Can left-wing ‘eco-populist’ Zack Polanski ride his Green Party’s surge into the UK parliament?

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The leader of the UK’s Green Party, Zack Polanski, will on Thursday challenge the political establishment by taking on the ruling Labour Party in a special election for the seat held by former prime minister Keir Starmer.

Polanski, with his deep reserve of progressive policies and an active presence on TikTok cuts a markedly different figure to Starmer, who consistently alienated his Labour Party’s left-wing and developed a reputation as a stilted, ineffective communicator.

That contrast helped Polanski and the Greens gain traction as a popular left-wing alternative to the governing, center-left Labour Party, which has been bleeding voters in recent years over its stance on issues like welfare spending, trans rights and the war in Gaza. Polanski even said on more than one occasion that his party “is here to replace Labour.”

But that momentum has largely stalled since Starmer resigned as prime minister in the summer following enormous pressure from his party. He stepped down as a member of parliament (MP) last month, triggering the by-election.

In Starmer’s place, a more formidable opponent has emerged. Andy Burnham, the current prime minister, is widely seen as a better political operator and more capable of appealing to a broad spectrum of voters, including the progressives Polanski has been targeting.

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So the outcome of this by-election – in the central London constituency of Holborn and St. Pancras – represents more than just Polanski potentially becoming an MP.

It pits the Greens and Labour directly against each other for the first time since Burnham took office, acting as the first major electoral test for the new government as well as a barometer of the Greens’ ability to compete with a rejuvenated Labour.

If Polanski wins on Thursday, it will be a stern warning for the new prime minister and could be an early indicator that Britain’s left flank has irrevocably split. But if he loses and Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali holds the party’s seat, it will serve as a sign that Burnham has managed to pull progressives back into the Labour Party and slow its electoral decline.

Differing stances over the war in Gaza and antisemitism are central to that split, and to this by-election. Many Muslim voters have said they will not vote Labour because they think the government has not acted strongly enough over Gaza.

This weekend, the Greens adopted a controversial motion classifying Zionism , which Jewish groups sometimes define as a right to Jewish self-determination, as a form of racism, calling it an “ethnonationalist political project.”

Polanski, who is Jewish and changed his name from David Paulden when he was 18 to honor that heritage, did not vote on the motion nor mention it in his speech to the conference. He describes himself as an “anti-Zionist.” Israel responded by banning Polanski from visiting the country.

On Wednesday, a fresh storm broke out in British media over a reported friendship between the Green Party member who proposed the motion and a man convicted in the United States on al Qaeda terrorism charges.

Any split in the left comes at a critical moment in British politics, with Labour (and the Greens) also focused on containing a rising right-wing wave, most clearly signaled by the rapid ascent of the hard-right populist party, Reform UK.

A self-described “eco-populist,” Polanski, 43, was catapulted onto the national stage last fall when he secured a surprise victory in the Greens’ leadership election, beating two of the party’s four MPs to claim the top job. Before that, he was still a little-known local politician, representing the Greens in the London Assembly.

The broad brushstrokes of Polanski’s image go something like this: to his admirers, he is an antidote to the stiff technocratic tendencies of more mainstream politicians; a gifted communicator willing to adopt the bold left-wing policies Labour has largely shied away from.

To his detractors, he is vague and unable to pin down the details of his own policies.

More recently, his social media use sparked controversy after he criticized the police’s response to an antisemitic attack in north London and, in a separate incident, reposted a photo that some interpreted as threatening Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK.

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Still, under his leadership, the party has commanded national attention, building on its best general election performance when it secured four parliamentary seats in 2024. By May, the Greens’ rise seemed astronomic – they briefly polled as high as Labour and the center-right Conservatives, the two parties which have dominated British politics for decades, and enjoyed historic gains in spring local elections.

While Polanski has tried to link the climate crisis to other issues, he has largely prioritized immediate everyday concerns, such as the cost of living and suggestions of public ownership of water and other utilities, alongside other progressive initiatives like championing a wealth tax and rent controls, while also adopting a pro-Palestinian stance.

Polanski has claimed credit for pushing Labour further to the left, most recently saying his party was responsible for influencing Labour’s shifting stance on the Middle East, including the government’s recently announced sanctions on illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.

