Quebec separatists vowing independence vote win provincial election but fall short of majority

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The separatist Parti Québécois won Quebec’s provincial election Monday but fell short of enough seats to govern alone, returning to power with a promise to hold another referendum on independence from Canada.

The result returns Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party to power for the first time in more than a decade but denies it the majority it sought, forcing the separatists to rely on opposition parties even as they try to revive Quebec’s independence debate.

The party was on track to win nearly 60 seats as the final votes were counted, falling short of the 64 needed for a majority in Quebec’s 127-member National Assembly, the provincial legislature. A minority government means PQ will need support from opposition lawmakers to pass key legislation and survive confidence votes.

St-Pierre Plamondon acknowledged that voters had denied his party a majority. “Quebecers elected the Parti Québécois asking it to work with the other parties, and I heard that message,” he said.

He has pledged to hold another referendum on independence, though he has said he would wait until US President Donald Trump is no longer in office.

St-Pierre Plamondon framed independence as essential to preserving Quebec’s French-speaking identity, saying it was a “question of survival” for a French-speaking population that represents only a small fraction of North America. He said Quebec “just wants to exist on its own like other countries of the world” and that a referendum would allow Quebecers to decide their own future.

“I continue to dream and visualize that country,” St-Pierre Plamondon said in his victory speech. “That dream will be realized one day.”

He also sought to reassure Canadians outside Quebec. “The project for independence is not about excluding you,” he said. “Quebec will never change its geographical position, so we have an interest in working together.”

Coalition Avenir Québec leader Christine Fréchette conceded defeat, saying voters had made their choice and that she took full responsibility for the “difficult result.” The CAQ, which entered the election with 79 seats, was shut out of the legislature, and Fréchette lost her own seat in Trois-Rivières.

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But the PQ’s victory does not mean most Quebecers support leaving Canada.

“This was not an election about independence, which is not popular in Quebec right now, but about getting rid of the CAQ, the party in power since 2018,” said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal.

Support for independence remains at about 30%, low by historical standards, he said. Béland said the minority result is likely welcome news for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government because it could make it harder for the PQ to prepare for and eventually call an independence referendum.

The PQ would face opposition from both the Liberals and Conservatives, whose leaders have said they would fight efforts to hold a sovereignty referendum. Québec solidaire, another pro-independence party, could hold the balance of power and potentially support the PQ on a referendum.

Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon and signaled that Ottawa would work with the incoming separatist government. “Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada,” Carney said. He said the two governments would work together to support businesses and workers affected by US tariffs, create jobs and build housing.

Still, Béland said a separatist government in Quebec poses a new national-unity challenge for Carney, particularly with another independence-related vote approaching elsewhere in Canada.

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The Quebec result comes two weeks before Albertans vote October 19 on whether to hold a referendum on separation from Canada.

“Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney,” Béland said.

Quebec voters have twice rejected sovereignty, most recently by a razor-thin margin in a 1995 referendum.

Quebec, which is about 80% French-speaking, already has significant autonomy. The province of 9.1 million collects its own income tax, has immigration policies favoring French speakers and has laws giving the French language priority over English.

Even with the PQ victory, Trump’s tariffs and 51st-state rhetoric have complicated the separatist argument by stirring Canadian nationalism and giving some French-speaking Quebecers another reason to value remaining part of Canada.

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Trump’s tariffs and repeated threats against Canada became a defining issue in the 2025 federal election, helping lift Carney’s Liberals to victory after the party had trailed badly before Trump returned to office.

