The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026

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Nearly four weeks out from Election Day, the Senate battleground map is growing after signs of improvement for Democrats in several red-leaning states.

For the first time this year, CNN’s list of 9 Senate seats most likely to flip expands to 10 to include Kansas, which hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years . A new wave of polling also shows Democrats ahead or competitive in red states like Ohio, Alaska and Texas. All four states went for President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024.

To win the Senate majority, Democrats will need to pick up four Republican-held seats while defending three of their own, including Michigan.

Trump’s approval rating stands at 34%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls, amid high frustration over the economy and the war he launched against Iran. Democrats have also seen surging enthusiasm in special elections since Trump returned to office and early signs of elevated turnout in early voting.

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But they have also expressed unease over the massive amount of spending coming from the GOP. From the start of October through Election Day, Republicans are poised to outspend Democrats on advertising in eight of the ten most competitive Senate races, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, even though that advantage will be blunted by GOP-aligned outside groups having to spend more for ratings points than Democratic campaigns will.

Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The rankings are a snapshot of where the contests stand at this point and can shift as the midterm election season enters its final month.

North Carolina remains the state most likely to flip this year. Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has made affordability issues a centerpiece of his campaign, has a strong position over GOP nominee Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman and Trump ally vying to replace Sen. Thom Tillis.

An Elon University/YouGov poll released last month showed Cooper up 11 points over Whatley among likely voters. The Senate Leadership Fund, a key Republican outside spending group, is pausing its ad campaign there. Over the weekend, Republican outside groups cut more than $15 million from their remaining ad bookings, according to AdImpact data.

Still, Trump campaigned with Whatley in North Carolina last month in an effort to turn out his base in a state he won three times.

Ohio moves up two spots on this list, a reflection of the prime position of former Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Brown, who lost reelection to a fourth term by less than four points two years ago, has led GOP Sen. Jon Husted in most polls. A New York Times/Siena University poll of likely voters conducted at the end of September showed a tight race, Brown at 49% and Husted at 46%, within the survey’s margin of error. A Marist poll of registered voters in Ohio showed Brown up eight points over Husted last month.

In the NYT/Siena University poll, Husted’s favorability is at 37% while Brown is at 46%. That’s perhaps a reflection of Brown having a longer history with many Ohio voters than Husted, the former lieutenant governor appointed to take Vice President JD Vance’s seat last year.

Brown’s attacks on Husted over data centers – calling him “the face of data centers in Ohio” – have proven particularly potent as Republicans’ campaign arm in Washington has warned the issue is an “anchor” on Husted’s campaign.

Senate Democrats last week blocked a Husted-sponsored bill that would have recommended states take action on data center-related energy costs. And campaigning for Husted on Saturday, Trump defended data centers in southwestern Ohio, a reflection of the president’s longstanding opposition to pausing their construction.

In one buzzy digital spot released last week, Brown’s campaign also featured voters using expletives as they reacted to Husted’s past comments suggesting people living in poverty are “not very experienced at navigating the real world.” (Brown’s campaign is running an expletive-free version of the ad on TV.)

Republicans have pulled from a 2024 playbook to run ads attacking Brown on transgender politics, hoping that will move the needle in the state. Brown has responded with a TV spot of his own featuring voters talking about how Ohio already has laws addressing transgender policies and wanting candidates to focus on other issues.

One big question heading into the final stretch is whether GOP spending could help tighten this race. Republican groups are set to spend more than $80 million there from the start of October through Election Day while Democrats have allotted more than $50 million.

Alaska moves up two spots. The enormous and sparsely populated state is notoriously hard to poll, but a NYT/Siena poll of likely voters released Saturday found Democrat Mary Peltola up seven points over GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, 50 to 43%.

November’s contest will be determined by ranked-choice voting, and two others join Sen. Sullivan and Peltola on the ballot, including another GOP candidate named Dan Sullivan, a former schoolteacher. The possibility of voters confusing the same-name candidates has been a point of concern for Republicans ahead of November.

