzalo are the only systems that have formed in this part of the ocean so far, and a wall of wind shear ripped both of them apart. Dolly lasted one day; Gonzalo almost made it two.

Meanwhile, El Niño’s extremely warm water has turned hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific hyperactive. A total of 20 named storms — including three Category 5 hurricanes — have roamed those ocean basins.

Hurricane Polo’s extreme rapid intensification to a Category 5 with 180 mph winds off the coast of Mexico last week tied it as the third strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record.

And Hawaii is enduring hurricane fatigue after Lala, Lowell and Nolo all swiped by the island chain with heavy rain and strong winds.

There have been just two years without an Atlantic hurricane: 1914 and 1907. But both come with an asterisk since they were before satellites and aircraft started tracking hurricanes more accurately, so one could have been missed.

In more modern records — since 1950 — there hasn’t been a single Atlantic season without a hurricane. The 1982 and 2013 seasons saw the fewest, with just two.

There are still two months to go, and October averages about one hurricane formation each year; occasionally November can spin one up, too. But the deeper we head into the month, the greater the odds the season could end without one.

Late-season storms tend to form closer to the United States, including in the Gulf, Caribbean and off the Southeast coast, which gives them greater odds to impact land. The Caribbean is fully entrenched in El Niño’s shear, so it’s likely off the table as a development area the rest of the way.

But as this year has shown, it doesn’t take a hurricane-strength system to cause significant impacts, particularly in a warming world that’s making tropical systems wetter.

Tropical storms Arthur and Edouard didn’t last long, but heavy rain from both resulted in significant flash flooding and water rescues near the Gulf Coast.

大西洋在9月份未能产生飓风，这是30多年来的首次，也是超级厄尔尼诺现象的最新成果，而此次厄尔尼诺现象被广泛预测为有史以来最强的一次。

据科罗拉多州立大学飓风专家菲尔·克洛茨巴赫博士称，自 1950 年有记录以来，大西洋上一次出现 9 月份没有飓风的情况只有三次。上一次发生在 1994 年，再往前则是 1972 年和 1962 年。

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上个月确实形成了三个热带风暴，所以大西洋并非完全没有风暴活动。其中，热带风暴费伊最接近飓风强度。它的风速比飓风少了4英里/小时，但费伊有可能在国家飓风中心的最终评估中被升级为飓风。

数字令人震惊。通常一个飓风季平均会有七个飓风，而我们现在应该已经看到五个了。去年飓风数量低于平均水平，只有五个——但到十月初就已经出现了四个，其中三个发生在九月份。

九月通常是飓风的高发期，因为此时温暖的海水范围最广、温度最高，而且大气条件也最为适宜形成飓风。平均每个月会形成两到三个飓风。

受厄尔尼诺现象抑制的这个飓风季已经打破了等待第一个飓风出现的最可靠纪录，而10月份至今仍未出现任何飓风，这为一种更为罕见的可能性埋下了伏笔：整个大西洋飓风季都没有飓风。

水温已经足够温暖，足以形成大西洋飓风，但厄尔尼诺现象引发的风切变（又称热带气旋的克星）是飓风季被扼杀的最大原因。

风切变是指大气不同高度的风速和风向的变化，它可以撕裂从萌芽的热带气旋到完全成熟的飓风的任何天气系统。

据克洛茨巴赫称，自今年夏季以来，大西洋所谓主要发展区（从非洲延伸至加勒比海）部分海域的风切变强度一直处于历史最高水平。顾名思义，许多风暴在旺季（8月中旬至10月初）都起源于此，但今年该区域几乎完全停止了活动。

热带风暴多莉和冈萨洛是迄今为止在该海域形成的仅有的两个热带气旋系统，而一股强劲的风切变将它们迅速瓦解。多莉只持续了一天；冈萨洛则几乎持续了两天。

与此同时，厄尔尼诺现象导致的极度温暖的海水使得东太平洋和中太平洋的飓风季异常活跃。共有20个命名风暴——其中包括3个五级飓风——在这些海域肆虐。

上周，飓风波罗在墨西哥沿海迅速增强为五级飓风，风速达到每小时 180 英里，使其成为有记录以来东太平洋第三强飓风。

飓风拉拉、洛厄尔和诺洛先后袭击了夏威夷群岛，带来了暴雨和强风，夏威夷已经出现了飓风疲劳。

只有两年没有大西洋飓风：1914 年和 1907 年。但这两年都带有星号，因为当时卫星和飞机还没有开始更准确地追踪飓风，所以可能有一次飓风被漏掉了。

从1950年至今的较近记录来看，大西洋飓风季从未出现过飓风。1982年和2013年飓风数量最少，仅有两个。

还有两个月的时间，十月份平均每年会形成一个飓风；偶尔十一月份也会出现。但随着月份的深入，飓风季最终没有飓风的可能性就越大。

季末风暴往往在美国附近形成，包括墨西哥湾、加勒比海和东南沿海地区，这增加了它们登陆的可能性。加勒比海地区完全受到厄尔尼诺现象的影响，因此不太可能成为风暴发展的区域。

但正如今年所表明的那样，并不需要飓风级别的系统才能造成重大影响，尤其是在全球变暖导致热带系统变得更加潮湿的背景下。

热带风暴亚瑟和爱德华持续时间不长，但两者带来的强降雨导致墨西哥湾沿岸附近发生严重的突发性洪水，并引发了水上救援行动。