Bank of Thailand top official warns repeated economic shocks are weakening the country’s resilience

October 2, 2026 at 11:33 am

in Economy , Living , Media , Politics , Thailand

Thailand’s flood crisis is punching into the wider economy as the Bank of Thailand warns of mounting pressure on indebted households and small businesses. Bangkok hotels are already losing bookings during China’s Golden Week, while supply-chain disruption has halted four Toyota plants. Economists put nationwide losses as high as ฿33.8 billion. Yet major hotels, airports and central Bangkok remain open, prompting industry fears that dramatic flood images could drive tourists elsewhere. With household finances already weakened by successive shocks, the flooding is rapidly becoming an economic crisis far beyond the streets underwater.

Bank of Thailand’s Chayawadee Chai-Anant warns floods are hitting indebted households and small firms as nationwide economic losses could reach ฿33.8 billion. ( Source: The Nation )

Thailand’s flood crisis is hitting an economy where vulnerable households and small businesses already face severe financial pressure. The Bank of Thailand now warns that the damage could persist after floodwaters recede. Its concern centres on borrowers already weakened by repeated economic shocks.

Assistant Governor for Corporate Relations and BOT spokesperson Chayawadee Chai-Anant highlighted the mounting pressure on stretched borrowers. She said successive shocks had weakened balance sheets before the latest flooding arrived.

“Small businesses and vulnerable groups could face a heavier debt burden,” Ms Chayawadee warned. “Successive economic shocks are weakening their balance sheets. That is quite worrying.”

Flood disruption spreads across key sectors as billions in economic losses begin mounting across Bangkok

Already, the flooding is disrupting economic activity far beyond Bangkok’s submerged roads. Services, transport, retail, wholesale, construction and goods distribution have been affected. Hotel bookings are also being cancelled or postponed as travellers reconsider visits.

In parallel, economists are calculating losses running into billions of baht. The final economic cost remains unclear because flooding continues across Bangkok and other provinces. Still, the effects are increasingly visible across major sectors.

Services have taken a direct hit alongside transport and goods distribution. Retailers and wholesalers have also suffered disruption, while construction activity has been affected. Initially, manufacturing escaped much of the wider impact.

More recently, supply-chain disruption temporarily stopped operations at four Toyota plants. That development pushed the economic impact beyond businesses and communities directly exposed to floodwater.

Separately, the central bank is watching household purchasing power closely. It is also monitoring tourism confidence as Thailand approaches the final months of 2026. Both issues could extend the economic impact beyond the immediate emergency.

Bangkok hotel cancellations rise as Golden Week visitors reconsider trips amid widespread flood images

That concern is now reflected in Bangkok’s hotel industry. Thai Hotels Association President Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun confirmed cancellations and postponed reservations. The THA has started surveying members to establish how many travellers have changed their plans.

For now, complete survey results have not been released. However, THA expects Bangkok hotel occupancy to decline during September and October. It forecasts a year-on-year fall of less than 10%.

Notably, the flooding has struck during an important period for international tourism. China’s National Day Golden Week began on October 1. The disruption therefore coincides with a major outbound travel period for Chinese visitors.

At the same time, THA is concerned about images reaching potential visitors overseas. Pictures of flooded Bangkok roads can influence perceptions about conditions across the entire capital. The actual physical impact is more concentrated.

Most major Bangkok hotels have not suffered direct flooding. Central business districts and important tourism areas also remain largely operational. Thon Buri and Phra Nakhon have continued functioning despite serious flooding elsewhere.

Eastern Bangkok bears worst flooding as hotels face cancellations and tourists consider other destinations

Instead, some of the worst inundation has been concentrated across eastern Bangkok. Affected districts include Bang Kapi and areas around Ramkhamhaeng. Srinakarin and On Nut have also experienced serious disruption.

On another front, parts of neighbouring Samut Prakan have been hit. However, comparatively fewer hotels are concentrated across the worst affected areas. That limits direct damage to Bangkok’s principal hotel districts.

Even so, the tourism impact can spread beyond areas physically underwater. Accessibility and overseas perceptions have become important concerns for the hotel industry. Travellers can also alter reservations shortly before arriving.