Democrats consider Peltola, a former congresswoman, as one of their strongest recruits, and she’s kept some national Democratic politicians like former Vice President Kamala Harris at arm’s length at a time when her opponent attempts to tie to her to “lower-48 liberals.”

Sullivan stood beside Trump in the Oval Office to tout a $54 billion investment from South Korea for the Alaska LNG pipeline project just weeks before the election. Peltola also moved quickly to praise the president’s announcement, saying she looks forward to “continuing this bipartisan work” with Trump.

Peltola’s demeanor towards aides and use of vulgar rhetoric came under scrutiny last month with a New York Times report detailing allegations of hostile behavior from some former aides. Her campaign denied any pattern of abusive pattern but acknowledged that Peltola has struggled at times to deal with the deaths of her mother and husband in 2023. Alaska’s other Republican senator, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, also came to her defense , noting Peltola’s personal struggles.

Maine drops two spots on our list. But the race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson remains extremely competitive as the two prepare to debate for the first time this week.

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted last month found Jackson slightly ahead of Collins among Maine likely voters – 51% to 47% - marking the first public survey showing the Democrat with the advantage in the state. Other recent polls, including a CNN survey conducted by SSRS and a NYT/Siena poll , have shown no clear leader.

Collins remains in a vulnerable position given Harris won her state by 7 points in 2024. Polling has indicated the contest hinges more on negative views of the Maine senator and Trump than it does on perceptions about her Democratic opponent.

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Democrats have hammered Collins for siding with Trump on consequential votes even as she’s struck out on her own on issues like tariffs and the Iran war. They have also seized on a ProPublica report alleging Collins’ office was involved in a pay-to-play scheme during her 2020 campaign. Collins has forcefully denied the allegations as a “political hit job.”

Collins has survived tough reelection battles in the past, and Republicans are leaning hard on reminding constituents of what she’s accomplished for the state. GOP groups also have spent millions on corruption ads of their own against Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, along with TV spots hammering the Democrat on tax policy .

Starting Tuesday, Collins and Jackson will have four debates over ten days.

Texas jumps two spots with Democrat James Talarico in a stronger-than-expected position and Republicans in the middle of a nine-figure rescue mission to save Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Democrats believe Talarico’s broader appeal, coupled with unease with Paxton’s scandals and the leftward shift of Latino voters, are giving the party its most realistic chance of turning Texas blue in three decades.

A NYT/Siena poll conducted over the final nine days of September found Talarico up six points over Paxton among likely voters – 51% to 45%. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll released last week showed no clear leader in the contest, with Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%.

Paxton needs loyal Republicans, including those who sided with Cornyn in May, to turn out in November. Trump is doing his part to help with the base, arguing Paxton is a conservative fighter while mocking his personal appearance. After holding an event in Denton on Thursday, Trump will return to San Antonio for a rally on Wednesday – his second trip to the state in a week.

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Over the final month, Republicans currently have a nearly 8-to-1 spending advantage in remaining ad reservations – about $70 million to $9 million. But like North Carolina, Republicans are relying on outside groups here and have made much of their bookings late in the cycle when ad inventories are stretched, imposing a premium on their spending.

Michigan shifts down three spots. The race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by 0.3%, remains one of the GOP’s few offensive opportunities this cycle.

A Marist poll of registered voters released last week showed El-Sayed up seven points over Rogers – 51% to 44%. But all polls of likely voters in September painted a different picture. with no clear leader in the contest, including the most recent survey released by Fox News on Wednesday.

The GOP spending advantage in this race is a major factor that could keep this race close up until Election Day. For the month of October, Republicans are set to spend more than $43 million while Democrats have reserved about $25 million. Republicans here have mounted a determined effort to paint El-Sayed as outside the mainstream, running in waves of ads calling the Democrat “dangerous” and “radical.” “He’s too extreme for Michigan, and your vote can stop him,” says an ad from a pro-Rogers group.

But frustration with Trump and concerns about the economy make the environment tough for Rogers in a state hit hard by tariffs and gas prices driven up by the Iran war.

