Flávio Bolsonaro inherited his father’s right-wing movement. Can he win Brazil’s presidency?

Sergio Lima/AFP/Getty Images

Standing atop a truck equipped with loudspeakers on Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana Beach, Brazilian senator Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his campaign , addressing the inevitable comparison with the man whose footsteps he is trying to follow.

“I know you are looking at me right now and thinking of someone,” he told thousands of supporters gathered on August 16 in the city where his political career began. “I know I look like him, but it is difficult to compare Pelé’s son to Pelé.”

The reference to Brazil’s most famous soccer player drew laughter, but it captured the challenge at the heart of Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy: how to capitalize on his similarities with his father, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, while convincing voters that a different Bolsonaro can inherit the movement built around him.

The physical resemblance is obvious. Flávio shares his father’s light-colored eyes, dark hair, defined features and some of his gestures when speaking. But as he campaigns to succeed the man who transformed Brazil’s right, he has struggled to connect with voters in the same way his father did.

That is why, for much of the rally, escaping Jair Bolsonaro’s shadow did not even seem to be the goal.

Flávio played recordings of the former president, promised to continue his legacy and said he had “humbly” accepted the mission his father had entrusted to him.

Convicted of more than 27 years in prison for plotting a coup after his 2022 electoral defeat, Jair Bolsonaro has entrusted Flávio with continuing his legacy, while maintaining his innocence and hoping that his son’s path to the presidential palace could also lead to his own freedom.

At 45, Flávio now faces a task that even his father could not accomplish: defeating Brazil’s leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who, at nearly 81, is seeking a fourth and likely final term.

But just days before the first round, both candidates face controversies — corruption allegations, family disputes and a growing institutional crisis involving the Supreme Federal Court and figures across the establishment — while polls show an increasingly close race.

Gledston Tavares/AFP/Getty Images

Flávio Nantes Bolsonaro was born in 1981 and is the eldest of Jair Bolsonaro’s five children. A lawyer by profession, he was elected to the Rio de Janeiro state legislature at just 21, long before his father’s rise turned the family name into one of Brazil’s most powerful political brands.

Flávio served four terms before reaching the Senate in 2018, the same election in which his father won the presidency.

He built his political career in Rio de Janeiro — a state with a long history of organized crime and violence — focusing primarily on hard-line public security policies and defending police officers and other security forces.

However, Flávio is perceived as a more moderate and conciliatory Bolsonaro. “During the various crises of Jair Bolsonaro’s government, Flávio appeared to be the family member with some willingness to engage in dialogue,” said Octávio Amorim Neto, a political scientist and professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

During his father’s repeated clashes with Congress and the Supreme Federal Court, Flávio cultivated relationships with lawmakers and acted as an informal bridge between his father and the Senate.

“Flávio has more tact than his father,” said Gilson Machado, Jair Bolsonaro’s former tourism minister, who has known the former president since the 1990s and Flávio for more than a decade. “He listens more.”

Machado, a longtime Bolsonaro ally, was arrested on June 13, 2025 as part of an investigation into whether he had attempted to help Bolsonaro’s former chief of staff and a key witness in the coup-plot case obtain a Portuguese passport and leave Brazil. Machado denied the allegations, and his pretrial detention was revoked that same day, although he still faces restrictions, including the retention of his passport.

Machado says he often spends vacations with Flávio in northeastern Brazil and that the senator loves fishing and is passionate about diving. “He is a fearless diver. He goes down to 30 meters (90 feet). I had never seen anything like it,” he said.

Machado also offered a glimpse into one of the main differences between father and son: Jair’s more reserved nature compared with Flávio’s more openly affectionate personality.

“Bolsonaro has never kissed his children,” he said. “Flávio, on the other hand, kisses his son; he has kissed his father. It is a different style.”

But a more moderate personal style does not amount to a more moderate political project.

In a 2007 speech, Flávio defended the militias that were expanding their control over parts of Rio at the time, describing them as a “new way of doing police work” that could provide security where the state had failed, in what is widely regarded as one of the most controversial episodes of his career.