Mr Thienprasit said bookings can be changed or cancelled just two or three days beforehand. As a result, hotels remain exposed to last-minute cancellations while flooding continues. Prolonged disruption could also send travellers towards competing destinations.

Meanwhile, the Association of Thai Travel Agents expects Bangkok tourism to feel the impact for around 10 days. It has also warned that some international visitors could switch to other countries.

Golden Week raises tourism stakes as airports stay open and Bangkok keeps major transport routes running

Against that backdrop, the Golden Week period increases the immediate stakes. Chinese travellers considering Bangkok can still alter their itineraries. Hotels therefore face uncertainty even when their properties remain dry and accessible.

Yet THA has stressed that current conditions differ substantially from the catastrophic 2011 floods. Mr Thienprasit estimates that current flooding affects around 30–40% of Bangkok. Large parts of the capital remain operational.

Crucially, both major Bangkok airports remain open. Suvarnabhumi Airport continues operating despite the wider disruption. Don Mueang Airport is also operating.

Elsewhere, several important transport arteries remain usable. Vibhavadi Rangsit Road continues providing access, while Bangkok’s motorway network remains operational. Expressways towards central areas are also functioning.

Consequently, large sections of Bangkok remain accessible despite severe flooding in other districts. THA believes conditions could also improve relatively quickly if heavy rainfall subsides.

Unlike some provincial floods, Bangkok inundation generally does not leave large deposits of heavy mud. Affected areas can therefore recover faster after water levels fall. THA believes flooded locations could drain within seven days under favourable conditions.

Hotel industry seeks clearer flood messaging as economic losses climb towards ฿17 billion nationwide

In response, the hotel industry wants clearer information reaching international markets. THA has called for accurate communication from the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration. It also wants the Tourism Authority of Thailand involved.

Specifically, travellers need accurate information about flooded districts and accessible areas. They also need information about usable roads and functioning tourism zones. THA wants to prevent localised flooding from being interpreted as citywide paralysis.

Beyond tourism, however, the financial losses are already mounting. Kasikorn Research Centre initially estimates damage between ฿7 billion and ฿17 billion. That represents approximately 0.03–0.11% of gross domestic product.

Importantly, those calculations assume disruption lasting only three to seven days. Continued flooding could therefore drive losses considerably higher. The scale depends partly on whether disruption spreads further through the economy.

For example, additional manufacturing stoppages would increase the cost. Problems affecting logistics would add further losses. Disruption to important supply chains could also broaden the damage.

Economist puts nationwide flood losses at up to ฿33.8 billion as household finances come under strain

Other estimates are already substantially higher. Rangsit University economist Aat Pisanwanich estimates nationwide losses between ฿16.9 billion and ฿33.8 billion. His central scenario places Bangkok’s losses at approximately ฿10.6 billion.

By comparison, his calculations suggest a 0.36–0.73% impact on third-quarter GDP. However, those figures cover a different measurement period from annual GDP estimates. They therefore cannot be compared directly.

More broadly, the headline figures do not capture every financial consequence. Many households entered the flooding with already stretched finances. Thailand’s economic growth was also expected at only around 2–2.5%.

For workers dependent on daily income, disruption can immediately reduce earnings. Flooded roads can prevent employees from reaching workplaces. Closed businesses can also eliminate income from the first day.

Nevertheless, household loan repayments continue. Rent and other fixed expenses also remain payable. The financial squeeze can therefore begin before homes or businesses suffer direct physical damage.

Small businesses and indebted households face mounting pressure from successive economic shocks

Small companies face similar pressures. Sales can disappear while wages, loans and operating costs remain. Even short disruptions can consequently weaken businesses already operating with limited financial buffers.

Likewise, Standard Chartered economist Tim Leelahaphan has highlighted risks facing vulnerable households. He warned that headline flood-loss estimates could conceal heavier financial consequences for these groups.

Bangkok and surrounding provinces account for roughly half of Thailand’s economic output. Meanwhile, high household debt limits the ability of many families to absorb sudden income losses.

This is the core of Ms Chayawadee’s warning. The BOT is looking beyond damaged homes, roads and businesses. It is examining borrowers already weakened before the latest crisis.