According to the Fox News poll, 6 in 10 likely voters say they disapprove of the president’s performance, and 7 in 10 likely voters cite cost-of-living issues as extremely important. 39% are extremely concerned Rogers is too closely aligned to Trump while 36% said El-Sayed’s positions are too liberal, the same poll showed.

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The GOP nominee has sought to create some distance from the president on Iran, calling for the war’s swift end amid rising prices – even though he praised Trump’s decision to start the conflict mere months ago. Rogers’ strategy hinges on winning over disaffected Democrats and independents, while also turning out the president’s base supporters, who aren’t as reliable of voters in elections where Trump is not on the ballot.

El-Sayed, meanwhile, recently appeared with Harris to drum up support from Black voters, including those who feel a protest movement against the Biden administration’s policy towards Israel and Gaza hurt her presidential run in 2024.

Though he still faces some skepticism from Jewish Democrats, he also won the endorsement of Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, one of the most prominent Jewish officials in the state.

El-Sayed and Rogers will have their first debate on Thursday.

The competitive contest in Iowa moves up one spot.

Two polls of likely voters released in the last week show Democratic nominee Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson running neck-and-neck. A NYT/Siena poll of likely voters showed Hinson’s support at 48% and Turek at 47% while a Fox News poll found Turek at 49% and Hinson at 47%.

The agriculture-heavy state has felt the impacts of Trump policies like tariffs and the war in Iran, which have created price shocks for farm equipment, fertilizer and diesel. Trump’s approval rating in Iowa is at 42%, according to the Fox News poll, and more likely voters expressed concern about Hinson aligning too closely to Trump (52%) than that Turek’s position is too liberal (43%).

Turek has worked to link Hinson directly to Trump and recently ran an ad tying her votes to high gas prices in the state. Iowa is also home to three competitive House races and a gubernatorial contest where Democrats believe state auditor Rob Sand has a real chance of flipping the office blue and in turn helping Turek and others on the ballot.

Like Rogers in Michigan, Hinson has put some distance between herself and the Iran war, calling for its immediate end to drive down prices, and she’s criticized Trump’s moves on beef imports.

She also appeared alongside the president in the Oval Office as he announced plans for a $15 billion steel plant that could create 1,750 permanent jobs and thousands more temporary ones – though that promise has drawn some skepticism from Iowans from both parties.

Republicans are deploying additional money to the state to try to get Hinson across the finish line. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund upped their advertising spend by $20 million for the month of October, and Republicans are already on track to outspend Democrats in the state for the final weeks of the campaign.

New Hampshire has dropped two spots, but t he competitive contest between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and GOP former Sen. John Sununu is keeping Democrats on their toes.

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted in September showed Pappas up 8 points over Sununu with likely voters while a New York Times/Siena poll over roughly the same period revealed no clear leader in the contest.

Democrats ultimately believe their voters and independents will side with Pappas in a state Harris narrowly won in 2024, but Pappas has also warned that his party needs to prioritize the state more.

Sununu is a very familiar name for voters in New Hampshire, where his brother and father both served as governor. Democrats are spending significant time trying to remind voters which Sununu is on the ballot and attacking his lobbying background.

Republican strategists also feel Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is polling ahead in her reelection bid, could create a lift for Sununu in November. But New Hampshire voters are well-known for splitting their tickets, and the environment for Republicans is still tough.

Kansas appears on this list for the first time as it emerges as a new headache for the GOP in the midterms’ final stretch.

Adam Hamilton, a Republican-turned-Democrat megachurch pastor, has put the state in play.

A NYT/Siena poll of likely voters in Kansas showed a tied race between Hamilton and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who is seeking a second term. Marshall won his first Senate race in 2020 by double digits and Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Now, the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund will dedicate millions of dollars in advertising to defend Marshall.

Marshall, an OB-GYN, is facing blowback after reporting on his involvement in lawsuits over medical debt. Hamilton’s campaign has seized on the developments, drawing complaints from Marshall, who called the reporting a “hit job” during a debate last month and said he engaged in “common business practices.”

Marshall is also contending with the same Trump-related headwinds pressuring Republicans across the country, tariffs and fuel costs hitting Kansas and Iowa farmers alike. He’s taken some steps to distance himself from the president – releasing a statement last month chiding US Immigration and Customs Enforcement for “mass disruptions to local communities and businesses.”

