Truckers thought the worst was over. Then diesel prices doubled

The rattling whir of a diesel generator fills a corner of the truck yard.

For JD & LA Trucking, it’s the sound of business, the company’s bread and butter (… and poultry, produce and other perishables): The generator keeps refrigerated containers at the proper temperature until they are loaded onto a semi-truck and sent back out on the road.

However, that sound, those goods and those miles cost significantly more these days. Diesel fuel has been setting nominal record highs – an aftereffect of rising global oil prices as well as a supply bottleneck from refineries damaged by the wars in Ukraine and Iran.

The trucking industry and the consumer-driven US economy have ridden out energy shocks before. But the timing of this one stings for both: Truckers are still trying to find their groove after their industry’s post-pandemic downturn, while already inflation-weary Americans will likely have to swallow yet more price hikes.

“We’ve survived recessions, we’ve survived a bad economy, we survived Covid, and I want to believe we’ll survive this as well,” said Angel Diaz, co-owner of JD & LA Trucking.

“But they are scary times,” he added.

Diaz owns the 30-year-old trucking firm with his brother, Jorge. They took over the family business in October 2021, when their father passed away.

They’ve got 20 trucks hauling goods (dry and perishable alike) from the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles – the two largest and busiest in the US – to their clients’ warehouses.

On a recent Monday, Angel Diaz drove past Los Angeles-area fuel stations where diesel was selling for $8.38 per gallon.

Earlier this year, he was paying just over $5 a gallon.

Efficiency is crucial in the shipping and logistics industry, and even more so now. The routes are mapped out to ensure that not a drop of fuel goes wasted; however, there comes a point when costs must be passed on to customers or operating is no longer economical, Diaz said.

The truck yards along the Port of LA seem far thinner than they once were, he said.

“That only tells me that people are going out of business; people are selling their trucks; people are deciding to call it quits just because things are getting so expensive,” he said. “I really think there needs to be a quick resolution (to the diesel price hike) before more people decide to leave the industry, because if enough people leave, that’s going to create supply chain shortages, something I don’t think the economy can afford at all.”

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

President Donald Trump earlier this week signed an executive order aimed at easing high diesel prices by directing the Internal Revenue Service to waive penalties on red-dyed diesel and instructing cabinet departments to encourage state agencies to waive taxes and limitations on the use of the fuel that’s typically reserved for off-road use.

Truckers and industry analysts cautioned that the expansion of red-dyed diesel is not a long-term solution nor a game changer.

The US trucking industry is shaking off a nearly four-year downturn, a post-pandemic correction marked by tumbling freight rates, carrier bankruptcies , and a high-cost/tepid-volume operating environment.

The pandemic’s pendulum swing toward goods spending caused demand to spike for the transportation of those products. In turn, a flood of new companies, drivers and vehicles entered the trucking industry.

Trucking employment hit a record high in 2022, with some of the sharpest increases in long-distance freight, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics industry data that goes back to 1990.

But after the economy reopened and spending swung sharply in the direction of services and in-person experiences, freight volumes (and freight rates) shrank.

“We basically had a glut of capacity and not enough volume,” said Rob Carpenter, a CDL-holder and trucking safety consultant who writes about the industry.

Rates turned south in 2023, as did the jobs. Earlier this year, long-haul trucking employment was at a 12-year low but has since started to slowly rebound, adding jobs for six months straight as freight costs have jumped higher.

Antranik Tavitian/Bloomberg/Getty Images

In addition to the attrition, the trucking ranks have been thinned as a result of actions taken by the Trump administration, which moved to restrict the issuance and renewal of non-domiciled commercial drivers’ licenses (CDLs), enforce English language proficiency (ELP) requirements and remove thousands of training schools from its list of accredited institutions.

The Department of Transportation estimates that foreign CDL holders account for roughly 5% of the 3.4 million CDL holders in the US. Department officials say that since January 2025, 26,000 drivers have been placed out of service for failing to meet ELP requirements and enforcement actions have taken another 30,000 commercial license holders off the road.

Additionally, the administration launched the Freedom Haulers initiative, which provides incentives for military veterans to become truck drivers.

“Endangering lives and undercutting our country’s truck drivers just to protect cheap labor is an unacceptable price to pay,” Peyton Vogel, a Transportation Department spokeswoman, wrote in an email to CNN. “We will never compromise the safety of American families on our roadways.”

