US and China discussing reciprocal nuclear site visits amid concerns about a new arms race

Tingshu Wang/Reuters

The Trump administration has discussed beginning reciprocal nuclear site visits with China and plans to continue pushing for that possibility during in-person meetings in the coming months, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The discussions, which have been informal and preliminary, come amid mounting US concerns about China’s rapidly growing nuclear weapons program and after the last remaining arms control agreement between the US and Russia expired last year. The effort to establish a trilateral agreement began in Trump’s first term, but no tangible progress has been made and formal talks on a new accord have not begun, with China and Russia largely ignoring substantive US outreach efforts.

The idea of reciprocal visits was initially raised by the Chinese while meeting US officials this year, one source said, giving some indication that the communist nation may be open to pursuing confidence building measures that could pave the way for a grander agreement. Visits to the US Department of Energy national labs and to China’s equivalent facilities were discussed, and the US would be open to discussing visits to nuclear testing sites, the source said.

The nuclear discussions between the US and Chinese officials at the working level so far this year have largely occurred on the sidelines of gatherings by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, known as the P5, sources said.

The concept of allowing nuclear site visits could move the needle on the US efforts to engage China on issues related to strategic stability and potentially serve as a building block for a trilateral agreement, but China remains adamant that they will not engage on discussions that could limit their nuclear buildup. The US currently has a much bigger nuclear arsenal with about 5,000 total nuclear warheads while China has about 600, but it is expanding its nuclear weapons infrastructure and has been projected to produce hundreds more warheads over the next decade.

A State Department spokesperson referred questions to the White House, which did not provide a comment. CNN has requested comment from the Chinese embassy in Washington, DC. Last Thursday, China began its weeklong National Day holiday, during which all government offices are closed.

Paul Dean, who previously served as an acting assistant secretary of state overseeing US arms control efforts, told CNN that the administration needs to approach any Chinese nuclear negotiations with its “eyes wide open,” but said that reciprocal visits would be “an extremely valuable confidence-building measure” that could lay the informational and diplomatic foundation for additional work to reduce nuclear risk between the two countries.

“This is a very dangerous time, and there are very few guardrails in place on the US-China nuclear relationship,” Dean, now a vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative nonprofit, said.

President Donald Trump expressed support for trilateral arms control negotiations between the US, Russia and China when he met Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month, but they didn’t discuss the possibility of site visits during their talks, a US official said.

Xi did not leave the door open to discussing a trilateral agreement, pointing to the US and Russian nuclear arsenals being larger than China’s – a point that Chinese officials have routinely used to shield themselves from any discussions that could lead to limiting their nuclear stockpile before they are on par with the US, the official added.

Still, the topic of nuclear arms control has long been a focus for Trump, who is expected to meet with Xi twice later this year. By the time the two leaders meet again it is expected that further lower-level discussions on possible nuclear site visits will have taken place, the sources said.

Visiting nuclear sites for on-site inspections have historically been used as a vital verification tool by the International Atomic Energy Agency to be sure that nations are abiding by their commitments to using the facilities for peaceful purposes.

Experts and former US officials who spoke with CNN were encouraged by the talks but were not confident that they will immediately lead to concrete progress on a breakthrough agreement.

“It has to be taken seriously. It could be a great start,” said a former US official who has engaged China in track two discussions related to strategic stability in recent years.

Still, skeptics noted that the Chinese may have floated the idea in an effort to create a positive atmosphere or to appear serious on the topic of nuclear arsenals, said former US officials and experts who questioned the authenticity of such an offer.

“In advance of a big summit if the Chinese can put good feelers out there they will do that,” said another former US official who focused on nuclear issues. “It makes them seem more magnanimous as the two sides are engaging.”

The Chinese may have a “maligned motivation” they said.

About a year ago Trump said that the US would resume nuclear testing on an “equal basis” with China and Russia, but there has been no known US nuclear testing since that pronouncement. The administration earlier this year accused China of carrying out a secret nuclear test in 2020 using a technique known as “decoupling” designed to evade detection by firing the explosion in an empty cavern to minimize seismic shaking.

