It’s ‘Black August’ in Russia, but Putin is sweeping this summer’s crisis under the rug

Over the past few decades, “Black August,” or “the August curse,” has become a sort of journalistic shorthand in Russia for dramatic crises that seem to happen in the last weeks of summer .

In some respects, Black August is Russia’s rough equivalent to the “silly season” in British journalism, the late-summer lull when frivolous headlines seem to dominate while parliament is out of session and royals are on holiday – or announce surprise returns home . But Russian folk wisdom is more pessimistic: a scan of recent Russian history appears to support the belief that dramatic, Black Swan events do tend to strike in August.

Thirty-five years ago, a group of Communist hardliners led a failed putsch against Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, unleashing the centrifugal forces that ultimately led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In August 1998, a financial crisis hit Russia, causing a default on domestic debt and a collapse of the ruble. And one year later, a group of militants led an incursion into the southern Russian republic of Dagestan, kicking off the second Chechen War, a conflict that launched a political unknown, a former KGB officer named Vladimir Putin, into the top echelon of power.

Putin became Russian leader on New Year’s Eve of 1999, after a surprise handover by President Boris Yeltsin. But the new tough-guy leader was not immune from the August Curse either. One of his first major tests in office was the sinking of the Kursk, a nuclear submarine that went down with 118 sailors on board. And in August 2008, Russia went to war with neighboring Georgia, showing the belligerent new face of Putin’s foreign policy.

The past summer in Russia has also been shaping up as a bleak season for Putin’s Russia. Progress on the contested front lines in Ukraine by Russian troops has been scant; the skies over Russian cities have been blackened by Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and Amazon-style distribution centers; and long lines at the fuel pumps and rumors of a fresh wave of mobilization have Russians grumbling.

Is this another Black August?

Exiled Russian commentator Ilya Varlamov posted his thoughts on that question this week, saying recurring historical disasters in August were “a coincidence, of course.”

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But, Varlamov continued, “many Russians await August with apprehension. Especially now, when the country is truly in crisis. … The fuel crisis has returned, prices are rising and have no intention of stopping, the ruble is falling, elections are coming and God knows what else.”

Varlamov also noted the recently publicized remarks made by a top Russian economist, who warned that Moscow was facing a “social crisis” and “losing both the technological and economic competition globally” and would not win a war of attrition against a Ukraine backed by the West.

Even loyal, pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets noted the traditional August anxieties in Russia, though it turned to astrology for guidance. “A lunar eclipse is set to occur this month; while not the most massive one, it will take place opposite Pluto – a planet associated with catastrophes,” the article read.

“This could trigger social shifts, political changes in relations with neighbors, and domestic unrest. Incidents of accidents, heightened anxiety, and breakdowns – including nervous disorders – may increase.”

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But amid the uneasy speculation, Putin has projected his usual aura of confidence.

In remarks Wednesday on infrastructure and development projects, the Kremlin leader acknowledged the economic damage inflicted by Ukraine by strikes on the warehouses of e-commerce giant Wildberries, without naming the company – but downplayed their long-term impact.

“It goes without saying that these attacks will not have, do not cause and cannot bring about any critical consequences,” he said. “True, they do cause harm – this much is obvious, and we understand this, we see this, and we are aware of it.”

The Russian president said those logistics facilities would be built back with government support. But the war in Ukraine has been coming ever closer to home for many Russians, hitting them squarely in the pocketbooks.

Ukraine is also weathering domestic crisis in wartime. Earlier this week, recently ousted Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov called for wartime elections, presenting a fresh political challenge to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Whatever the merits of Fedorov’s arguments, the move potentially presents a fresh talking point to Putin, who has publicly and repeatedly cast doubt on Zelensky’s legitimacy as president.

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Therein lies the contrast.

Zelensky’s five-year term was originally expected to end in 2024, but elections in Ukraine have been postponed under martial law imposed following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. And the government reshuffles in Kyiv, as well as major anti-government protests, show that civil society and democratic processes are still alive and well in Ukraine.

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The same can hardly be said for Russia. On Monday, a court in that country convicted opposition politician Lev Shlosberg to 11 years in prison for opposing the war in Ukraine. Russia’s Supreme Court also barred Shlosberg’s party, Yabloko, from appearing on the ballot in upcoming parliamentary elections.

Russia’s domestic political opposition, then, has been effectively throttled since Putin launched his war on Ukraine. As the American author Ernest Hemingway would doubtless recognize, the stifling of civil society seemed to happen slowly, then all at once with the death of jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny in February 2024. Navalny’s fatal journey to an Arctic prison colony also began on an August day in 2020, when he fell ill from nerve-agent poisoning on a return flight to Moscow from Siberia.

Coincidence or not, the month of August has been a punishing one for Russia.