The administration’s rule, which affects nearly 200,000 foreign CDL holders, has been challenged by labor unions and drivers, and a case is before an appeals court in Washington, DC.

The US freight trucking industry, which has long endured high turnover rates, is in a period where driver supply has contracted and promises to shrink more as a result of the enforcement actions, said Stephen Burks, a trucker-turned economist and professor emeritus at the University of Minnesota Morris.

“A big part of long-distance trucking struggled with too much capacity causing low freight rates for three years,” Burks said. “That problem has finally eased, but the new challenge is fuel prices rising faster than freight rates can adjust upward.”

Eric Thayer/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images

Jason Miller, a supply chain management professor at Michigan State University said the trucking industry is out of equilibrium, but not to a point where there’s a structural shortage of drivers.

“We are expecting capacity (drivers) to be added over the coming months because of how strong spot rates have been,” he said, noting the short-term, one-time rates that cover a single shipment.

In the meantime, the supply-demand imbalance does make the industry more susceptible to unexpected shocks, said David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence for freight-broker Arrive Logistics.

“That’s going to keep the vulnerability of the truckload market high, should we see a demand spark, or should we see further regulation that takes large chunks of capacity (driver supply) out of the market at once,” he said.

However, such a spark appears unlikely, he added.

“You pull on the thread, and you have to believe that elevated diesel prices are only going to be additional costs to the consumer,” Spencer said. “We don’t see any reason to believe housing is going to make an immediate recovery ; so, the outlook for demand is weakening amidst the economic backdrop.”

In recent months, trucking companies and some of the major consumer brands have flagged transportation issues, notably fuel and labor, as potential pain points.

“Driver costs are going up, fuel prices are high, and it’s really tough to find capacity (drivers/trucks),” Brad Delco, chief financial officer at trucking giant J.B. Hunt, said last month at a Morgan Stanley conference, according to a FactSet transcript.

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Those higher costs and concerns are flowing through the supply chain, said Adam Josephson, a packaging industry analyst and founder of Sakonnet Research. In recent weeks, companies such as RXO Logistics, Campbell, J.M. Smucker, McCormick and others have cited higher transportation cost inflation, he said.

“Everyone is being forced to raise their prices, and obviously that eventually shows up as higher prices for consumers,” he said.

The Food Industry Association said it takes 30 to 45 days for a spike in diesel prices to trickle down to the grocery store.

Rolando Pozos, chief executive officer of Amapola Deli & Market, a small chain of Mexican grocery stores in Southern California, said he’s trying not to raise prices for his customers.

“We can see how our suppliers start adjusting prices and they put that surcharge that we all love to see – the fuel surcharge – and it’s definitely hard to swallow,” he said.

Transportation costs tend to account for a small share – typically under 5% – of the selling price of commonly purchased goods, said Miller, the Michigan State University supply chain professor.

However, sharply rising diesel prices hit far more acutely and quickly in industries such as mining, quarrying and cement mixing, as well as other materials that are key in construction. While some potential price hikes are building in the pipeline, some industries such as construction and some services could see impacts more quickly, Miller said.

High diesel prices could force companies to make hard decisions, pull back on hiring, cut short investment and slow economic activity in the process, Miller said.

“Diesel hits the consumer mostly indirectly and with a lag for a lot of products,” he said. “This is not going to start showing up fully until six or nine months from now. And that’s very different from gasoline, where people feel the effect today.”

David McNew/Getty Images

And for truck drivers, higher fuel costs and the potential for higher inflation creates a double whammy. Fuel surcharges (formal agreements that come into play when prices rise) can help soften the blow; however, drivers often have to eat the cost of higher spot prices in the interim.

“They’re citizens, too,” said David Owen, president of the National Association of Small Trucking Companies. “Not only do they get hit with the price of fuel, they get hit with the cost of blue jeans at the store or groceries at the grocery store as well.”

Angel Diaz of JD & LA acknowledges that the high prices are out of his control but mentioned his company can’t afford to leave the trucks parked.

They just have to ride it out.

“(My father would say) ‘you’ve made it through worse, and we’re going to make it through this one,’” Diaz said. “And I want to believe that. And I will do everything in my power to do so.”