Successive economic shocks have eroded household and small-business balance sheets. The latest flooding has now added another disruption. For heavily indebted borrowers, lost income can compound existing financial pressure.

BOT urges banks to assist flood-hit borrowers as public debt and reconstruction costs add fiscal pressure

As part of its response, the BOT is encouraging financial institutions to assist affected borrowers. Measures can include temporary principal and interest payment holidays. Banks can also reduce monthly instalments.

Additionally, lenders can provide extra liquidity to small and medium-sized businesses. Such measures are aimed at borrowers directly affected by the flooding and associated economic disruption.

On the fiscal side, the floods could create further demands on government finances. Public debt is already approaching the government’s ceiling of 70% of GDP. Flood relief and reconstruction require additional expenditure.

Infrastructure damaged by flooding also requires repairs. Repeated flood events can therefore create recurring fiscal costs. Thailand simultaneously faces longer-term welfare and healthcare expenditure from an ageing population.

For the immediate economy, much now depends on the duration of the flooding. A shorter disruption would contain some direct losses. Businesses could reopen, while transport networks could return to normal.

Flooding threatens tourism, supply chains and incomes despite Bangkok hotels and airports staying open

Similarly, tourism confidence could recover relatively quickly once conditions improve. However, each additional day increases pressure on businesses unable to operate. Workers affected by closures also lose more income.

Furthermore, extended flooding raises the risk of deeper logistics problems. Manufacturing could face further supply-chain disruption. Retail and wholesale businesses could also experience longer interruptions.

For Bangkok’s hotel industry, the coming days are particularly important. Most major hotels remain open and the airports are operating. Central tourism districts also remain largely accessible.

Despite that, tourists do not need to encounter floodwater before cancelling. Reservations can be changed thousands of kilometres away after travellers see images of inundated roads.

Thus, economic damage can spread far beyond districts actually covered by floodwater. Golden Week has intensified that risk at a crucial moment for Chinese travel.

THA measures booking cancellations as BOT tracks wider losses spreading across commerce and manufacturing

The THA is now trying to determine how widely cancellations and postponements have spread. Its preliminary occupancy forecast already points towards a year-on-year decline.

In contrast, the BOT is examining the broader consequences across the economy. Transport disruption is affecting commerce, while retailers and wholesalers are losing activity. Construction has also been interrupted.

Supply-chain problems have reached manufacturing plants. Hotels are losing reservations, while affected workers can lose income. Small businesses are also losing revenue while fixed costs continue.

Taken together, economists are already putting immediate losses into billions of baht. Yet the final cost cannot be established while flooding continues. Prolonged disruption could push losses higher and widen the number of affected sectors.

For Ms Chayawadee, however, one immediate financial risk is already evident. Vulnerable households and small businesses entered the floods after successive economic shocks. Their balance sheets had already weakened.

Business leaders pile pressure on Thai Airways over vital air cargo artery for the kingdom’s exports to the world

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Joseph Anthony is an expat from Ireland who has lived in Thailand for the last decade. He has worked extensively in the media including editorial positions in Ireland and Thailand. He is focused on economic and business stories in Thailand as well as the expat lifestyle.

All posts by Joseph O' Connor

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2026年10月2日上午11:33

经济、生活、媒体、政治、泰国

泰国洪灾危机正对整体经济造成冲击，泰国央行警告称，负债累累的家庭和小企业面临的压力日益增大。在中国黄金周期间，曼谷的酒店预订量已经开始下降，供应链中断也导致丰田四家工厂停产。经济学家估计，全国损失可能高达338亿泰铢。然而，主要酒店、机场和曼谷市中心仍然开放，这引发了业内人士的担忧：洪水造成的严重后果可能会让游客流失。由于接连不断的冲击已经削弱了家庭财务状况，这场洪灾正迅速演变成一场远超街道本身的经济危机。

泰国央行行长柴阿南警告称，洪水正在重创负债家庭和小企业，全国经济损失可能高达338亿泰铢。（来源：《民族报》）

泰国洪灾危机对本已面临严峻财务压力的脆弱家庭和小企业经济造成了沉重打击。泰国央行警告称，即使洪水退去，灾情仍可能持续。央行尤其关注那些已因反复的经济冲击而处境艰难的借款人。