Hamilton, meanwhile, is leaning into his partisan conversion to appeal to a broad set of voters, positioning himself apart from “dysfunction” in Washington. “We have to fix our broken politics by meeting in the middle,” he says in a top ad from last month. “It’s time for something different.”

Just last week, Mike Hayden became the second Republican former governor from the state to back Hamilton over Marshall. “I supported Roger Marshall before. But he has spent his time in the Senate putting party and politics over the people of Kansas,” Hayden wrote in an opinion piece . “It’s time for a change.”

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff looks well-positioned in his reelection bid against his GOP challenger, Rep. Mike Collins.

Through the end of June, Ossoff had out-raised Collins, $77 million to $6.5 million, according to FEC records for their principal campaign committees.

It’s also the only Senate race where Democrats are set to have a significant ad spending lead over the final month ($23 million to $16 million) as Republicans appear wary of committing major resources to the contest – a significant contrast to races in Ohio.

Strategists on both sides are closely watching the governor’s race in the state as Republicans hope their candidate Rick Jackson can offer a boost to Collins. But Ossoff is also working hard to lift Democrats across Georgia, including gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Many of these states seem like longshots but will still be on our radar until November.

Nebraska is another midwestern state feeling the economic strains of Trump’s war with Iran. The contest remains an uphill climb for independent candidate Dan Osborn, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2024, as he now challenges GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts.

South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham is running against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, for a full term after being appointed to her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat. One thing to watch here is how much GOP spending comes into the state in the final stretch. A Democrat hasn’t won a South Carolina Senate seat in nearly three decades.

Mississippi Democratic Senate nominee Scott Colom has attracted a lot of attention in his race against Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. But a Colom win is a longshot for Democrats in a state Trump won by nearly 23 points.

Minnesota Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing off against Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster turned conservative activist. Republicans are excited about Tafoya’s candidacy, but Minnesota went for Harris by 4 points in 2024 and is affected by the same headwinds as other Midwestern states.

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距离选举日还有近四周，随着民主党在几个倾向共和党的州取得进展，参议院的战场版图正在扩大。

今年，CNN列出的最有可能易手的9个参议院席位名单首次扩大到10个，其​​中包括堪萨斯州——该州94年来从未向参议院输送过民主党人。最新一轮民调还显示，民主党在俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州和德克萨斯州等传统共和党州领先或势均力敌。这四个州在2024年总统大选中都以两位数的优势支持了唐纳德·特朗普。

要想赢得参议院多数席位，民主党人需要拿下四个共和党把持的席位，同时还要保住自己的三个席位，其中包括密歇根州。

根据CNN的民调汇总，特朗普的支持率目前为34%，民众对其经济状况和发动的伊朗战争普遍感到不满。自特朗普重返白宫以来，民主党在特别选举中也看到了选民热情高涨，提前投票率也呈现上升趋势。

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在开始

每周，亚伦·布莱克都会以犀利的分析，拨开政治迷雾，深入剖析可能决定国会控制权的选情、候选人和趋势。订阅《20/26 视野》周刊，了解今年中期选举的最新动态。

但他们也对共和党巨额的竞选支出表示担忧。广告追踪公司AdImpact的数据显示，从10月初到选举日，共和党将在十场竞争最激烈的参议院选举中，有八场的广告支出超过民主党。尽管共和党支持的外部团体为了提升收视率需要投入更多资金，这在一定程度上削弱了共和党的优势。

我们对11月最有可能易手的席位排名，是基于CNN的报道，包括与参与参议院竞选的策略师的对话，以及我们对候选人筹款、民调和各州党派环境的分析。该排名反映了目前各选区的选情，随着中期选举进入最后一个月，排名可能会发生变化。

北卡罗来纳州仍然是今年最有可能翻盘的州。民主党前州长罗伊·库珀将住房负担能力问题作为其竞选的核心议题，他在与共和党候选人迈克尔·沃特利的竞争中占据优势。沃特利曾任共和党全国委员会主席，是特朗普的盟友，目前正在角逐参议员汤姆·蒂利斯的席位。

