‘A five-alarm fire’ confronts President Trump in red-state October blitz

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The midterm elections were just two days away the last time a sitting president visited Grand Island, the fourth-largest city in the middle of one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.

It was November 5, 2006, and George W. Bush was barnstorming red cities in red states in hopes of staving off what would become the inevitable: a wave wiping away Republican control of the House and Senate for the final two years of his term.

Now, President Donald Trump is facing the midterm music.

As Trump heads here on Monday, to a state he won by 20 points two years ago, he is looking for a safe harbor – and to fire up friendly faces – in the latest stop on his red-state October blitz.

The White House itinerary tells the story of how the final chapter of the fall campaign is playing out almost entirely in Trump country. In a weeklong stretch, the president’s travels from Texas to Oklahoma to Alabama to Ohio to Nebraska and back to Texas — all states he carried by double digits — underscore the degree to which Republicans are on defense as he urgently rallies supporters to come to his party’s aid.

“Just get out and vote,” Trump told a weekend crowd in Ohio. “If you do that, we’re going to win and we’re going to win big. And we’re going to shove it up their ass.”

With or without vulgarities, Trump has been telegraphing his worry about the midterm campaign for the last year. It’s a rare bout of self-reflection that he faces the same challenges all presidents do, with the fight for control of Congress nearly always delivering a comeuppance to the party in power.

“Whether you have a great president or not, Republican or Democrat, they don’t do well in the midterms,” Trump lamented Friday night at a stop in Mobile, Alabama. “I don’t know why. Nobody’s explained it.”

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It’s still an open question whether Trump’s sudden campaign spree, along with significant GOP financial advantages in nearly every battleground state, will help Republicans avoid a similar fate now. Democratic anxieties are also rising about being outspent in TV ads across the map.

In 2018, during Trump’s first midterm election, Republicans lost the House but narrowly expanded their grip on the Senate. But with a far bleaker economic picture and a lingering war in Iran, even many Republicans are pessimistic about November.

“This is a five-alarm fire,” a GOP member of Congress from a state Trump visited recently told CNN, asking to not be identified to avoid alienating the White House. “We always welcome the president, but I don’t know if he’s aware of the feelings out here.”

When Trump arrives at the Nebraska State Fairgrounds in Grand Island, he will be stepping into the state’s 3rd Congressional District, which he won with 76% of the vote in 2024. It’s the most Republican part of Nebraska, covering 80 of the state’s 93 counties, where cattle ranching and farming is the lifeblood of the economy.

The president is not visiting the two other congressional districts in Nebraska, which are highly competitive, particularly the 2nd District to fill the seat of retiring Rep. Don Bacon. The 2nd – which includes Omaha and is sometimes known as the “blue dot” – is one of only three districts in the country Trump lost in 2024 that is represented by a Republican.

Trump’s rally is intended to offer a boost to Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, who is facing a challenge from Dan Osborn, a former union leader and independent candidate. It is among the competitive races stirring anxiety among Republicans in their effort to hold their Senate majority, where there is no margin for error as the battleground map expands .

“There’s no doubt that high fuel prices put a strain on the budgets for every Nebraska family,” Ricketts told CNN, adding that he welcomes the president’s visit. “That’s one of the things I hear when I travel the state.”

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Osborn is running again two years after losing by fewer than 7 percentage points to GOP Sen. Deb Fischer. This time, he faces no Democratic opposition, with the party intentionally standing down in hopes of defeating Ricketts.

“The significant difference now between when I was campaigning in 2024 is the war in Iran and costs that are skyrocketing,” Osborn told CNN. “With every single town hall, that’s usually the first thing that gets brought up is the cost of living. It’s tough.”

The president’s August decision to allow up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to be imported into the United States with lower tariffs was also met with fierce opposition from Nebraska cattle growers.

The policy, which Trump said was designed to bring down the cost of beef in the grocery store, has also sparked controversy in Iowa , Kansas and Texas , the rest of the top four beef-producing states. All four have competitive Senate races in states Trump won three times.

Whether Trump addresses the matter will be closely watched in the region.

“This harvest season, with diesel nearly doubled, export markets drying up, rural hospitals struggling, and senseless tariffs still hitting our pockets, Trump would be better served doing his actual job instead of breaking every promise he made to Nebraskans,” said Jane Kleeb, chairwoman of the Nebraska Democratic Party.