卡车场一角传来柴油发电机嘎嘎作响的嗡嗡声。

对于 JD & LA 货运公司来说，这是生意兴隆的声音，是公司的命脉（……以及家禽、农产品和其他易腐品）：发电机使冷藏集装箱保持适当的温度，直到它们被装上半挂卡车并重新上路。

然而，如今同样的音效、同样的货物、同样的里程，成本都显著增加。柴油价格屡创新高——这既是全球油价上涨的后果，也是乌克兰和伊朗战争导致炼油厂受损，造成供应瓶颈的结果。

卡车运输业和以消费为主导的美国经济此前都曾经历过能源冲击。但这次的冲击时机对双方都造成了沉重打击：卡车司机仍在努力从疫情后的行业低迷中恢复过来，而早已饱受通胀困扰的美国民众可能不得不承受更多物价上涨。

“我们挺过了经济衰退，我们挺过了经济不景气，我们挺过了新冠疫情，我希望我们也能挺过这次难关，”JD & LA Trucking 的共同所有人 Angel Diaz 说。

“但这是一个令人恐惧的时代，”他补充道。

迪亚兹和他的兄弟豪尔赫共同拥有这家已有30年历史的货运公司。2021年10月，他们的父亲去世后，他们接管了家族企业。

他们有 20 辆卡车从美国最大、最繁忙的两个港口——长滩港和洛杉矶港——向客户的仓库运送货物（包括干货和易腐品）。

最近一个星期一，安吉尔·迪亚兹开车经过洛杉矶地区的加油站，那里的柴油售价为每加仑 8.38 美元。

今年早些时候，他每加仑汽油要花5美元多一点。

效率在航运和物流行业至关重要，如今更是如此。迪亚兹表示，路线规划旨在确保不浪费一滴燃料；然而，成本总会达到一定程度，必须转嫁给客户，否则运营将不再经济。

他说，洛杉矶港沿岸的货车场似乎比以前稀少得多。

“这只能说明很多人正在倒闭；很多人正在卖掉卡车；很多人因为成本太高而决定退出这个行业，”他说。“我真的认为必须尽快解决柴油价格上涨的问题，否则会有更多人退出这个行业，因为如果足够多的人退出，就会造成供应链短缺，而我认为经济根本承受不起这种局面。”

贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社

本周早些时候，唐纳德·特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，旨在缓解高昂的柴油价格。该命令指示美国国税局免除对红色柴油的罚款，并指示内阁部门鼓励州政府机构免除对通常用于非道路用途的这种燃料的税收和使用限制。

卡车司机和行业分析师警告说，扩大使用红色柴油既不是长久之计，也无法改变现状。

美国卡车运输业正在摆脱近四年的低迷状态，这是疫情后的一次调整，其特点是货运价格暴跌、承运商破产以及高成本/低销量的运营环境。

疫情期间消费支出向商品消费的转变，导致对这些商品的运输需求激增。反过来，大量新公司、司机和车辆涌入货运行业。

根据美国劳工统计局自 1990 年以来的行业数据显示，2022 年卡车运输业就业人数创历史新高，其中长途货运的增幅最为显著。

但随着经济重新开放，支出急剧转向服务和面对面体验，货运量（和货运价格）却下降了。

“我们基本上是产能过剩，但货运量不足，”持有商业驾驶执照 (CDL) 的卡车运输安全顾问罗布·卡彭特 (Rob Carpenter) 说，他撰写有关该行业的文章。

2023年，运费和就业岗位都开始下滑。今年早些时候，长途卡车运输就业人数跌至12年来的最低点，但此后开始缓慢回升，随着货运成本的上涨，就业岗位已连续六个月增加。

Antranik Tavitian/Bloomberg/Getty Images

除了人员自然流失外，卡车司机队伍也因特朗普政府采取的行动而减少，这些行动包括限制非居民商业驾驶执照 (CDL) 的发放和续期、强制执行英语语言能力 (ELP) 要求以及从其认可机构名单中移除数千所培训学校。

美国交通部估计，外国商业驾驶执照（CDL）持有者约占美国340万CDL持有者的5%。交通部官员表示，自2025年1月以来，已有2.6万名司机因未能满足就业许可计划（ELP）要求而被吊销执照，另有3万名商业驾驶执照持有者因执法行动而被禁止上路。

此外，政府还启动了“自由运输者”计划，为退伍军人成为卡车司机提供激励措施。

“为了保护廉价劳动力而危及生命、损害我国卡车司机利益，这是不可接受的代价，”交通部发言人佩顿·沃格尔在给CNN的电子邮件中写道。“我们绝不会拿美国家庭在道路上的安全冒险。”