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s nonproliferation directorate conducted 16-ton underground non-nuclear explosion last week at the Nevada National Security Site that was the second in a years-long series of experiments designed to mimic the alleged Chinese test, according to an agency spokesperson. The decoupled test explosion offered NNSA and other entities a chance to validate the effectiveness of new methods and equipment for detecting such stealthy tests.

“You cannot evade American innovation,” NNSA Administrator Brandon Williams said in a news release announcing the test.

The Trump administration is also working on a proposal that would enable assure verification that low-yield nuclear testing is not happening at nuclear sites and could share that with the P5 group later this year, a US official said. It is unclear what kind of technical equipment could be part of that proposal.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

Gerald Brown, who studies China’s military at the Council on Foreign Relations nonprofit, said he is “not particularly optimistic” but that the reciprocal visit scheme, if enacted, is “a potential glimmer of hope” for reducing nuclear risk between the US and China.

Brown, a former State Department intel analyst, said that China’s ongoing nuclear buildup “is deeply linked with political goals, namely its aggressive ambitions regarding Taiwan.” China historically has viewed nuclear talks as “tool to gain political concessions” on Taiwan, he argued, rather than as a genuine policy goal.

“You won’t know what’s on the table until you engage in a thoughtful, rigorous way to see if this is something in our interest — and it might be,” said Dean.

Dean, whose nonprofit has engaged with Chinese entities in nonofficial diplomatic discussions in recent months, said he sees mutual “interest and acknowledgement that the risks are real.”

He pointed at the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, which sparked some of the first US-Soviet risk reduction measures like a 24-hour phone hotline, as a historical warning.

“We don’t need to wait for a crisis to start reducing nuclear risks,” Dean argued. “And the risks are very real right now.”

Davis Winkie’s work at CNN is supported by a partnership between Outrider Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners (JFP). CNN retains full editorial control of the reporting.

王廷书/路透社

据知情人士透露，特朗普政府已讨论与中国开展互访核设施的事宜，并计划在未来几个月的面对面会谈中继续推动这一可能性。

这些非正式的初步讨论正值美国日益担忧中国快速发展的核武器计划之际，此前美俄之间仅存的军控协议已于去年到期。建立三方协议的努力始于特朗普的第一任期，但至今未取得任何实质性进展，关于新协议的正式谈判也尚未启动，中俄两国基本上无视了美国的实质性努力。

一位消息人士称，中方今年早些时候与美国官员会晤时首次提出了互访的想法，这表明中国可能愿意采取建立信任措施，为达成更广泛的协议铺平道路。该消息人士还表示，双方讨论了互访美国能源部国家实验室和中国同等设施的事宜，美国也愿意讨论访问核试验场的问题。

消息人士称，今年迄今为止，美中官员在工作层面进行的核问题讨论主要发生在联合国安理会五个常任理事国（即五常）会议的间隙。

允许核设施访问的设想或许能推动美国在战略稳定问题上与中国展开对话，并有可能成为三边协议的基石。但中国仍然坚持不会参与任何可能限制其核武库建设的讨论。目前，美国拥有约5000枚核弹头，远超中国，而中国拥有约600枚。但中国正在扩建其核武器基础设施，预计未来十年还将生产数百枚核弹头。

美国国务院发言人将问题转给了白宫，白宫方面未予置评。CNN已向中国驻华盛顿大使馆请求置评。上周四，中国开始为期一周的国庆假期，期间所有政府机关均关闭。

曾担任美国代理助理国务卿、负责监督美国军控工作的保罗·迪恩告诉 CNN，美国政府需要“睁大眼睛”看待任何与中国的核谈判，但他表示，互访将是“一项极其有价值的建立信任措施”，可以为进一步降低两国核风险的工作奠定信息和外交基础。