企业关系助理行长兼博茨瓦纳银行发言人查亚瓦迪·柴-阿南特强调了借款人面临的日益增长的压力。她表示，在最近的洪灾到来之前，接连不断的冲击已经削弱了借款人的资产负债表。

“小企业和弱势群体可能面临更重的债务负担，”查亚瓦迪女士警告说。“接连不断的经济冲击正在削弱他们的资产负债表。这令人十分担忧。”

洪水灾害蔓延至曼谷各大关键行业，数十亿美元的经济损失开始累积。

目前，洪水对经济活动的影响已远远超出曼谷被淹没的道路。服务业、交通运输业、零售业、批发业、建筑业和货物配送业均受到影响。由于游客重新考虑出行计划，酒店预订也被取消或推迟。

与此同时，经济学家们正在估算损失高达数十亿泰铢。由于曼谷及其他府的洪水仍在持续，最终的经济损失尚不明朗。不过，洪水的影响已在各主要行业日益显现。

服务业与运输和货物配送业一样遭受了直接冲击。零售商和批发商也受到了影响，建筑活动也受到影响。最初，制造业受到的影响相对较小。

最近，供应链中断导致丰田四家工厂暂时停产。这一事态发展使得经济影响范围扩大到直接受洪水影响的企业和社区之外。

此外，泰国央行正密切关注家庭购买力，并密切关注旅游业信心，因为泰国即将进入2026年的最后几个月。这两个问题都可能对经济造成超出当前紧急情况范围的影响。

曼谷酒店取消预订数量上升，黄金周游客因洪水泛滥而重新考虑出行计划。

这种担忧如今也反映在了曼谷的酒店业。泰国酒店协会主席Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun证实，已有不少旅客取消或推迟了预订。泰国酒店协会已开始对会员进行调查，以了解有多少旅客改变了行程安排。

目前，完整的调查结果尚未公布。不过，泰国酒店协会预计曼谷酒店入住率在9月和10月将有所下降，预计同比降幅将低于10%。

值得注意的是，此次洪灾发生在国际旅游业的重要时期。中国的国庆黄金周从10月1日开始。因此，此次洪灾恰逢中国游客出境旅游旺季。

与此同时，泰国住房协会也担心海外潜在游客会看到这样的画面。曼谷道路被淹的照片可能会影响人们对整个首都状况的认知。但实际受到的影响则更为集中。

曼谷大部分主要酒店并未直接遭受洪水侵袭。中央商务区和重要旅游区也基本保持正常运营。尽管其他地区遭受严重洪灾，吞武里府和帕那空府仍继续正常运转。

曼谷东部地区洪灾最为严重，酒店面临取消预订，游客考虑其他旅游目的地。

相反，曼谷东部地区受灾最为严重。受灾地区包括邦卡皮区和兰甘亨区周边地区。诗纳卡林区和翁努区也遭受了严重的破坏。

另一方面，邻近的北榄府部分地区也受到波及。然而，受灾最严重的地区集中的酒店相对较少，因此曼谷主要酒店区受到的直接损失有限。

即便如此，旅游业的影响可能远不止于实际被淹没的区域。交通便利性和海外游客的印象已成为酒店业关注的重要问题。此外，旅客还可以在抵达前不久更改预订。

蒂恩普拉西特先生表示，预订可以在入住前两三天进行更改或取消。因此，在洪水持续肆虐的情况下，酒店仍然面临着大量临时取消预订的风险。长时间的交通中断也可能导致游客转向其他目的地。

与此同时，泰国旅行社协会预计曼谷旅游业将受到约10天的影响。该协会还警告称，部分国际游客可能会转向其他国家。

黄金周期间，机场保持开放，曼谷主要交通线路也保持畅通，旅游业面临更高风险。

在此背景下，黄金周期间的风险进一步增加。计划前往曼谷的中国游客仍有可能更改行程。因此，即使酒店目前没有出现任何异常情况，仍面临着不确定性。

然而，THA强调，目前的情况与2011年的灾难性洪灾有显著不同。Thienprasit先生估计，目前曼谷约有30%至40%的地区受到洪水影响。首都的大部分地区仍能正常运转。