该政府的规定影响了近 20 万名外国 CDL 持有者，受到了工会和司机的质疑，目前华盛顿特区的一家上诉法院正在审理此案。

美国货运卡车运输业长期以来人员流动率很高，目前正处于司机供应萎缩的时期，而且由于执法行动，司机供应有望进一步减少。明尼苏达大学莫里斯分校的荣誉退休教授、卡车司机出身的经济学家斯蒂芬·伯克斯表示。

伯克斯说：“过去三年，长途货运行业很大一部分都面临着运力过剩导致运费低迷的问题。这个问题最终有所缓解，但新的挑战是燃油价格上涨的速度超过了运费上涨的速度。”

Eric Thayer/洛杉矶时报/Getty Images

密歇根州立大学供应链管理教授杰森·米勒表示，卡车运输业目前处于失衡状态，但还没有到出现司机结构性短缺的地步。

“由于现货价格走强，我们预计未来几个月运力（司机）将会增加，”他说道，并指出现货价格是指涵盖单次运输的短期一次性价格。

与此同时，货运经纪公司 Arrive Logistics 的市场情报副总裁 David Spencer 表示，供需失衡确实使该行业更容易受到意外冲击。

他说：“如果需求激增，或者进一步的监管措施一次性从市场中抽走大量运力（司机供应），那么整车运输市场的脆弱性就会一直居高不下。”

但他补充说，这种火花似乎不太可能出现。

斯宾塞说：“你仔细想想，就会发现柴油价格上涨只会增加消费者的负担。我们认为住房市场短期内不会复苏；因此，在当前的经济形势下，需求前景正在减弱。”

近几个月来，货运公司和一些主要消费品牌都指出，运输问题，特别是燃料和劳动力问题，可能是潜在的痛点。

据 FactSet 的一份会议记录显示，卡车运输巨头 JB Hunt 的首席财务官 Brad Delco 上个月在摩根士丹利的一次会​​议上表示：“司机成本不断上涨，燃油价格高企，而且很难找到运力（司机/卡车）。”

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg/Getty Images

包装行业分析师、Sakonnet Research创始人亚当·约瑟夫森表示，这些上涨的成本和担忧正在整个供应链中蔓延。他说，最近几周，RXO Logistics、Campbell、JM Smucker、McCormick等公司都提到了运输成本上涨的问题。

他说：“每个人都被迫提高价格，这最终显然会反映在消费者身上，导致价格上涨。”

食品工业协会表示，柴油价格飙升需要 30 到 45 天才能传导到杂货店。

南加州一家小型墨西哥杂货店连锁店 Amapola Deli & Market 的首席执行官 Rolando Pozos 表示，他正在努力不提高顾客的商品价格。

“我们可以看到供应商开始调整价格，他们加收了我们都乐见的附加费——燃油附加费——这确实令人难以接受，”他说。

密歇根州立大学供应链教授米勒表示，运输成本通常只占常见商品售价的一小部分——通常低于 5%。

然而，柴油价格的急剧上涨对采矿、采石和水泥搅拌等行业以及其他建筑关键材料行业的影响更为严重和迅速。米勒表示，虽然一些潜在的价格上涨正在酝酿之中，但建筑业和部分服务业等行业可能会更快地受到影响。

米勒表示，高柴油价格可能会迫使企业做出艰难的决定，减少招聘，削减投资，并在此过程中减缓经济活动。

他说：“柴油对消费者的影响大多是间接的，而且很多产品的影响都会滞后显现。这种影响要到六到九个月后才会完全显现出来。这与汽油截然不同，汽油的影响人们现在就能感受到。”

David McNew/Getty Images

对于卡车司机来说，燃油成本上涨和潜在的通货膨胀加剧了他们的困境。燃油附加费（价格上涨时生效的正式协议）可以缓解这种冲击；然而，在此期间，司机往往不得不承担更高的现货价格带来的成本。

“他们也是公民，”全国小型货运公司协会主席大卫·欧文说。“他们不仅要承受燃油价格上涨的压力，还要承受商店里牛仔裤或杂货店食品杂货的价格上涨的压力。”

JD & LA 公司的 Angel Diaz 承认高昂的价格不在他的控制范围内，但他提到他的公司负担不起让卡车停在那里的损失。

他们只能熬过去。

“（我父亲会说）‘你们经历过更糟糕的事情，我们也能渡过这一关，’”迪亚兹说。“我愿意相信这一点。我会竭尽全力去做到这一点。”