Support for Merz plunges after CDU’s losses to Germany’s right and left

Chancellor Friedrich Merz hits a record low approval rating after his party suffered defeats in three state elections.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, is increasingly unpopular, but analysts say he has no clear successor [File: Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters]

Stuttgart, Germany – Minutes after the results of the first exit polls flashed across German screens, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) declared in a televised statement at the party’s headquarters that he was going nowhere.

“It’s a disaster,” he said of the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20. “What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience. I will muster them – as party chairman of the CDU and, above all, as chancellor of our country.”

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But pressure on Merz is mounting.

On Thursday, a survey by Germany’s public broadcaster ARD found that only one in 10 respondents were satisfied or very satisfied with his work. That is the lowest figure for any chancellor since the survey began in 1997.

His party crashed out of the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, failing to clear the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats – the first time this has happened since the Federal Republic of Germany was founded in 1949. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first with more than a third of the vote.

On the same day in Berlin’s state elections, the CDU suffered another major setback. It came second after The Left party, which won 25.7 percent of the vote. The Left now hopes to form a government in the capital although it will need coalition partners.

Just two weeks earlier, the CDU suffered another blow. The AfD won the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, receiving more than 40 percent of the vote, compared with 17 percent for the CDU.

No obvious successor

Merz could face a revolt within his own party, but removing him as chancellor would be considerably harder.

Under Germany’s Constitution, the Bundestag can replace a chancellor only by simultaneously electing a successor with an absolute majority.

Wolfgang Schroeder, a professor of political science at the University of Kassel, told Al Jazeera: “The CDU is in a situation where it can’t really get any further with Merz, but it also doesn’t know how things would work without him. There is no attractive replacement, so there is no alternative.”

A former chairman of the BlackRock investment company’s German supervisory board, Merz had long harboured ambitions of becoming chancellor but was sidelined by then-CDU leader Angela Merkel in the early 2000s. Merkel later became chancellor in 2005. Merz staged an unexpected comeback, finally taking office in May 2025.

Then-designated German Christian Democratic Party (CDU) parliamentary floor leader, Friedrich Merz (left) is pictured with then-party secretary general Angela Merkel (right). In the centre is lawmaker Rudolf Seiters before a meeting of the CDU parliamentary group in the Berlin Reichstag, February 18, 2000 [Reuters]

At the helm, Merz has drawn criticism for remarks about the country’s “Stadtbild” (cityscape), widely interpreted as a suggestion that there were too many refugees and migrants on the streets. The debate has resurfaced in recent days with prominent CDU figures returning to the issue after the party’s poor election results.

The AfD’s surge is but one factor behind the decline of Germany’s long-dominant conservative party, which has produced six chancellors in its history.

The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, govern Germany in coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The government is struggling amid the rising cost of living, deindustrialisation, crumbling infrastructure and a housing crisis in major cities.

Nils Diederich, a professor emeritus of political science at the Free University of Berlin and a former SPD member in the Bundestag, said Merz has failed to make a good impression but argued he is not the main reason for the CDU’s poor results.

“Overall, I see the coalition itself as the main problem,” he said. “The Social Democrats have worn themselves out in the coalition. They have lost their sense of direction and are putting the brakes on reforms. That, in turn, is dragging the CDU down with them.”

Schroeder told Al Jazeera: “It’s possible that the crisis surrounding the chancellor could develop into a fundamental crisis for the CDU and from there into a crisis for the coalition.”

In July, the German government announced a package of 34 measures, including reforms to pensions, taxation, bureaucracy and the labour market. Merz originally intended to push through his repeatedly promised reforms by the end of the year.

But the state elections have put the coalition parties under greater pressure to stake out their own positions.

To ease the burden on people in need of long-term care and to plug multibillion-euro deficits, the SPD is calling for a cap on care costs and for people with private health insurance to share the costs. The CDU firmly rejects both proposals on legal and financial grounds.

State premiers from both major parties and the SPD leadership want to retain the option of retiring without a pension reduction after 45 years of contributions, which they see as a reward for a lifetime of work. The conservative bloc’s business wing, however, insists that the provision be phased out.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of the SPD is planning new revenue measures to consolidate the budget but faces fierce resistance from CDU state premiers and conservative legislators determined to block any tax increases.

Schroeder warned that the coming months could be difficult.

“The CDU is caught in a dilemma. If Merz continues down the path of reforms that place a burden on society, the likelihood of cooperative governance with the SPD will diminish further. If he goes along with the course the SPD is proposing, pressure within the party will increase.”

Diederich said: “If the reforms fall through, then either Merz or the Social Democrats would have to act and let the coalition collapse.”

The next major election test will come in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, where voters elect a new parliament in April.