Andrej Ivanov/AFP/Getty Images

魁北克分离主义政党魁北克人党周一赢得了魁北克省选举，但席位不足以单独执政，该党承诺将再次举行独立公投，以决定是否脱离加拿大。

选举结果使保罗·圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东的政党十多年来首次重新执政，但未能获得其所寻求的多数席位，迫使分离主义者不得不依靠反对党，即便他们试图重振魁北克独立辩论。

最终计票结果显示，魁北克人党有望赢得近60个席位，但仍未达到魁北克省议会（省议会）127个席位中所需的64席多数。少数派政府意味着魁北克人党需要反对党议员的支持才能通过关键立法并在信任投票中胜出。

圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东承认，选民们没有让他的政党获得多数席位。“魁北克人选举魁北克人党，是希望它与其他政党合作，我听到了他们的心声，”他说。

他承诺将再次举行独立公投，但他表示会等到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普卸任后再举行。

圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东认为，独立对于维护魁北克的法语身份至关重要，并表示这对于仅占北美人口一小部分的法语人口而言，是“生死攸关的问题”。他表示，魁北克“只想和世界其他国家一样独立存在”，而全民公投将使魁北克人能够决定自己的未来。

圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东在胜选演讲中说：“我一直梦想着、憧憬着那个国家。这个梦想终有一天会实现。”

他还试图安抚魁北克以外的加拿大人。“独立运动并非要将你们排除在外，”他说。“魁北克的地理位置永远不会改变，所以我们有理由与你们合作。”

魁北克未来联盟党领袖克里斯汀·弗雷谢特承认败选，称选民已做出选择，她对这一“艰难的结果”负全部责任。魁北克未来联盟党在选举中拥有79个席位，但最终未能进入省议会，弗雷谢特本人也在三河市失去了席位。

帕特里克·多伊尔/路透社

但魁北克人党的胜利并不意味着大多数魁北克人支持脱离加拿大。

“这次选举并非关乎独立，因为独立在魁北克目前并不受欢迎，而是关乎摆脱自 2018 年以来一直执政的魁北克未来联盟党（CAQ）。”蒙特利尔麦吉尔大学政治学教授丹尼尔·贝兰说道。

他表示，支持独立的呼声仍然维持在30%左右，按历史标准来看处于较低水平。贝朗德说，少数派的选举结果对总理马克·卡尼的政府来说可能是一个好消息，因为这可能会使魁北克党更难筹备并最终举行独立公投。

魁北克人党将面临自由党和保守党的双重反对，两党领导人均已表示将反对举行主权公投。另一个支持独立的政党——魁北克团结党，可能掌握关键的权力平衡，并有可能在公投中支持魁北克人党。

卡尼向圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东表示祝贺，并暗示渥太华将与即将上任的魁北克独立政府合作。卡尼说：“建设一个更强大的魁北克是我们建设一个更强大的加拿大这一使命的核心。” 他表示，两级政府将携手合作，支持受美国关税影响的企业和工人，创造就业机会并建造住房。

不过，贝朗表示，魁北克的分离主义政府对卡尼来说是一个全新的国家团结挑战，尤其是在加拿大其他地区即将举行另一次与独立相关的投票之际。

克里斯·塔努耶/路透社

法语已成为加美贸易争端的一个症结所在。原因如下。

魁北克省的选举结果公布两周后，阿尔伯塔省将于10月19日投票决定是否举行脱离加拿大的全民公投。

贝兰德说：“看到一个支持独立的政党在魁北克省获胜，而阿尔伯塔省也将在两周后举行与独立相关的公投，这可能会让特朗普政府认为，尽管马克·卡尼很受欢迎，但国家团结仍然是加拿大的一个重大问题。”

魁北克选民曾两次否决主权，最近一次是在 1995 年的公投中，以微弱优势否决了主权。

魁北克省约有80%的人口讲法语，该省已享有相当大的自治权。这个拥有910万人口的省份自行征收所得税，其移民政策倾向于法语使用者，并且有法律赋予法语优先于英语的地位。

即使魁北克人党取得了胜利，特朗普的关税政策和关于建立第 51 个州的言论也激起了加拿大民族主义情绪，使分离主义论点变得更加复杂，并让一些讲法语的魁北克人更加珍惜留在加拿大的权利。

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一年多来，特朗普一直在对加拿大领导人进行人身攻击。现在，卡尼开始反击了。

特朗普对加拿大征收关税并反复威胁，这成为 2025 年联邦选举的一个决定性问题，帮助卡尼领导的自由党在特朗普重返政坛之前大幅落后的情况下取得了胜利。