In his weekend campaign stops, Trump continued to exhibit a disconnect between how he describes the economy and how many Americans experience it. He made no mention of rising costs but said: “With the hottest country anywhere in the world, it’s the golden age of America.”

He is striving to make the November election a contrast with Democrats rather than a referendum on him and the administration’s policies.

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It follows a familiar pattern with his 2018 campaign travel in the midterm election of his first term: visiting red states filled with admirers, hoping to minimize political harm by firing up his detractors.

“If the Democrats win, you will end up in a 1929-style Great Depression,” Trump told a crowd in Ohio on Saturday night. “We will have a disaster on our hands.”

Excitement was building in Grand Island, a city of 53,000, for his arrival. Trump won Hall County, which includes the city, by 37 points in 2024. Local news accounts recalled the last time Air Force One landed at Central Nebraska Regional Airport in 2006. In that speech, Bush warned Republicans against lapsing into a gloom-and-doom mindset.

“I’m sure you’ve heard the same predictions I’ve heard,” Bush said. “The prognosticators have already decided the outcome of this election before the good people of Nebraska have voted.”

A decade before Trump rallies began leaving their mark on modern-day politics, Bush spent the spent the final four days of that campaign also barnstorming through Montana, Nevada, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Kansas, Florida and Arkansas.

Republicans held all three House seats in Nebraska then. But they went on to lose their congressional majorities – 31 seats in the House and six in the Senate – in a midterm election season Bush famously described afterward as “a thumping.”

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上一次在任总统访问格兰德岛时，距离中期选举只有两天了。格兰德岛是美国最可靠的共和党州之一的中心地带的第四大城市。

那是 2006 年 11 月 5 日，乔治·W·布什正在红色州的红色城市进行巡回演讲，希望能够阻止即将发生的不可避免的事情：一股浪潮席卷而来，共和党将失去对其众议院和参议院的控制权，而他的任期也将因此结束。

现在，唐纳德·特朗普总统正面临着中期选举的考验。

周一，特朗​​普将前往这个两年前以 20 个百分点优势获胜的州，他希望在这里找到一个安全的避风港，并在他十月红色州闪电战的最新一站中，激发支持者的热情。

白宫的行程安排揭示了秋季竞选的最后阶段几乎完全在特朗普的票仓展开。在一周的时间里，总统先后前往德克萨斯州、俄克拉荷马州、阿拉巴马州、俄亥俄州、内布拉斯加州，最后又回到德克萨斯州——所有这些州他都以两位数的优势获胜——这凸显了共和党人如今的守势，因为总统正紧急动员支持者帮助他的党派。

“赶紧去投票，”特朗普周末在俄亥俄州对人群说。“如果你们都去投票，我们就会赢，而且会大获全胜。我们会狠狠地羞辱他们。”

无论言辞是否粗俗，特朗普过去一年来一直在流露出他对中期选举的担忧。他难得地反思自己面临的挑战，意识到自己和其他总统一样，都面临着同样的困境：争夺国会控制权的斗争几乎总是会给执政党带来不利后果。

“不管你选出的总统是不是伟大的，不管他是共和党人还是民主党人，他们在中期选举中都表现不佳，”特朗普周五晚在阿拉巴马州莫比尔市的一次活动中感叹道。“我不知道为什么。没人能解释清楚。”

曼德尔·颜/法新社/盖蒂图片社/文件

特朗普突然发起的竞选攻势，加上共和党在几乎所有摇摆州都拥有的雄厚财力，能否帮助共和党避免重蹈覆辙，目前仍是未知数。民主党人也越来越担心在电视广告支出方面落后于共和党。

2018年，在特朗普首次参加中期选举时，共和党虽然失去了众议院的控制权，但勉强扩大了在参议院的席位。然而，由于经济前景远比以往黯淡，加上伊朗战争持续不断，就连许多共和党人也对11月的选举结果感到悲观。

“这简直是五级警报，”一位来自特朗普近期访问过的州的共和党国会议员告诉CNN，他要求匿名，以免得罪白宫。“我们一直欢迎总统，但我不知道他是否了解这里的人们的感受。”