“As a state lawmaker, he awarded medals to militia members,” Amorim Neto said. “That is one of the major stains on his record, even in the eyes of the right.”

A hard-line approach to crime is also a central element of his father’s movement, and Flávio has taken it to the national stage. His campaign puts security front and center, with promises to lower the age of criminal responsibility and toughen the response to violent crime. In March, he called for Brazil’s two largest criminal groups to be designated as terrorist organizations and then traveled to the United States in May to make the request directly to Trump , a measure rejected by Lula and the left, who consider it a threat to Brazilian sovereignty.

Ricardo Moraes/Reuters

When the United States announced that the groups would be designated as terrorist organizations, Bolsonaro thanked Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for what he described as a response to his request.

The message connects with voters’ main concern: A Quaest poll in August showed that 33% of Brazilians considered violence the country’s main problem, more than twice the percentage who mentioned the economy.

After Jair’s conviction left him out of the race, other prominent names emerged to take over the leadership of the right. But the former president pushed to keep the legacy within his own surname.

“Politics is the Bolsonaro family business,” Amorim Neto said, and two of the brothers with the longest political careers thus emerged as the leading contenders.

Eduardo Bolsonaro had built the strongest international profile among the brothers, cultivating ties with the MAGA movement in the United States and lobbying the Trump administration to pressure Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court over his father’s case. In July 2025, Trump called the case against Jair Bolsonaro a “witch hunt” and announced 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Nearly a year later, Brazil’s courts convicted Eduardo of coercion and sentenced him to four years and two months in prison. He remains in the US and risks being arrested if he returns to Brazil.

“That effectively left Flávio and his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, as the leading contenders to inherit the family’s political leadership,” Amorim Neto said.

For the political scientist, Jair Bolsonaro’s final decision was to favor his own bloodline. “He ended up choosing the eldest son,” he said.

Adriano Machado/Reuters

But the transition was not easy.

Flávio publicly clashed with his stepmother, the former first lady, a powerful figure on Brazil’s right.

A dispute over party alliances erupted publicly in June , when Michelle posted videos accusing her stepson of humiliating her politically during a phone call. The rift was particularly delicate because Michelle had built a strong network among conservative women and evangelical Christians, key constituencies for Flávio.

Flávio apologized, and the two publicly reconciled in July after weeks of efforts by party leaders to contain the dispute. By September, Michelle had returned to the campaign to support her stepson, asking her network of female supporters to help elect him.

Machado told CNN that their relationship is now “as good as it can possibly be.”

But the episode exposed a fragmented right and a divided Liberal Party, Bolsonaro’s political base.

The campaign is also facing other problems. A sweeping corruption investigation into the bankrupt private Brazilian bank, Banco Master, has become a backdrop to the election, reaching politicians across Brazil’s establishment, including the Supreme Federal Court, Lula and Flávio himself.

For Flávio, the scandal initially presented an opportunity to revive one of Bolsonarismo’s longest-running battles: its confrontation with the Supreme Federal Court, and particularly with Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw key investigations that ultimately led to Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction. Bolsonaro supporters have since portrayed Moraes as an ally of Lula, although he was not appointed by Lula and does not belong to his party.

Investigators uncovered a multimillion-dollar contract between Banco Master and a law firm owned by Moraes’ wife, as well as compromising messages that the bank’s president sent to a contact he had saved under Moraes’ name, according to CNN Brasil . It has not been established that Moraes received or responded to the messages, but the revelations gave Bolsonaro’s campaign enough ammunition to return to one of its most familiar arguments: that the left, and anyone associated with it, is corrupt.

“Today we have our No. 10 on the campaign trail,” Machado told CNN. “It is Alexandre de Moraes.”

Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

Trump’s social media company is suing a Brazilian Supreme Court justice involved in Bolsonaro’s indictment

CNN has reached out to Moraes for comment. He has previously denied receiving messages attributed to him, calling the association of his name with them a “false inference” aimed at attacking the Supreme Court.