至关重要的是，曼谷两大机场均保持开放。尽管受到大范围干扰，素万那普机场仍在继续运营。廊曼机场也正常运作。

此外，多条重要交通干道仍可通行。维帕瓦迪兰实路继续提供交通便利，曼谷高速公路网也保持畅通。通往市中心的快速路也正常通行。

因此，尽管曼谷其他地区遭遇严重洪灾，但大部分地区仍然可以通行。泰国住房和城市事务部（THA）认为，如果强降雨停止，情况也可能很快得到改善。

与一些省份的洪水不同，曼谷的洪水通常不会留下大量淤泥。因此，受灾地区在水位下降后能够更快地恢复。泰国住房管理局（THA）认为，在有利条件下，被淹地区可以在七天内排干。

全国酒店业寻求更清晰的洪灾信息传递，经济损失已攀升至170亿泰铢

对此，酒店业希望国际市场能够获得更清晰的信息。泰国酒店协会（THA）已呼吁曼谷市政府提供准确的信息，并希望泰国旅游局参与其中。

具体而言，旅行者需要了解受灾地区和可通行区域的准确信息。他们还需要了解哪些道路可用以及旅游区是否正常运作。THA希望避免将局部洪水解读为全城瘫痪。

然而，除了旅游业之外，经济损失也已开始不断增加。开泰研究中心初步估计损失在70亿至170亿泰铢之间，约占国内生产总值的0.03%至0.11%。

重要的是，这些计算假设中断仅持续三到七天。因此，如果洪水持续，损失可能会大幅增加。损失规模部分取决于中断是否会进一步蔓延至整个经济领域。

例如，额外的生产停工将增加成本。影响物流的问题会造成进一步的损失。重要供应链的中断也可能扩大损害范围。

经济学家估计，全国洪灾损失高达338亿泰铢，家庭财务状况面临巨大压力。

其他机构的估计数字已经高得多。兰实大学经济学家阿特·皮桑瓦尼奇估计，全国损失将在169亿泰铢至338亿泰铢之间。他给出的核心预测是，曼谷的损失约为106亿泰铢。

相比之下，他的计算表明，这将对第三季度GDP产生0.36%至0.73%的影响。然而，这些数据所涵盖的统计周期与年度GDP估算值不同，因此不能直接比较。

更广泛地说，这些总体数据并不能反映所有经济后果。许多家庭在洪灾发生前财务状况就已经捉襟见肘。此外，泰国经济增长率预计也仅为2%至2.5%左右。

对于依赖每日收入的劳动者来说，业务中断会立即减少收入。道路被淹会阻碍员工上班。企业倒闭也会让员工从第一天起就失去收入。

然而，家庭贷款仍需偿还。租金和其他固定支出也照常支付。因此，即使房屋或企业尚未遭受直接的物质损害，财务困境也可能已经开始。

小企业和负债家庭面临着接连不断的经济冲击带来的越来越大的压力。

小型企业也面临着类似的压力。销售额可能骤降，而工资、贷款和运营成本却依然存在。即使是短暂的中断，也会进一步削弱那些原本财务缓冲就有限的企业。

同样，渣打银行经济学家蒂姆·利拉哈潘也强调了弱势家庭面临的风险。他警告说，目前公布的洪灾损失估算可能掩盖了这些群体面临的更为严重的经济损失。

曼谷及其周边府份约占泰国经济产出的一半。与此同时，高额的家庭债务限制了许多家庭应对突发收入损失的能力。

这正是查亚瓦迪女士警告的核心所在。孟加拉国银行的关注点不仅限于受损的房屋、道路和企业，它还在审查那些在最新危机爆发前就已经经济状况不佳的借款人。

接连不断的经济冲击已经侵蚀了家庭和小企业的资产负债表。最近的洪灾又雪上加霜。对于负债累累的借款人来说，收入损失会加剧现有的财务压力。

泰国央行敦促各银行向受洪水影响的借款人提供援助，因为公共债务和重建成本加剧了财政压力。

作为应对措施的一部分，泰国央行鼓励金融机构向受影响的借款人提供援助。措施包括暂时中止本金和利息的偿还。银行还可以降低每月还款额。

此外，贷款机构还可以向中小企业提供额外的流动资金。这些措施旨在帮助受洪水及相关经济混乱直接影响的借款人。