在所属政党在三场州选举中失利后，总理弗里德里希·默茨的支持率跌至历史新低。

德国总理、基督教民主联盟领导人弗里德里希·默茨的支持率日益下降，但分析人士表示，他目前还没有明确的继任者。[图片：Fabrizio Bensch/路透社]

德国斯图加特——第一批出口民调结果出现在德国电视屏幕上几分钟后，保守派基督教民主联盟（基民盟）总理弗里德里希·默茨在该党总部发表电视声明，宣布他不会离开。

“这是一场灾难，”他谈到9月20日梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州的州选举时说道。“现在需要做的，需要勇气、坚定和耐心。我将调动这些品质——作为基民盟主席，更重要的是，作为我们国家的总理。”

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但梅尔茨面临的压力越来越大。

周四，德国公共广播公司ARD的一项调查显示，只有十分之一的受访者对他的工作感到满意或非常满意。这是自1997年该调查开始以来，历任总理满意度最低的一次。

他的政党在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州议会选举中惨败，未能达到赢得席位所需的5%门槛——这是自1949年德意志联邦共和国成立以来首次发生这种情况。极右翼的德国另类选择党（AfD）以超过三分之一的得票率位居榜首。

同一天在柏林州选举中，基民盟遭遇又一次重大挫败。它位居第二，落后于左翼党，后者赢得了25.7%的选票。左翼党现在希望在首都组建政府，尽管它需要与其他政党结盟。

就在两周前，基民盟又遭受了一次打击。德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州选举中获胜，获得了超过40%的选票，而基民盟仅获得17%的选票。

没有明显的继任者

默茨可能会面临党内反叛，但要罢免他的总理职务则要困难得多。

根据德国宪法，联邦议院只有通过同时以绝对多数票选举继任者才能更换总理。

卡塞尔大学政治学教授沃尔夫冈·施罗德告诉半岛电视台：“基民盟现在的处境是，在默茨的领导下，他们已经无法再有任何进展，但他们也不知道没有默茨，事情会如何发展。没有合适的替代人选，所以他们别无选择。”

曾任贝莱德投资公司德国监事会主席的梅尔茨长期以来一直怀有成为总理的野心，但在2000年代初被当时的基民盟领导人安格拉·默克尔排挤出局。默克尔后来于2005年成为总理。梅尔茨出人意料地卷土重来，最终于2025年5月就任总理。

时任德国基督教民主联盟（基民盟）议会党团主席的弗里德里希·默茨（左）与时任基民盟总书记安格拉·默克尔（右）合影。中间是议员鲁道夫·塞特斯。照片拍摄于2000年2月18日，地点是柏林国会大厦，当时基民盟议会党团正在开会。[路透社]

默茨担任总理期间，因其关于德国“城市景观”（Stadtbild）的言论而饱受批评，这些言论被广泛解读为暗示街头难民和移民过多。近日，随着基民盟（CDU）在选举中表现不佳，一些重要人物再次就此问题展开讨论，这场争论也再次升温。

德国选择党的崛起只是导致德国长期占据主导地位的保守党衰落的因素之一，该党历史上曾产生过六位总理。

德国基督教民主联盟（CDU）及其巴伐利亚姊妹党基督教社会联盟与社会民主党（SPD）组成联合政府执政。面对生活成本上涨、去工业化、基础设施老化以及主要城市住房危机等诸多挑战，政府举步维艰。

柏林自由大学政治学荣誉教授、前德国联邦议院社民党成员尼尔斯·迪德里希表示，默茨未能给人留下好印象，但他认为默茨并非基民盟成绩不佳的主要原因。

“总的来说，我认为联合政府本身就是主要问题，”他说。“社会民主党人在联合政府中已经筋疲力尽。他们失去了方向，阻碍了改革。反过来，这也拖累了基民盟。”

施罗德告诉半岛电视台：“围绕总理的危机有可能演变成基民盟的根本危机，进而演变成执政联盟的危机。”

7月，德国政府宣布了一揽子34项措施，其中包括养老金、税收、官僚机构和劳动力市场方面的改革。默茨最初计划在年底前推行他多次承诺的改革。

但此次州选举给执政联盟各党派带来了更大的压力，迫使它们明确自身的立场。

为了减轻长期护理需求者的负担并弥补数十亿欧元的财政赤字，社民党呼吁对护理费用设定上限，并要求拥有私人医疗保险的人分担部分费用。基民盟则从法律和财政角度坚决反对这两项提议。

来自两大政党的州长和社民党领导层都希望保留缴费满45年后退休且养老金不减少的选项，他们认为这是对终身工作的奖励。然而，保守派联盟的商业派系则坚持逐步取消这项规定。

社民党财政部长拉尔斯·克林贝伊正计划采取新的收入措施来巩固预算，但却遭到基民盟各州州长和保守派议员的强烈反对，他们决心阻止任何增税措施。

施罗德警告说，未来几个月可能会很艰难。

“基民盟陷入两难境地。如果默茨继续推行会给社会带来负担的改革，那么与社民党合作执政的可能性将进一步降低。如果他接受社民党提出的方案，那么党内压力将会增加。”

迪德里希说：“如果改革失败，那么默茨或社会民主党就必须采取行动，让联合政府垮台。”

下一次重大选举考验将在德国人口最多的州北莱茵-威斯特法伦州举行，该州选民将于 4 月选举新一届议会。