Luciano Da Ros, a political scientist specializing in corruption and Brazil’s judicial system, said that for the Bolsonaro base, interest in Moraes’ possible involvement goes beyond the election.

“They hope this will eventually make it possible to overturn the conviction or invalidate his actions in the case on procedural grounds,” he said.

But in recent days, the scandal has also reached Flávio.

The Supreme Federal Court opened an investigation in July into the senator over alleged corruption and money laundering linked to Banco Master’s financing of “Dark Horse,” a film about Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio has denied wrongdoing and said his ties to Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master, were related to the film.

If elected, clashes with the judiciary are unlikely to end. Flávio has promised to seek a broad amnesty for his father and others convicted over the coup attempt, and to use the presidential pardon power if Congress does not act.

“That would mean another enormous crisis with the Supreme Federal Court,” Amorim Neto said.

A Flávio government is also expected to maintain much of his father’s international alignment, particularly with the US.

“Bolsonarismo is intimately linked to MAGA and Trumpism,” Amorim Neto said, arguing that the Bolsonaro family has positioned itself as a follower of Trump’s political movement.

But that closeness to Trump has also exposed a contradiction in Bolsonarismo’s nationalist message.

“If you are a nationalist or a patriot, first and foremost you put the national interest ahead, not subordination to the leader of the world’s superpower,” Amorim Neto said. “And Brazilian voters see it, they perceive it, and most of them are against it, although Bolsonaro supporters among the electorate back several of Trump’s actions.”

That contradiction has emerged repeatedly: in Trump’s tariffs on Brazilian products over the judicial proceedings against Jair Bolsonaro, which Eduardo Bolsonaro had lobbied for; in Flávio’s push for the US to designate Brazil’s largest criminal groups as terrorist organizations; and in debates over US interest in the country’s critical mineral resources.

That marks a clear difference between Bolsonaro and Lula: While Flávio has aligned himself with Trump and a growing network of conservative leaders in Latin America, Lula has emphasized Brazil’s sovereignty and interests while deepening ties with China.

Still, those contradictions have not prevented Flávio from consolidating much of the loyal electorate that backed his father.

Brazil remains deeply polarized, and the political distribution has changed little since 2022: Flávio draws some of his strongest support from evangelical Christians and higher-income voters, while Lula remains stronger among lower-income Brazilians and Catholics. In a Datafolha poll published in September, Flávio led Lula by nearly two to one among evangelical voters, while Lula maintained a smaller lead among Catholics, 43% to 32%.

His emphasis on fighting crime, his anti-left agenda and his confrontations with the Supreme Federal Court and Brazil’s political establishment directly appeal to issues that have mobilized Bolsonaro’s base for years. According to a Quaest poll published in September , nearly all voters who identify as Bolsonaro supporters now back Flávio, suggesting that the movement’s political identity has been transferred even without its founder on the ballot.

That inherited support has helped transform a candidacy that initially struggled to escape a turbulent campaign and the shadow of his father into a highly competitive race with Lula.

At his first campaign rally in Copacabana, Flávio promised to continue his father’s legacy. And while he may not be a carbon copy of his father, that could be enough to win this October.

Sergio Lima/AFP/Getty Images

在里约热内卢科帕卡巴纳海滩，巴西参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗站在一辆装有扬声器的卡车上，正式启动了他的竞选活动，并谈到了人们不可避免地将他与他试图追随的那个人进行比较。

“我知道你们现在看着我，心里想着某个人，”8月16日，在他政治生涯起步的城市，他对聚集在那里的数千名支持者说。“我知道我长得像他，但很难把贝利的儿子和贝利本人相提并论。”

提到巴西最著名的足球运动员，引得众人发笑，但也抓住了博尔索纳罗总统竞选的核心挑战：如何利用他与父亲、前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的相似之处，同时说服选民，一个不同的博尔索纳罗能够继承围绕他建立起来的运动。