上个月埃隆大学/YouGov民调显示，库珀在可能投票的选民中领先沃特利11个百分点。共和党重要的外部支出团体——参议院领导基金——已暂停在该地区投放广告。据AdImpact数据显示，上周末，共和党外部团体削减了剩余广告预订金额超过1500万美元。

尽管如此，特朗普上个月还是与沃特利一起在北卡罗来纳州进行竞选活动，试图动员他在该州的支持者，而他曾三次赢得该州的选票。

俄亥俄州在该榜单上上升两位，这反映了前参议员谢罗德·布朗的领先地位。

两年前竞选连任第四届的布朗以不到四个百分点的微弱劣势落败，但在大多数民调中，他都领先于共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特。9月底，《纽约时报》/锡耶纳大学对可能投票的选民进行的一项民调显示，选情胶着，布朗的支持率为49%，赫斯特为46%，两者差距在调查的误差范围内。上个月，马里斯特学院对俄亥俄州登记选民进行的一项民调显示，布朗的支持率领先赫斯特八个百分点。

在《纽约时报》/锡耶纳大学的民调中，赫斯特的支持率为37%，而布朗的支持率为46%。这或许反映出，布朗与许多俄亥俄州选民的交情比赫斯特更长久。赫斯特曾任副州长，去年被任命接替副总统JD·万斯的职位。

布朗对赫斯特在数据中心问题上的攻击——称他为“俄亥俄州数据中心的代表人物”——已被证明特别有效，因为共和党在华盛顿的竞选机构警告说，这个问题是赫斯特竞选的“绊脚石”。

上周，参议院民主党人否决了由赫斯特提出的法案，该法案原本建议各州采取措施应对数据中心相关的能源成本。周六，特朗普在为赫斯特助选时，为俄亥俄州西南部的数据中心辩护，这反映了总统长期以来反对暂停数据中心建设的立场。

在上周发布的一则引起热议的数字广告中，布朗竞选团队还播放了一些选民用脏话回应哈斯特德过去言论的画面，哈斯特德曾表示，生活在贫困中的人“不太擅长应对现实世界”。（布朗竞选团队在电视上播放的是该广告的无脏话版本。）

共和党人似乎借鉴了2024年的竞选策略，投放广告攻击布朗在跨性别政治问题上的立场，希望以此影响该州的选情。布朗则以一则电视广告回应，广告中选民们谈到俄亥俄州已有相关法律，并希望候选人将注意力集中在其他议题上。

进入最后冲刺阶段，一个关键问题是共和党的竞选支出能否帮助缩小选情胶着。共和党团体计划从10月初到选举日期间投入超过8000万美元，而民主党则已拨款超过5000万美元。

阿拉斯加州排名上升两位。这个幅员辽阔、人口稀少的州历来难以进行民意调查，但《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院周六公布的一项针对可能选民的民调显示，民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉的支持率领先共和党参议员丹·沙利文7个百分点，分别为50%和43%。

11月的选举将采用排序复选制，除了苏利文参议员和佩尔托拉之外，还有两位候选人将出现在选票上，其中包括另一位共和党候选人丹·苏利文，他曾是一名教师。选民可能会将同名候选人混淆，这一直是共和党在11月大选前担忧的问题。

民主党人将前国会议员佩尔托拉视为他们最有力的招募对象之一，在她的对手试图将她与“美国本土48州的自由派”联系起来之际，她与一些全国性的民主党政客，如前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯，保持了距离。

就在大选前几周，苏利文站在特朗普身旁，在椭圆形办公室大力宣传韩国对阿拉斯加液化天然气管道项目540亿美元的投资。佩尔托拉也迅速对总统的声明表示赞赏，称她期待与特朗普“继续开展这项两党合作”。