在过去的几十年里，“黑色八月”或“八月诅咒”已成为俄罗斯新闻界的一种简写，用来指代似乎发生在夏季最后几周的重大危机。

在某些方面，“黑色八月”大致相当于英国新闻界的“新闻淡季”，指的是夏末的平静期，此时议会休会，王室成员休假——或者宣布令人意外的回国——而一些无关紧要的新闻标题似乎占据了主导地位。但俄罗斯的民间智慧则更为悲观：纵观俄罗斯近代史，似乎印证了这样一种观点：戏剧性的“黑天鹅”事件确实往往会在八月发生。

35年前，一群共产主义强硬派发动了一场针对苏联领导人米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫的失败政变，由此引发的离心力最终导致了苏联的解体。1998年8月，俄罗斯遭遇金融危机，导致国内债务违约和卢布暴跌。一年后，一群武装分子入侵俄罗斯南部共和国达吉斯坦，引发了第二次车臣战争。这场冲突将一位政治素人——前克格勃官员弗拉基米尔·普京——推上了权力巅峰。

1999年除夕夜，普京在叶利钦总统出人意料的权力交接后，正式成为俄罗斯领导人。然而，这位强硬的新领导人也未能幸免于“八月魔咒”。他上任后的首批重大考验之一便是“库尔斯克”号核潜艇沉没，艇上118名水兵全部遇难。2008年8月，俄罗斯与邻国格鲁吉亚开战，展现了普京好战外交政策的新面貌。

对普京领导下的俄罗斯而言，过去的这个夏天也显得格外黯淡。俄军在乌克兰争议前线的进展微乎其微；乌克兰军队对炼油厂和类似亚马逊的配送中心发动袭击，导致俄罗斯城市上空乌云密布；加油站前排起的长队以及新一轮动员的传言，都让俄罗斯民众怨声载道。

今年八月又将是黑色八月吗？

流亡的俄罗斯评论员伊利亚·瓦尔拉莫夫本周就此问题发表了自己的看法，称八月份反复发生的历史灾难“当然只是巧合”。

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但瓦尔拉莫夫继续说道：“许多俄罗斯人忧心忡忡地等待着八月的到来。尤其是在国家真正陷入危机的当下……燃油危机卷土重来，物价上涨且没有停止的迹象，卢布贬值，选举即将到来，天知道还会发生什么。”

瓦尔拉莫夫还注意到一位俄罗斯顶级经济学家最近发表的言论，这位经济学家警告说，莫斯科正面临“社会危机”，并且“在全球技术和经济竞争中都处于劣势”，而且不会赢得与西方支持的乌克兰之间的消耗战。

就连忠于克里姆林宫的《莫斯科共青团员报》也注意到了俄罗斯传统的八月焦虑情绪，不过它选择从占星术中寻求指引。文章写道：“本月将发生一次月食；虽然并非规模最大的一次，但它将发生在冥王星——一颗与灾难相关的行星——的对面。”

“这可能会引发社会变革、邻里关系的政治变化以及国内动荡。事故发生率、焦虑情绪加剧以及包括神经系统疾病在内的各种精神崩溃事件可能会增加。”

奥尔加·马尔采娃/法新社/盖蒂图片社

但在各种不安的猜测中，普京依然展现出他一贯的自信风采。

周三，克里姆林宫领导人在就基础设施和发展项目发表讲话时，承认乌克兰因袭击电子商务巨头 Wildberries 的仓库而遭受经济损失，但他没有点名该公司，而是淡化了这些袭击的长期影响。

“毋庸置疑，这些袭击不会、也不会造成、更不可能造成任何严重后果，”他说。“的确，它们会造成伤害——这一点显而易见，我们理解这一点，我们看到了这一点，我们也意识到了这一点。”

俄罗斯总统表示，将在政府的支持下重建这些后勤设施。但对许多俄罗斯人来说，乌克兰战争的影响越来越近，直接波及到他们的切身利益。

乌克兰在战时也面临着国内危机。本周早些时候，刚刚被解职的国防部长米哈伊洛·费多罗夫呼吁举行战时选举，这给乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基带来了新的政治挑战。

无论费多罗夫的论点是否合理，此举都可能给普京提供一个新的谈资，普京曾公开且反复地质疑泽连斯基作为总统的合法性。

Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool/Getty Images

区别就在于此。

泽连斯基的五年任期原定于2024年结束，但由于俄罗斯在2022年全面入侵后实施了戒严令，乌克兰的选举已被推迟。基辅的政府改组以及大规模的反政府抗议活动表明，乌克兰的公民社会和民主进程仍然充满活力。

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但俄罗斯的情况则截然不同。周一，该国一家法院以反对乌克兰战争为由，判处反对派政治家列夫·什洛斯伯格11年监禁。俄罗斯最高法院还禁止什洛斯伯格所在的“亚博卢”党参加即将举行的议会选举。

因此，自普京发动对乌克兰的战争以来，俄罗斯国内的政治反对派实际上已被扼杀。正如美国作家欧内斯特·海明威无疑会意识到的那样，公民社会的扼杀似乎是缓慢发生的，但随着被监禁的反对派领导人阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼于2024年2月去世，这一切突然爆发。纳瓦尔尼被送往北极监狱的致命旅程也始于2020年8月的一天，当时他在从西伯利亚返回莫斯科的航班上因神经毒剂中毒而病倒。

不管是不是巧合，八月对俄罗斯来说都是一个艰难的月份。