A former actor, Polanski’s strength lies in his communication. He hosts his own nightclub nights and holds weekly conversations with academics, activists and journalists on his podcast “Bold Politics” on ideas like an extreme wealth line (a proposed globally agreed limit for an individual’s net worth), re-nationalizing water companies and rejoining the European Union.

But he is prone to slip-ups too – in one disastrous interview shortly after becoming leader he seemed to confuse the national debt and deficit. Months later, he more carefully laid out his economic policy at a left-wing think tank event, though it remains “vague,” said Laura Serra, a political scientist at the London School of Economics.

“People don’t really know what they (the Greens) stand for, what they’re going to do,” she added.

While Polanski’s almost constant media presence has given him a far higher profile than previous Green leaders, analysts argue that the party’s increasing popularity has less to do with him and more to do with the shifting political climate in the UK.

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And at the same time, Green parties across Europe have become more influential, propelled by growing support among recent graduates and benefiting from “changing societal cleavages,” said James Dennison, a political scientist at the European University in Florence, who has studied the Greens for more than a decade. “The change is more rapid in the UK, and it’s exaggerated partially because of the electoral system, so it takes them longer to break through, and when they do, they go faster.”

Polanski self-consciously forms part of a wider populist trend too; he describes his approach to messaging as “substance with clickbait” and an alternative designed directly to confront the right-wing populism of Reform, and its Trump-supporting leader Nigel Farage.

“Populism is about the 99%, the vast majority… against the very, very wealthy… Trump and Farage come from the 1% and want to protect the interests of the elite,” Polanski told Bloomberg earlier this year.

This simultaneous rise of the Greens and Reform could fracture Britain’s political landscape, in which the first-past-the-post electoral system typically favors two or three major parties.

So, regardless of who wins on Thursday, the Greens even being competitive in a traditional Labour stronghold like this is indicative of how the smaller, more radical parties are increasingly challenging the mainstream.

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英国绿党领袖扎克·波兰斯基将于周四挑战政治建制派，在一次特别选举中与执政的工党争夺前首相基尔·斯塔默的席位。

波兰斯基拥有深厚的进步政策储备，并且活跃于 TikTok，这与斯塔默截然不同。斯塔默一直疏远工党的左翼，并落得个沟通生硬、效率低下的名声。

这种对比帮助波兰斯基和绿党获得了支持，成为执政的中左翼工党的有力替代选择。近年来，工党因其在福利支出、跨性别者权利和加沙战争等问题上的立场而不断流失选民。波兰斯基甚至不止一次表示，他的政党“就是为了取代工党”。

但自从斯塔默在夏季迫于党内巨大压力辞去首相职务后，这股势头已基本停滞。上个月，他辞去了国会议员职务，引发了补选。

斯塔默卸任后，一位更强大的对手出现了。现任首相安迪·伯纳姆被普遍认为是一位更优秀的政治家，更有能力吸引包括波兰斯基一直瞄准的进步派在内的广大选民。

克里斯托弗·弗隆/盖蒂图片社

因此，这次补选——在伦敦市中心的霍尔本和圣潘克拉斯选区——的结果不仅仅代表波兰斯基有可能成为国会议员。

这是自伯纳姆上任以来，绿党和工党首次直接对决，既是对新政府的第一次重大选举考验，也是对绿党能否与重振旗鼓的工党竞争的晴雨表。

如果波兰斯基周四胜选，这将是对新任首相的严厉警告，也可能预示着英国左翼已经彻底分裂。但如果他落败，工党候选人萨加尔·阿卜迪-瓦利保住席位，则表明伯纳姆成功地将进步派人士重新拉回工党，并减缓了工党的选举颓势。

在加沙战争和反犹主义问题上的立场分歧是造成此次分裂以及此次补选的核心原因。许多穆斯林选民表示，他们不会投票给工党，因为他们认为政府在加沙问题上行动不够强硬。

本周末，绿党通过了一项有争议的动议，将犹太复国主义（犹太团体有时将其定义为犹太人自决的权利）归类为种族主义的一种形式，称其为“民族主义政治计划”。

波兰斯基是犹太人，18岁时为了纪念自己的犹太血统，将原名大卫·保尔登改为波兰斯基。他没有就该动议投票，也没有在会议发言中提及此事。他自称是“反犹太复国主义者”。以色列随即禁止波兰斯基入境。