两人外貌上的相似之处显而易见。弗拉维奥继承了父亲浅色的眼睛、深色的头发、轮廓分明的五官，以及一些说话时的手势。然而，在他竞选接替这位改变了巴西右翼格局的人物时，他却难以像父亲那样与选民建立联系。

正因如此，在集会的大部分时间里，摆脱雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的阴影似乎都不是目标。

弗拉维奥播放了这位前总统的录音，承诺将继续他的事业，并表示他“谦卑地”接受了父亲托付给他的使命。

2022 年大选失败后，因策划政变而被判处 27 年以上监禁的雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗，将继承其政治遗产的重任托付给了弗拉维奥，同时坚称自己无罪，并希望儿子通往总统府的道路也能最终让他获得自由。

现年 45 岁的弗拉维奥面临着一项连他父亲都未能完成的任务：击败巴西左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦，后者已近 81 岁高龄，正在寻求第四个也是很可能是最后一个任期。

但在第一轮投票前几天，两位候选人都面临着争议——腐败指控、家庭纠纷以及涉及联邦最高法院和整个建制派人士的日益严重的制度危机——而民调显示，选情越来越胶着。

Gledston Tavares/AFP/Getty Images

弗拉维奥·南特斯·博尔索纳罗出生于1981年，是雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗五个孩子中的老大。他是一名律师，年仅21岁就当选为里约热内卢州议员，远早于他父亲的崛起，当时博尔索纳罗家族的名字还不是巴西最有影响力的政治品牌之一。

弗拉维奥在 2018 年当选参议员之前，曾担任过四届参议员，而他的父亲也在同年当选总统。

他在里约热内卢——一个有着悠久有组织犯罪和暴力历史的州——建立了自己的政治生涯，主要关注强硬的公共安全政策，并为警察和其他安全部队辩护。

然而，弗拉维奥被认为是一位更为温和、更愿意妥协的博索纳罗。“在雅伊尔·博索纳罗政府经历的各种危机中，弗拉维奥似乎是家族中唯一一位愿意参与对话的成员，”瓦加斯基金会政治学家兼教授奥克塔维奥·阿莫林·内托说道。

在他父亲与国会和联邦最高法院多次发生冲突期间，弗拉维奥与立法者建立了关系，并在他父亲和参议院之间充当了非正式的桥梁。

“弗拉维奥比他父亲更有处事技巧，”吉尔森·马查多说道。他是雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的前旅游部长，自上世纪90年代就认识这位前总统，与弗拉维奥相识也超过十年。“他更善于倾听。”

马查多是博索纳罗的长期盟友，他于2025年6月13日被捕，原因是调查他是否曾试图帮助博索纳罗的前幕僚长、政变阴谋案的关键证人获得葡萄牙护照并离开巴西。马查多否认了这些指控，他的审前拘留令于当日被撤销，但他仍然面临一些限制，包括护照被扣留。

马查多说他经常和弗拉维奥一起在巴西东北部度假，这位参议员热爱钓鱼，也酷爱潜水。“他是个无所畏惧的潜水员。他能潜到30米（90英尺）深。我以前从未见过这样的人，”他说。

马查多还透露了父子二人之间的一个主要区别：贾伊尔性格比较内敛，而弗拉维奥则性格比较外向热情。

“博索纳罗从未亲吻过他的孩子，”他说。“而弗拉维奥则会亲吻他的儿子，也亲吻过他的父亲。这是不同的风格。”

但较为温和的个人风格并不意味着更为温和的政治纲领。

2007 年，弗拉维奥在一次演讲中为当时正在扩大对里约部分地区控制的民兵辩护，称他们是“一种新的警务工作方式”，可以在国家失职的地方提供安全保障。这被广泛认为是他职业生涯中最具争议的事件之一。

阿莫林·内托说：“作为一名州议员，他曾向民兵成员颁发奖章。即使在右翼人士眼中，这也是他政绩上的一大污点。”