上个月，《纽约时报》的一篇报道详细披露了一些前助手对佩尔托拉的敌对行为指控，佩尔托拉对待助手的态度以及她使用粗俗语言的行为因此受到审查。她的竞选团队否认存在任何虐待行为模式，但承认佩尔托拉在2023年经历了母亲和丈夫去世的双重打击，有时难以承受。阿拉斯加州的另一位共和党参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基也站出来为她辩护，并指出佩尔托拉面临着个人困境。

缅因州在我们的榜单上下降了两位。但共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯和民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊之间的选情依然异常激烈，两人本周将进行首次辩论。

新罕布什尔大学上个月进行的一项民调显示，在缅因州的潜在选民中，杰克逊的支持率略微领先于柯林斯，分别为51%和47%。这是首个公开民调显示民主党候选人在该州占据优势。其他近期民调，包括CNN委托SSRS进行的民调以及《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院联合进行的民调，均未显示明显的领先者。

鉴于哈里斯在2024年以7个百分点的优势赢得了缅因州，科林斯的处境仍然不妙。民调显示，这场竞选的关键更多地在于选民对这位缅因州参议员和特朗普的负面看法，而不是对她民主党对手的看法。

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民主党人猛烈抨击柯林斯在一些重要投票中与特朗普站在同一阵线，尽管她在关税和伊朗战争等问题上坚持己见。他们还抓住ProPublica的一份报告大做文章，该报告指控柯林斯的办公室在2020年竞选期间参与了“付费游戏”计划。柯林斯强烈否认这些指控，称其为“政治抹黑”。

科林斯过去曾多次成功连任，共和党人正竭力提醒选民她为缅因州所做的贡献。共和党团体也斥资数百万美元投放反腐广告，攻击前缅因州参议院议长杰克逊，并在电视上投放广告抨击这位民主党候选人的税收政策。

从周二开始，柯林斯和杰克逊将在十天内进行四场辩论。

德克萨斯州排名上升两位，民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科的处境比预期更有利，而共和党人正在斥资数亿美元营救德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿。

民主党人认为，塔拉里科更广泛的吸引力，加上人们对帕克斯顿丑闻的不安以及拉丁裔选民的左倾，使该党获得了三十年来最现实的机会，将德克萨斯州变成蓝色的州。

《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院在九月最后九天进行的民调显示，在可能投票的选民中，塔拉里科的支持率领先帕克斯顿六个百分点，分别为51%和45%。与此同时，福克斯新闻上周公布的民调显示，这场竞选难分伯仲，塔拉里科的支持率为51%，帕克斯顿为49%。

帕克斯顿需要忠诚的共和党人，包括那些在五月份支持科宁的人，在十一月份的选举中积极投票。特朗普正在尽力帮助他争取基本盘，他一边嘲讽帕克斯顿的外貌，一边声称他是保守派斗士。周四在丹顿举行活动后，特朗普将于周三返回圣安东尼奥举行集会——这将是他一周内第二次访问该州。

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在最后一个月的竞选活动中，共和党在剩余广告预订方面拥有近8比1的支出优势——约7000万美元对900万美元。但与北卡罗来纳州的情况类似，共和党在这里也依赖外部团体，并且大部分广告预订都集中在竞选后期，此时广告库存紧张，导致他们的支出成本较高。

密歇根州排名下降三位。民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯之间的竞争，仍然是共和党在本轮选举周期中为数不多的进攻机会之一。罗杰斯曾任国会议员，在2024年的选举中以0.3%的微弱劣势败给了参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金。

上周公布的马里斯特学院对已登记选民的民调显示，埃尔-赛义德的支持率领先罗杰斯7个百分点，分别为51%和44%。但9月份所有针对可能投票选民的民调都呈现出不同的结果，包括福克斯新闻周三发布的最新调查在内，目前双方均未出现明显的领先者。

共和党在竞选中的支出优势是决定选情胶着直至选举日的关键因素。10月份，共和党计划支出超过4300万美元，而民主党则预留了约2500万美元。共和党人在此地不遗余力地将埃尔-赛义德描绘成非主流人士，铺天盖地的广告称这位民主党候选人“危险”且“激进”。一个支持罗杰斯的团体发布的广告称：“他对密歇根州来说太极端了，你的选票可以阻止他。”