周三，英国媒体再次掀起风暴，报道称提出该动议的绿党成员与一名在美国因基地组织恐怖主义指控而被定罪的男子有友谊。

左翼的任何分裂都发生在英国政治的关键时刻，工党（和绿党）也正致力于遏制日益高涨的右翼浪潮，最明显的标志就是极右翼民粹主义政党“改革英国”的迅速崛起。

自称“生态民粹主义者”的波兰斯基现年43岁，去年秋天在绿党党魁选举中意外获胜，击败该党四名议员中的两名，一举登上全国政治舞台。在此之前，他只是一位名不见经传的地方政治人物，代表绿党在伦敦议会任职。

波兰斯基的形象大致如下：在他的仰慕者眼中，他是主流政治家僵化的技术官僚倾向的解药；他是一位才华横溢的沟通者，愿意采取工党大多回避的大胆左翼政策。

批评者认为他说话含糊不清，无法明确阐述自己政策的细节。

最近，他因批评警方对伦敦北部一起反犹太袭击事件的回应而引发争议，在另一起事件中，他转发了一张照片，一些人认为这张照片是在威胁英国改革党领袖奈杰尔·法拉奇。

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尽管如此，在他的领导下，绿党获得了全国的关注，并在2024年大选中取得了最佳成绩，赢得了四个议会席位。到5月份，绿党的崛起似乎令人瞩目——他们的民调支持率一度与工党和中右翼保守党（这两个政党几十年来一直主导着英国政坛）持平，并在春季的地方选举中取得了历史性的胜利。

虽然波兰斯基试图将气候危机与其他问题联系起来，但他主要优先考虑的是眼前的日常问题，例如生活成本，以及关于水和其他公用事业公有化的建议，同时还支持其他进步举措，例如财富税和租金管制，并采取亲巴勒斯坦的立场。

波兰斯基声称自己推动工党进一步左倾，最近他表示，他的政党影响了工党在中东问题上的立场转变，包括政府最近宣布对被占领的西岸地区以色列非法定居点实施制裁。

波兰斯基曾是一名演员，他的优势在于沟通能力。他举办自己的夜总会之夜，并在他的播客节目“大胆政治”中每周与学者、活动家和记者就一些想法展开对话，例如极端财富线（一项提议的全球公认的个人净资产上限）、水务公司国有化以及重新加入欧盟。

但他也有失言的时候——在他上任不久的一次灾难性采访中，他似乎把国债和赤字混淆了。几个月后，他在一家左翼智库的活动上更谨慎地阐述了自己的经济政策，但伦敦政治经济学院的政治学家劳拉·塞拉表示，他的政策仍然“含糊不清”。

她补充说：“人们并不真正了解他们（绿党）的立场，也不知道他们打算做什么。”

虽然波兰斯基几乎不间断地出现在媒体上，使他的知名度远高于之前的绿党领导人，但分析人士认为，该党日益增长的人气与他关系不大，而更多地与英国不断变化的政治气候有关。

卡尔·考特/盖蒂图片社

与此同时，欧洲各地的绿党影响力日益增强，这得益于应届毕业生支持率的上升，以及“社会分化的变化”。佛罗伦萨欧洲大学政治学家詹姆斯·丹尼森（James Dennison）说道，他研究绿党已有十余年。“这种变化在英国更为迅速，部分原因是由于选举制度，绿党需要更长时间才能取得突破，但一旦突破，发展速度就会更快。”

波兰斯基也自觉地融入了更广泛的民粹主义潮流；他将自己的信息传递方式描述为“有实质内容的点击诱饵”，并认为这是一种直接对抗改革党及其支持特朗普的领导人奈杰尔·法拉奇的右翼民粹主义的替代方案。

“民粹主义代表的是99%的人，绝大多数人……反对那些非常非常富有的人……特朗普和法拉奇来自1%的富人阶层，他们想要保护精英阶层的利益，”波兰斯基今年早些时候告诉彭博社。

绿党和改革党的同步崛起可能会分裂英国的政治格局，因为英国的简单多数制选举制度通常有利于两到三个主要政党。

因此，无论周四谁获胜，绿党即使在工党的传统堡垒中也能保持竞争力，这表明规模较小、更激进的政党正在日益挑战主流。