对犯罪采取强硬立场也是他父亲运动的核心要素，而弗拉维奥则将其推向了全国舞台。他的竞选活动将安全置于首位，承诺降低刑事责任年龄，并加大对暴力犯罪的打击力度。今年3月，他呼吁将巴西最大的两个犯罪集团列为恐怖组织，随后于5月前往美国，直接向特朗普提出这一要求。卢拉和左翼人士拒绝了这一提议，认为这会威胁巴西主权。

里卡多·莫赖斯/路透社

当美国宣布将这些组织列为恐怖组织时，博索纳罗感谢特朗普和国务卿马可·卢比奥，称这是对他请求的回应。

这一信息与选民的主要关切相契合：Quaest 在 8 月份进行的一项民意调查显示，33% 的巴西人认为暴力是该国的主要问题，这一比例是提到经济问题的两倍多。

贾伊尔被定罪后退出竞选，其他一些知名人士涌现出来，接管了右翼的领导权。但这位前总统力图将政治遗产保留在自己的姓氏之下。

“政治是博索纳罗家族的生意，”阿莫林·内托说道，因此，两位政治生涯最长的兄弟成为了领先的竞争者。

在三兄弟中，爱德华多·博索纳罗的国际影响力最大，他与美国的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动建立了密切联系，并游说特朗普政府向巴西联邦最高法院施压，要求其就其父的案件进行裁决。2025年7月，特朗普称针对雅伊尔·博索纳罗的案件是“政治迫害”，并宣布对巴西进口商品加征50%的关税。近一年后，巴西法院以胁迫罪判处爱德华多四年零两个月监禁。他目前仍留在美国，如果返回巴西，将面临被捕的风险。

“这实际上让弗拉维奥和他的继母、前第一夫人米歇尔·博尔索纳罗成为继承家族政治领导权的领跑者，”阿莫林·内托说。

这位政治学家认为，雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗最终的决定是偏袒自己的血脉。“他最终选择了长子，”他说。

阿德里亚诺·马查多/路透社

但转型并不容易。

弗拉维奥与他的继母，也就是巴西右翼的一位强大人物——前第一夫人——公开发生冲突。

六月，一场关于党派联盟的争端公开爆发。当时，米歇尔发布视频，指责她的继子在电话中羞辱了她。这场裂痕尤其棘手，因为米歇尔在保守派女性和福音派基督徒中建立了强大的关系网，而这些人正是弗拉维奥的关键支持者。

弗拉维奥道了歉，经过党内领导人数周的努力，两人于7月公开和解。到了9月，米歇尔重返竞选活动，支持她的继子，并请求她的女性支持者网络帮助他赢得选举。

马查多告诉 CNN，他们现在的关系“好到不能再好了”。

但这一事件暴露了右翼的分裂和自由党（博索纳罗的政治基础）的分裂。

这场竞选还面临其他问题。针对破产的巴西私营银行马斯特银行（Banco Master）的全面腐败调查已成为此次选举的背景，波及巴西政界各派政治人物，包括联邦最高法院、卢拉总统以及弗拉维奥本人。

对弗拉维奥而言，这场丑闻最初提供了一个机会，让他可以重燃博索纳罗主义持续时间最长的斗争之一：与联邦最高法院，特别是与大法官亚历山大·德·莫赖斯的对抗。莫赖斯曾主持关键调查，最终导致雅伊尔·博索纳罗被定罪。博索纳罗的支持者此后一直将莫赖斯描绘成卢拉的盟友，尽管他并非卢拉任命，也不属于卢拉所在的政党。

据CNN巴西频道报道，调查人员发现Banco Master银行与莫赖斯妻子拥有的一家律师事务所之间存在一份价值数百万美元的合同，此外，他们还发现了该银行总裁向一个以莫赖斯名义保存的联系人发送的敏感信息。目前尚不清楚莫赖斯是否收到或回复了这些信息，但这些披露为博索纳罗竞选团队提供了足够的弹药，使其得以重拾其最常用的论点之一：左翼及其相关人员都是腐败的。

“今天我们的竞选队伍中出现了第10号人物，”马查多告诉CNN，“他就是亚历山大·德·莫赖斯。”

Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

特朗普的社交媒体公司正在起诉一名参与博索纳罗起诉案的巴西最高法院法官。

CNN已联系莫赖斯寻求置评。他此前否认收到过据称是他发出的信息，称将他的名字与这些信息联系起来是旨在攻击最高法院的“虚假推断”。

专门研究腐败和巴西司法系统的政治学家卢西亚诺·达·罗斯表示，对于博尔索纳罗的支持者来说，对莫赖斯可能参与其中的兴趣远不止于选举本身。

他说：“他们希望这最终能够以程序性理由推翻定罪或使他在该案中的行为无效。”

但最近几天，这起丑闻也波及到了弗拉维奥。

今年7月，最高联邦法院对这位参议员展开调查，指控其涉嫌腐败和洗钱，这些行为与Banco Master银行资助拍摄关于雅伊尔·博索纳罗的电影《黑马》有关。弗拉维奥否认有任何不当行为，并表示他与Banco Master银行前老板丹尼尔·沃卡罗的关系与这部电影有关。

如果当选，他与司法部门的冲突恐怕难以结束。弗拉维奥承诺，他将寻求对其父亲和其他因政变未遂而被定罪的人实行大赦，如果国会不采取行动，他将动用总统特赦权。

“那将意味着与最高联邦法院之间又一次巨大的危机，”阿莫林·内托说。

人们预计弗拉维奥政府也将维持其父的大部分国际政策立场，特别是与美国的政策立场。

“博尔索纳罗主义与‘让美国再次伟大’运动和特朗普主义有着密切联系，”阿莫林·内托说道，他认为博尔索纳罗家族已经把自己定位为特朗普政治运动的追随者。

但与特朗普的这种密切关系也暴露了博尔索纳主义民族主义信息中的一个矛盾。

阿莫林·内托说：“如果你是民族主义者或爱国者，首先你会把国家利益放在首位，而不是屈从于世界超级大国的领导人。巴西选民看到了这一点，他们感受到了这一点，而且他们中的大多数人都反对这一点，尽管博索纳罗的支持者也支持特朗普的一些举措。”

这种矛盾反复出现：特朗普因针对雅伊尔·博索纳罗的司法程序而对巴西产品征收关税（爱德华多·博索纳罗曾游说支持该程序）；弗拉维奥推动美国将巴西最大的犯罪集团指定为恐怖组织；以及关于美国对该国关键矿产资源的兴趣的辩论。

这标志着博索纳罗和卢拉之间的一个明显区别：弗拉维奥与特朗普以及拉丁美洲日益壮大的保守派领导人网络结盟，而卢拉则强调巴西的主权和利益，同时深化与中国的关系。

尽管如此，这些矛盾并没有阻止弗拉维奥巩固其父亲的大部分忠实选民的支持。

巴西政坛依然高度两极分化，自2022年以来政治格局变化不大：弗拉维奥的主要支持者来自福音派基督徒和高收入选民，而卢拉则在低收入巴西民众和天主教徒中拥有更强的支持率。Datafolha 9月公布的一项民调显示，弗拉维奥在福音派选民中的支持率几乎是卢拉的两倍，而卢拉在天主教徒中的领先优势则较小，为43%比32%。

他强调打击犯罪、奉行反左翼政策，并与联邦最高法院和巴西政治建制派对抗，这些都直接迎合了博索纳罗多年来一直支持他的选民群体。根据Quaest民调机构9月份发布的一项民调显示，几乎所有自称博索纳罗支持者的选民现在都转而支持弗拉维奥，这表明即使博索纳罗的创始人没有参选，该运动的政治身份也已经转移。

这种继承而来的支持，帮助他从最初难以摆脱动荡竞选和父亲阴影的竞选，转变为与卢拉展开激烈竞争的候选人。

在科帕卡巴纳举行的首场竞选集会上，弗拉维奥承诺将继承父亲的遗志。虽然他可能并非父亲的翻版，但这或许足以让他赢得今年十月的大选。