Latino voters, souring on Trump, swing toward Democrats, new poll finds

Tamir Kalifa/The New York Times/Redux

Latino voters have deeply soured on President Donald Trump and his party, particularly on crucial economic issues, a new NBC/Telemundo poll released Sunday finds.

In the survey, Latino voters say by a 24-point margin, 59% to 35%, that they’d prefer to see the Democrats win control of Congress over the Republicans in November. That’s considerably broader than the 12-point Democratic margin among Latino voters at this point in 2024, although not as robust as the preference for Democratic victory ahead of the 2018 midterms.

The nation’s roughly 36 million Latino voters played a critical role in Trump’s 2024 victory, veering away from a history of overwhelmingly supporting Democratic candidates. Exit polls that year showed he garnered 46% of the Latino vote, compared with 51% for Democrat Kamala Harris.

In the NBC/Telemundo poll, just 27% of Latino voters approve of Trump’s job performance overall, with an even smaller 20% approving of his handling of the cost of living.

Although Latino voters give Trump a marginally higher 30% approval rating on immigration, two-thirds say that his administration has gone too far in its approach to immigration enforcement. Roughly one-quarter say they know someone who has been deported or detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the past two years.

A 62% majority of Latino voters rate the Republican Party as a whole negatively, up from 46% in September 2024. And they say, 48% to 27%, that they believe the Democratic Party would do a better job than the GOP of dealing with the economy.

Those findings track with a new CBS/YouGov poll , also released Sunday, in which Latino likely voters say, 60% to 39%, that they’d favor a Democratic candidate over a Republican in their House district.

Among the full electorate, that poll finds, likely voters favor the Democrats by a 9-point margin – similar to the results of ​other recent generic ballot polling​.

In the CBS poll, a 56% majority of registered voters say they think Trump is doing a worse job in his second term than he did in his first term, and 70% say they believe his policies have led to higher prices for food and groceries.

The NBC News/Telemundo poll was conducted in English and Spanish on September 21-28, using a mix of live telephone interviews and online surveys, among a national sample of 800 Latino registered voters. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted online September 30 to October 2 among a random national sample of 2,166 adults. Results among all adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points; it is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points among likely voters.

Tamir Kalifa/纽约时报/Redux

周日公布的一项新的 NBC/Telemundo 民调显示，拉丁裔选民对唐纳德·特朗普总统及其政党，尤其是在关键的经济问题上，已经深感失望。

调查显示，59%的拉丁裔选民表示，他们更希望民主党在11月的大选中击败共和党，赢得国会控制权，这一比例领先24个百分点（35%）。虽然这一比例远高于2024年同期拉丁裔选民对民主党12个百分点的支持率，但不如2018年中期选举前拉丁裔选民对民主党获胜的偏好那么强烈。

全国约3600万拉丁裔选民在特朗普2024年的胜选中发挥了关键作用，一改以往压倒性支持民主党候选人的局面。当年的出口民调显示，特朗普获得了46%的拉丁裔选票，而民主党候选人卡马拉·哈里斯的得票率为51%。

NBC/Telemundo 民调显示，只有 27% 的拉丁裔选民认可特朗普的整体工作表现，而认可他对生活成本处理方式的拉丁裔选民比例更低，仅为 20%。

尽管拉丁裔选民对特朗普在移民问题上的支持率略高，达到30%，但仍有三分之二的拉丁裔选民认为他的政府在移民执法方面做得太过火了。大约四分之一的拉丁裔选民表示，他们认识的人中有人在过去两年内被美国移民和海关执法局驱逐出境或拘留。

62%的拉丁裔选民对共和党整体评价为负面，高于2024年9月的46%。他们还表示，48%的拉丁裔选民认为民主党在处理经济问题上会比共和党做得更好，而持相反观点的拉丁裔选民仅占27%。

这些发现与周日发布的 CBS/YouGov 最新民调结果相符，该民调显示，60% 的拉丁裔选民表示，他们会在自己所在的众议院选区支持民主党候选人而不是共和党候选人，支持率仅为 39%。

该民调发现，在所有选民中，可能投票的选民以 9 个百分点的优势支持民主党——这与其他近期一般性投票民调的结果类似。

哥伦比亚广播公司民调显示，56%的注册选民认为特朗普在第二个任期内的表现比第一个任期更差，70%的选民认为他的政策导致食品和杂货价格上涨。

NBC新闻/Telemundo民调于9月21日至28日以英语和西班牙语进行，采用电话访谈和在线调查相结合的方式，对800名拉丁裔注册选民进行了全国性抽样调查。该民调结果的抽样误差为正负3.5个百分点。CBS新闻/YouGov民调于9月30日至10月2日在线进行，调查对象为2166名随机抽取的全国成年人。该民调结果的抽样误差为正负2.5个百分点；在可能投票的选民中，抽样误差为正负3.1个百分点。