当特朗普抵达内布拉斯加州格兰德岛的州博览会场时，他将踏入该州的第三国会选区，他在2024年以76%的得票率赢得了该选区。这是内布拉斯加州共和党势力最强大的地区，覆盖了该州93个县中的80个，畜牧业和农业是该地区经济的命脉。

总统并未访问内布拉斯加州的另外两个竞争激烈的国会选区，尤其是第二选区，该选区将填补即将退休的众议员唐·培根的空缺。第二选区（包括奥马哈市，有时被称为“蓝点”）是特朗普在2024年大选中失利的三个由共和党人代表的选区之一。

特朗普的竞选集会旨在提振共和党参议员皮特·里基茨的选情，他正面临前工会领袖、独立候选人丹·奥斯本的挑战。这场竞争激烈的选战令共和党人焦虑不安，他们正努力保住参议院多数席位，而随着选情版图的扩大，共和党在参议院的胜算渺茫。

“毫无疑问，高油价给内布拉斯加州每个家庭的预算都带来了压力，”里基茨告诉CNN，并补充说他欢迎总统的来访。“这是我在全州各地走访时经常听到的诉求之一。”

凯文迪奇/盖蒂图片社/文件

奥斯本在两年前以不到7个百分点的差距败给共和党参议员黛布·费舍尔后，再次参选。这一次，他没有遇到民主党对手，因为民主党有意放弃竞选，希望借此击败里基茨。

奥斯本告诉CNN：“现在和我2024年竞选时最大的不同在于伊朗战争以及飞涨的生活成本。每次市政厅会议，人们首先提到的通常都是生活成本问题。生活确实很艰难。”

总统在 8 月份决定允许以较低的关税进口多达 30 万吨碎牛肉到美国，这一决定也遭到了内布拉斯加州养牛户的强烈反对。

特朗普称这项政策旨在降低超市牛肉价格，但该政策也在爱荷华州、堪萨斯州和德克萨斯州——美国四大牛肉生产州中的另外三个——引发了争议。这四个州都正在进行竞争激烈的参议院选举，而特朗普曾三次赢得这些州的选举。

特朗普是否会就此事发表讲话，将受到该地区的密切关注。

内布拉斯加州民主党主席简·克莱布表示：“在这个收获季节，柴油价格几乎翻了一番，出口市场萎缩，农村医院举步维艰，无谓的关税仍在冲击着我们的钱包，特朗普与其违背他对内布拉斯加州人民做出的每一个承诺，不如好好履行他的本职工作。”

在周末的竞选活动中，特朗普继续表现出他对经济的描述与许多美国人的实际感受之间存在脱节。他只字未提物价上涨的问题，反而说：“美国是世界上最热的国家，这是美国的黄金时代。”

他力图将11月的选举变成与民主党人的对比，而不是对他本人和政府政策的公投。

安娜·莫尼梅克/盖蒂图片社

这延续了他在第一任期中期选举期间的竞选行程模式：访问支持者众多的红色州，希望通过激怒批评者来最大限度地减少政治损害。

“如果民主党人赢了，你们最终会陷入类似1929年大萧条的局面，”特朗普周六晚在俄亥俄州对人群说。“我们将面临一场灾难。”

在拥有5.3万人口的格兰德岛市，人们对他的到来充满期待。2024年，特朗普在包括该市在内的霍尔县以37个百分点的优势获胜。当地新闻报道回顾了2006年空军一号上次降落在内布拉斯加州中部地区机场的情景。在那次演讲中，布什警告共和党人不要陷入悲观绝望的情绪。

“我相信你们也听到了和我一样的预测，”布什说。“在内布拉斯加州的善良人民投票之前，那些预测者就已经决定了这次选举的结果。”

在特朗普的竞选集会开始对现代政治产生影响的十年前，布什也在竞选的最后四天里奔走于蒙大拿州、内华达州、密苏里州、爱荷华州、科罗拉多州、堪萨斯州、佛罗里达州和阿肯色州。

当时共和党在内布拉斯加州占据了众议院的全部三个席位。但在中期选举中，他们失去了国会多数席位——众议院失去了31个席位，参议院失去了6个席位——布什后来将那次选举形容为“惨败”。