但对特朗普的失望和对经济的担忧，使得罗杰斯在受关税和伊朗战争推高汽油价格的重创的威斯康星州的经营环境十分艰难。

根据福克斯新闻的民调，十分之六的可能选民表示不认可总统的表现，十分之七的可能选民认为生活成本问题极其重要。同一项民调显示，39%的受访者非常担心罗杰斯与特朗普走得太近，而36%的受访者认为埃尔-赛义德的立场过于自由派。

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共和党候选人罗杰斯试图在伊朗问题上与总统保持距离，呼吁在物价上涨之际尽快结束战争——尽管几个月前他还曾赞扬特朗普发动这场冲突的决定。罗杰斯的策略关键在于争取不满的民主党人和独立选民的支持，同时也要动员总统的基本盘支持者投票，因为在特朗普没有参选的选举中，这些基本盘支持者的投票意愿往往不高。

与此同时，埃尔-赛义德最近与哈里斯一同露面，争取黑人选民的支持，其中包括那些认为反对拜登政府对以色列和加沙政策的抗议运动损害了她2024年总统竞选的黑人选民。

尽管他仍然面临一些犹太裔民主党人的质疑，但他同时也赢得了密歇根州总检察长达纳·内塞尔的支持，内塞尔是该州最杰出的犹太裔官员之一。

埃尔-赛义德和罗杰斯将于周四进行首场辩论。

爱荷华州的竞争性比赛排名上升一位。

上周公布的两项针对可能投票选民的民调显示，民主党候选人乔什·图雷克和共和党众议员阿什利·欣森的支持率不相上下。《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调显示，欣森的支持率为48%，图雷克为47%；而福克斯新闻的民调则显示，图雷克的支持率为49%，欣森为47%。

这个农业大州已经感受到了特朗普政策的影响，例如关税和伊朗战争，这些政策导致农用设备、化肥和柴油价格飙升。根据福克斯新闻的民调，特朗普在爱荷华州的支持率为42%，而且与担心图雷克的立场过于自由派（43%）相比，更多选民担心辛森与特朗普的立场过于接近（52%）。

图雷克一直致力于将欣森与特朗普直接联系起来，最近还投放了一则广告，将欣森的投票与该州的高油价挂钩。爱荷华州还有三场竞争激烈的众议院选举和一场州长选举，民主党人认为州审计长罗布·桑德很有可能赢得州长职位，从而帮助图雷克和其他候选人。

与密歇根州的罗杰斯一样，欣森也与伊朗战争保持了一定的距离，她呼吁立即结束这场战争以降低价格，并且批评了特朗普在牛肉进口问题上的举措。

她还陪同总统出现在椭圆形办公室，总统宣布了一项耗资 150 亿美元的钢铁厂计划，该计划可创造 1750 个永久性工作岗位和数千个临时性工作岗位——尽管这一承诺引起了爱荷华州两党人士的一些怀疑。

共和党人正向该州追加资金，力图帮助辛森赢得最终胜利。与共和党结盟的参议院领导基金在10月份增加了2000万美元的广告支出，共和党人有望在竞选的最后几周在该州的支出超过民主党人。

新罕布什尔州的排名下降了两位，但民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯和共和党前参议员约翰·苏努努之间的激烈竞争让民主党人保持警惕。

新罕布什尔大学 9 月份进行的一项民意调查显示，帕帕斯在可能投票的选民中领先苏努努 8 个百分点，而《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院在同一时期进行的民意调查显示，这场竞选没有明显的领先者。

民主党人最终相信，他们的选民和独立选民会在哈里斯于 2024 年险胜的这个州支持帕帕斯，但帕帕斯也警告说，他的政党需要更加重视这个州。

对于新罕布什尔州的选民来说，苏努努这个名字非常熟悉，他的哥哥和父亲都曾担任过该州州长。民主党人正花费大量时间提醒选民，选票上的苏努努究竟是哪一位，并攻击他的游说背景。