“这是一个非常危险的时期，美中核关系几乎没有任何保障措施，”迪恩说道，他现在是非营利组织“核威胁倡议”的副总裁。

一位美国官员表示，唐纳德·特朗普总统上个月与中国领导人习近平会晤时，表示支持美俄中三边军控谈判，但他们在会谈中没有讨论实地访问的可能性。

习近平并未给讨论三边协议留下余地，他指出美国和俄罗斯的核武库比中国大——这位官员补充说，中国官员经常以此为由，阻止任何可能导致其核武库规模在与美国持平之前受到限制的讨论。

不过，核军控问题一直是特朗普长期关注的焦点，预计他将于今年晚些时候与习近平会晤两次。消息人士称，届时两位领导人将再次会晤，预计双方还将就可能的核设施访问进行更深入的低级别讨论。

历史上，国际原子能机构一直将实地核查作为一项重要的核查手段，以确保各国遵守其将核设施用于和平目的的承诺。

与 CNN 交谈的专家和美国前官员对会谈表示鼓舞，但他们并不确信会谈会立即在达成突破性协议方面取得实质性进展。

“必须认真对待此事。这可能是一个良好的开端，”一位近年来曾与中国就战略稳定问题进行二轨对话的美国前官员表示。

不过，持怀疑态度的人士指出，中国提出这一想法可能是为了营造积极的氛围，或者在核武库问题上表现出认真态度。一些美国前官员和专家质疑这一提议的真实性。

另一位曾专注于核问题的美国前官员表示：“如果中国能在峰会召开前释放出良好的信号，他们肯定会这么做。这会让他们在双方接触时显得更加宽宏大量。”

他们说，中国人可能怀有“别有用心的动机”。

大约一年前，特朗普曾表示美国将与中国和俄罗斯“平等”地恢复核试验，但自那以后，美国没有进行过任何已知的核试验。今年早些时候，美国政府指责中国在2020年秘密进行了一次核试验，采用了一种名为“脱钩”的技术，即在空旷的洞穴中引爆，以最大限度地减少地震震动，从而避免被探测到。

据美国国家核安全管理局（NNSA）发言人称，NNSA防扩散局上周在内华达国家安全基地进行了一次16吨的地下非核爆炸试验，这是旨在模拟所谓中国核试验的一系列持续数年的试验中的第二次。这次非耦合试验爆炸为NNSA和其他机构提供了一个机会，以验证探测此类隐蔽核试验的新方法和设备的有效性。

“你无法逃避美国的创新，”美国国家核安全管理局局长布兰登·威廉姆斯在宣布此次测试的新闻稿中说道。

一位美国官员表示，特朗普政府正在制定一项提案，旨在确保核查核设施内未进行低当量核试验，并可能在今年晚些时候与五常集团分享该提案。目前尚不清楚该提案可能包含哪些技术设备。

Alex Wong/Getty Images

外交关系委员会非营利组织的中国军事专家杰拉尔德·布朗表示，他“并不特别乐观”，但如果互访计划得以实施，则“有可能为降低美中之间的核风险带来一线希望”。

布朗曾任美国国务院情报分析员，他表示，中国持续的核武库建设“与政治目标密切相关，尤其是其在台湾问题上的咄咄逼人的野心”。他认为，中国历来将核谈判视为在台湾问题上“获取政治让步的工具”，而非真正的政策目标。

迪恩说：“只有经过深思熟虑、严谨认真的讨论，看看这是否符合我们的利益，你才会知道摆在桌面上的是什么——而这或许正是我们的利益所在。”

迪恩表示，他的非营利组织近几个月来一直与中国实体进行非官方外交讨论，他看到了双方的“共同兴趣和对风险真实存在的认识”。

他指出，1962 年古巴导弹危机是一个历史性的警示，这场危机引发了一些最早的美苏风险降低措施，例如 24 小时电话热线。

迪恩认为：“我们无需等到危机爆发才开始降低核风险，而这些风险现在就非常真实。”

戴维斯·温基在CNN的工作得到了Outrider基金会和新闻资助伙伴（JFP）的合作支持。CNN对报道拥有完全的编辑控制权。