在财政方面，洪水可能会给政府财政带来更大的压力。公共债务已接近政府设定的占GDP 70%的上限。救灾和重建需要额外的支出。

洪水造成的基础设施损坏也需要修复。因此，反复发生的洪水会造成持续的财政负担。与此同时，泰国还面临着人口老龄化带来的长期福利和医疗保健支出。

就眼下的经济形势而言，很大程度上取决于洪水持续时间。如果洪水持续时间较短，就能减少一些直接损失。企业可以重新开业，交通网络也能恢复正常。

尽管曼谷的酒店和机场仍然开放，但洪水仍威胁着旅游业、供应链和收入。

同样，一旦情况好转，旅游业信心可能会相对迅速地恢复。然而，每多停业一天，都会增加无法营业的企业的压力。受停业影响的工人也会损失更多收入。

此外，持续的洪水会增加物流问题加剧的风险。制造业可能面临更严重的供应链中断。零售和批发业务也可能遭受更长时间的干扰。

对曼谷酒店业而言，未来几天至关重要。目前大多数主要酒店仍保持营业，机场也正常运营。中心旅游区也基本畅通无阻。

尽管如此，游客并不需要亲身经历洪水才会取消行程。即使远在千里之外，旅行者只要看到道路被淹的图片，就可能更改预订。

因此，经济损失可能远远超出实际受洪水侵袭的地区。黄金周期间，正值中国游客出行的关键时期，这加剧了这种风险。

THA 正在衡量预订取消情况，而 BOT 则追踪着蔓延至商业和制造业的更广泛损失。

汤普森酒店管理局（THA）目前正在努力确定取消和延期活动的范围有多广。其初步入住率预测已经显示，入住率将同比下降。

相比之下，BOT正在研究对整个经济的更广泛影响。交通中断正在影响商业活动，零售商和批发商的业务也受到影响。建筑业也受到了干扰。

供应链问题已经波及到制造工厂。酒店预订量下降，工人收入减少。小企业在固定成本持续支出的同时，也面临收入下滑的困境。

综合来看，经济学家估计目前的直接损失已达数十亿泰铢。然而，在洪水持续蔓延的情况下，最终损失尚无法确定。持续的灾害可能会使损失进一步增加，并扩大受影响的行业范围。

然而，对查亚瓦迪女士来说，一个迫在眉睫的财务风险已经显现。脆弱的家庭和小企业在接连遭受经济冲击后又陷入洪灾，它们的资产负债表早已捉襟见肘。

商界领袖们就泰国航空向世界出口这一至关重要的航空货运通道施加压力

周三，泰国航空公司在素万那普机场的危机进一步恶化，政府采取了更强硬的措施。

泰国航空公司承认其应对失误，素万那普机场公共区域被大量行李淹没。

泰国航空公司首席执行官就持续不断的洪水危机问题、缺陷推车和航班延误致歉。

由于危机仍未得到控制，素万那普机场的军事行动范围已扩大。

旅游部长指示处理因工作人员未按时上班而导致的机场行李严重短缺危机。

行李混乱导致疲惫不堪的工作人员不堪重负，泰国皇家陆军已部署至素万那普机场。

曼谷机场已开放并有航班运行，但素万那普机场出现延误和行李问题。

曼谷附近北榄府发生洪灾悲剧，一辆汽车被淹，两人触电身亡。

周日曼谷蓝线地铁发生火灾，损失比预想的要严重，工程师们连夜抢修。

泰国国家铁路公司对与上周六曼谷火车事故有关的私人司机提起诉讼。

警方将对58个铁路道口进行审查，此前一起火车与巴士相撞事故造成8人死亡。火车司机曾有吸毒史。

因与乍都乍周末市场大楼倒塌事件有关的被捕男子现在告诉警方，他是中国国家雇员。

约瑟夫·安东尼是一位来自爱尔兰的侨民，过去十年一直居住在泰国。他曾在爱尔兰和泰国的媒体行业担任过编辑职务，拥有丰富的媒体从业经验。他主要关注泰国的经济和商业新闻，以及侨民的生活方式。

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