共和党策略师也认为，目前民调领先的共和党州长凯莉·阿约特（Kelly Ayotte）可能会在11月的大选中提振苏努努（Sununu）的选情。但众所周知，新罕布什尔州的选民经常会分裂投票，共和党的选情依然严峻。

堪萨斯州首次出现在这份名单上，成为共和党在中期选举最后阶段面临的新难题。

曾是共和党人、后转投民主党的巨型教会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿，让该州陷入了摇摆州的局面。

《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院对堪萨斯州潜在选民进行的民调显示，汉密尔顿与寻求连任的共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔的支持率不相上下。马歇尔在2020年首次当选参议员时以两位数的优势获胜，而特朗普在2024年堪萨斯州的选举中以16个百分点的优势胜出。如今，与共和党关系密切的参议院领导基金将投入数百万美元用于广告宣传，为马歇尔的竞选保驾护航。

妇产科医生马歇尔因报道自己卷入医疗债务诉讼而遭到抨击。汉密尔顿的竞选团队抓住这一事态发展大做文章，引发马歇尔的抗议。上个月的辩论中，马歇尔称这些报道是“抹黑”，并表示自己只是“从事了常见的商业活动”。

马歇尔也面临着与特朗普相关的种种不利因素，这些不利因素正给全国各地的共和党人带来压力，关税和燃油成本上涨对堪萨斯州和爱荷华州的农民都造成了沉重打击。他已采取一些措施与总统保持距离——上个月发表声明，谴责美国移民和海关执法局“对当地社区和企业造成大规模干扰”。

与此同时，汉密尔顿正利用其党派立场转变来吸引更广泛的选民，将自己与华盛顿的“失灵”政治区分开来。他在上个月的一则重点广告中说道：“我们必须通过寻求中间路线来修复我们支离破碎的政治体系。是时候做出改变了。”

就在上周，迈克·海登成为堪萨斯州第二位公开支持汉密尔顿而非马歇尔的共和党前州长。“我之前支持罗杰·马歇尔。但他在参议院任职期间，一直把党派和政治利益置于堪萨斯人民的利益之上，”海登在一篇评论文章中写道。“是时候做出改变了。”

佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫在与共和党挑战者、众议员迈克·柯林斯的竞选连任中似乎处于有利地位。

根据联邦选举委员会（FEC）关于他们主要竞选委员会的记录，截至6月底，奥索夫的筹款额超过了柯林斯，分别为7700万美元和650万美元。

这也是唯一一场民主党将在最后一个月广告支出方面大幅领先（2300 万美元对 1600 万美元）的参议院竞选，因为共和党似乎不愿将大量资源投入到这场竞选中——这与俄亥俄州的竞选形成了鲜明对比。

双方策略师都在密切关注佐治亚州的州长竞选，共和党希望他们的候选人里克·杰克逊能够提振科林斯的选情。但奥索夫也在努力为佐治亚州的民主党人争取支持，其中包括州长候选人凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯。

这些州看起来胜算渺茫，但我们仍会密切关注它们，直到 11 月。

内布拉斯加州是另一个受到特朗普对伊朗战争经济冲击的中西部州。对于独立候选人丹·奥斯本来说，这场竞选依然充满挑战。奥斯本曾在2024年竞选参议员失败，如今他挑战的是共和党参议员皮特·里基茨。

南卡罗来纳州参议员达琳·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham）接替已故兄长林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）的席位，正与民主党候选人、儿科医生安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）竞选连任。此次选举的一大看点是共和党在最后阶段会投入多少资金。民主党人已经近三十年未曾赢得南卡罗来纳州的参议院席位。

密西西比州民主党参议员候选人斯科特·科洛姆与共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯的竞选吸引了众多关注。但在这个特朗普曾以近23个百分点优势获胜的州，科洛姆的胜算对民主党来说微乎其微。

明尼苏达州民主党副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根将与米歇尔·塔福亚展开角逐，后者曾是一名体育播音员，如今已转型为保守派活动家。共和党人对塔福亚的参选感到兴奋，但明尼苏达州在2024年以4个百分点的优势支持了哈里斯，并且与其他中西部州一样，面临着同样的挑战。